DFS Alerts
Smyly Face
Others have already written up about how good of a spot this is for Drew Smyly, so I won’t rehash the matchup, or the cheap price tag, or how good he’s recently been. Let’s talk game theory. From a cash game perspective, I expect him to be very popular. On two-pitcher sites, I think you eat the chalk in cash games and use him so that you don’t fall behind if he has another strong game. On one-pitcher sites like FanDuel, I much prefer using Justin Verlander in cash games if you can get to him, but he’s expensive and I suspect if people can’t, they will pivot down to Smyly. I think stacking AGAINST chalk Drew Smyly is a fine leverage play in GPPs, but for cash games, I suspect he’ll be so popular that the argument for using him has more to do with his expected ownership.
Reverse-Splits Hitter Meets Reverse-Splits Pitcher
I like the Cleveland Indians righties today, especially Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes. Puig is especially appealing at his price point and batting order spot. His opponent, Jaime Baria, has shown signs of being a reverse-splits pitching, meaning he’s a right-hander but struggles more against righties. On the season, Baria is allowing a .392 wOBA to righties compared to a .323 wOBA to lefties. On the flipside, Yasiel Puig has also shown signs of being a reverse-splits hitter. Despite being right-handed, Puig has shown more power once again this season against right-handed pitching, owning a .223 ISO compared to a .205 ISO versus lefties. The same can be said of teammate Franmil Reyes, who has his 24 of his 27 home runs this season against righties. Reyes profiles as a better GPP option, but I like Puig in all formats.
Slugger In Potential Smash Spot
I like picking on Reynaldo Lopez and his .375 wOBA allowed to lefties. With Bryce Harper and the Phillies in town, I’m going to keep using these Philadelphia bats and hope they can take advantage of this matchup with Lopez. Harper blasted a home run last night and has amazingly been almost splits-neutral this season, having a wRC+ of 115 against righties and 120 against lefties. I like him in all formats.
Yu Darvish has a 30.4% K-BB and 2.93 SIERA over past 30 days
It’s mostly been an up and down season for Darvish; he’s posted a 4.46 ERA, 4.06 xFIP and 4.19 SIERA with a 27.6 K%, 10.0 BB%, 12.2% SwStr and 45.6% GB rate. He’s also allowed a .311 xwOBA, 7.4% barrel rate and 87.4 MPH aEV in what has been a fine season but not nearly a dominant one like we’ve seen from Darvish in the past. Over the past 30 days, Darvish has thrown the ball really well with a 32.6% K rate, 2.2% BB rate, 2.25 ERA and 2.93 SIERA with a .254 xwOBA allowed. Darvish gets a matchup at home vs. the Brewers this afternoon, who have been roughly average with a 98 wRC+ and relatively high 25% K rate on the year vs. RHP. The Brewers have been a bit worse on the road, as they have just a 90 wRC+ in away games compared to a 104 wRC+ in home games. WeatherEdge (available to premium subscribers) is also really liking this game for pitchers, projecting a sharp decrease in home runs and subsequently ERA. Darvish has nice upside in this matchup at home and will cost just $8.3k on Fanduel and $9k on Draftkings. The Brewers currently have a 4.11 implied line vs. Darvish and the Cubs.
Cheap Power Against SP With Historically Wide Platoon Splits
Julio Teheran is magically coming out unscathed this year despite close to a 40% FB/HH rate and a SIERA nearly 2 runs higher than his ERA. He’s historically been much poorer versus lefties and the Reds will be putting out 5 today, none with a DK salary higher than $4100. VanMeter sticks out as a potential cash OF play and Dietrich could be a good GPP power one-off at 2B. With the stack price around $20k, a Reds 5-man is definitely viable in large-field GPPs at what is currently projected to be only 5% ownership.
Other tagged players: Derek Dietrich
Affordable Value Arm
The prospects of Smyly turning things around with a new team are certainly there, especially since he is now pitching for a playoff contender. I don’t expect the Phillies to be able to pull a Houston-level pitching turnaround with Smyly, but there is potential here. Over the last few weeks, the White Sox offense has been flat out abysmal. They do have Eloy Jimenez back now — and I will say that I really like Jimenez as a GPP value play if you are looking for leverage by fading Smyly. Otherwise, we can expect Smyly to be a popular value pick on the mound today. He has been effective in his first two starts as a member of his new team, allowing just one total run over 13 innings with a 13/3 K/BB ratio in those outings. Remember, Smyly was once a highly touted prospect, so this isn’t coming out of nowhere. Given the matchup and change of scenery, I like Smyly as my preferred value arm on the slate. There’s a nice combination of safety and upside given the matchup today.
Sunday's Elite Ace
Maybe Verlander can help the Astros make history by throwing back-to-back no-hitters! While that is obviously unlikely, this is still a great spot for Verlander. Since the All Star break, the Mariners rank 25th in the league in team wOBA and ISO, and they also have the third highest team strikeout rate in baseball. Meanwhile, Verlander owns a 2.73 ERA, a SIERA and xFIP in the low threes, and an elite 33.7% strikeout rate. The massive strikeouts give him a great floor in this matchup, while the upside is obvious. The other aces have less appealing matchups, and that helps to make Verlander the clear #1 option on this Sunday slate. This is a “don’t get cute” spot for me.
Affordable Cleanup Hitter
Teheran’s splits are more neutral than usual in 2019, but the underlying data still supports his career trends, as Teheran has allowed a 42% hard contact rate to LHBs in 2019. For his career, he has allowed a .335 wOBA and 35% hard contact rate to LHBs compared to a .270 wOBA and 30% hard contact rate to RHBs. Expect Cincinnati to roll three lefties in Winker, Votto, and VanMeter in the middle of their order. I have DFS interest in both Winker and VanMeter, and I have marked the latter as a core play this afternoon. He has impressed in a limited sample with a .383 wOBA and a .219 ISO against right-handed pitching. VanMeter also still carries a fairly reasonable price on all DFS sites.
Bo Knows... Baseball?
The Orioles are using some combination platter of bad pitchers today. Their rotation is bad. Their bullpen is bad. Whoever they throw out there today will be bad, and most of those pitchers will be throwing from the right side. The Orioles rank last in the league with a 5.58 ERA this year. Toronto owns one of the highest implied team totals on the slate at nearly six runs today, and they are one of my favorite offenses to target. Bo Bichette is hitting over .400 since taking over as the new leadoff hitter, and he might get five at-bats as the leadoff man for a road team. I’ve tagged him as a core option this afternoon.
Crushing the Lefties
This Houston team can crush lefties, and the lineup is viable from top to bottom. You can certainly include one or two Astros in any cash game build, and they are an elite GPP stack. In terms of trying to find an individual top bat, I’ll side with Bregman as my favorite play, but we are largely splitting hairs among him, Altuve, and Springer. Bregman owns a .390 wOBA and .317 ISO against LHP this season, and he has nearly as many walks as strikeouts. He’s also slightly more affordable than the others on most sites, so I will give Bregman the ever so slight edge as my favorite bat today.
SP2 In Good Spot
Drew Smyly is in a good spot against the White Sox. The White sox in the last month are 1st in strikeout rate, 30th in ISO, and 30th in wOBA. In Smyly’s last 4 games his strikeout rate has gone up to 27% with a 12.3% swinging strike rate. Smyly is cheap with a great matchup, so I really like this play in GPPs.
Top GPP Arm To Spend Up For
Caleb Smith gets a great matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have struggled this year to left handed pitchers, ranking 1st in strikeout rate at 26.8%. On this slate Smith is both 2nd in strikeout rate at 31.2% and swinging strike rate at 14.2%. Smith is in a great pitchers ball park with the strikeout upside you want in GPPs.
Sneaky One Off Bat
Hunter Dozier is a one off I really like today against Jake Odorizzi. Dozier this year has been really good, hitting righties with a .269 ISO, .394 wOBA, 47% fly ball rate, and a 41% hard hit rate. Odorizzi in 3 of his last 6 games has given up multiple home run games. He also is giving up a 46% fly ball rate and 42% hard hit rate to right handed bats. This play could go overlooked, especially if Odorizzi gets some ownership today in tournaments.
Top Stack
The Houston Astros are my favorite stack on the slate going up against the lefty Tommy Milone. Milone is giving up a .240 ISO, 47% fly ball rate, and a 37% hard hit rate to right handed hitters. Houston as a team this year is 2nd in ISO, 1st in wOBA, and has the second lowest strikeout rate to left handed pitchers. The four guys I definitely want in my stack are Bregman, Altuve, Springer, and Correa.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman Andrelton Simmons scratched Saturday; David Fletcher replaces
Simmons has been scratched from the Los Angeles Angels original confirmed lineup and will not start in the Saturday’s matchup against the Minnesota Twins due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by David Fletcher, who will now play shortstop and slot into the leadoff spot in the order, which shuffles quite a few players around in the Angels batting order but, most notably, slides Luis Rengifo all the way down to ninth, respectively. Therefore, be sure to double-check the Starting Lineups page for the updated lineup as Los Angeles faces off against right-hander Adam Plutko on the road this evening.
As reported by: Mike DiGiovanna via Twitter Other tagged players: David Fletcher