DFS Alerts
Nice Upside on a Bad Team
Justin Smoak is a pretty good professional hitter. The problem is he’s still playing for the Toronto Blue Jays who just can’t seem to put it together at the plate. At any rate, despite a somewhat tough matchup, Smoak is still in play here due the the pricing inefficiencies across the industry. He does a lot of his damage from the left side of the plate, and while he may not have any baserunners aboard I do think he could send one out of the park today. The lineup won’t be pretty, but Smoak should be the lone bright spot in an otherwise uneventful outing for the Blue Jays.
Still Cheap Across the Industry
Marcus Stroman is exactly what we know him to be; an extreme groundball pitcher with a little strikeout ability. There’s a myth out there that you can’t take pitchers against the Tampa Bay Rays, and i’m looking to defy that today with Stroman. He is the de-facto SP2 in my opinion and should be able to get through 6 innings without major problems. I’m definitely not saying that he doesn’t give up a run or 2, but at his price tag he should get you the points you need to pay it off with ease. Don’t buy into the myth, buy into Stroman at this cheap price tag.
Start of OAK-TEX will be delayed due to rain Saturday
The start of the matchup between the Oakland Athletics and Texas Rangers on Saturday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Rangers have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. Since starting pitchers from this contest aren’t likely to be heavily targeted options in daily fantasy formats, the late start obviously doesn’t do much to add to their overall fantasy appeal, but as Kevin Roth detailed in his updated forecast, hitters from this game are still far from safe given the legitimate chance of a postponement.
As reported by: Levi Weaver via Twitter
Cheap SP Option on a SP-starved Slate
There aren’t many good pitching options at all Saturday night. If you’re looking to save salary, Jefry Rodriguez is an option at a very affordable price across the industry. Rodriguez isn’t a good pitcher by any measure, but gets a good matchup with multiple factors working in his favor. He gets to face a bad Royals team that was the 23rd ranked offense last year vs. RHP with a wRC+ of 91. Rodriguez will have the platoon advantage vs. 5 of 9 Royals hitters, which is important given his massive splits (.297 wOBA vs. RHB, .381 wOBA vs. LHB in his career). He also has nice K upside for his price as Steamer projects him at an 8.34 K/9 for 2019. Game time temp will be around 55 in pitcher-friendly Kauffman stadium with the wind blowing in from left. The Royals have a 4.42 implied line vs. Rodriguez and the Indians tonight.
Ain't No Rain In Mexico
As of 6pm ET, I’ve removed the Core tags for the players in Texas. I still think they are playable in tournaments, but the risk has gotten too high there to call them core plays. I’ll shift the action to the Cardinals-Reds game, where the Reds outfield is filled with bargains. Jesse Winker leads off with his elite plate skills (more walks than strikeouts vs RHP since last season) and 44% hard hit rate.
Dodgers Stack a Good Bet vs. Davies
There are plenty of great options for stacks tonight, and the Dodgers are no exception. Zach Davies is normally a decent pitcher, but has looked off in 2019 despite the low 1.69 ERA. Known as a control guy, Davies has posted an ugly 5.06 BB/9 and a K-BB% of just 2.1%, a 5.90 xFIP, all while showing a fastball that’s almost 2 MPH slower (down to 88.3 MPH in 2019). He won’t have much margin for error tonight facing a hot Dodgers lineup that can chase any RHP even in a pitcher’s environment at Dodger stadium. Cody Bellinger is on fire to start the year with a .557 xwOBA, 2nd in the league only to Mike Trout, but has an inflated price as a result. Kike Hernandez (.382 xwOBA in 2019) has made a nice transition to being an everyday player in 2019 and hits 5th. A.J. Pollock might be the best value of the bunch, leading off for the Dodgers and costing just $3.8k on DK.
Other tagged players: Cody Bellinger, Enrique Hernandez, Justin Turner, Corey Seager, Max Muncy 'Stros in Good Spot vs. King Felix
The Astros face Felix Hernandez in Seattle Saturday night and have an implied total of 4.99, which feels low given the matchup. Felix hasn’t shown any signs of halting his decline in 2019, which has seem him post an ugly .356 xwOBA against and 5.10 ERA since 2017. Felix has been especially bad vs. LHB with a .378 xwOBA allowed since 2017 compared to .339 vs. RHB. Michael Brantley (.379 xwOBA vs. RHP in 2018), Jose Altuve (.347), George Springer (.336), Carlos Correa (.301) and Yuli Gurriel (.283) should make up the top 5 of the order. All will be priced in the mid $4k range on Draftkings besides Gurriel ($3.6k. Josh Reddick (.298) figures to be the best value play at just $3.4k. Carlos Correa had a rough 2018 but seems to have regained form with a .375 xwOBA to start 2019 and can be had with a slight discount across the industry. Jose Altuve has 5 home runs in his last 4 games and has an xwOBA of .397 in 2019.
Other tagged players: Michael Brantley, George Springer, Carlos Correa, Josh Reddick, Yulieski Gurriel, Felix Hernandez D-Backs in a Good Spot vs. Strahm
Until Matt Strahm figures it out, we should continue to stack bats against him. He’s managed just 7.2 IP over 2 starts with a horrendous 7.04 ERA / 7.23 xFIP, a K-BB% of -2.6 and a hard contact % of 65.5(!) . His fastball velocity is down over 2 MPH since last year and he doesn’t look comfortable at all on the bump. Ketel Marte (.370 xwOBA vs. LHP in 2018), Adam Jones (.324), Christian Walker (.319), Wilmer Flores (.304) and David Peralta (.302) make up the top 5 bats in the D-backs order and can all be had for $4.1k or less on Draftkings. Christian Walker (.402 xwOBA in 2019) and Adam Jones (.380) have started the year off particularly hot. Wilmer Flores (.244 xwOBA in ’19) has not started off well, but is batting 3rd at just $3.7k. The D-backs have an implied line of 4.42 vs. Strahm and the Padres.
Other tagged players: Christian Walker, David Peralta, Wilmer Flores, Ketel Marte Obvious Value in CIN Lineup
The Reds face Adam Wainwright tonight and have an implied total of 5.14 with plenty of value plays in their lineup. Wainwright has not been good since 2015, though he did have a decent start his last time out vs. the Padres on 4/7. Still, he has a track record of mediocrity since 2016 (4.76 ERA, 4.18 xFIP, .335 wOBA allowed since ’16) and we should continue to target him. Joey Votto (.418 xwOBA vs. RHP in 2018), Jesse Winker (.385), Yasiel Puig (.379), Eugenio Suarez (.358) and Scott Schebler (.338) make up the top 5 hitters in the Reds’ lineup and are all great, affordable options. Derek Dietrich (.310) and Tucker Barnhart (.305) are also in play but further down in the order. Barnhart has seen the ball well so far in 2019 with a .373 xwOBA, highest of all Reds’ bats in their lineup today. Puig (.262 xwOBA in 2019) has not had the same success to start the year, but as a result can be had at a discount.
Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Yasiel Puig, Eugenio Suarez, Derek Dietrich, Scott Schebler, Tucker Barnhart, Adam Wainwright Cheap Bat, Nice Spot, Struggling Pitcher
Wilmer Flores will probably garner a bit of ownership today mainly because of his affordability across the industry. I am more inclined to roster him because of the struggles of Strahm and the possibility of several RBI opportunities. Strahm’s batted ball numbers to begin this season are astronomical and I am willing to take Flores in a nice platoon spot here. I am not making the home run guarantee, but he should be in line for nice fantasy production whether it leaves the yard or not.
Brandon Belt (neck) scratched Saturday; Pablo Sandoval replaces
Belt has been scratched from the San Francisco Giants original confirmed lineup and will not start in Saturday’s matchup against the Colorado Rockies due to neck stiffness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Pablo Sandoval, who will now play first base and slot into the sixth spot in the order, which bumps Evan Longoria up one batting position to fifth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Giants lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Kyle Freeland at home this afternoon.
As reported by: Henry Schulman via Twitter Early Season Salary Drops
I’m going to add a couple options to the core plays outside of Texas in case that game becomes unplayable with the rain. Yasiel Puig has started off cold, but that has given him a steep discount based on his longterm skills. This game is in a favorable ballpark and Adam Wainwright is just not the pitcher he used to be. Puig is not going to carry a .217 BABIP, which looks especially fluky given his 26% line drives.
KC STACK
There are a few good spots to stack up tonight, but one that i feel may come in a little under the radar is the Royals stack. Jeffery Rodriguez got called up from triple A for the spot start. Rodriguez struggled last year especially to left handed batters. in 112 plate appearances to lefties he had a 10% strikeout rate and had a walk rate of almost 20%. In a pitchers ball park a’lot of people don’t love stacking teams, but the matchup is good so I like it in GPPs. I will be targeting Mondesi, Gordon, O’Hearn and Dozier in my stacks.
KC STACK
There are a few good spots to stack up tonight, but one that i feel may come in a little under the radar is the Royals stack. Jeffery Rodriguez got called up from triple A for the spot start. Rodriguez struggled last year especially to left handed batters. in 112 plate appearances to lefties he had a 10% strikeout rate and had a walk rate of almost 20%. In a pitchers ball park a’lot of people don’t love stacking teams, but the matchup is good so I like it in GPPs. I will be targeting Mondesi, Gordon, O’Hearn and Dozier in my stacks.
KC STACK
There are a few good spots to stack up tonight, but one that i feel may come in a little under the radar is the Royals stack. Jeffery Rodriguez got called up from triple A for the spot start. Rodriguez struggled last year especially to left handed batters. in 112 plate appearances to lefties he had a 10% strikeout rate and had a walk rate of almost 20%. In a pitchers ball park a’lot of people don’t love stacking teams, but the matchup is good so I like it in GPPs. I will be targeting Mondesi, Gordon, O’Hearn and Dozier in my stacks.