DFS Alerts
KC STACK
There are a few good spots to stack up tonight, but one that i feel may come in a little under the radar is the Royals stack. Jeffery Rodriguez got called up from triple A for the spot start. Rodriguez struggled last year especially to left handed batters. in 112 plate appearances to lefties he had a 10% strikeout rate and had a walk rate of almost 20%. In a pitchers ball park a’lot of people don’t love stacking teams, but the matchup is good so I like it in GPPs. I will be targeting Mondesi, Gordon, O’Hearn and Dozier in my stacks.
A Great Matchup
Matt Carpenter is a bat I want in tournaments tonight. He gets Tanner Roark on the mound who has drastic splits in his first couple starts. I know its very small sample but you cant ignore the fact that this season Roark gives up almost 44% hard contact and fly ball rate to Left handed batters. He also has a 316 ISO and a 509 wOBA to Lefties. People are down on Carpenter after the slow start and his price is also down across most sites as well. I will definitely be using him in this matchup in GPPs.
One of the Hottest hitters in baseball
Pete Alonso has one of the hottest bats in the MLB right now. In his last 5 starts Alonso has 8 hits, 5 Home runs, and 10 runs batted in. He gets to face off against lefty Sean Newcomb who has had a really tough time striking out right handed batters this season. We obviously have a very small sample with Alonso, but to left handed pitchers he has a 667 ISO with 639 wOBA. He is one of my favorite overall plays in GPPs.
My Tourney Pitcher
Kelly is someone who interest me in GPPs tonight. The padres are a team full of right handed bats and even though their lineup is better than in years past Kelly has shown the ability to limit damage to righties. he is giving up only 111 ISO and 189 wOBA to right handed bats. The strikeout percentage is around 23% with his walk rate at 4%. This slate does not have very many good options at pitcher But I think Kelly is one with some upside in GPPs.
Choose Wisely
The Rangers face the low strikeouts and high fly balls of Marco Estrada. While Joey Gallo is the obvious home run threat here, his boom or bust style leans more to the bust side with the extreme fly ball style of Estrada. I’d prefer to save the salary and get to the top of the lineup with Shin-Soo Choo, who has a much stronger history against fly ball pitchers and has lower strikeouts will keeping the same type of patience as we see from Gallo.
Another High Total
The Cardinals-Reds game rivals the game in Texas with a high total and two good offenses in a good park against pitchers with below average strikeouts. Matt Carpenter’s hard hit fly ball style plays perfectly in Cincinnati, and if Tanner Roark doesn’t want to throw him strikes, then he’ll be on base to score. Plate skills for cash games with power upside for tournaments at too low a salary. This game is being played in Mexico, where the elevation should make this a hitters environment.
Carp Fishing
Matt Carpenter is wayyyyy too cheap for a favorable matchup in a strong hitting environment. The Cardinals lefty has dominated right handed pitching throughout the course of his career with a 139 wRC+ and .205 ISO. Carpenter should have no problem putting the ball in play against Roark who has posted a below average 19% strikeout rate for his career.
Fool Me Once
A lot of us got burned by Rougned Odor’s late scratch on Friday night but I’m willing to forgive the Rangers second basemen if he’s in the lineup on Saturday night. Odor has a similarly favorable matchup tonight against the fly balling Marco Estrada and he’s a strong way to access power (.212 ISO vs RHP) for cheap in a favorable hitting environment.
Good Price, Good Hitting Environment
Once salary is factored in, Puig rates as one of the top overall hitters of Saturday’s main slate. Saturday’s game between the Cardinals and Reds will be played in Mexico at Estadio Monterrey which projects as one of the best hitting environments in baseball due to a myriad of factors including high altitude and shallow fences. Adam Wainwright is no longer a pitcher to avoid targeting, especially in a favorable hitting environment, as the Cardinal’s veteran has posted a SIERA north of 4.3 each of the past three seasons.
The Place To Be, Hopefully
If the weather holds up enough for nine innings, this Oakland-Texas game is the obvious first place for bats on this slate. Khris Davis is the Oakland bat you want, but to save some salary and get in play with this lineup, Kendrys Morales is affordable on all sites. The Rangers Adrian Sampson has no strikeout ability to speak of, while Morales continues to hit the ball hard against right-handed pitching, 43.3% since the start of 2018.
Chalk SP1
Maaaan, chalk SP1 has been bad so far this season. Still, I’m not sure how you could possibly fade Verlander who projects as Saturday’s top pitcher on the main slate by a wide margin – Derek Carty’s projection system, The BAT, has Verlander projected as the top starting pitcher by 12+ points on FanDuel and 8+ points on DraftKings. The Mariners have been one of the top offenses to start the season but they do have some strikeouts in their lineup against right handed pitching.
The Lone Ace
The pitching landscape is pretty clear tonight. Justin Verlander is miles ahead of the next closest options, in terms of skill set, salary, and also likely ownership. Even with the way Seattle is playing, Verlander is so much better than every other pitcher on this slate that I can’t make a case for a cash game fade. The salary makes it not necessary to be all-in for tournaments, but you certainly want him where you can get him.
Pineda a Great Option on Early Slate
Michael Pineda has had no problem shaking off the rust so far in 2019 with a 2.00 ERA / 3.25 xFIP and 25% K-BB. Pineda has always been talented (career 3.33 xFIP / 3.38 SIERA and 18.9% K-BB) but his ERA (4.02 for his career) has always seemed to lag behind his peripherals. Perhaps he just needed a change of scenery. Pineda is extremely affordable across the industry Saturday and faces a weak Tigers lineup that has an implied total of just 3.35 runs. The Tigers have just 2 batters that were above a .310 xwOBA vs. RHP in 2018 and struck out at a 23% clip vs. RHP as a team last year. They currently have a 24th ranked .288 xwOBA to start 2019. Also working in Pineda’s favor is that he has been slightly better at home with a .294 xwOBA against in home starts versus a .303 xwOBA on the road since 2015.
Rougned Odor (knee) scratched Friday; Patrick Wisdom replaces
Odor has been scratched from the Texas Rangers original confirmed lineup and will not start in Friday’s matchup against the Oakland Athletics due to a sore right knee. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Patrick Wisdom, who will now play first base and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which bumps Logan Forsythe all the way up to the two-hole and slides Isiah Kiner-Falefa up one batting position to seventh, respectively. However, the remainder of the Rangers lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Mike Fiers at home this evening.
As reported by: Levi Weaver via Twitter
Affordable Late Slate Stack for Friday Night
Chad Bettis is a pitcher we can target whether he’s at Coors or not. Since 2015 he has a career xwOBA allowed of .329, but owns a .336 xwOBA on the road. He owns reverse splits (.343 xwOBA vs. RHB since 2015, .314 vs. LHB) and actually does a nice job keeping the ball on the ground (49.7% career GB rate) but allows too much contact (career 16.3% K rate). The Giants don’t mash RHP but they do have plenty of value bats. Joe Panik (.315 xwOBA vs. RHP last year), Brandon Belt (.355), Evan Longoria (.306) and Brandon Crawford (.311) are all middle of the order bats tonight that can be had for $4k or less on Draftkings. Steven Duggar (.246 xwOBA vs. RHP last year) is leading off (why, Bochy?) and is intriguing given that it’s hard to find leadoff guys at just $3.6k. The Giants have a 4.24 implied run total vs. Bettis and the Rox tonight.
Other tagged players: Steven Duggar, Joe Panik, Evan Longoria, Brandon Crawford, Chad Bettis