DFS Alerts
Cheap Leadoff Option in Nice Spot
D.J. LeMahieu will lead it off this afternoon for the Yanks vs. Carlos Rodon. Carlos Rodon has generated some hype early on in 2019 and is certainly talented, but he’s not someone we need to be shying away from until further notice. Rodon is still walking 4 batters per 9 and is far from polished. LeMahieu has made a great transition to the Bronx so far in 2019 with a scorching 187 wRC+, and is a career 105 wRC+ hitter vs. LHP. The Yankees have a solid implied total of 5.23 so LeMahieu should certainly see a good amount of plate appearances and run scoring/RBI chances. LeMahieu is just $3.9k on Draftkings and $3.7k on Fanduel in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium on Sunday.
Other tagged players: Carlos Rodon
Cheap, Likely Contrarian Arm
While certainly not a safe play today, it is worth considering Jose Urena in GPPs this afternoon. Urena gets the start at home vs. the Phillies, where he’s been slightly better for his career (.318 xwOBA at home since 2016, .359 xwOBA away). Urena will have the platoon advantage against 5 hitters, important given his splits (.303 xwOBA vs. RHB since 2016, .353 xwOBA vs. LHB). Without J.T. Realmuto in the lineup, the Phillies will have just 3 batters who had an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .315 last year (Harper, Hoskins, McCutchen) and their lineup isn’t as scary as it may seem. Also working in Urena’s favor is pitching in arguably the best pitcher’s park in baseball, and a pitcher friendly umpire in Ryan Additon. At just $5.7k on Draftkings, Urena won’t have to do much to hit value. The Phillies have a 4.77 implied line against him and the Marlins on Sunday.
Discounted Ace In Potential Rebound Spot
This isn’t a great individual matchup for Max Scherzer as the Pirates have K’d more against lefties than righties this season, but his price dropped on DraftKings and he’s under $11,000, which feels like a bargain. There’s more debate for Scherzer on a site like FanDuel where he’s priced higher, but the bottom line is Scherzer has the highest K% of any ace on this slate (34.6% last season) and his upside is big here. I’d make him in a priority in all formats.
If Lefty Mashers Exist, Here’s One
Steve Pearce gets to tee off against lefty John Means today while batting third in a Boston lineup that has the potential to go off. Last season, Pearce hit five of his 11 homers against lefties with a .959 OPS. Pearce is affordable and gives you access to this high-powered Red Sox offense.
Veteran In Prime Spot
I question how much juice is left in Dustin Pedroia’s bat, but he’s cheap and hitting 6th for the Red Sox today. He’ll hold the platoon advantage against left John Means, who hasn’t shown he belongs to be a starter in the Majors at this point. The Red Sox have a massive implied team total and with value hard to come by, Pedroia looks to be a solid cash game play In this lineup.
Sneaky One Off
Trey Mancini has started off this year with a hot bat, as he is hitting .339 with 6 home runs and 12 RBIs. Today he gets a matchup against the lefty David Price, who has struggled this year to right-handed hitters. Price is giving up a .279 ISO and a 43% hard contact rate to righties, while Mancini has a .400 ISO and a 54% hard contact rate against lefties so far this season. With all the ownership going to the Boston bats, I like Mancini as a one-off in GPPs.
Attacking A Weak Lineup
Jose Berrios has a nice matchup today against the Detroit Tigers. This lineup will again be without its best hitter in Nick Castellanos, which really hurts them. The Tigers strike out the 9th most in the league and Berrios’ strikeout rate is around 27% this year. I believe everyone will pay up for Mad Max or down to Kluber, and if that happens Berrios could come in a bit under-owned.
LAA-CHC postponed due to inclement weather Sunday
The matchup between the Los Angeles Angels and Chicago Cubs on Sunday afternoon has been postponed due to forecasted inclement weather throughout the day in the Chicago area. The teams have yet to announce a makeup date for the aforementioned contest, but it will more than likely be scheduled later in the season a mutual day off for both ball clubs. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on Sunday’s daily fantasy slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: Carrie Muskat via Twitter
Finding Some Salary Relief
Look, there’s obviously nothing sexy about Neil Walker. However, he hits in the middle of the lineup for the Marlins and gets to face a pitcher that is often very inconsistent and wild in Vincent Velasquez. I don’t expect Velasquez to pitch deep into the game, and Walker should get some RBI opportunities. Walker is very cheap on every DFS site and is a fine salary saver on a slate that requires it if you want to fit in some elite pitching and/or Boston bats.
Bounce Back Spot
It’s been a rough start to the 2019 season for Jose Ramirez, but we can attribute a good chunk of that to bad luck. His batted ball profile is not alarming, as his current 41% hard contact rate would actually be the best mark of his career. Somehow, though, he is hitting just .135 with a .159 BABIP. That’s bad luck, my friends. Sooner or later, there is going to be a great spot to buy low on an elite hitter, and this might be it. Jakob Junis is very much prone to the long ball, and Ramirez is one of my favorite targets on this Sunday slate.
A Lot Of K Upside
Morton is one of my favorite pitchers today. He gets sandwiched in between four other good pitchers right around his price range, so I think the ownership should be a little more spread out. In his first three starts, he is averaging 7 strikeouts per game, and today he gets a matchup against the Blue Jays, who strike out the second most in the league. This season only one starter for the Blue Jays is under a 25% strikeout rate to right-handed pitching, so we could see a nice ceiling game out of Morton.
Safe And Steady SP2
If you are looking for a cheaper pitching option this afternoon, I am just fine with utilizing Marcus Stroman as a value play in cash games. His elite ground ball rate will almost always keep him from getting blown up as long as his command doesn’t go off the rails, and his stuff has looked better in the early going. The Tampa offense has been playing over their heads a bit, and I expect them to cool off in the near future. If Stroman brings his ground ball stuff to the yard today, he could be one of the better point per dollar pitching options on the board.
Still The Top Pitching Option
The fact that Scherzer has been a “disappointment” over his first three starts despite owning a 3.32 ERA and a 36% strikeout rate goes to show just how high our expectations have become for him. He had an extra day of rest here after getting hit in the ankle with a line drive in his last start, but all indications are that he is fine. Unless he is facing a truly elite offense, he will almost always check in as the top pitcher on the board, and the Pirates are certainly a beatable group. Scherzer is a large home favorite and is a core option for me today.
Elite Offensive Spot
Based on the Vegas odds with Boston as a -270 favorite and an over/under pushing 10.5 runs, Boston has an implied team total over SIX today, which is not something you see often outside of Coors Field games. As such, our core bats have to include someone from the Red Sox. While you can’t go wrong with the likes of Betts, Martinez, or Bogaerts as an elite option, I will side with Martinez as my top play. Martinez has built a career on hitting lefties hard, with a 42% hard contact rate, .397 wOBA, and .267 ISO against southpaws for his career. Don’t be surprised if he is a big part of a big day for the Boston offense.
Bottom of the Order Value
Cesar Hernandez has moved all the way to the bottom of the order due to the potency of this Phillies lineup. This should keep his ownership and price down most of the year. On a day like today where he is facing Mr. Urena he is most certainly in play. Urena has historically struggled to punch out bats from the left side of the plate and nothing has changed this season. I like Cesar to have a nice day at the plate and so should you.
