DFS Alerts
Sneaky Stack
It’s no surprise that the King’s skill-set has declined as his career has progressed. Specifically, the last few seasons have been tough for Hernandez who has posted a SIERA north of 4.19 each of the last few years. Felix posted a career low strikeout rate last season at 18.3% and was unable to generate any swings and misses in his first start of 2019 (4.4 SwStr%) despite just allowing one earned run to the Angels. Park factors aren’t working in the Royals favor on Monday but there’s still some GPP potential here on the base paths as Felix has been below average in terms of stolen base prevention throughout his career.
Other tagged players: Adalberto Mondesi, Billy Hamilton
Power + Speed
Looking for both a favorable power AND speed matchup? Well, look no further than Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez had an extremely strong 2018 season but has struggled big time with HRs at times in his career (2.22 HR/9 in 2017) as well as holding runners on base. A revamped Phillies lineup is not only one of the most powerful offenses in the league but also has a few players that can add value with their legs.
Other tagged players: Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen, J.T. Realmuto Definition of Insanity
If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results then I am officially insane for stacking against Andrew Cashner. Cashner seemingly always strings together a quality start when I target him but he’s undoubtedly not a good pitcher – he posted a 5.33 SIERA, 14.5 K%, 9.5 BB%, and 13.6% HR/FB last season. Oakland has a rapidly increasing implied run total that is currently sitting at 5.5 and they could actually go a bit under looked on a slate that is absolutely stacked with hitting options.
Other tagged players: Robbie Grossman, Matt Chapman Ridiculously Low Ownership
Does playing Ryu excite me? No. Do I think he’s some sort of excellent play in a favorable spot? No. So why even waste a little blurb on him? Well, Justin Verlander is such a better play than the other high-priced options on Monday night that we’re going to end up with ridiculously low ownership on guys like Ryu. Current ownership projections have Ryu at 4% owned on FanDuel and 7% on DraftKings. Despite this being a sub-optimal spot for Ryu, he is one of the most talented pitchers on the slate and has put together strong back-to-back starts to open the season. In all likelihood I am not going to have a ton of exposure to Ryu but do think he makes sense as a game theory play in tournaments.
Value Is Tough To Come By
It’s easy to find bats to spend salary on tonight, but the pricing on DK has made it difficult to find bats worth using under the $4k barrier. There a couple of well priced lefties in Anaheim facing Jhoulys Chacin that are worth a look at their salary. There is some chance that Kole Calhoun misses another game with his bruised knee, but if he’s back at the top of the lineup this is a very fair price against the low strikeouts and high walks of Chacin. Chacin struck out just 15.6% of lefties while walking 11% and allowing 39% hard contact in 2018. Calhoun had a strong 44% hard hit rate against righties and we can hope that he won’t have to see Josh Hader tonight after Hader threw 2 2/3 innings last night.
Next Spot In Line Tonight
After Coors Field, the Oakland A’s are the high total team of the night, getting a big ballpark boost heading to Baltimore to face Andrew Cashner. Cashner is well below average strikeout pitcher who can’t keep the ball on the ground to lefties. The righty power is strongly in play as well, but on FanDuel and Yahoo, Kendrys Morales is a clear value with his strong plate skills and hard hit ability that gave him a .220 ISO against righties in 2018. On DK/FDRFT, I would prefer to use Matt Chapman or Khris Davis, but we may be scrounging for pennies, so I’ll leave Morales as the core option there. Just keep in mind that if salary is not an issue, I would start with Chapman ahead of Morales.
Site Specific Values
Assuming David Dahl is out of the lineup after getting injured last night, Raimel Tapia should get the start, and could even be near the top of the lineup. With Julio Teheran’s awful numbers against left-handed batters, Tapia is essentially a must-play in cash games at his salary on FanDuel and Yahoo. He’s a low power bat so I wouldn’t call him a must-play in tournaments, but there’s enough stolen base upside to make him a strong play in all formats.
Monday's Top Hitter
Atlanta’s Julio Teheran has huge issues against left-handed batters. In 2018, he had a brutal 65:64 K:BB ratio while allowing 44% fly balls and 38% hard hits. The bad news for the Rockies is that with David Dahl and Ryan McMahon injured, they are down to just one lefty bat with power. This makes Charlie Blackmon the clear top play for the Rockies, and my top overall hitter on the slate. He can take walks and score runs, he can hit for power and he can even steal a base, all from the top of the lineup in Coors Field
The Lone Ace
Justin Verlander is the top pitcher on tonight’s slate, and his salary is not substantially higher than the next few pitchers below him. It’s not an ideal matchup for a fly ball pitcher to face the Yankees, but there are plenty of strikeouts in this lineup and Verlander’s control helps lower the risk. His 34.8% K rate from 2018 is a full 7% above the next closest pitcher on this slate and the one rough start from last week is not nearly enough for me to start worrying yet. His 15.3% swinging strikes this season imply he’s still the same dominant pitcher we saw in 2018.
The Upside Is There
We don’t have a lot of value on DraftKings again tonight, which leads me to the Royals against Felix Hernandez. This game features a really nice total and should produce some scoring. Hernandez is a very hittable pitcher now and tends to use his sinker to generate ground balls. In a small sample size, O’Hearn has crushed fastballs and sinkers. He had a .393 ISO with a .459 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season in 129 PAs.
Make Sure He's In The Lineup
There is a really good chance that David Dahl misses the game tonight, and Raimel Tapia would get the start if Dahl is out of the lineup. Tapia is really cheap on FanDuel and Yahoo. Teheran in Coors makes me excited to play any left-handed hitter. He posted a .327 wOBA with a .168 ISO and a 39.8% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters in 2018. Tapia had a .368 wOBA with a .194 ISO and .847 OPS in 105 games in AAA last season.
Upside Against These Righties
Velasquez will make his first start of 2019 tonight. He’s a very good option for tournaments tonight, and if the Washington Nationals use their normal right-handed heavy lineup, he could have a really good game here. He posted a .275 wOBA with a .097 ISO and a 28.7% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters last season. Eaton and Soto are the two bats you worry about in this spot, but when considering the price, I’ll take a shot on the upside in tournaments. I’m a little concerned about pitch count, but we don’t have a lot of cheaper options on this slate.
Safer SP2 Option
I’m going to be using a lot of lefties against the Giants this season. The projected starters had a .121 ISO with a .304 wOBA against left-handed pitchers in 2018. They don’t strikeout a lot, but I’m okay with that on this slate. Lauer should have no issue throwing clean innings against this team, and as long as BABIP is on his side, he should have a nice outing. On top of that, this is one of the best pitcher’s ballparks in baseball. The only concern I have with Lauer is his pitch count, but I’m hoping if he’s pitching well, we see him in the 85 to 90 range tonight.
Cards’ Bats Underpriced on Sunday
Sure, Petco isn’t a great park for hitters, but the Cardinals have some decent options that feel underpriced given the matchup. They’ll face Matt Strahm, who is talented but unproven so far as a starter in the Majors. Strahm’s debut was one to forget, giving up 11 baserunners and 5 runs over just 2.2 innings. Today he faces a tough Cardinals lineup that features Paul Goldschmidt (.411 xwOBA vs. LHP in 2018), Marcell Ozuna (.395), Matt Carpenter (.368), and Yadier Molina (.365). Ozuna ($3.9k), Carpenter ($4.1k) and Molina ($3.5k) are all bargains on Draftkings hitting at the top or middle of the order. Goldschmidt seems well worth the price at $4.7k giving his insane numbers vs. LHP. Paul Dejong is batting 3rd at just $3.8k, but struggled vs. LHP with a .290 xwOBA. The Cardinals have a 4.66 implied total vs. Strahm and the Padres.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong, Matt Strahm, Marcell Ozuna
Cheap SP Option
Marcus Stroman has had a nice start to his contract year after a rough 2018 that saw him post a career worst 5.54 ERA. A career 19.4% K rate guy, Stroman does not possess much K upside but is in a good run prevention spot vs. a depleted Indians lineup that is not the same without Francisco Lindor. The Indians will have just 3 hitters in their lineup who had an xwOBA vs. RHP above .325 last year (Carlos Santana, Leonys Martin, Jose Ramirez). Stroman faces 7 left-handed bats in the Indians’ lineup but has been slightly better vs. LHB for his career (.301 wOBA vs. LHB, .311 vs. RHB). Working against Stroman here is a decreased chance at a ‘W’ as the Jays’ lineup might have trouble scoring runs vs. Mike Clevinger. At Stroman’s price of just $7.1k on Draftkings, he doesn’t have to do anything crazy to hit value.