DFS Alerts
Padres are an Intriguing Stack
Wainwright hasn’t put together a good season since 2014. He’s 37 and his skills seem to be rapidly declining. In his first start, he struggled to find the zone (4 BB in 4 innings) and averaged 88 MPH on his fastball. Many Machado (.360 xwOBA vs. RHP in 2018), Hunter Renfroe (.332), Eric Hosmer (.320), Ian Kinsler (.307) and Franmil Reyes (.304, 92.3 aEV) can all be had without breaking the bank on both major sites. Fernando Tatis is also in play with a 115 wRC+, 2 homers and 1 steal to start his rookie year. Also working in Padres hitters’ favor is an extremely hitter friendly umpire in Mark Wegner. The Padres have an implied total of 4.34 vs. Wainwright and the Cardinals in St. Louis this afternoon and figure to be low-owned given the more obvious stacks on the slate.
Other tagged players: Hunter Renfroe, Adam Wainwright, Eric Hosmer, Ian Kinsler, Franmil Reyes, Fernando Tatis
Affordable Upside at SP
Caleb Smith quietly offers some nice GPP upside this afternoon vs. Atlanta. The Braves have an extremely top-heavy lineup, with Freddie Freeman (.387 xwOBA vs. LHP in 2018), Ronald Acuna (.372) and Josh Donaldson (.342) posing a major threat in the 2-3-4 spots of the order. Besides these heavy hitters, the Braves do not have a single hitter above a .310 xwOBA vs. LHP last year. If Smith can limit the damage at the top of the order, he has a good shot to hit value with a $7.9k price on Draftkings and $7.2k price on Fanduel. Smith always has upside given his career K rate of 26.4%. He owns the platoon advantage vs. just 3 of 9 Atlanta batters, but he’s actually been better vs. righties over his young career with a .299 wOBA and 26.6% K rate vs. RHB compared to a .336 wOBA and 26.0% K rate vs. LHB.
Other tagged players: Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson Value in KCR Lineup
It has been increasingly tough to find value bats on Draftkings. With that said, there’s a few bats in the Royals lineup that stand out vs. Tyson Ross and the Tigers. Ross’s overall numbers as a pitcher aren’t bad, but he is much worse vs. LHB as he is a Fastball-Slider guy without an out pitch vs. lefties. Last year he allowed a .368 wOBA and 4.8% K-BB vs. LHB, a trend that has been consistent throughout his career. Alex Gordon stands out in the KCR lineup as a guy that can still provide some pop vs. RHP (.348 xwOBA last year) and is just $3.5k on Draftkings while hitting out of the 3 hole. Ryan O’hearn (.345 xwOBA) has proven capable in the big leagues in his young career, and comes with a cool $3.7k price tag out of the 5 spot. Lucas Duda ($3.9k) is further down in the order batting 7th but has hit RHP to the tune of a 130 wRC+ and .359 wOBA for his career.
Other tagged players: Lucas Duda, Ryan O'Hearn Berrios not a Good Bet to Hit Value
The Phillies new-look offense has them currently ranked 2nd in the league with a .375(!) xwOBA to start the year. Their lineup today features 4 hitters who had an xwOBA vs. RHP above .353 last year. Berrios has looked plenty capable thus far in 2019 with a 24.5% K-BB and 2.99 SIERA. Berrios’ home-road splits for his career are worrisome though as he owns an elite .274 wOBA, 3.68 xFIP and 19.2% K-BB at home versus a .345 wOBA, 4.98 xFIP and 10.7 K-BB% on the road in a sample of 411 innings. Also working against Berrios today is hitter friendly umpire Laz Diaz. Berrios will always have K upside, but doesn’t have much room for error with the way he is priced on the major sites this afternoon. He should probably be treated as nothing more than a GPP dart-throw in a tough spot today.
ATL Stack
One stack that I think could come in under owned is the Atlanta Braves. We get the Braves in a hitters ball park going up against a decent left hander, Caleb Smith. The Braves have only two guys in their lineup with under a 213 ISO to left handed pitching, add that to Smith having a 54% fly ball rate to right handed hitters. I think we get the Braves low owned, so in GPPs I like taking a shot on guys like Acuna, Albies, And Donaldson.
ATL Stack
One stack that I think could come in under owned is the Atlanta Braves. We get the Braves in a hitters ball park going up against a decent left hander, Caleb Smith. The Braves have only two guys in their lineup with under a 213 ISO to left handed pitching, add that to Smith having a 54% fly ball rate to right handed hitters. I think we get the Braves low owned, so in GPPs I like taking a shot on guys like Acuna, Albies, And Donaldson.
ATL Stack
One stack that I think could come in under owned is the Atlanta Braves. We get the Braves in a hitters ball park going up against a decent left hander, Caleb Smith. The Braves have only two guys in their lineup with under a 213 ISO to left handed pitching, add that to Smith having a 54% fly ball rate to right handed hitters. I think we get the Braves low owned, so in GPPs I like taking a shot on guys like Acuna, Albies, And Donaldson.
Big Upside Pitcher
Mike Clevinger is my top arm to pay up for in GPPs today. He was dominant in his first outing against the White Sox, pitching 7 scoreless innings, giving up just one hit while striking out 12 batters. The righty Clevinger now gets to face the Blue Jays squad who has struggled against right-handed pitching, striking out 71 times so far this season. That is the fifth most in baseball. Look for Clevinger to continue racking up the strikeouts.
All The Goldy Today
Paul Goldschmidt is one of my favorite players to pay up for on this slate. He gets a matchup against a lefty in Matt Strahm who really struggled last time out, giving up 5 runs and just had a really hard time finishing batters off. Goldy comes in with a .273 ISO, .418 wOBA, and a 50% hard contact rate to left-handed pitching. This could result in a huge day for Goldschmidt.
Starting to Heat Up
Manny Machado is a one-off I like a lot in GPPs today. In each of his last three games he has had double-digit fantasy points, while hitting two home runs with four runs batted in. Machado has a .244 ISO and .384 wOBA against right-handed pitching. With a lot of options at third base today, hopefully we can get Machado at lower ownership.
Justin Smoak (neck) scratched Sunday; Teoscar Hernandez replaces
Smoak has been scratched from the Toronto Blue Jays original confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the Cleveland Indians due to lingering neck soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Teoscar Hernandez, who will now handle the designated hitter duties and slot into the fifth spot in the order, which bumps Randal Grichuk and Rowdy Tellez each up one batting position to third and fourth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Blue Jays lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Mike Clevinger on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Arden Zwelling via Twitter Other tagged players: Teoscar Hernandez
Strong Pop for Price
Marcell Ozuna is one of the few players whose price tag jumps out across the entire industry as being underpriced for the matchup. Ozuna and the Cardinals will host Matt Strahm and the Padres on Sunday and regardless of how you feel about Strahm’s prospects, this is a difficult spot for the southpaw. Ozuna has shown throughout his careers that he’s a very solid hitter against left handed pitching as he’s the owner of a 129 wRC+ and .197 ISO. Marcell has a solid on base skill-set and can provide you strong pop for his price tag.
Difficult Decision
On single pitcher sites, play Max Scherzer in cash. That’s it. Don’t get cute. On multi-SP sites, the decision on SP2 is a difficult one. Projection systems like the idea of using a cheap SP2 like Tyson Ross as he projects well from a pt/$ perspective but I’m trying to find the salary for Sean Newcomb if possible. The Marlins offense is a gift that keeps on giving and they’re going to be a team to target aggressively with SP all season long. The Marlins do project slightly better against LHP but this still sets up as a solid run prevention spot for Newcomb who also showed a solid strikeout floor with a 23% strikeout rate last season.
#GoodSpot
The Astros are in a #goodspot on Sunday. Mike Fiers is a fine real life pitcher that should find some success when playing at home in the pitcher friendly O.co but is a guy we’ll want to pick on throughout the season when he’s on the road. Fiers extreme fly ball tendencies (39.4 GB% last season) and lower than average strikeout rate (19.5 K% last season) mean a lot of fly balls in play. As such, Fiers has given up a lot of HRs throughout his career which typically makes opposing hitters from a power perspective. Springer remains ridiculously underpriced on DraftKings and should be considered a core cash game play there – he’s a fine play on FanDuel as well but is efficiently priced. On FanDuel, I prefer Correa’s price tag over Springer.
Other tagged players: Carlos Correa Level of His Own
Every fifth day or so Max Scherzer pitches and every fifth day or so Scherzer is more or less a lock for our cash game SP1. Today is no different as Scherzer will take the mound against a Mets team that he dominated in his season debut striking out 12 batters over 7.2 IP. Scherzer has posted a strikeout rate north of 30% each of the last four seasons and that strikeout rate gives him the highest fantasy floor + ceiling combination whenever he toes the rubber. Scherzer is on a level of his own on Sunday as Derek Carty’s projection system, The Bat, has him projected for over 9 DK/12 FD points better than the next SP in line.