DFS Alerts

Evening forecast has one area of concern

There is one concerning spot on the radar in Kevin’s evening update and it just happens to be the most positive run environment on the board with two of the top three implied run lines in Texas. Players can read the update forecast on the Weather page. There is no Crunch Time tonight, but Kevin will continue updating conditions via Twitter (@KevinRothWx).

This pitching staff will improve the outlook for an offense in any park

Seattle is an extremely negative run environment, so much so that it’s rare to see a team run line climb much above 4.5 runs. The Baltimore pitching staff is enough to push that total to 5.05 tonight. Josh Rogers had below average strikeout rates in the minors this season, whiffing just two of 23 batters faced in his major league debut. The Baltimore bullpen has a 6.21 FIP and 6.7 K-BB% over the last month. The first four batters in the Seattle lineup are all above a 115 wRC+ vs LHP. Nelson Cruz (139 wRC+, .301 ISO) is the only batter in the lineup above a .185 ISO, though Mitch Haniger (128 wRC+, .145 ISO) has a healthy 39.3 Hard% that’s second in the lineup only to Cruz.

Empty lineup, but a great park

Jeffrey Springs makes his first major league start tonight and his first at any level since A-ball last season. He’s exceeded 40 pitches in just two of his outings with a high of 51. It will be a bullpen effort for the Rangers and that bullpen does have a 15.7 K-BB% over the last month, but a 4.80 FIP and a terrible park. The Angels have a 5.15 run line that’s third best on the board, but Mike Trout (188 wRC+, .292 ISO vs LHP this season) is surrounded by AAA bats with Ohtani and Upton on the bench. Kole Calhoun (74 wRC+, .104 ISO), David Fletcher (68 wRC+, .091 ISO) and Andrelton Simmons (124 wRC+, .145 ISO) fill out the top half of this lineup. All are fine plays in this environment and only likely to face the lefty once. Keep an eye out for Kevin’s upcoming forecast tonight for potential weather issues in this game.

Two of the four teams above five implied runs tonight reside in Texas with the home team (5.35) being the higher of the two. Matt Shoemaker makes only his second start of the season, facing just 14 high A-ball starters in a lone rehab start. He can’t be expected to last more than four or five innings here and the Angels have a bullpen with a 4.25 FIP, but very unimpressive 9.8 K-BB% over the last 30 days backing him in what is, by far, the most dangerous park on the board. Players may have to be concerned with some weather issues in this game, but the Rangers offer five batters above a 105 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs RHP this season. That does not even include Nomar Mazara (114 wRC+, .167 ISO), who has a 217 wRC+ over the last week. Shin-Soo Choo (149 wRC+, .230 ISO), Rougned Odor (121 wRC+, .230 ISO) and Jurickson Profar (108 wRC+, .193 ISO) are part of that group, along with Joey Gallo (113 wRC+, .273 ISO), who has an atrocious -50 wRC+ over the last week with a 75 Hard%. If you’re wondering how such a thing happens, he’s struck out in seven of his last 13 PAs.

Value play at fist base

If players are paying up for pitching tonight, the Tampa Bay Rays offer an interesting first base option. Ji-Man Choi has a 136 wRC+ and .232 ISO vs RHP this season and faces Marcus Stroman in his return from the DL. Despite owning a ground ball rate above 60% to batters from either side of the plate, LHBs have a .322 wOBA and a .360 xwOBA against Stroman, who’s struggled with injuries this year. Choi costs less than $4K on DK and only $2.6K on FD.

Batters from either side above a .360 wOBA this season

The Diamondbacks are able to claim tonight’s top implied run line at home (5.68) despite there being a game in Texas on the slate. That’s because Bryan Mitchell has been hammered at the major league level in 48.1 innings this year (9.7 K%, .413 xwOBA) and then had a 6.12 FIP in six more starts at high A-ball. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .360 wOBA against him this season, though he has kept LHBs on the ground for 52.1% of batted balls. That’s less impressive than it looks considering the minuscule strikeout rate. David Peralta (158 wRC+, .262 ISO), Paul Goldschmidt (141 wRC+, .238 ISO) and Eduardo Escobar (129 wRC+, .270 ISO) have assaulted RHP this season and are top overall bats on this slate. Arizona stacks look healthy here right down through the first six in the lineup, though players need to realize that San Diego does have one of the top pens in baseball (3.29 FIP, 21.8 K-BB% last 30 days). We’re just not very likely to see the top of that bullpen tonight.

Daily Bullpen Alert: Eyes on Texas and Seattle

Considering the starters for tonight, the Mets, Diamondbacks and Dodgers are the three bullpens players might expect to see the least bullpen usage from. The other seven starters are a giant question mark and the bullpen players certainly want to attack is in Seattle, where the Baltimore pen (6.21 FIP, 6.7 K-BB% last 30 days) backs Josh Rogers in his second start. While Seattle is an extremely negative run environment, that can be said about three of the five parks on the board. The Rangers (4.80 FIP, 15.7 K-BB%) and Mariners (4.71 FIP, 9.5 K-BB%) have been the other struggling pens on the board. The Rangers have a healthy K-BB%, but a terrible park and a pitcher making his first major league start (Jeffrey Springs), who’s really just an opener, having last started a game in A-ball in 2017. Erasmo Ramirez starts for the Mariners against a depleted Baltimore lineup. The fact that he’s failed to exceed five innings in five of six starts hardly seems to matter in this matchup.

Three strong pitching options and a lot of unknown on Monday night

Tonight’s holiday slate features just five games. One pitcher is making his first major league start, another his second. A third pitcher has been on the DL all season (one start). A fourth has been on the DL since August 17th. A fifth hasn’t pitched in the majors in three months and hasn’t started in four. There’s also whatever the Rays are doing. The remaining choices are Erasmo Ramirez, Zack Godley, Alex Wood and Jacob deGrom. Wood and deGrom are facing each other. Wood (21 K%, 3.89 SIERA, .301 xwOBA) is facing a lineup with a 78 wRC+, 24.8 K% and 8.9 HR/FB in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. He went seven innings in Texas last time out and though he had just four starts in August, he’s been above 95 pitches in five of his last seven outings. DeGrom (31.5 K%, 2.87 SIERA, .257 xwOBA) is facing a much more difficult offense (113 wRC+, 15.6 K% vs RHP) in that same park. He’s struck out at least nine in six straight starts. Godley (24 K%, 4.02 SIERA, .344 xwOBA) is at home against the Padres (81 wRC+, 25.8 K% vs RHP). He allowed six runs to them in San Diego three starts back, but has at least six strikeouts in nine straight starts, though more than seven only once in that span. Considering cost and matchup, any of these three arms are reasonable options, perhaps the only reasonable options. It will be interesting to see whom players decide to side with here.

Still a top run line in an extremely negative run environment

Despite playing in one of the most (if not the most) negative run environments in baseball, the Astros have the second highest run line (4.7) on the afternoon slate against a pretty good pitcher this year, Kyle Gibson. He has struggled of late though (15.9 K%, 4.87 SIERA last 30 days). LHBs have had more success against him by batted ball information (38.3 Hard%, 44.5 GB%) and Statcast (.340 xwOBA) and although the Astros are a predominantly right-handed lineup (.305 wOBA vs Gibson this season), that makes Tony Kemp (126 wRC+, .158 ISO vs RHP) the value play in the second spot in the lineup today for less than $4K. Alex Bregman (153 wRC+, .232 ISO), George Springer (104 wRC+, .160 ISO) and Marwin Gonzalez (111 wRC+, .167 ISO) are the only remaining batters in the order above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this year, though only cleanup hitter Carlos Correa (98 wRC+, .202 ISO) is close despite struggling since returning from injury.

Facing a tough lineup in return to the majors

Zach Davies last pitched in the majors in May. He’s since had 10 minor league starts at several levels, most recently striking out 15 of his last 52 batters in 15 one-run innings, but that’s all below AAA and he had previously allowed at least four runs in four of six starts in the minors. Should he falter in his return to the majors, the top half of this Cubs’ lineup should be able to take advantage of him. Daniel Murphy (133 wRC+, .183 ISO), Anthony Rizzo (138 wRC+, .228 ISO), Javier Baez (127 wRC+, .270 ISO) and Kyle Schwarber (121 wRC+, .264 ISO) have all been dangerous bats against RHP.

Still struggles with LHBs and facing a balanced, contact prone lineup

The Pirates (4.53) are the lowest of three offenses above 4.5 implied runs on Monday afternoon. The contact prone offense may have some value against Matt Harvey (LHBs .351 wOBA, 42.2 Hard%, 38.9 GB% this season). In fact, each of the first seven batters they send to the plate has at least a 105 wRC+ vs RHP this season. Gregory Polanco (124 wRC+, .262 ISO) is the only one above a .200 ISO, but Adam Frazier (120 wRC+, .184 ISO) and Corey Dickerson (114 wRC+, .190 ISO) come at reasonable cost, the latter just $2.4K on FanDuel due to recent struggles (5 wRC+ last seven days). Starling Marte (117 wRC+, .178 ISO) and Francisco Cervelli (137 wRC+, .196 ISO) play also against a pitcher with a fairly average .318 wOBA, 35.3 Hard% and 45.1 GB% against RHBs as well.

Still the top projected offense despite losing DH

Despite struggling over the weekend in Chicago (AL) and losing the DH in an NL park, the Red Sox still enjoy the afternoon’s top run line at 4.73 runs in Atlanta. Touki Toussaint is a well regarded 22 year-old rookie (50 FV grade via Fangraphs), who allowed one run in six innings (four strikeouts) against the Marlins in his debut. He has a 19.5 K-BB% both in 16 AA starts and then eight more AAA starts this season. The Red Sox are still able to send five batters against him above a 115 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs RHP this season right out of the chute. The first four in the order all above a 135 wRC+. Mookie Betts (176 wRC+, .278 ISO) tops the lineup with a 261 wRC+ over the last week. A possible concern is that just one of five batted balls by RHBs were on the ground in Toussaint’s start against Miami.

Struggling pitchers could provide some value this afternoon

Players looking to grab some value at pitcher in the early slate might be in luck if they’re willing to accept that struggling pitchers are likely to return to previous norms. There are a number of arms in the $6-8K range with the potential to return profit on their price tags. Jose Urena (18.4 K%, 4.26 SIERA, .328 xwOBA) might be a league average pitcher in a great park, yet is frequently under-priced. He’s recorded a sixth inning out in 16 of his 26 starts and hosts a Phillies’ offense with a 94 wRC+ and 25.1 K% vs RHP. That offense has improved over the last month, but still has a 70 wRC+, 21.2 K-BB% and -7.1 Hard-Soft% over the last week. Dallas Keuchel (17.7 K%, 4.02 SIERA, .307 xwOBA) has seen his hard hit rate increase in recent starts against tough divisional foes (Oakland, Seattle, Los Angeles), but faces a Twins’ offense with just an 84 wRC+ and 8.4 HR/FB against LHP today in one of the most negative run environments in baseball at a cost of just $7.9K on DraftKings. Vince Velasquez (26.2 K%, 3.97 SIERA, .303 xwOBA) has just an 18.3 K%, 5.51 SIERA and .343 xwOBA over the last month, but may be able to get back on track in Miami (<85 wRC+ at home and vs RHP) for just $6.6K on FanDuel. Michael Fulmer allowed seven runs in Kansas City last time out after 4.2 shoutout innings in his first start back from the DL. That first start was against the same White Sox (18.9 K-BB% vs RHP) he’ll be facing today. He’s within $100 of $7K on either site.

Expensive matchup in Washington

The early game slate consists of the first seven games on the schedule on both sites and features two $10K pitchers. As luck would have it, they are even facing each other in Washington. Max Scherzer (34.3 K%, 2.75 SIERA, .259 xwOBA) is your top pitcher and the most expensive one by $2K on DraftKings. He snapped a string of 22 straight starts with at least six innings and seven with two runs or less against the Phillies last time out. He will likely take this out on a very average Cardinals’ offense (97 wRC+, 22 K% vs RHP). He may not be the best value on the board, but he’s still probably worth the effort of paying up for. The same may not be able to be said about Jack Flaherty (30.6 K%, 3.31 SIERA, .276 xwOBA), who’s done an excellent job this year, but is not the same caliber pitcher as Scherzer. He gets a park downgrade against a tougher offense this afternoon (100 wRC+, 20.1 K% vs RHP).

Great One-Off

The Braves are a sneaky offense to target in the early slate. While Nathan Eovaldi has elite velocity on his fastball, he doesn’t generate many swings and misses. No matter how hard you throw, you have to be able to miss bats to have a high strikeout rate. On the season, he has allowed a .327 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Freddie Freeman (.404 xwOBA against righties) makes a ton of sense as a one-off in both cash games and tournaments.