DFS Alerts
Daily Bullpen Alert: Poor pens behind rookie starters
A full 15 game slate means players have the opportunity to take advantage of every terrible bullpen in the majors and for a while now, that conversation has begun with the Orioles (6.08 FIP, 6.4 K-BB% last 30 days), who get a park bump in Seattle behind probably their best pitcher since the break (Alex Cobb), but this bullpen keeps bats from any lineup in play. The Nationals (5.47 FIP, 13.3 K-BB%) are starting Eric Fedde against the Cardinals. The Twins (5.33 FIP, 13.6 K-BB%) are the new entrant into the five FIP club. They open with Trevor May in Houston. The Reds (5.11 FIP, 11.4 K-BB%) start Cody Reed in Pittsburgh. Additionally, Jason Vargas, Francisco Liriano, Joey Lucchesi, Trevor Richards and Robbie Ray are averaging five innings or fewer per start. Vargas and the Mets’ bullpen (4.34 FIP, 16.0 K-BB%) have both been much better over the last month. Liriano’s Tigers (4.99 FIP, 12.4 K-BB%) just missed the list. They’re facing an improving White Sox offense. Lucchesi has been going deeper into games recently and has a top bullpen behind him. Richards is in a great park with a poor bullpen (4.48 FIP, 11.1 K-BB%). Should Ray falter again, he’s backed by one of the better pens (3.61 FIP, 14.7 K-BB%) against the weak hitting Padres.
Under-Priced Lefties
Brandon Belt is dealing with an ankle injury, so we’ll need to make sure he’s in the lineup, but if he is, he is another underpriced Giants lefty in Coors Field. Yes, German Marquez has been great, but all that greatness is against righties. He is just OK against lefties with below average 19.3% strikeouts and average batted ball data. Belt’s 48% fly ball rate and 40% hard hits will play well in this altitude and he’s playable on all site in all formats at this salary.
Lower priced pitchers in great parks and/or spots
Mid and low priced pitchers tonight offer some interesting DFS options, some whom players may have completely bypassed and been right to do so only a month or so ago. Trevor Richards (23.6 K%, 4.34 SIERA, .339 xwOBA) has a 27.5 K% over the last month and pitches in a great park against an offense with a 94 wRC+ and 25.2 K% vs RHP. The Phillies also have a 60 wRC+ and 23.6 K-BB% with a -5.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week. Richards costs $6.6K on FanDuel. Jason Vargas (19.4 K%, 4.52 SIERA, .346 xwOBA) has to face the Dodgers, whose 93 wRC+ vs LHP this season is not an accurate representation of the current lineup. However, they have a 26.8 K% over the last week and Vargas gets to face them in an extremely negative run environment at a low cost, having struck out 14 of his last 43 batters over 11.1 innings (1 ER) against the Nationals and Cubs. Joe Musgrove (19.5 K%, 4.07 SIERA, .303 xwOBA) has completed seven innings in eight of 16 starts and faces an average Reds’ offense at home. Wade LeBlanc (19.6 K%, 4.79 SIERA, .321 xwOBA) is still flying well below his estimators, but his contact profile seems to suggest there’s something to that and he gets to hose the Orioles (77 wRC+ vs LHP). Alex Cobb (15.6 K%, 4.55 SIERA, .350 xwOBA) had a streak of six straight starts with at least six innings snapped in his last start. He has a 2.79 ERA with league average estimators since the All-Star break and still costs less than $6K on DraftKings. Joey Lucchesi (25.7 K%, 3.74 SIERA, .326 xwOBA) has gone at least six innings in three of his last four starts and is likely to be an under-valued arm in Arizona for $8K or less. Jake Arrieta (17.9 K%, 4.36 SIERA, .322 xwOBA) is in a great park in Miami.
Other tagged players: Jason Vargas, Wade LeBlanc, Alex Cobb, Jake Arrieta, Joe Musgrove, Joey Lucchesi He Was Never Gone, But He's Back
Justin Turner’s skills have been steady all season, but if there was any concern about his pre-season wrist injury, those should be long gone by now with five homers in his last 15 games, joining his .313 average and .409 OBP. For the season he has an 88% contact rate against lefties with 53% hard hits, 47% fly balls, a .241 ISO and a .453 wOBA. These are just elite numbers across the board and only enhanced facing a below average lefty in Jason Vargas. Play him on any site in any format, but the FanDuel salary is a standout value.
Cheap Coors Stack
German Marquez has been an absolute stud over his last 10 or so starts – he’s been the most consistent fantasy pitcher over that stretch, so it’s no surprise that Giants hitters are extremely cheap across the industry. However, any time you can roster a Coors field stack for this cheap you have to have some exposure to it. Stacking the Giants will allow you to double spend at starting pitcher on multi-starting pitcher sites which should lead to unique lineup construction in GPPs.
Other tagged players: Joe Panik, Gregor Blanco
Clear top pitcher on Tuesday night
Tuesday’s full 15 game slate features just two pitchers exceeding $10K on both sites, two more reaching that point on DraftKings only. Justin Verlander (33.7%, 2.75 SIERA, .256 xwOBA) is your most expensive arm and likely the top value of the four at home against the Twins. It may be the most negative run environment in baseball. The Twins are a league average 97 wRC+ and 13.0 K-BB% vs RHP this season, but have lost some bats along the way. While he’s struggled in run prevention recently, over the last month, his strikeout rate is 33.6% with a 2.75 SIERA and xwOBA below .300. J.A. Happ (26.6 K%, 3.57 SIERA, .315 xwOBA) allowed three HRs in fewer than five innings to the A’s last time out. He gets a park bump, but it may not be enough against the A’s (106 wRC+, 25.4 Hard% vs LHP). Happ does have a 14.7 HR/FB and while elevated fastballs have turned around his career, they’ve also made him more HR prone when he misses. Mike Clevinger (24.7 K%, 3.91 SIERA, .301 xwOBA) is a nice pitcher in a nice run prevention spot (Royals 91 wRC+, 10.6 HR/FB vs RHP). However, his ERA is 3/4 of a run below his peripherals, he pitches in an extremely positive run environment, the Royals have a 20.3 K% vs RHP and a major league best 165 wRC+ over the last week. Rich Hill (26.2 K%, 3.79 SIERA, .335 xwOBA) has slightly improved on all three of those numbers over the past month and has a great matchup (Mets 79 wRC+, 24.6 K%, 8.8 HR/FB vs LHP) in a great park, but has exceeded 90 pitches just once over his last four starts.
Other tagged players: J.A. Happ, Mike Clevinger, Rich Hill Highest Implied Run Total
Dereck Rodriguez is a converted fielder whose ERA (2.47) paints him in a much more favorable light than his SIERA (4.31). The Giants righty is hardly generating any soft contact this season (13.6%) which is unlikely to translate well in Coors. The Rockies have the highest implied run total of the slate (5.6) and make for one of the strongest stacks of the night. Somewhat surprisingly the Rockies salaries aren’t as prohibitive as they typically are in a good home matchup. You’re unlikely to be able to be able to pitch Verlander alongside your Rockies stack but you don’t have to sacrifice much else to roster one of Tuesday night’s top stack.
Other tagged players: Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez Offensive Explosion
Hopefully this isn’t just a pessimistic Brewers fan speaking but I’m bracing myself for an offensive explosion out of the Cubs on Tuesday night. Miley’s the owner of a 2.18 ERA over 11 starts this season but all signs point to him being a bit lucky. The Brewers lefty has a much worse 4.79 SIERA, 41% hard-hit rate, and has been running extremely hot in terms of home run variance – he’s only given up three HRs this season over 57.2 IP and is the owner of a 6.4% HR-to-flyball ratio which is half of his career average. He’s also been fortunate with a .269 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate. Gio Gonzalez is likely to follow Miley if he has a short outing which means much of the same – a below average southpaw. The Cubbies are my favorite stack of the night.
Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Daniel Murphy, Willson Contreras Lucas Giolito Has Been...Good?
Lucas Giolito has been…good? The White Sox righty is the owner of a 3.41 SIERA and 26.8% strikeout rate over his last five starts. Giolito gets another favorable matchup on Tuesday night against an atrocious Tigers lineup. PlateIQ has the projected Tigers lineup with a collective 20.8% strikeout rate, .287 wOBA, and .126 ISO versus RHP. There are better strikeout matchups out there on Tuesday night but this sets up as a strong run prevention spot for Giolito who is still very cheap across the industry.
Under-Priced For These Skills
A two-week slump has caused an over-correction in the salary on A.J. Pollock. This is a guy with an 81% contact rate, 47% hard hits and .241 ISO against lefties priced as a middle of the pack option. San Diego’s Joey Lucchesi is a talented young pitcher, but when he’s not striking out righties, he’s getting in trouble, allowing 41% hard hits and a .197 ISO. His good but not elite 25% strikeouts to lefties are not a deal breaker against a hitter with the contact skills of Pollock.
Frustrating to Roster
Robbie Ray had a string of amazing matchups that he disappointed in. The Diamondbacks lefty then got a tough matchup against the Dodgers and put up 28.4 DK points. Ray has been frustrating to roster at times this season but the baseline talent (3.89 SIERA) and upside (30.4 K%) continue to win my heart over. Ray once again gets a favorable matchup against a projected Padres lineup that has a 23.5% strikeout rate which should provide Ray with a strong strikeout floor. Ray could be relatively chalky on Tuesday night but he’s still a guy I want to be overweight on.
Too Big A Discount
The Rockies German Marquez has been pitching at an elite level recently, but the salaries on these Giants lefties are just way too low for a trip to Coors Field. As great as Marquez has been, it’s mostly been with brilliance against right-handed batters. Against lefties, his numbers are merely average with a 19.3% K rate, 8.4% BB and average ground balls and hard hits. Joe Panik has one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league against righties at just 8.3%. While he’s not en exciting hitter, this is just too cheap for balls in play at Coors Field.
Best Of The Rest
I am not suggesting that you can play both Verlander and Rich Hill together on the two pitcher sites, but if you need to build a lineup with the bats that don’t allow to spend up to Verlander, Hill would be my next choice as your SP1 tonight. The Mets are a terrible team against left-handed pitching with tonight’s projected lineup carrying just a .117 ISO and .291 wOBA along with 24% strikeouts. The pitch count is always in question with Hill, but he has generally been at least in the 90-95 pitch range, and he is efficient enough that should be good for six strong innings. He has enough strikeout upside for a nice ceiling even at 90 pitches in this type of matchup.
Play The Best Player
We have a pretty solid group of pitchers tonight, but Justin Verlander is far and away the best one, and this is going to fall into the ‘don’t overthink it’ category, at least for cash games. He not only has the highest strikeout rate on this slate by a wide margin, but he also lower walks than any of the other top options and his 2.78 ERA and 2.75 SIERA are miles ahead of everyone else. The game log might look like he’s slipping a bit, with a few more runs allowed than usual recently, but if anything, his underlying skills are improving as the season wears on. Since the All-Star Break, he is all the way up to a 37.2% strikeout rate with just 4.4% walks and has five double digit strikeout games in his last nine starts. He’s always a risk to allow a home run or two with his fly ball style, but the strikeouts more than offset that, and he’s the biggest favorite on the slate at home against a Twins team that just isn’t very good right now.
Chris Davis (illness) scratched Monday
Davis has been scratched from the Orioles original confirmed lineup and will not start in Monday’s matchup against the Seattle Mariners due to an illness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Chance Sisco, who will handle the designated hitter duties and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which bumps Tim Beckham and Renato Nunez each up one batting position to fifth and sixth, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Orioles order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Erasmo Ramirez on the road this evening.
As reported by: Eduardo A. Encina via Twitter Other tagged players: Chance Sisco