DFS Alerts
Top contact manager on the board in a great spot and reasonable price
Without even considering anything else, Sean Newcomb may be one of tonight’s top value only by considering cost (< $8K), venue (Miami) and opponent (Marlins 81 wRC+, 8.4 HR/FB vs LHP). One thing to realize is that the Marlins don’t strike out a ton (21.3% vs LHP), while Newcomb has just a league average strikeout rate as well (21.7%). He’s also allowed 12 runs over 9.1 innings to the Rockies and Brewers (both in Atlanta) over his last two starts, but he does top the board with an 86.8 mph aEV and the only pitcher allowing fewer Barrels/BBE than his 4.2% has started just two games. Contact management in a great park is likely where his value comes from tonight if he maintains the expected league average strikeout rate. There’s a little more risk in that, but RHBs have just a .299 wOBA against him this season and the Marlins attack him with six of those, just two above average against southpaws over the last calendar year: Starlin Castro (126 wRC+, .142 ISO) and Brian Anderson (108 wRC+, .142 ISO).
Other tagged players: Starlin Castro, Brian Anderson
Daily Bullpen Alert: Pens should see some work tonight
Without a single one of tonight’s eight pitchers averaging six innings per start, bullpens are likely to be active tonight, but which ones should daily fantasy players focus on. The Royals at a 4.29 FIP and 13.1 K-BB% have made great improvements to be nearly average over the last 30 days. The Marlins (4.47 FIP, 8.4 K-BB%) have the third lowest K-BB over the last 30 days. They have Atlanta in one of the most negative run environments in baseball, but are backing a rookie starter, who has averaged under five innings in his five starts. The Reds (5.11 FIP, 10 K-BB%) are backing home run prone Anthony DeSclafani at Wrigley. Those are the pens daily fantasy players can focus on attacking. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the A’s (3.56 FIP, 19.7 K-BB%) and Braves (3.38 FIP, 15.2 K-BB%) may not only have two of the top starters on the slate tonight, but two of the top four bullpens in the majors by FIP over the last 30 days.
Loading up on Lefties
The Cubs will be the chalky stack of the evening. They are playing at home with a helping wind blowing out to left field and they are facing a pitcher that has been awful against left-handed hitters. On the season, Anthony DeSclafani has allowed a .357 xwOBA, a 40% hard contact rate, and a HR/9 of 2.70 to batters from the left side of the plate. Daniel Murphy, Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, and Kyle Schwarber all bat from the left side and all have good numbers against right-handed pitching.
Low Owned First Baseman with Upside
The Rays could be one of the sneakiest offenses to target in this small four-game slate. Danny Duffy has been dealing with a shoulder injury, which is likely why we saw such a dip in his velocity his last time out. We know that when Duffy isn’t generating swings and misses, he is a very hittable pitcher. On the season, he has allowed a .361 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. C.J. Cron is an outstanding play here, as he boasts a .220 ISO against southpaws.
The Rays have Found a Diamond in the Rough
Glasnow is my favorite pitcher on the board tonight. He was once a top pitching prospect, but the Pirates couldn’t ever fix his command issues. Since joining the Rays, he has looked much better, scoring double-digit fantasy points in all four of his starts. The most appealing stat in his game log is the 94 pitch mark that he posted his last time out. I love his matchup against the Royals, I love that he’s playing at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, and I love that he’s a massive favorite. The fact that the Royals have the fourth lowest walk rate against right-handed pitching is icing on the cake.
We have Limited Options at SP2 Tonight
Newcomb hasn’t been at his best recently, but his numbers as a whole aren’t terrible. In 24 starts this season, he owns a 3.73 ERA (4.62 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 22% and a ground ball rate of 45%. His issues have come in the control and the hard contact departments. Luckily, he draws a favorable matchup against the Marlins and he gets to face them in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The fact that he’ll likely be facing a right-handed heavy lineup is actually beneficial to him, as he has held righties to a .304 xwOBA this season.
So Many Good Lefties
With the addition of Daniel Murphy, the Cubs can now roll out four lefties at the top of the order with contact rates above 84% against right-handed pitching that is going to make life tough on pitchers like Anthony Desclafani who have below average strikeouts against lefties. Desclafani has been pitching well recently, but is allowing a tremendous amount of hard contact to lefties this season at 41%, which has resulted in a .362 wOBA and .301 ISO against. Anthony Rizzo is the best of all worlds with just a 9.7% K rate against lefties, line drive ability, home run power, and a lineup spot that gives him both RBI and run scoring upside.
Low implied run total, but stacked with quality bats against LHP
If players are looking for bats from a lineup under four implied runs, they’re probably looking at the Cleveland lineup. David Price has been quite good lately, striking out 18 of his last 52 batters and owning a 3.42 SIERA and .311 xwOBA over the last month, while RHBs have just a .306 wOBA against him this year. He still pitches at Fenway and against a dangerous lineup this afternoon. In fact, six of the nine batters he faces are above a 125 wRC+ vs LHP over the last calendar year and Edwin Encarnacion (111 wRC+, .209 ISO) is not even one of them. High cost bats like Francisco Lindor (173 wRC+, .240 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (163 wRC+, .282 ISO) can be supplemented with much cheaper ones like Yandy Diaz (140 wRC+, .100 ISO), Brandon Guyer (127 wRC+, .193 ISO), or even a punt catcher like Roberto Perez (162 wRC+, .244 ISO).
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Yandy Diaz, Roberto Perez, Brandon Guyer, David Price So Much Contact Up Top
With the addition of Daniel Murphy, the Cubs can now roll out four lefties at the top of the order with contact rates above 84% against right-handed pitching that is going to make life tough on pitchers like Anthony Desclafani who have below average strikeouts against lefties. Desclafani has been pitching well recently, but is allowing a tremendous amount of hard contact to lefties this season at 41%, which has resulted in a .362 wOBA and .301 ISO against. They are all in play, but it’s Jason Heyward who has the lowest price point to get in play on the top of this Cubs order.
Only A Couple Places To Go
We’ve got a four-game slate, with two of them being played in pitchers parks with some poor offenses. The A’s and the Cubs are the stand out teams, and it will be hard to get away from them tonight. For Oakland, Khris Davis and Matt Olson would be my top looks, but Davis’ price tag and Olson’s 1B eligibility make them a little tougher to get in, so I’ll start with Matt Chapman to get top of the order exposure to Oakland with a batter who has 44% fly balls and 45% hard hits against righties to offset the lone skill of Kohl Stewart, ground balls. Chapman has the power to do his own damage and the on-base skills to take advantage of his lineup spot on what could be a high scoring team.
Detroit can offer bats or arms depending on lineup goals
Interestingly, the Tigers (4.68) and White Sox (4.32) are two of the three teams above four implied runs on Thursday afternoon. However, if players want exposure to the top offense on the slate, they’ll probably also have to consider exposure to either Matt Boyd or James Shields in this game, especially on DraftKings. Neither really exceeds a league average strikeout rate (Boyd 21.8%, Shields 18.2%), but Shields has failed to complete six innings just three times since April (once by a single out) and is facing an offense with a 78 wRC+ and 8.2 HR/FB vs RHP, while Boyd has a .291 xwOBA and 86.4 mph aEV and is in a higher upside matchup (White Sox 18+ K-BB% on the road and vs LHP). The other side of this is that players are going to need bats from this game if paying up for the top arms this afternoon. Avisail Garcia (160 wRC+, .244 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is the top overall bat from the Chicago side and very affordable. Ryan LaMarre and Jose Rondon both bat in the front five this afternoon. Neither has even 30 PAs against LHP, but both are below $3K on either site. Boyd has held RHBs to a .283 wOBA this season. The Detroit lineup has Nick Castellanos (118 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Jim Adduci (112 wRC+, .150 ISO) and Jeimer Candelario (98 wRC+, .166 ISO) all in the top half with only Castellanos above $4K on DraftKings. RHBs have a .325 wOBA against Shields this season, but LHBs have a .359 xwOBA, 60 points above their actual mark against him this season.
Other tagged players: Avisail Garcia, Jose Rondon, Ryan LaMarre, James Shields, Jeimer Candelario, Jim Adduci, Nick Castellanos Top offense is obvious, but lineup construction isn't
The Red Sox are the unquestioned top offense on the early slate with a 5.64 implied run line that’s a full run above the only other team above 4.4 runs this afternoon. Fenway is the most positive run environment on the slate by far. Adam Plutko has shown a massive platoon split in 48.2 major league innings. LHBs (.434 wOBA, 42.5 Hard%) are 190 points above RHBS by wOBA and 10 points by hard hit rate. Batters from either side are below a 30 GB%. While that doesn’t remove J.D. Martinez (198 wRC+, .395 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) or Mookie Betts (153 wRC+, .258 ISO) as elite bats on this board, it does add Andrew Benintendi (132 wRC+, .184 ISO) and Mitch Moreland (114 wRC+, .252 ISO) to their class. Xander Bogaerts (128 wRC+, .238 ISO) has a 272 wRC+ over the last seven days. The question is about affordability. If stacking this Boston lineup, then Madison Bumgarner and/or Matt Body are likely the only reasonable pitchers you’ll be able to afford.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland, Adam Plutko, Xander Bogaerts Looking for a Sneaky One-Off Play?
Cole Hamels has been great since joining the Cubs, but regression is going to kick in at some point. If you are looking for a sneaky one-off play tonight, give Suarez a peek. His splits against LHP are ridiculous this year with a .365 average, a .337 ISO, and a 1.174 OPS to go along with a .485 wOBA. Those are elite numbers, and he’s a great option in all formats tonight.
Looking to Fade the Cubs? Here's a Sneaky Top Offense...
Don’t sleep on the A’s tonight on this short four game slate. I expect the Cubs to carry the highest ownership, but Oakland draws a favorable matchup in their own right against Kohl Stewart and the Twins. Stewart used to be a top prospect, but his minor league numbers were underwhelming this year, and he has struggled in two big league starts with five walks to just three strikeouts in those outings. Oakland has enough thump in their lineup to make him pay, and the A’s still have plenty to play for right now. A case can be made for Khris Davis to be the top GPP bat on this slate with his .327 ISO against RHP this year. Lowrie, Chapman, and Olson also have strong power potential. This is a fine stack tonight.
Other tagged players: Jed Lowrie, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson Fire up the Lefty Bats
Anthony DeSclafani remains a pitcher with very wide splits. He has allowed a .361 wOBA, 40% hard contact rate, and 24% line drive rate to left-handed hitters this year, and his ground ball rate dips all the way to 33%. In contrast, he has held right-handed hitters to a .270 wOBA, with a sub-20% line drive rate and a reasonable 49% ground ball rate. I love the left-handed bats from the Cubs tonight, and I think the best way to stack them up in a GPP is to fade Javier Baez and be contrarian that way. This team will be popular, and I will differentiate by focusing solely on the LHBs in my stacks. Rizzo is clearly the safe option for cash games, but I like Kyle Schwarber for his upside with his .224 ISO against RHP this year. The Cubs should be able to do some damage here with the wind blowing out at Wrigley this evening.
Other tagged players: Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist, Daniel Murphy