DFS Alerts
Fill Up Your Middle Here
We have some loaded positions tonight, with 1B, 3B and OF being littered with high end talent in good matchups in all price ranges. But the middle infield is a bit tougher, and we have a couple of Dodgers in an ideal matchup at fair price points. Brian Dozier should be leading off against Clayton Richard and his 15.2% K rate to righties. His only skill is that moderate ground ball ability, that is not nearly as extreme to righties at just 53%. In addition to the low strikeouts, he has allowed 42% hard hits to righties, and for most of the last two months, he has completely lost his control as well. Dozier makes contact, and will take a walk if Richard’s control is off again. He also has the fly ball ability to offset the ground balls, as do all of the top six batters in the Dodgers lineup. The on base and run scoring upside alone is worth this salary tonight.
A Fine GPP Pivot in the Mid-Range
We have almost nothing to love as far as cheap arms tonight, and I’ll find it difficult to go below Godley or Hill as my SP # 2 choice. Hill will be the popular option, but Godley deserves a look. BABIP luck bit him in his last start against the Padres on a night where he was very chalky, so you can bet the ownership will be lower tonight. However, his peripherals still look fine with a 36/8 K/BB ratio over his last 32 innings (six starts), and the upside potential is there. This is a relatively neutral matchup against Seattle, but Godley is definitely on my GPP radar this evening thanks to how ugly the slate is from a pitching perspective.
The Top Option on an Ugly Slate for Arms
The pitching options we have available tonight leave a lot to be desired, but Foltynewicz carries the most upside of the group. He draws a matchup against a weak Marlins team that is playing the younger guys at this point in the season, and Folty owns a 28.2% strikeout rate for the year. His 3.68 SIERA and 3.61 xFIP are just fine, and I like the matchup tonight against a team where he knows he can be aggressive. If you have the salary to spend, he should be your SP #1 choice in tournaments.
Surprise, This Is A Good Play
It should be no mystery that I would like Matt Carpenter at Coors Field against a low strikeout righty. However, the salary is so tough on DK/FDRFT, that I’m only going to call him a Core Play on FanDuel tonight. There are a lot of good high end bats on this slate, so it’s less of a must play here than it would be on a different day. But we’re looking at a guy with a .310 ISO on a huge 50% hard hit rate and 51% fly ball rate going into the altitude where hard hit balls in the air get even more of a boost than they would already have in any environment. If you can afford him, play him.
Everything Lines Up Here
This is a tricky slate where we don’t have a lot of cheap pitching worth considering, which will make the high end bats tougher to get. On DK/FDRT, that $5k/$10k barrier will be tough to get past. I’m not going to mark guys like Matt Carpenter and Charlie Blackmon as Core Plays tonight on those sites because of the salaries, but of course, play them if you can. Manny Machado gives us a flawless skill set at a better salary in an ideal matchup and at a weak SS position. Machado is facing a low strikeout lefty whose only skill is moderate 53% ground balls. Machado has the fly ball ability to offset that at 44% FB to go along with 41% hard hits and extremely low 7.5% strikeouts.
We've Got To Play Somebody
This is an awful pitching slate, but there are three guys up top that make the most sense, all in favorable matchups. Mike Foltynewicz at Miami, Mike Clevinger at Kansas City and Rich Hill against the Padres. For raw points, I would have a lean to Folty, but the salary discount to Rich Hill is meaningful enough on all sites to make him the top option. The right-handed power risk from San Diego is offset by the fact that all of those right-handed power threats are also high strikeout batters, where Hill has a high 28% K rate to righties. The pitch count is always a bit of a concern with Dodgers pitchers, but he threw 111 pitches last time out, and has been above 90 pitches in six of his last seven starts. On a slate with no one to love, Hill is someone to like.
Weather is not an issue on Thursday
Thursday’s forecast has been updated and there are no weather issues. The full report is now available on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can further updates from Kevin on conditions around the league on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
Top strikeout and ground ball rate on the board
Trevor Cahill has the top strikeout rate (24.9%) of any pitcher with more than five starts tonight and has a 53.4 GB% to go with it (also best on the board with more than two starts). He’s in a somewhat marginal spot (Twins 97 wRC+, 21.5 K% vs RHP) at a marginal ($8K on FD) to slightly elevated cost ($9.2K on DK) and is certainly someone players should consider tonight. He’s gone at least six innings with two runs or less in three of his last four starts with Eddie Rosario (134 wRC+, .252 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) the only truly imposing bat in the opposing lineup. If not using Cahill though, Rosario is the only Minnesota bat above $4K on DraftKings or $3.3K on FanDuel. Jake Cave (113 wRC+, .192 ISO) and Joe Mauer (103 wRC+, .110 ISO) may have some value.
Hard hitting offense gets a park upgrade
The Oakland A’s get a park upgrade in Minnesota tonight. That the park boosts specifically RH power is a special benefit for the team that has the top implied run line (5.44) by a fraction of a run over the Cubs tonight. Kohl Stewart is a marginally regarded prospect, but had just a 17.5 K% in 40.2 AAA innings this year and has walked more (five) than he’s struck out (three) over his first two major league starts. Of his 27 batted balls, 17 have been on the ground with one popup, but 40.7% of them have an exit velocity above 95 mph. If you don’t know what the A’s do, they hit the ball HARD. Matt Olson (137 wRC+, .301 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Matt Chapman (129 wRC+, .229 ISO), Khris Davis (149 wRC+, .311 ISO) and Stephen Piscotty (100 wRC+, .183 ISO) all have a hard hit rate above 40% vs RHP over the last calendar year. Nick Martini (132 wRC+, .130 ISO) and Jed Lowrie (139 wRC+, .213 ISO) exceed the league average hard hit rate as well.
Other tagged players: Matt Chapman, Stephen Piscotty, Matt Olson, Kohl Stewart, Nick Martini, Jed Lowrie Lefties Up Top
With the addition of Daniel Murphy, the Cubs can now roll out even more contact batters against right-handed pitching that is going to make life tough on pitchers like Anthony Desclafani who have below average strikeouts against lefties. Desclafani has been pitching well recently, but is allowing a tremendous amount of hard contact to lefties this season at 41%, which has resulted in a .362 wOBA and .301 ISO against. Daniel Murphy will lead off tonight with his low 7.1% strikeout rate, which along with 29% line drives have given him a .364 wOBA against righties this season. He will be setting the table for one of the top offenses of the night.
Home run prone pitcher facing high powered lineup
The Cubs will host the home run prone Anthony DeSclafani (15 HRs in 13 starts), against whom LHBs have a .361 wOBA this season. Six of the eight bats the Cubs will meet him with bat from that side. Four of the first six batters in the order exceed a .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year, the exceptions being Daniel Murphy (142 wRC+, .171 ISO) and Ben Zobrist (133 wRC+, .189 ISO). Aside from Javier Baez (121 wRC+, .252 ISO) and Anthony Rizzo (138 wRC+, .222 ISO), Cubs bats are not even that expensive. One of just two teams above five implied runs (5.35), the home team here should be very popular.
Other tagged players: Javier Baez, Daniel Murphy, Ben Zobrist, Anthony DeSclafani Pitching well since the trade, but not always the most consistent
Cole Hamels has allowed two ERs (three runs total) in four starts for the Cubs. He’s struck out nine twice (Pirates, Nationals), but a total of five in his other two starts (Pirates, Royals). One never can tell what he’s going to do game to game, but he has walked just six without allowing a HR and even Wrigley has to be better than Texas. RHBs do have a .330 wOBA against him this season and that’s not all Texas either as their xwOBA against him is actually 20 points higher. Hamels is a viable pitching candidate on a four game slate, but may end up oversold. There are some flaws here. His 88.5 mph aEV is second highest on the board, his strikeout rate is only 23% and he’s the most expensive pitcher on the board by a wide margin on either site. Since Hamels can occasionally blow up with the best of them, there is some merit in considering at least Eugenio Suarez (180 wRC+, .295 ISO) vs LHP last calendar year) and perhaps Jose Peraza (107 wRC+, .125 ISO) and Phillip Ervin (156 wRC+, .216 ISO) as well. Hamels is also a top stolen base target as noted by our Stolen Base Threat Ratings (premium subscription required).
Other tagged players: Eugenio Suarez, Jose Peraza, Phillip Ervin Some well projected bats in a difficult park
Elieser Hernandez has been working out of the pen for the Marlins since his last start in June. He’s gone three innings in each of his last two outings, but hasn’t reached 40 pitches in over a month, which puts his cap at around four or five innings most likely, if he even gets that far. He has a 16.1 K% and 5.24 SIERA, though a respectable .338 xwOBA and 87.1 mph aEV. The Braves are one of the top projected offense tonight, but their 4.87 implied run line a distant third on this board, likely due to the extremely negative run environment. Players should consider some Atlanta exposure, since LHBs have a .389 wOBA against Hernandez this season, but keep the park effects in mind when paying up for Freddie Freeman (134 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP last calendar year). Ender Inciarte (99 wRC+, .130 ISO) is more affordably available in between Freeman and the hottest Atlanta bat, Ronald Acuna (149 wRC+, .280 ISO).
Other tagged players: Ronald Acuna, Ender Inciarte, Elieser Hernandez Missing bats and extending outings
The Royals don’t strike out much against RHP (20.2%), but greatly lack the capacity to do much damage either (85 wRC+, 9.6 HR/FB vs RHP). Tyler Glasnow was roughed up by Boston in his last start (who isn’t?), but pitched into the seventh inning, throwing 94 pitches and had previously struck out 20 of 43 batters since being traded. Glasnow’s price is rising on DraftKings ($8.4K), but still potentially a bargain if the Rays are going to let him throw 100 pitches. He’s just $6.3K and clearly the top value on FanDuel. Interest in Kansas City bats should be minimal to non-existent.
One bat with power in this lineup against homer prone southpaw
Danny Duffy has allowed at least six runs in three of his last four starts and his velocity plummeted to 90 mph in his last start. The teams to punish him have been the Cards, Twins and Tigers, while he shut out the White Sox for 5.2 innings, but walked four in that start. The Rays sit in the middle of the board at 4.28 implied runs and RHBs have a major advantage against Duffy (.347 wOBA with 20 HRs this season), which sets up well for C.J. Cron (117 wRC+, .203 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), one of just two RHBs in the lineup above a 100 wRC+ against LHP over the last calendar year (Matt Duffy 101) and the only one above a .160 ISO against them. While an argument may be able to be made for other Tampa Bay bats considering how bad Duffy’s been, Cron is the clear play here.
Other tagged players: Matt Duffy, Danny Duffy