DFS Alerts

Early four game slate is absolutely loaded with pitching.

Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola. One of them is going to win the NL Cy Young. All three of them are also available on a four game Thursday afternoon slate. Scherzer (34.5 K%, 2.71 SIERA, .260 xwOBA, 86 mph aEV) and Nola (25.4 K%, 3.54 SIERA, 50.5 GB%, .264 xwOBA, 85.6 mph aEV) take on each other. For the season, Washington has the much better numbers, including a strikeout rate five more than five points lower vs RHP and in the home/road splits. However, the Phillies have added to their lineup over the last month, while the Nationals have subtracted. Both lineups are still fairly deep at this point though. The Giants (75 wRC+, 17.3 K-BB%, 10 HR/FB on the road, 16.1 K-BB%, 9.7 HR/FB vs RHP, 30 wRC+, 22.1 K-BB%, 4.0 HR/FB are a very empty lineup. That’s the team that has to face deGrom (31.2 K%, 2.89 SIERA, .255 xwOBA, 85.5 mph aEV) in New York. Considering matchups and parks, deGrom is probably the top overall arm on the slate, followed by Scherzer with Nola trailing by quite a bit in terms of projected daily fantasy performance. That makes deGrom the top value as well. He costs a couple of hundred less than Scherzer on FanDuel ($12K), but $400 more ($11.9K) on DraftKings). These are the pitchers players should be using this afternoon, especially with ownership likely being divided with all three on the slate. Players are very unlikely able to fit two of these arms in their DraftKings lineup. That’s where Madison Bumgarner (20 K%, 4.57 SIERA, .320 xwOBA, 86.4 mph aEV) comes in for just $7.5K against the Mets (80 wRC+ at home and vs LHP, 8.6 HR/FB at home, 25.4 K% vs LHP).

A Fine Matchup to Get Back on Track

Newcomb hasn’t been at his best over his last few starts, but he draws a fine landing spot here tonight against a Marlins team that is in full “rebuild with the youngsters” mode at this point. They have also been awful against left-handed pitching this year, and that is not likely to change down the stretch. Newcomb carries a reasonable price tag thanks to his recent struggles, so the point per dollar potential is there in this favorable matchup. It all comes down to command for him, and I expect him to be more aggressive against a weaker lineup. He’s a safe play in all formats on this short slate Thursday.

Your Upside Pivot Away from Chalky Glasnow

Sometimes, you have to be different in order to win on these short slates. The whole world is going to be using Tyler Glasnow on this slate, but we’ve seen what can happen with Glasnow. He’s absolutely capable of dominating a weak Royals lineup tonight, but I am less concerned about the opponent than I am the ownership. Glasnow is going to be massive chalk, and the first person capable of defeating Tyler Glasnow is Tyler Glasnow himself. His command deteriorated in his last start, and we know he’s capable of racking up walks and high pitch counts in a hurry. It’s a risky fade, but a calculated one on a short slate. I’ll swerve to Cahill as my upside option. He has looked good since returning from injury, carries a 25% strikeout rate for the year, and has a SIERA and xFIP in the mid-threes. He’s a fine upside pivot in a matchup against the Twins.

The Biggest Upside

Tyler Glasnow is far and away the biggest strikeout pitcher on this slate tonight, with a 30.9% K rate on the season that is a full 6% ahead of his next closest competitor. The walks are still an issue, and this is not a safe play by any means, but this is a slate where there is no sure fire ace, so taking on a little risk for upside is more acceptable. Glasnow got up to 94 pitches last time out, so while there is still some concern around the pitch count, he looks to be close to a full starter workload. The matchup is a plus at home against a Royals team that doesn’t like to take a lot of walks, to help offset his biggest weakness. On FD, he is way too cheap and playable in all formats. On DK/FDRFT, the salary is more appropriate, but still the highest points per dollar upside on this slate.

Great Spot To Get Back On Track

It’s been two tough starts in a row for Newcomb, but I love this spot for him to get back on track tonight. He’s projected to face six righties, as well as a pitcher’s spot tonight. Newcomb has a .302 wOBA with a .106 ISO and a 20.4% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season, while the projected starters for the Marlins have a .148 ISO with a .315 wOBA against left-handed pitching. This is a massive ballpark shift for Newcomb, and with that ballpark limiting the downside, Newcomb will be my highest owned pitcher on this slate.

Wil Myers (nose) scratched Wednesday; Jose Pirela replaces

Myers has been scratched from the San Diego Padres original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the Colorado Rockies due to a nose laceration he sustained during batting practice. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Jose Pirela, who will play second base and slot directly into Myers’ vacated second spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Padres lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Jon Gray on the road at Coors Field this evening.

One Of Each Ace

As the day moves on, I’ve switched my DK/FDRFT preference for top pitcher to Noah Syndergaard over Walker Buehler, based on the Giants just being a less imposing offense than St. Louis. I still prefer the FanDuel salary gap towards Buehler, at least in cash games. Syndergaard is still waiting for those strikeouts to perk back up, maybe they do, maybe they don’t, but he is piling up soft contact along with elite control giving him a solid floor, and with his stuff and all the swinging strikes, the upside is in there.

Some rain potential without major concern for Wednesday

Wednesday’s forecast has been updated without much serious concern, but some rain potential in spots. The full forecast can be read on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can get the latest info from Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.

Odrisamer Despaigne lasted four innings in Texas in his first start for the Angels. A contact prone pitcher, LHBs have a .340 career wOBA against him with RHBs at .308 and it’s much the same this year with 20 or his 24 innings coming out of the bullpen for the Marlins. Each of the first five batters in the order for the Diamondbacks have at least a 120 wRC+ with an ISO above .200 against RHP over the last calendar year. With the exception of Daniel Descalso (120 wRC+, .206 ISO) on FanDuel ($2.7K), these are all very expensive bats, but likely worth their price. Special attention should be paid to David Peralta (150 wRC+, .249 ISO) and Eduardo Escobar (142 wRC+, .311 ISO).

Marginally projected offense could offer some top of the order value

Interesting to note that while RHBs have a .319 wOBA against Jon Lester this season, they have a .365 xwOBA. Lester pitched well in his last outing at Pittsburgh, but threw a ton of fastballs there were taken for strikes. The Tigers actually have three proficient bats against LHP over the last calendar year right at the top of the lineup: Jeimer Candelario (124 wRC+, .200 ISO), Jose Iglesias (139 wRC+, .200 ISO) and Nick Castellanos (187 wRC+, .221 ISO). Yes, THAT Jose Iglesias. Each of the first two batters are below $4K on DK.

Top LHB at Coors may not be Blackmon (but still use him anyway)

Jacob Nix has never been above a 21 K% at any level of the minors and had just six innings above AA when the Padres called him up. He pitched well against the Phillies without allowing a run in six innings, but lasted just 10 batters against the Diamondbacks last time out. His third start will be at Coors and the Rockies are a full run above the only other team above five implied runs tonight at 6.5. Believe it or not, Carlos Gonzalez (135 wRC+, .244 ISO) has better numbers than Charlie Blackmon (113 wRC+, .233 ISO) against RHP over the last calendar year, but play all your Rockies…except maybe Tony Wolters (32 wRC+, .090 ISO). Remember that the Padres have the top bullpen in baseball over the last 30 days though (2.91 FIP, 23.3 K-BB%)

Elite bats mixed with value plays all hit LHP hard

Great park, marginal LHP (RHBs ..327 wOBA, .348 xwOBA this season). This is your daily reminder to use Francisco Lindor (171 wRC+, .237 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Jose Ramirez (161 wRC+, .280 ISO) in your daily fantasy lineups. The Indians have an implied run line of just 4.56 at Fenway, but it’s still fifth best on the board. More affordable exposure to this lineup can be found with Yandy Diaz (139 wRC+, .104 iSO), Brandon Guyer (127 wRC+, .194 ISO) and Yan Gomes (140 wRC+, .252 ISO).

Despite low team total, two quality bats against pitcher with platoon issues

Left-handed batters have a .329 wOBA, but .372 xwOBA against Julio Teheran this year. The Pirates have a run line below four (3.94), but Pittsburgh plays fairly neutral for left-handed offense and power. Corey Dickerson (122 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Gregory Polanco (120 wRC+, .243 ISO) at least merit some consideration. Interesting to note that not a single player in the Pittsburgh lineup has a hard hit rate above 27% over the last week though.

Still a few LHBs in this lineup against a pitcher with platoon issues

The Nationals have the third highest run line on the board tonight at 4.74. Zack Eflin has really struggled against LHBs (.340 wOBA), but has dominated RHBs (.266 wOBA) with Statcast supporting both numbers within 10 points by xwOBA. The Nationals did just trade away two potent LHBs, which would have lengthened the lineup tonight, but still do have three highly capable ones in Adam Eaton (129 wRC+, .117 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Bryce Harper (132 wRC+, .272 ISO), and Juan Soto (144 wRC+, .216 ISO). The rookie phenom seems to have hit his first slump of the season with just a 28 wRC+ over the last week though.

Sneaky power bat spot

The Rays have just a 4.06 implied run line in a negative run environment, but are facing a pitcher who has allowed 9.3% Barrels/BBE and 26 HRs this season, 16 of them in a power suppressing home park. Tampa Bay actually gives LHBs a slight power boost and the three spot hitter for the Rays is Ji-Man Choi (128 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), who costs just $3.6K on DK and over $1K less on FD. While LHBs have a .351 wOBA against Junis that’s 23 points higher than RHBs, he’s allowed four more HRs to same-handed batters. Although the park suppresses RH power slightly, C.J. Cron (114 wRC+, .231 ISO) is an alternate first base option. Both men exceed a 200 wRC+ over the last week.