DFS Alerts
Boston Red Sox have the top implied run line on the board (5.77)
The Boston Red Sox have a board high 5.77 implied run line (by nearly a half run) at home against Daniel Mengden. Mengden is not a terrible pitcher, but has a 90.1 mph aEV this season with batters from either side of the plate above a 38% hard hit rate. That’s a dangerous tendency in the most positive run environment on the board in Boston. J.D. Martinez (153 wRC+, .344 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Mookie Betts (109 wRC+, .214 ISO) are the obvious bats with Hanley Ramirez (99 wRC+, .180 ISO), Mitch Moreland (113 wRC+, .241 ISO), Eduardo Nunez (123 wRC+, .180 ISO) and Andrew Benintendi (111 wRC+, .178 ISO) in support.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Daniel Mengden, Mitch Moreland, Hanley Ramirez, Eduardo Nunez, Andrew Benintendi
A Worthy Spend
With all the rain issues on the East Coast, I wanted to find another option as a Core Play, in the event that we lose a couple of these games. The Indians are a team that is certain to get runners on base against the high walks of Francisco Liriano, as well as a tired and already weak Detroit bullpen. Ramirez is the best option to spend up for with his elite combination of contact and hard hit ability leading to a .255 ISO and .392 wOBA against lefties.
Francisco Lindor (356 wRC+ last seven days) bats cleanup against Francisco Liriano
The Cleveland Indians have dropped below five implied runs to a current 4.78 total (about a quarter run drop since this afternoon), but have several potent bats to face off against Francisco Liriano (RHBs .363 wOBA since last season) even without Edwin Encarnacion. Francisco Lindor (146 wRC+, .237 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) moves into the cleanup spot. He has a 356 wRC+ and 61.9 Hard% over the last week. Jose Ramirez (167 wRC+, .298 ISO) has been even more potent against southpaws. Yan Gomes (119 wRC+, .248 ISO) and even Brandon Guyer (115 wRC+, .157 ISO) may be considered value plays. Rajai Davis (68 wRC+, .101 ISO) costs less than $3K in the leadoff spot with any value he has tied to his steal potential. Premium subscribers can gain an advantage in an often overlooked part of the game with the new Stolen Base Threat Ratings.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Stolen Base Threat Ratings Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Yan Gomes, Brandon Guyer, Francisco Liriano Phillies have an 5.31 implied run line without a batter priced above $4.4K
The Philadelphia Phillies have a 5.31 implied run line that’s second best on the board in Baltimore against Andrew Cashner (6.9 SwStr%, .401 xwOBA, 12.4% Barrels/BBE this season). The incredible thing is that a top five stack seems extremely viable tonight without a batter above $4.4K on either site and Nick Williams (105 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) below $3K on either site. Carlos Santana (122 wRC+, .231 ISO) has a 241 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week. Odubel Herrera (132 wRC+, .189 ISO) and Rhys Hoskins (150 wRC+, .289 ISO) are both $4.4K at their higher price points as well. While RHBs have just a .307 wOBA against Cashner since last season, xwOBA brings batters from either side up to just below .350. Of course, weather may still be an issue in this game.
Other tagged players: Andrew Cashner, Nick Williams, Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera Justin Turner makes his return for less than $4K against a lefty (.436 ISO last calendar year)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have been slumping 75 wRC+ and travel across country from one negative run environment to another in Miami with just a 4.27 implied run line tonight, but face a pitcher who has a .393 xwOBA in three starts. Wei-Yin Chen has missed most of the last two seasons due to injury, but the 143 RHBs he’s faced have a .364 wOBA and 34.6 Hard% against him. Perhaps the return of Justin Turner (242 wRC+, .436 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) will get this team going, but it’s a great spot to pick him up for less than $4K against a southpaw. Austin Barnes (136 wRC+, ,228 ISO) continues to be much too cheap as well ($2.2K on FD) along with Kike Hernandez (137 wRC+, .258 ISO) ($2.4K on FD).
Other tagged players: Austin Barnes, Wei-Yin Chen, Enrique Hernandez Josh Tomlin has a board high .477 xwOBA and 13.5% Barrels/BBE
The Detroit Tigers have just a 4.44 implied run line and not a lot of bats many people often think about in terms of daily fantasy value, but they are facing one of the hardest hit pitchers on the board tonight. Josh Tomlin has a board high .477 xwOBA and 13.5% Barrels/BBE with a 90.5 mph aEV with just an 11% strikeout rate. Nick Castellanos (107 wRC+, .194 ISO) and John Hicks (102 wRC+, .183 ISO) are the only two even average hitters against RHP over the last calendar year, but that fits perfectly with Tomlin’s failure against same-handed batters (.349 wOBA, .373 xwOBA, 35.5 Hard%, 36.4 GB% since last season). Niko Goodrum (94 wRC+, .224 ISO) has a 329 wRC+ with three HRs (17 PAs) over the last seven days. Tigers are cheap with only Castellanos reaching above $3.4K on either site.
Other tagged players: Josh Tomlin, John Hicks, Niko Goodrum Under-owned Power at First Base
Solely thanks to the fact that Brandon Belt plays on the Giants, he is routinely under-owned in DFS contests. He’s cheap across the industry and currently owns a .438 xwOBA against right-handed pitching. He draws a favorable matchup against Tyler Mahle, who has allowed a .405 xwOBA and a 44% hard contact rate to lefties this season.
High Floor at Third Base
Matt Duffy doesn’t have great numbers against left or right-handed pitching this season, but if you pull up his game log, he has been incredibly consistent. The Rays draw one of the top matchups of the slate, as they square off against Ian Kennedy. On the season, Kennedy has allowed a .399 xwOBA with a 43% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. The Rays’ lineup has already been released and Duffy is batting clean-up.
Ace Hardware is having a Sale
Gerrit Cole is a great play if you can afford him. If you’d rather spend up on your bats while gaining access to a pitcher with a high ceiling, Noah Syndergaard is a great pivot. On the season, he owns a 3.10 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% on the season. He draws the best matchup of the three expensive pitching options, as he gets to face a right-handed heavy Blue Jays’ lineup at home. Toronto’s projected lineup has an average strikeout rate of 26% and that doesn’t include the pitcher (Jaime Garcia), who should be good for a couple of strikeouts.
The O's are a year late on Nick Pivetta's reverse split (RHBs .252 wOBA, 28.9 K-BB%, 0.0 Hard-Soft% this year)
Nothing gets by Buck Showalter. The Baltimore Orioles have a top four implied run line (5.17) and he is all over that Nick Pivetta reverse split. Right-handed batters had a .409 wOBA, 13.7 K-BB% and 27.5 K-BB% against last year. The Orioles begin the lineup with five straight right-handed batters before closing it with four lefties. He’s also a year late. Right-handed batters have just a .252 wOBA, 28.9 K-BB% and 0.0 Hard-Soft% against Pivetta this year. It’s a power friendly park with favorable hitting conditions (if it plays) according to Kevin’s early forecast, while the Orioles have a league high 159 wRC+ over the last week. It could certainly work out favorably for them, but the approach may work in favor of Pivetta against a team with a 16.9 K-BB% vs RHP.
Pittsburgh has a team 124 wRC+ at home, 152 wRC+ last seven days and top five implied run line (4.88) tonight
Reynaldo Lopez has some talent, but one never knows when it’s going to show up. He has decreased his walks to just four over his last three starts and even struck out six Pirates in his last start. None the less, a Pittsburgh team with a 124 team wRC+ at home this season and 152 wRC+ over the last seven days has a top five implied run line (4.88) at home against him. Left-handed batters have a .339 wOBA and .377 xwOBA against him since last season. Gregory Polanco (98 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is one of five batters in the lineup above a 190 wRC+ over the last week and is the most expensive LHB at $4K on DraftKings. Corey Dickerson (113 wRC+, .219 ISO) is the top power bat and costs $100 less than that on either site. Colin Moran (130 wRC+, .399 xwOBA, .171 ISO) bats seventh, but probably deserves a lineup bump at this point. Nobody in the lineup has a higher wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: Gregory Polanco, Reynaldo Lopez, Colin Moran
Daily Bullpen Alert: Detroit bullpen has the second worst xFIP (4.62) in the majors
While the three rookies (Anthony Banda, Jaime Barria, and Jack Flaherty) are the only three arms to average less than five innings per start over the last two calendar years on today’s board, those are very small sample sizes. The Rays have an average bullpen behind Banda and Matt Andriese on a couple days rest, likely available for multiple innings tonight. The St Louis Cardinals also have a league average pen (3.96 FIP) behind Flaherty. Barria has completed six innings in just one of four starts and is unlikely to do so a second against Houston. The Angles have a 4.19 FIP that’s towards the bottom of the board, but a 13.6 K-BB% in the middle. These are the bullpens perhaps most likely to see the most work tonight. However, Miami, Kansas City, and Detroit could get in some work behind pitchers who haven’t gone deep very often lately. Kansas City, of course, has the worst bullpen in the majors with a negative fWAR and a 6.2 K-BB% that’s the only single digit mark in the majors. The Marlins have a nearly identical 4.19 FIP and 13.5 K-BB% as the Angels, neither a strength or a great source of weakness. The Detroit pen has a 4.08 FIP, but 4.62 xFIP (second worst) with an 11.0 K-BB% that’s fourth worst in the majors. Francisco Liriano has averaged just over five innings per start the last two calendar years and has failed to complete six innings in three of his seven starts this year.
Other tagged players: Anthony Banda, Jack Flaherty, Jaime Barria Eduardo Rodriguez ($7.8K on FD) has the second best K rate on the board (29.8%)
While the highest priced guys are probably the best pitchers tonight, there doesn’t mean there’s no value below $10K. It just comes with more risk. Eduardo Rodriguez takes on an Oakland offense that hits the ball hard in the most positive run environment on the board at Fenway, but his 29.8 K% is second best on the board and his reverse split might actually help against a predominantly right-handed lineup. A pair of rookies (Anthony Banda, Jack Flaherty) could be useful at low prices tonight. Both have some swing and miss ability. Banda has had at least a 21 K% at every stop above Rookie ball since 2014. Flaherty has a 32.5 K% at AAA this season. Masahiro Tanaka and Gio Gonzalez face each other in a dangerous matchup for both sides, but both are below $9K. The Yankees have 17.6 HR/FB, but 23.7 K% vs LHP and Gonzalez has a 52.4 GB%. Tanaka has had a rough run of starts that includes Boston twice, Houston and LA (AL). It doesn’t get much easier tonight, but his SwStr rate remains elite despite a drop in strikeouts, leading one to believe he may now be under-valued. Nick Pivetta is in a dangerous spot in Baltimore (both due to home team power and the threat of rain), but has dropped his wOBA against RHBs by 150 points this year and costs less than $8K. For those with substantial risk tolerance, Mike Leake has a 19.5 K% (10.3 SwStr%) over the last month. He’s facing a Texas offense with a 79 wRC+ and split high 27.2 K% vs RHP tonight. His opponent, Mike Minor, costs $6.5K or less. His only two starts outside Texas this season have been in Toronto and Houston, not exactly great spots. Players may need one of these lower cost arms to pair with Gerrit Cole.
Other tagged players: Anthony Banda, Jack Flaherty, Gio Gonzalez, Masahiro Tanaka, Nick Pivetta, Mike Leake, Mike Minor, Gerrit Cole Alex Wood has the second lowest xwOBA (.270) on the board and a career high 18.7 K-BB%
There are four pitchers on tonight’s slate who reach the $10K price point on either site with Gerrit Cole and Noah Syndergaard the only two to get there on both sites. Cole has a double digit lead on the next highest strikeout rate (41.4%). His last start against the Angels resulted in seven innings with two runs and eight strikeouts. It was his second lowest strikeout total of the season (Angels 19.7 K%) vs RHP and he may need to do better with a price tag reaching $13.9K on DraftKings. Even with this matchup, he still likely has the highest strikeout upside on the board. Syndergaard has struggled with his fastball the last two times out, walking four batters for only the fourth time in his career against the Rockies. His cost is below $11K on either site now and his secondaries (slider, curve, change) still get whiffs 33% of the time or more according to Statcast. He has a career 25.2 K-BB% at home and faces a Toronto team with a 24.4 K% vs RHP and no DH tonight. Zack Greinke continues to miss bats (27.2 K%, 12.8 SwStr%), but has a hard hit rate above 40% in five straight starts. He gains an advantage against the Brewers (24.6 K% vs RHP) with a functioning humidor, but he also has the largest price discrepancy on the board with a DraftKings cost $2.3K above FanDuel. Alex Wood has the top overall matchup among the higher cost arms today when he faces the Marlins (94 wRC+ vs LHP) in Miami (84 wRC+ at home). His price just reaches $10K on DraftKings ($8.6K on FD). He’s not regained last season’s early velocity, but an 18.7 K-BB% is a career high, which he’s accomplishing with fewer sinkers (42%) and more changeups (30%). His .270 xwOBA is second best on the board. While there may be concern about his workload, only six pitchers on the board have averaged more innings per start over the last two calendar years. He doesn’t often go past six, but usually gets to that point.
Other tagged players: Gerrit Cole, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Greinke Great Spot To Target
We have seen Mike Leake been awful at times this season, so I’m attacking him with some of these Texas bats. Joey Gallo is my favorite bat from Texas, but I really like Choo at this price tag. He has a 45.9% hard hit rate against righties this season, to go with a very impressive 4% IFFB%. Leake has a .343 wOBA with a 12.6% strikeout rate and a 25.9% hard to soft contact ratio against left-handed hitters this season. Leake’s groundball rate has saved him throughout his career, but that’s just not been the case so far in 2018.
