DFS Alerts
Attack This Pitcher With Righties
Hernandez has always been a lot better against lefties than righties and draws a really good matchup tonight against Chen. He has a .288 ISO with a .378 wOBA and a 39.2% hard hit rate against lefties since the start of 2017. He also has an above average walk rate, which with his other numbers tells me he sees the ball really well against lefties. Chen has struggled since returning from injury this season. Since the start of 2017, he has a .361 wOBA with a 50.5% fly ball rate and a 34.6% hard hit rate against right-handed hitters. I think the Dodgers righties are in a good spot, and Justin Turner being back should help that lineup quite a bit.
High Contact Rate
Brandon Guyer should hit fifth for the Indians and draws a great matchup against Liriano, who has really struggled with right-handed hitters this season. He has a 14.2% walk rate compared to his 13.3% strikeout rate against righties. The Indians set up as a good offense to target tonight, and if Guyer hits fifth, he should have some strong RBI opportunities. He has a .233 ISO with a .384 CXwOBA against left-handed pitching this season with an above average walk rate and strikeout rate. With his high contact rate against lefties, I think Guyer is a great source of value.
Let's Try This Again
Figuring out Jose Berrios has been extremely tough this season, but I’m going right back to the well tonight. His wOBA is under .290, his strikeout rate is over 21%, and his hard to soft contact ratio is -0.7%. The Cardinals project to have six right-handed hitters in the lineup tonight, and Berrios profiles really well against right-handed hitters. He has a 27.7% soft contact rate with a 2.2% walk rate and 23.1% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season.
Time to Refocus
It’s hard not to sprinkle some Yu in GPP lineups despite how bad he has been this year. Additionally, this is far from a good matchup as he’ll take on a potent Braves offense that doesn’t strike out much in hitter friendly SunTrust Park. So why even play Yu? Basically just rolling the dice that his short DL stint gave him time to figure out what he has been doing wrong to start the year. While Darvish has been bad (4.11 SIERA) he hasn’t been nearly as bad as his 6.00 ERA indicates. Darvish still possesses some strikeout upside (26.4 K%) and gets pitcher friendly ump Brian Gorman behind the dish on Tuesday night.
Upside in the Price Tag
Berrios has hit a wall after an extremely impressive start to the season. Despite his lack of success over his last four games there is little doubt in my mind that Berrios is a talented young pitcher. Berrios has been unimpressive in the strikeout department this year (21.4 K%) but part of that can be blamed on his latest three game stretch where he has only totaled four strikeouts over 14.1 IP. This isn’t a strong strikeout matchup against the Cardinals who are 23rd in the league in strikeout rate versus RHP (20.4%) but there is still some upside in Berrios’ cheap tag.
Uncomfortable At SP
They’ll be chalky, but rightfully so. The Red Sox own the highest implied run total on the slate and it’s crept up since the line opened. Mengden is far from the worst pitcher on this slate, but is simply overpowered in this matchup. Martinez has hit a HR in back-to-back game and remains reasonably priced on DraftKings and is the best pt/$ way to get exposure to the Red Sox. You’ll have to get creative if stacking the Sox as their high price tags will make you roster some uncomfortable options at SP.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez Cheap With Strikeout Upside
Anthony Banda will be making his first start of the season, and I really like this spot for him. He pitched with Arizona in 2017 and had some tough matchups in very friendly hitter’s ballparks. He’s posted a 13.4% swinging strike rate with a 27.9% strikeout rate in 36 innings in AAA this season. He throws a 92-95mph fastball and has an above average changeup. Outside of Merrifield and Soler, the Royals have struggled with left-handed pitching this season. The projected starters have a .150 ISO with a .326 wOBA and a 25.2% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. I like the upside here, and I’m willing to roll the dice at his price.
Dong Seeker
Basic Stacking 101: Look for teams that will hit HRs. Because SafeCo is a pitcher’s park, people often overlook the fact that it is actually slightly above average when it comes to the long ball. That typically leads to lower ownership on players playing at SafeCo, which is good news for Rangers hitters as they get a favorable HR matchup against Mike Leake. Leake owns the second highest xWOBA on the slate (.426, behind Josh Tomlin @ .477) and has given up 7 HRs over 45 IP already this year. I absolutely love this matchup for Gallo who I will be using a lot as a “filler” for other stacks.
Other tagged players: Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara Hot Take Tuesday
Call it a hot take. Call it a gut feeling. Call it whatever you want but a Diamondbacks stack is winning someone a GPP tonight. I typically don’t like to come out swinging that hard, or make plays based off a gut feeling, but I’ll definitely be overweight on Diamondbacks hitters in GPPs on Tuesday night. The Diamondbacks are a bit short handed with Lamb still rehabbing and Pollock unlikely to play Tuesday night (considered DTD) so guys like Jarrod Dyson, Daniel Descalso, and Steven Souza should hit toward the top of the order and are super cheap, allowing you to pair your DBacks stack with higher priced SP. The matchup versus Jhoulys Chacin is a good one as Chacin has been walking hitters (10.6%) at a rate similar to striking out (14.6%) hitters. His 5.39 SIERA indicates his 4.00 ERA is likely unsustainable as he’s done a poor job of creating soft contact (15.6%). Dyson and Souza are so cheap on FanDuel that they are playable in cash games should they bat toward the top of the order. Dyson is a border line cash game option on DK as well.
Other tagged players: Jarrod Dyson, Daniel Descalso, David Peralta, Steven Souza Late Night Lefty Mashing
For the record, I have no concerns about Nelson Cruz, and he is absolutely in play tonight, but Mitch Haniger may be the new best hitter on this Seattle team. So far this season, Cruz has a solid 39% hard hit rate, but Haniger is at 42%. Cruz has 7 HR and 18 RBI. Haniger has 10 HR and 30 RBI. As for the opposition, Mike Minor has not held his stats from 2017 as he’s moved into the rotation. He has just a 17% K rate to right-handed batters while allowing a high 45% fly ball rate and 41% hard hits. Play Cruz and Haniger, but it’s OK to go with Haniger first.
Just Too Cheap For These Skills
The salary on Shin-Soo Choo is just too low on DK/FDRFT. He is facing a low strikeout pitcher in Mike Leake, and continues to hit the ball hard with a 46% HH rate leading to a 121 wRC+ against righties. He will be in near the top of the lineup against a bad pitcher, and is just simply too cheap.
One Bad Night Does Not Tell The Story
Playing yesterday’s bums is always a viable DFS strategy. The Indians are a clear case of this tonight, as is Arizona OF David Peralta. He is leading off against one of the worst pitchers in the league against left-handed pitching. After a bad 2017 vs LHB Jhuolys Chacin has hit a new low with a ridiculous six strikeouts and 13 walks with 39% hard hits allowed to lefties this season. Peralta has been tearing up righties this season with a 48% hard hit rate, .274 ISO, .411 wOBA and .389 OBP.
Wood Struggles at $10k+ price tag in past
This is the 12th time Alex wood has been priced up over $10k in his fantasy career. In the past he has struggled, hitting at a 36% consistency rate and an avg expected/actual points of -4.35. Getting 15 points per start is not what you are looking for when paying up for a $10k pitcher. To pile on, the Marlins have hit opposing pitchers priced up versus them. This year, opponents priced up over $10k have hit value 0 TIMES! Avg points/actul at a whopping -12.49. This includes the likes of Clayton Kershaw, deGrom, and Chris Sale. Wood will not be an option in cash games tonight, and a contrarian angle to take in GPPs with the other studs on the Tuesday slate.
Everything Lines Up Here
It took a while for Carlos Santana, but the production is finally starting to catch up to the skills. He has elite plate discipline with just 24 strikeouts to go with 23 walks, and his hard hits have started paying off with five home runs and five doubles in the past nine games. Andrew Cashner has shown some signs of improvement against lefties, but with sketchy control and high fly balls, there is on base and power upside for Santana tonight.
The Skills and The Matchup Align
Of course, pay up for Gerrit Cole if you can afford him. There is no arguing wihth what he’s done this season, and even in a tougher matchup, he has the highest raw points projection and ceiling. But this is a very meaningful savings down to Syndergaard against a high strikeout Blue Jays team losing their DH in an NL park. Syndergaard’s results have been a little inconsistent, but there is no flaw in his skill set with 27.6% K, 5.1% BB, and just 25% hard contact. He has been on the unlucky side, and he has the kind of stuff for dominant outings when the batted balls go his way.