DFS Alerts
I'll Have the Floor With the Strikeout Upside on the Side
When looking for a cheap arm with upside and a high floor, Eduardo Rodriguez is my guy. In four starts this season, he has a 14.3% swinging strike rate with a 24.5% strikeout rate. That backs up a 11.6% swinging strike rate and a 25.8% strikeout rate in 2017. He’s pitched at least six innings in three straight starts, and outside of throwing a lot of pitches against Tampa in his first start, he’s pitched really well. The projected starting lineup for the Royals has a .084 ISO with a .238 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Outside of Merrifield and Perez, I’m not too concerned with this lineup and that adds to the floor of Rodriguez. He’s just a little too cheap tonight, and I fully plan on taking advantage of it.
Gerrit Cole outclasses the field with a 31.8% K-BB% and 2.33 SIERA
The worst-kept secret in all of the daily fantasy baseball industry is how consistently great Gerrit Cole has been to begin the 2018 campaign, as he has pitched exactly seven innings in all five of his starts while recording less than eight strikeouts on just one occasion, including three double-digit performances. With each passing outing, Cole’s newly-found strikeout prowess appears to more sustainable than first thought, especially since he continues to exhibit a quantifiable change in his approach on the mound by throwing more curveballs and sliders than in years past. By throwing more off-speed pitches and fewer fastballs, Cole has managed to increase his swinging strike percentage to a whopping 14.8%, in turn elevating his strikeout rate to 38.0%, both are numbers that would obliterate his career 9.7% swinging strike rate and 23.3% strikeout rate. Naturally, there’s some skepticism that Cole will be able to sustain these Cy Young caliber statistics over the course of a full season, but more than likely, the answer probably lies somewhere in the middle, as Cole has clearly changed his preferred pitch selection and appears on track for better overall strikeout success over the long term. Taking all of this into account, there remains no reason that Cole doesn’t have an above-average chance to dominate this Oakland Athletics squad on Sunday afternoon, just as Lance McCullers did on Saturday, despite the Athletics currently ranking second in wOBA in the Majors this season. However, their confirmed lineup owns a combined 22.9% strikeout rate versus right-pitching over the course of the 2017-18 seasons, just further elevating the ceiling of Cole, who arguably already possesses the highest floor and ceiling combination of any starting pitcher on today’s slate. Add in the fact that the Houston Astros are the second-largest favorite (-203 money line) on the main slate and that the Athletics have a reasonable 3.5 implied runs total, it’s easy to feel confident about deploying Cole as an SP1 in all formats.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Danny Valencia scratched Sunday; Pedro Alvarez replaces
Valencia has been scratched from the Baltimore Orioles original confirmed lineup and will not play in Sunday’s matchup against the Detroit Tigers due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Pedro Alvarez, who will play third base and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which will bump Anthony Santander up to the fifth spot vacated by Valencia but ultimately leaves the remainder of the Orioles lineup intact as they face off against left-hander Daniel Norris at home this afternoon.
As reported by: the Baltimore Orioles via Twitter Ian Kennedy has recorded a 40.9% HH% and a 45.7% FB% since 2017
Kennedy started off the 2018 campaign with a bang by surrendering just two earned runs over his first 18 innings pitched, but his good fortune has begun to dwindle over his last two outings, allowing 10 runs, eight of them earned, in just eight innings of work. Kennedy’s fly ball rate is down to 36.1% through his first five starts but still remains a bit of an outlier, as he owns a career 42.1% fly ball rate, including a rate of at least 47.3% in each of the past two full seasons. In other words, if Kennedy continues to allow hard contact at a 40.0% clip, which seems likely in his current decline, he’ll be due for some serious regression in the home run department after posting at least a 1.52 HR/9 over the last three years and a career-high 1.99 HR/9 last season. This type of pitching profile sets up perfectly for someone like Yoan Moncada (0.265 ISO, 0.543 xwOBA vs RHP in 2017/18), who hits a ton of fly balls and line drives, as evidenced by his 40.0% fly ball and 21.7% line drive rates versus right-handed pitching. Not only that, but Moncada is also mashing the baseball thus far in 2018 and has accumulated a massive 53.6% hard-hit percentage through the first month of the season, a number that appears to check out given his 45.0% hard-hit percentage against righties when expanding his sample size to include all of the previous season as well. The logical players to accompany Moncada in tournament stacks are Jose Abreu (40.5% HH%, 0.240 ISO, 0.408 xwOBA vs RHP in 2017/18) and Matt Davidson (42.5% HH%, 0.258 ISO, 0.494 xwOBA vs RHP in 2017/18), as both profile very similarly to Moncada from the right side of the plate but are just marginally a tier below for all daily fantasy formats since they’re sacrificing the platoon advantage in Sunday afternoon’s matchup.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Matt Davidson, Ian Kennedy Don't Let the Wind Sway You
I would be remiss if I didn’t recommend a hitter against the terrible Josh Tomlin. About the only thing Tomlin and his 25.9% ground ball rate have going for him in this matchup are the 14 mph winds blowing in at Progressive Field. It’s no surprise that Tomlin let’s up a ton of HRs given his low ground ball rate and his problems with limiting hard contact. While the wind may help him limit some of those long balls on Sunday, this still sets up as a positive hitting environment for the Seattle offense. I really like Cano’s price tag on DraftKings but think he’s playable in all formats on FanDuel as well.
OBP + SB
This one is pretty simple – the Red Sox have the highest implied run total of the slate and Benintendi has the most obtainable price point of the Sox outfield options (plus Mookie may not play and JDM has been bad). Beni looked great in yesterday’s game against the Rays where he put up 17 DraftKings points in a three hit performance. In addition to his strong on base skill-set, this sets up as a favorable stolen base matchup for Beni as Andriese has been below average in stolen base prevention throughout his career.
Double Trouble
I wrote a blurb on Whit yesterday with the assumption that he would get to square off against the soft tossing southpaw Hector Santiago. Well, Covey got the start in Game 2 of yesterday’s double header but it looks like Santiago will get the nod on Sunday. Whit has great numbers against LHP (131 wRC+, .202 ISO) and should leadoff for the Royals. The UTIL spot on FanDuel and his multi-positional eligibility on DraftKings mean you can play him alongside Robinson Cano in cash games, who is a great play in his own right.
The Safe Play
It’s definitely a bit boring to keep saying how great Cole has been this season but here we are. Cole has done an excellent job at limiting hard contact and is generating a ton of strikeouts (38 K%). Despite his high price tag, Cole makes for the best “cash game” option on the slate – especially on a one pitcher site like FanDuel. Even on DraftKings his price tag isn’t prohibitive enough to steer away from him in cash.
All the Twins Except Mauer
The Twins have made me more money in DFS than any player or team. I’m expecting that to continue today, as I absolutely love the Twins against Tyler Mahle and the Reds bullpen. In his young career Mahle has shown the ability to get crushed by both sides of the plate and as we know, the Reds middle relief behind him is poor…at best! I think the Twins go nuts today and along with the Indians are my favorite stack.
Other tagged players: Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Jason Castro, Eduardo Escobar, Robbie Grossman
Strong Floor, High Upside
I’ll concede that the newly dominant Gerrit Cole is likely the “safest” option for Sunday’s main slate but Happ has been great in his own right to start 2018. The watered down Rangers lineup has been able to put up some runs the first couple of games of this series but have shown their propensity to strikeout. Happ and his 33.6% strikeout rate has a strong floor in this matchup to pair with a high ceiling at a moderate price tag. He’s my favorite pt/$ play at the position. If nothing else, Happ makes a great SP2 option in a double high priced SP roster approach.
Tribe vs Lefties
The Indians will have five players with an ISO over .200 vs lefties since the start of 2016. I love stacking them all up today and will have them as my top stack of the day. Everyone knows about E5 but Gomes, Alonzo, Ramirez and Lindor are equally good plays. Gonzalez is a work in progress and should they get to him early, this could be a double-digit scoring game easily getting into that weak Seattle middle relief. One other great thing about this stack is they should be somewhat overlooked today. Along with the Twins, I will be playing the Indians everywhere.
Other tagged players: Yan Gomes, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Yonder Alonso Too Cheap for the Talent
Gausman is still simply too cheap on DraftKings and FantasyDraft for a kid with his talent. I would even consider him on FanDuel as I could easily see him being a top 5 pitcher on this slate. I rostered Gausman last time out against a really tough Cleveland team and he rewarded me with 25 DK fpts. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar result today against a Tigers offense that is surging but still is not one I’m afraid of targeting pitchers against. Gausman is basically a k per inning guy and they are really giving him a long leash with that awful Orioles pen behind him. In his last start they let KG start the 8th inning with 97 pitches (ending with 107), putting him between 97 and 107 pitches in each his last 4 starts. I wish Detroit struck out more and I wish Gausman was a little more consistent, but he is trending in the right direction, and I have no problem loading up on Gasmaun in GPPs, especially on two-pitcher sites.
A Dirt Cheap Value Play
Logan Morrison remains dirt cheap on all DFS sites, with a price tag basically at the bare minimum on FanDuel and just over $3,000 on DraftKings. Though he had been slumping in the early going, a matchup against the Reds’ weak pitching staff has brought his bat to life. He’s reached base twice in each game of this series so far and belted a home run on Friday. We need value plays in order to spend on some top pitching and other top bats today, and Morrison provides some nice salary relief and some power upside, which is generally a prerequisite at first base. If you can’t trust Morrison, I also really like Steve Pearce as a value today.
Hitting Everything in Sight
Machado just continues to rake in the month of April. He’s hitting .346 against lefties. He’s hitting .363 against righties. He already has nine home runs. His OPS is over 1.100 against pitchers from both sides. His ISO against lefties is .423. His wOBA is .460+ against pitchers from both sides. I could go on and on, but the point is that the guy rakes from a position where it’s often hard to find consistent DFS production. Lock him in as a top play today against a mediocre lefty in Norris.
Thriving in 2018 and a Great Sunday Matchup Awaits
His skill set isn’t getting the attention it deserves. He hits a lot of fly balls and line drives, which matches up very well with today’s opposing pitcher in Ian Kennedy. Moncada’s hard contact rate is a whopping 53.6% so far this season. That’s on another level, my friends, and it currently ranks him third in the league behind only J.D. Martinez and teammate Matt Davidson. The rising young star has a .270 ISO on the year and is my favorite target for power this afternoon.