DFS Alerts
Risky... but Worthwhile of Consideration in All Formats
The signs remain very positive with Velasquez in 2018. Those positive signs in the early going include a 27% strikeout rate, a 6% walk rate, a very good batted ball profile, and a SIERA and xFIP in the mid-threes. His numbers are above average in almost every single category, and his swinging strike rate is also up so far this year. Velasquez is ready for a breakout year if he can stay healthy. He does carry some risk against the Braves, and Velasquez does have a tendency to implode at times. However, I lov the upside. He’s a fine SP #2 target on multi-pitcher sites, and I will even consider him in cash games today.
Clearly the Top Pitcher on the Board
It feels repetitive at this point, but it feels like Gerrit Cole has constantly been the clear-cut top pitching option for DFS whenever he has taken the mound this year. He hasn’t pitched on a slate with the likes of other top-notch aces, and here we are once again. He continues to impress with a 49/8 K/BB ratio in his first five starts as a member of the Astros, and he has yet to give up more than two runs in a start. This Oakland team is very attackable for good pitchers, and we saw Lance McCullers dominate on Saturday. Cole is clearly the top pitcher on this Sunday slate.
I believe I Can Fly (Just Like the Balls from this Pitcher)
So, Delmonico didn’t have great numbers in the minors, but once he came up to the majors this changed real quickly. Since the beginning of 2017, Delmonico owns a .176 ISO and a .353 wOBA. He gets a matchup against a extreme fly ball pitcher who owns a 45% fly ball rate and a 40%+ hard hit rate since the beginning of 2017. Kennedy gives up HRs like I give up free drinks to the girl who shows me the slightest bit of interest on Friday night. There are other great plays in this lineup, but I expect Delmonico to continue to hit the ball well in the majors with completely different balls than he was hitting in the minors.
The Guy Thowing to Him Couldn't Strike Me Out
The guy throwing to Pearce makes Matt Moore look like a competent pitcher. Martin Perez has a piss poor 12.1% K%, .373 wOBA, and a 36% hard hit rate vs. righties since the beginning of 2017. The Blue Jays have a 5.45 implied run total at the time of this writing and Pearce owns a .401 xwOBA and a .238 ISO vs. LHP and is likely batting at the top of the lineup. If you’re still thinking about fading him in cash please send me over a H2H on any site, and if you’re contemplating fading him in GPPs, ownership should be your only excuse. Fade at your own risk,
Lefty Crusher You Know and Love
Fun fact: Daniel Norris is not a good pitcher. Another fun fact: Valencia hits lefties real well. Since the beginning of 2017 Valencia owns a .207 ISO and a .340 wOBA vs. LHP and Norris owns a near 10% BB% and a 4.88 xFIP and he’s pitching in a hitter’s ballpark. BAL has a 5 implied team total at the time of this writing and I think it may be too low. You can expect Valencia to get a lot of at bats in this matchup and the power upside is huge. If you don’t want to roll with him in cash, I completely understand, but in GPPs if you aren’t considering him, you probably also think that Baker Mayfield is going to be the best overall pick of all time.
Old Unreliable Back in Our Lives
There are two things I know about Vince Velasquez. He can be the best pitcher on any given slate and he can be the worst. Since the beginning of 2017 he owns a 22.7% K% and a 9.6% BB %. He has been known to give up a lot of HRs and give up a lot of free passes, but the guy has been lights out at certain points in his career. So far this year, he has had two 24+ DK point starts and a sub-0 start under his belt. This is not a plus matchup going up against a Braves lineup who is very underrated, but he has the stuff to be the top scoring pitcher on the entire slate. Take the chance if you need a little savings and hope he has a good outing.
This Guy Has Dirty Stuff
In case the rumor hasn’t spread around the frat house, this guy has dirty stuff. If you just look at it, you know it’s filthy. That being said, Cahill does have a tough matchup against the Astros. The Astros do have a combined.348 wOBA and .190 ISO vs RHP, but they do have decent K numbers and are going against Cahill, who owns a 56.6% GB and a 23.7% K% since the beginning of 2017. If you’re worried then you’re not alone (we can talk in my support group with me), but the risk for the price is absolutely worth it. Take the risk on a low owned pitcher at a low price with huge upside and move on.
Francisco Liriano sports a massive 44.4% HH% versus RHB this season
Liriano has been surprisingly solid from a pure results-based perspective to begin the 2018 campaign, as he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in all but one of his first four outings, including a five-inning, seven-strikeout performance against the same Baltimore Orioles squad he faces Saturday evening. However, most of this “success” can be traced to a minuscule .193 BABIP and 82.6% LOB% that both vary greatly from Liriano’s career .300 BABIP and 71.4% LOB%, further indicating that he will not be able to sustain these type of performances moving forward. On top of that, other red flags for Liriano include an elevated 38.3% hard-hit percentage and a lofty 13.0% walk rate that isn’t too far off of the 12.1% rate he posted over the course of the 2017 season, both of which have led to a 4.82 SIERA and 4.69 xFIP that are drastically higher than his 3.13 ERA to this point. These discrepancies could regress to the mean in a hurry against this right-handed heavy Orioles lineup that sports just one left-handed hitter in Jace Peterson at the two-spot in tonight’s official batting order. That said, Manny Machado (0.286 ISO, 0.433 xwOBA, 45.5% HH% vs LHP in 2017/18) and Danny Valencia (0.207 ISO, 0.390 xwOBA, 37.2% HH% vs LHP in 2017/18), who presents significant value at his price point across the industry, are still the only two standout Orioles hitters that profile well for any and all daily fantasy formats in this matchup, while Trey Mancini (0.399 xwOBA vs LHP in 2017/18) and Caleb Joseph (0.198 ISO, 0.440 xwOBA, 36.8% HH% vs LHP in 2017/18) are intriguing options to round out tournament stacks since they don’t necessarily the possess the consistent individual upside to be considered as one-offs but could be integral parts of the Baltimore offensive output this evening.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Danny Valencia, Trey Mancini, Caleb Joseph, Francisco Liriano
Start of Saturday's DET-BAL game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles on Saturday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Orioles have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. Since starting pitchers from this game weren’t realistic options for any daily fantasy formats, the late start won’t do much to add to their appeal but the delay is obviously a potentially positive sign for the contest playing through without a mid-game delay. However, as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the delay could be lengthy and there’s still a possibility that the game is postponed if the teams opt to not play in the light precipitation.
As reported by: Eduardo A. Encina via Twitter Andrelton Simmons scratched Saturday; Jefry Marte replaces
Simmons has been scratched from the Los Angeles Angels original confirmed lineup and will not start in Saturday’s matchup with the New York Yankees due to right forearm soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Jefry Marte, who will play first base and slot into the eighth spot in the order, shifting around the infield alignment quite a bit, as Zack Cozart will move over to shortstop and Luis Valbuena to third base, respectively, while each join Kole Calhoun in sliding up one hitting position. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Angels order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Masahiro Tanaka this evening.
As reported by: the Los Angeles Angels via Twitter Justin Bour (back spasms) scratched Saturday
Bour has been scratched from the Miami Marlins original confirmed lineup and will not play in Saturday’s matchup against the Colorado Rockies due to back spasms. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Brian Anderson, who will play right field and slot directly into Bour’s cleanup spot in the order, which moves Derek Dietrich over to first base but ultimately leaves the remainder of the Marlins lineup intact as they face off against right-hander German Marquez at home this evening.
As reported by: Craig Davis via Twitter Lance McCullers has a 3.01 SIERA and 2.79 xFIP, despite 4.67 ERA in 2018
Following a bit of a hiccup against the Minnesota Twins three starts ago, Lance McCullers has really settled in from a run prevention standpoint, allowing just one earned run in both outings since spanning a total of 13 innings pitched. It may be tough to look past the 4.67 ERA and 1.44 WHIP through five starts, but they’re just surface numbers stemming from a .381 BABIP, 21.4% HR/FB rate, and the aforementioned blowup appearance, all indicators that McCullers has just been unlucky to begin this young 2018 campaign. So with that said, it’s difficult to imagine McCullers not regressing to the mean sooner rather than later considering he is still sporting a 31.6% strikeout rate, 13.9% swinging strike rate, 63.6% groundball rate, 3.01 SIERA, and 2.79 xFIP on the year, each statistic checking-in above average and better than his overall career numbers. The primary contributors to his poor luck thus far have been a higher-than-normal 10.3% walk rate and a 33.3% hard-hit percentage, but if McCullers is able to reign those fixable issues in, there’s no reason that he doesn’t have a chance to dominate this Oakland Athletics squad on Saturday night, despite them currently ranking second in wOBA in the Majors this season. However, the Athletics confirmed lineup owns a combined 24.4% strikeout rate versus right-pitching over the course of the 2017-18 seasons, just further elevating the ceiling of McCullers, who arguably already possesses the highest floor and ceiling combination of any starting pitcher on tonight’s slate. Add in the fact that the Houston Astros remain the largest favorite (-210 money line) on the main slate and the Athletics have a reasonable 3.7 implied runs total, it’s easy to feel confident about deploying McCullers as an SP1 in all formats across the industry, but especially on FanDuel, where he is ridiculously underpriced.
As reported by: FanGraphs About as cheap as I'm willing to go
So, with Chen starting instead of Smith, there isn’t a whole lot of value available below 7k on DK. I do prefer Lucchesi and Richards over Marquez, but if you need some extra savings for the bats Marquez is your best option. Marquez has been a fairly volatile pitcher throughout his career, but he draws a plus matchup against the Marlins tonight who only have one batter in the lineup with higher than a .330 wOBA vs. RHP since the beginning of 2017. Marquez had 5 9+ K outings in the second half of last year, so considering the price and matchup you’re not going to find a higher upside play under 7K.
Wei-Yin Chen will start for the Miami Marlins on Saturday
The Miami Marlins officially recalled left-handed pitcher Wei-Yin Chen from his minor league rehabilitation assignment and have confirmed that he will start Saturday’s game against the Colorado Rockies, taking the place of the Caleb Smith in the rotation. Smith was originally listed as the probable starting pitcher for tonight’s matchup, and this pitching change does alter the projections of the Rockies hitters to some extent, even though Chen is a southpaw just like Smith, their overall skillsets and pitching profiles are slightly different. Additionally, to make room on the active roster, Miami also announced that catcher Tomas Telis has been designated for assignment.
As reported by: Joe Frisaro via Twitter Mid-Range Tag + Career #'s
PNC is undoubtedly a pitcher’s park but people often overlook the fact that it plays right around league average for left handed power. There are some concerns surrounding Carpenter’s shoulder and how much power he can actually generate but his mid-range price tag and career numbers against right handed pitching (138 wRC+, .191 ISO) make him an attractive cash game option. FanDuel’s flex spot + Carpenter’s multi-positional eligibility on DraftKings enable you to play Carpenter alongside Whit Merrifield.
