DFS Alerts
Sean Newcomb's 28.4 K% is second best on the afternoon slate
Homer Bailey has only allowed more than three runs in one of his five starts, but he’s not missing bats (16 K%) with a .227 BABIP. His .402 xwOBA and 47.8% 95+ mph EV is are both highest among all pitchers on Thursday. Batters from either side exceed a .340 wOBA and .360 xwOBA against him since last year and the Braves have the second highest implied run line on the early slate (4.8). Only Ozzie Albies (98 wRC+, .174 ISO vs RHP career) and Freddie Freeman (157 wRC+, .431 xwOBA, .276 ISO, 39.7 Hard% vs RHP since last season) are above $4K on either site. It’s difficult to find guys to avoid in this lineup. Even Dansby Swanson (72 wRC+, .096 ISO) and Ryan Flaherty (115 wRC+, .100 ISO) are hitting this year. Kurt Suzuki (122 wRC+, .226 ISO) is suddenly Mike Piazza (252 wRC+, 72.2 Hard% last seven days). This may even be a combination the Braves can run on. Premium subscribers can find players with great steal potential with the new Stolen Base Threat Ratings. Sean Newcomb has tremendous potential (28.4 K% is second on the slate) and has been managing contact well (3.5% Barrels/BBE, .289 xwOBA), but a lack of consistent control has knocked him out of the game in less than six innings twice with four walks each time. He’s not the top guy on the board, but is a high upside pivot from more expensive arms, though the Reds do have an early 117 wRC+ and 11 BB% against southpaws. His cost is starting to rise, as he’s now $8.7K on DraftKings, $1.6K more than his FanDuel cost. He doesn’t have much of a platoon split, though xwOBA gives the advantage to LHBs by 46 points for his career. He’s held batters from both sides below a 30% hard hit rate with a league average ground ball rate. Cincinnati is one of the most power friendly parks in the league, so perhaps Joey Votto (140 wRC+, .227 ISO vs LHP since 2017), Adam Duvall (135 wRC+, .296 ISO), and the returning Eugenio Suarez (146 wRC+, .241 ISO) can’t be entirely ruled out where the price is reasonable (Suarez is min-priced on FD).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Stolen Base Threat Ratings Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Adam Duvall, Homer Bailey, Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Dansby Swanson, Ryan Flaherty, Kurt Suzuki
This Boy Is On Fire
The Red Sox are the highest projected scoring team tonight and if there’s one batter to spend on, it would be Mookie Betts who has hit a whole new level of brilliance this season. As usual, he is making elite contact again this season and he has boosted his hard hits all the way up to 50%, which has led to a .400 ISO with eight home runs in his first 21 games. He has plenty of speed to go along with power, and he can help in every way from average and on base ability to run scoring to stolen bases and home runs.
A High Upside Offense in a Decent Matchup
On short slates like we have tonight, simply targeting the highest upside offense always has some merit. Chase Anderson is basically a league average pitcher, and he’s logged some good fortune so far in 2017 with a .197 opposing BABIP. That won’t last all season. Anderson has a ground ball rate below 40% for his career, so he can be touched up for the long ball at times. His SIERA and xFIP are both over a run higher than his ERA, so this could be a breakout spot for the Cubs’ power hitters.
Other tagged players: Kyle Schwarber
More Savings Here
We’re going to need a couple cheap bats to pay for the high end pitching tonight, and Jon Jay leading off in Kansas City against the worst pitcher on the slate is an easy fit at this salary. He’s not a huge upside guy, but with solid plate skills and on base ability, he is very likely to reach base multiple times tonight against the wild stuff of Gioltio and should be in the thick of the action for a team that should score some runs.
Searching for Long Balls
Marco Estrada is not a pitcher that is often wise to full stack against, but I certainly think you can pick and choose some bats against him. He’s a high fly ball pitcher who will always be prone to the home run. Mookie Betts is clearly the top target from this Boston team, and then maybe you can search for a cheap home run after that. Rafael Devers continues to draw my attention given his affordable price tag and nice lineup spot, while Nunez can be considered as a value piece.
Other tagged players: Rafael Devers, Eduardo Nunez Can't Pass On This Salary
On FanDuel, Lucas Duda is simply too cheap to ignore for a guy with his power potential facing an awful pitcher backed by an awful bullpen. For his career, Lucas Giolito has just a 15% strikeout rate to left-handed batters, offestting the one weakness for Duda. He hits the ball hard and in the air, and has immense upside for close to minimum salary.
Attacking the Worst Pitcher of the Night
It can be very frustrating to stack the Royals, but they have to be considered as offensive options on a four game slate against a poor pitcher in Lucas Giolito. In four starts this year, Giolito has 19 walks and nine strikeouts. His SIERA is 7.71. His xFIP is 8.44. Yikes. He’s simply not ready for the big leagues, and even the Royals should be able to put up some runs against him. The primary pieces of this offense don’t cost a lot because the team has been struggling, but this could be a great spot to buy low and also be able to fit an ace like Sale into your lineups on the mound.
Other tagged players: Lucas Duda, Salvador Perez Going Right Back Here Tonight
The Royals are one of the few offenses in a good spot tonight, and Moustakas is far and away the best hitter on this team. He already has seven home runs this season on the back of a 48% hard hit rate while striking out just 13.5% of the time. The White Sox Lucas Giolito has been horrendous this season and there’s a highly attackable bullpen behind him.
Massive Risk/Reward Potential
If you are searching for GPP upside on the mound without paying top dollar, give Archer a look. He has been very much hit or miss to start the season, but there are positive signs. His swinging strike rate in the early going sits at what would be a career-best 14%. He has been victimized by a BABIP that is 40 points above his career average and a HR/FB rate that is 6.4% above his career average. Normalization will come soon, and it could come against a Baltimore offense has been striking out at the second highest clip in the league so far in 2018.
The Clear-Cut Top Pitching Choice
Clayton Kershaw let everybody down last night as the top pitcher on the slate, but I wouldn’t expect lightning to strike twice with Sale today. With just four games on the evening docket, it’s really difficult to rationalize fading the Boston ace. He logged his first double digit strikeout performance of the year in his last start and looks to be rounding into form. He was also allowed to throw a season high 110 pitches in that game. His upside dwarfs anyone else on this slate, and he will be a key cog of virtually all my lineup builds.
It Makes Sense At This Price
I have been playing catchers a lot on FanDuel this season, as they’re usually less than 15% owned. And with the limited value options on FanDuel tonight, I’m looking to save some money with Salvador Perez. He had a .393 xwOBA with a .219 ISO against right-handed pitching last season. He doesn’t tend to strike out a lot, and he had an 80.6% contact rate with a 36.7% hard contact rate. In 34 innings against righties since being called up last season, Giolito has a 5.92 xFIP with a 14.9% strikeout rate. He has a .208 BABIP, and the xFIP suggests he has some massive regression coming.
Searching For Power Upside
We don’t have a ton of value options tonight, and that makes sense on a four-game slate with good pitching. I haven’t been playing the Royals a lot this season, and they could burn me tonight, but they’re one team that presents some value. Lucas Duda is fitting in well with his new team, as he comes in with a .408 wOBA and a .580 xwOBA in 38 ABs against righties. Since the start of 2017, he has a .287 ISO with a .459 xwOBA against righties. Giolito is a talented young pitcher, but it’s not been able to translate into the Majors yet. He has a .202 ISO with a 16.2% strikeout rate against lefties since 2017.
Hitting A New Level
The 2nd half of 2017 was a breakout party for Dylan Bundy with a 26.9% strikeout rate after the All-Star Break. So far this season, he’s making it look like there’s yet another level in him, posting a 31% strikeout rate with just 7% walks in his first 5 starts. He has struck out a remarkable 24 of the 58 right-handed batters he’s faced this season. His only potential weakness is left-handed power, and his opponent today just doesn’t have any left-handed power to be afraid of. He’s in play for me on all sites in all formats.
Don't Mess Around
This one is pretty simple. We have a four game slate, and arguably the best pitcher in the league is on the mound. He led the league in strikeouts in 2017 and has been every bit as good to open this season, with a 36.3% strikeout rate and just 5.3% walks. He strikes out both right and left-handed batters at elite levels, and this is a spot to use my favorite phrase – Don’t Overthink It.
Quality SP2 Tonight
I’ve been playing Jakob Junis a lot lately, and he continues to be a viable SP2 option on DraftKings and FantasyDraft. He has a 0.75 WHIP with a 4.9% walk rate in 26.2 innings this season. Since being called up last season, he has a 1.09 WHIP with a 20.8% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters. His hard contact and xFIP are concerning, but I’m not too worried about that in this matchup. The White Sox will be without Garcia and it’s possible Abreu sits after leaving the game early yesterday. The projected starting lineup has a 26.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, and they have five guys with below average groundball rates.