DFS Alerts
Chris Sale has struck out at least eight batters in four of five starts and has the lowest xwOBA on the board (.225)
Chris Sale (36.3 K%, 15.6 SwStr%) is obvious top arm on a four game slate (though Dylan Bundy may be closer than some think) and faces a mostly unimposing Toronto lineup tonight. He’s struck out at least eight in four of his five starts, but just completed seven innings for the first time last time out. He’s averaged nearly seven innings per start over the last two calendar years (6.8), far more than any pitcher on the slate and that combination (innings and strikeouts) is why players are paying an exorbitant price for him ($13K on DK) on a four game slate. His .225 xwOBA this season is 66 points below the next lowest pitcher (Bundy .291). Player considering something crazy, which can sometimes make sense on a small slate, have to consider that the three most useful right-handed bats (Justin Smoak, Steve Pearce and Kevin Pillar all above a 115 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs LHP since last season) are not even that steeply discounted, all costing at least $3K on either site. Sale has held RHBs to a .263 wOBA (.250 xwOBA) since last season.
Other tagged players: Justin Smoak, Steve Pearce, Kevin Pillar
Chase Anderson is missing fewer bats and has allowed six HRs over his last four starts
Chase Anderson had somewhat of a breakout last season, but has struggled to continue missing bats this season (18.9 K%, 7.7 SwStr%) and has now allowed six HRs over four starts since his first start of the season in San Diego. Though his ERA (3.25) remains low due to a .197 BABIP and 93.5 LOB%, fewer missed bats and more HRs is a troubling development, though his 26% 95+ mph EV suggests he’s otherwise managing contact fine outside of those long balls. The Chicago lineup is lacking a few key bats, namely Kris Bryant again, but Javier Baez (109 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP since 2017) is suddenly a beast and now bats near the top of the order. Anderson has a reverse platoon split, holding LHBs below a .270 wOBA and xwOBA since last season with four of his six HRs this year surrendered to same-handed batters. Other right-handed bats (there are ony two) in the Cubs lineup lack much punch and the high cost of Anthony Rizzo (131 wRC+, .217 ISO) and Kyle Schwarber (124 wRC+, .291 ISO) may impair their value in this spot.
Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Chase Anderson Chris Archer still misses bats at an elite rate (14 SwStr%), but has allowed a HR in each start
Chris Archer continues to miss bats at an elite rate (24.2 K%, 14 SwStr%) and in that sense, he has a high upside matchup against a confirmed Baltimore lineup with a 28.1 K% vs RHP this year according to PlateIQ, but hard contact issues continue to plague him (90 mph aEV and a HR allowed in each start this season). A 45.8 Z-O-Swing% (the worst of his career) is part of the problem. Strikes are being swung at, balls not so much. While Archer does have a normal platoon split (LHBs .347 wOBA, 42.6 Hard% – RHBs .282 wOBA, 36.3 Hard% since last year), Manny Machado (110 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP since 2017) still seems the bat to fear. He has a 342 wRC+ and 45 Hard% with a league leading five HRs over the last seven days. Trey Mancini (121 wRC+, .208 ISO) and Chris Davis (95 wRC+, .221 ISO) are the other dangerous bats in this lineup. Davis could supply both power and some strikeouts for Archer. Archer is a high upside arm in this matchup at less than $9K, but there’s also some potential upside in one off Baltimore bats against him.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Trey Mancini, Chris Davis Yoan Moncada (137 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP) only real threat in White Sox lineup with Abreu out
Though Jakob Junis has estimators that double his 2.11 ERA, due to a .169 BABIP and 90.4 LOB%, they still paint the picture of an average arm. Junis has joined the Slider Revolution, throwing it a third of the time and can occasionally get in trouble with it (10.8% Barrels/BBE). The White Sox have shown more competence than expected against RHP (101 wRC+), but with a high strikeout rate (24.6%) and are resting one of their biggest bats tonight (Jose Abreu). Yoan Moncada (137 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP career) has shown an ability to punish mistakes and now carries the highest price tag in the lineup, while league average bats in Yolmer Sanchez (105 wRC+, .158 ISO vs RHP since 2017), Nick Delmonico (124 wRC+, .176 ISO, but .317 xwOBA) and Welington Castillo (105 wRC+, .199 ISO) could provide salary relief at the top of the lineup.
Other tagged players: Jakob Junis, Nicky Delmonico, Yolmer Sanchez, Welington Castillo Marco Estrada has allowed six HRs in four starts and his reverse split could mean trouble against Boston
Marco Estrada has an 11.6 SwStr% that would be a career high (20 IP min.), but has only a 19.2 K% and has allowed six HRs in four starts. He’s pitched in some difficult spots this season, in Texas and Baltimore, while facing the Yankees twice, but it doesn’t get any easier against Boston tonight (132 wRC+, 17.1 K%, 23 Hard-Soft% vs RHP this year). His 13.2% Barrels/BBE is the ninth highest in baseball with a 50 BBE minimum. Boston is essentially in a three way tie for the top implied run line tonight (4.76), while Estrada’s reverse split (RHBs .372 wOBA, 337 xwOBA, 27.5 GB%) could hurt him here. Mookie Betts (116 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP since 2017) is on fire (167 wRC+, 62.5 Hard%, three HRs last seven days) and J.D. Martinez (146 wRC+, .340 ISO) hits everybody, while the rest of the Boston lineup is more competent than proficient in support of the two stars. These are two bats in a good spot that players should strongly consider paying up for tonight.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Marco Estrada Dylan Bundy leads the AL in fWAR (1.4) and SwStr rate (17.4%)
It’s pretty clear praise to call someone the second best pitcher on a slate with Chris’s Sale and Archer, but that’s what Dylan Bundy appears to be right now with a 17.4 SwStr% (31 K%) that’s third best in baseball. The 3.0 HR/FB is unsustainable, but his .321 BABIP is more a product of his defense (.324 BABIP allowed) with a 38.5 GB%, 21.2 IFFB%, 75.7 Z-Contact% and 28.6 Z-0-Swing%. He’s tied for the AL lead in fWAR (1.4) and costs more than $3K less than Sale on DraftKings tonight against an offense that has cut down on strikeouts (22.1%) and has been on fire recently (173 wRC+, 20 HR/FB, 35.2 Hard-Soft% last seven days), but does not contain a single name a good pitcher should fear. Bundy has gone at least six innings in four of five starts and could compete with Sale as the top arm on the slate. Bundy is throwing his slider more than a quarter of the time this season and among confirmed bats in the Tampa Bay lineup, only Joey Wendle (131 wRC+, .197 ISO vs RHP since 2017) is above a .310 wOBA or .400 Contact xwOBA against the pitch since 2016 according to PlateIQ. New conditional formatting makes PlateIQ easier to navigate and is free to all RotoGrinders member through Friday, April 27th, after which it will be a premium subscriber tool exclusively.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Joey Wendle Third Baseman Royalty
We are still hours away from lock and I already know that I’m going to have too much exposure to the Royals. They draw the best matchup on the board, as they square off against the struggling Lucas Giolito. Since the beginning of last season, he has allowed a .344 xwOBA to left-handed hitters. During that same time period, Mike Moustakas has a .376 xwOBA and a .277 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Ride the Hot Streak
Yoan Moncada is off to a blazing start this season. When it comes to DFS, we are looking for hitters with power and/or speed. Moncada offers both, as he has five home runs, six doubles, and four stolen bases on the season. Even though Jake Junis is one of the best pitching options on the board, he has allowed a .336 xwOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons.
Value in the Outfield
There are only four games on the schedule tonight, so options at each position are limited. The Royals are one of the only offenses that draw a favorable matchup. They are squaring off against Lucas Giolito, who has a walk rate that is twice as high as his strikeout rate this season. Jon Jay should bat leadoff here and he’s cheap across the industry. He also boasts a respectable .323 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.
Favorable Matchup in a Good Ballpark
Jake Junis is on my radar as an SP2 for both cash games and tournaments. Even though he doesn’t have an elite strikeout rate, it’s close to the league average and he’s pitching at home in an exploitable matchup against the White Sox. The projected lineup for Chicago has a .312 xwOBA and a 27% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and there’s a decent chance that Jose Abreu gets the night off. He left yesterday’s game early with flu-like symptoms. Junis is a sizable favorite, he’s cheap, and he doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses.
SP1 for Cash Games and Tournaments
Last night was a good example of the chalk failing in baseball. Clayton Kershaw clearly didn’t have his best stuff and took the loss at home against the Marlins, but that doesn’t mean we should start fading all the top arms. I still think Kershaw was the right play, given the fact that there weren’t any viable pivots. I see Sale the same way tonight. He’s clearly the top pitcher on the board, so why make an argument against him. He’s been dominant again this season, posting a 2.26 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 36%. He also has a great track record against the current Blue Jays’ roster.
Noah Syndergaard has not exceeded six innings and only double digit strikeouts twice, but an 11+ SwStr% in every start
Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Martinez match up in a rematch from opening day and the top pitching matchup on the early slate. These are the top two pitchers on the board and the only ones above even $9K this afternoon. In the initial matchup, Martinez walked the park, while Syndergaard did allow two HRs on pitches that had no business even being put in play, but also struck out 10. His strikeout totals since have been seven, five, 11 and six, while he hasn’t gone more than six innings in a start this season, but has thrown at least 100 pitches in each of his last two. He’s exceeded an 11 SwStr% in every start this season (15.7% total leads all pitchers on Wednesday, day or night). A .328 BABIP with some suspect defense has caused some issues. He’s allowed just one HR since that first start against the Cardinals. His .261 xwOBA and 28.4% 95+ mph EV are both lowest on the day slate. He has the most upside on the board and if players are considering using batters against him, it’s probably for stolen base potential as batters from either side have a .263-4 xwOBA against him since last season. Tommy Pham (148 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Dexter Fowler (126 wRC+, .235 ISO) are probably the biggest SB threats, but the former costs more than $4K on either site, while the latter drops down to fifth in the order today. Martinez has allowed a single run and gone six innings in each of his four starts since his opening day disaster. However, his 27.8 K% comes with just a league average 9.5%. He continues to have issues with the base on balls though, walking seven more in his last two starts and has an 11% career walk rate vs LHBs. While Martinez is a great option this afternoon, left-handed hitters can be used against him and Brandon Nimmo (150 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP since 2017), one of the most patient batters you’ll see, bats leadoff for $3K or less on either site. That’s probably the extent of interest players should have in Mets bats, though Jay Bruce (126 wRC+, .264 ISO) doesn’t cost much more against a pitcher who has allowed LHBs a .324 wOBA (35.3 Hard%) since last season.
Other tagged players: Tommy Pham, Dexter Fowler, Carlos Marmol, Brandon Nimmo, Jay Bruce Seven Yankee batters have at least a 119 wRC+ and .215 ISO vs RHP since last season
Jordan Montgomery is a talented lefty (12.1 SwStr% career), who often has difficulty finishing things off (21.8 K%, 5.3 IP per start career). While he has completed six innings in consecutive starts, he’s failed to strike out more than five in a start this season. He faces an unimposing Minnesota offense beyond Brian Dozier (171 wRC+, .289 ISO vs LHP since 2017) and Miguel Sano (142 wRC+, .293 ISO), which PlateIQ tells us had a .309 wOBA and .144 ISO vs LHP since last season even with those two lefty mashers. This, in addition to a 24 K%. Montgomery has been league average against right-handed batters (.302 wOBA, .312 xwOBA career) and can be plugged into lineups at exactly $7.8K on either site against a team with a 3.96 implied run line. The Yankees are the afternoon stack. They’re 5.54 implied run line tops the slate by more than a half run and Kyle Gibson is back to his old frustrating self. Sometimes he’s good, sometimes he walks the park, sometimes he gives up runs, sometimes he doesn’t. He actually has a career high 21.3 K% to go along with his 11.5 SwStr% this year, but he’s likely to be over-whelmed by this powerful lineup with five batters (Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez, Tyler Austin and Miguel Andujar) all above a 150 wRC+ and 39 Hard% over the last week. While Gibson has no split via actual wOBA, his xwOBA actually puts RHBs at .380 against him since last season (LHBs .318) despite the ground ball rate more than seven points higher (54.1% vs RHBs, 46.6% vs LHBs). Every single batter in the Yankee lineup with more than 30 PAs against RHP since last season (omitting just Gleyber Torres) has at least a 119 wRC+ and Brett Gardner (.177 ISO) is the only one below a .215 ISO.
Other tagged players: Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez, Tyler Austin, Miguel Andujar, Brett Gardner, Gleyber Torres, Kyle Gibson, Jordan Montgomery, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano Ben Lively has a 21.7 K% and costs just $4.9K on DraftKings against team with 25.6 K% vs RHP
Ben Lively has been missing bats around a league average rate this season (21.7 K%, 8.5 SwStr%), though the only part of his strong contact management game from last year that remains is a 4.5% Barrels/BBE. His 34.3 LD% is probably not sustainable, but has led to a .385 BABIP and .363 xwOBA so far, while he completed six innings for the first time last time out. A low price tag ($4.9K) against an offense with an 86 wRC+ and 25.6 K% vs RHP and a middling 4.03 implied run line makes him slightly interesting in a secondary role on DraftKings with a useful strikeout rate now. The pitch he’s throwing more is a changeup. The one he’s throwing less is a sinker that wasn’t getting ground balls anyway. Lively has a large platoon split. RHBs have been around league average against him, LHBs have a .383 wOBA (.381 xwOBA) against this fly ball pitcher. Alex Avila (129 wRC+, .418 xwOBA, .205 ISO, 54.6 Hard% vs RHP) has been the best left-handed hitter in the lineup and is cheap at a difficult position, but does not have an enviable lineup spot. The most competent right-handed portion of this lineup comes at a high cost. Jarrod Dyson (93 wRC+) costs less than $3K in the two hole, where players are only really hoping he accidentally reaches base and steals. The Phillies have the third highest run line on the slate (4.43) against Matt Koch, who acquitted himself well in his first major league start (6 IP – 2 H – 1 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 4 K vs the Padres) since he received two in 2016. The 27 year-old has run strikeout rates around 15% in the high minors the last few years without more than 75 innings at a top since 2015. The last scouting report he was a part of on Fangraphs (late 2016) called him a middle reliever with sixth starter upside. The first five batters in the Philadelphia order all have been above average against RHP since last season via wRC+. Rhys Hoskins (167 wRC+, .314 ISO) is the stud, Aaron Altherr (112 wRC+, .227) is cheap and on fire (179 wRC+, .57.1 Hard% last seven days) and Carlos Santana (116 wRC+, .207 ISO) costs less than $4K on either site as well.
Other tagged players: Alex Avila, Jarrod Dyson, Matt Koch, Rhys Hoskins, Aaron Altherr, Carlos Santana Ivan Nova and Michael Fulmer square off in an unexciting matchup in Pittsburgh
Although the Tigers have just one competent hitter against RHP since last season (Nick Castellanos 104 wRC+, .187 ISO) and few LHBs with which to attack a pitcher with substantial platoon splits in a park that punishes right-handed power, Ivan Nova offers little upside. His 20.2 K% is mostly the result of striking out nine of 27 Marlins in one of his five starts. He’s otherwise sitting on a 16.5 K% in his other four starts, along with owning the highest average exit velocity on the board (91 mph). The Tigers haven’t even been that bad. They have a 103 wRC+ and just an 18.7 K% vs RHP. The one factor in his favor is Detroit’s third lowest 3.68 implied run line this afternoon. Players are being asked to pay $8K for a pitcher who’s upside is often just “probably won’t hurt you”. Opposing him is Michael Fulmer, who’s only really had one bad start, but is not missing bats at all this season (13 K% and no more than four strikeouts in a start). He’s been throwing his sinker over 40% of the time and still only has a league average ground ball rate. It’s a bit telling that he costs less than Nova on either site and the Pirates have a 4.32 implied run line that’s actually top half of the board. Like Nova, he may not hurt you much, but the upside just doesn’t seem to be there. The Pirates have a 97 wRC+, but just a 19.4 K% vs RHP this year. While Fulmer has been strong against RHBs since last season (.268 wOBA, 26 Hard%, 52.3 GB%), xwOBA seems him being about league average without much of a split. The Pirates don’t have anyone that attractive in their lineup. It’s essentially a bunch of league average hitters (Starling Marte’s 121 wRC+ vs RHP since last season tops the lineup) with league average power (Corey Dickerson .212 ISO and Josh Bell .198 ISO are best). The only attraction here might be that Marte is the only bat above $4K on either site. Colin Moran (120 wRC+, .169 ISO, 40.7 Hard%) could be a punt play below $3K though players probably wish he had a better lineup spot.
Other tagged players: Michael Fulmer, Nick Castellanos, Corey Dickerson, Josh Bell, Starling Marte, Colin Moran