DFS Alerts
High Ceiling With Risk
If you’re trying to save some money at pitcher, I think Archer is one of the guys to look at. He has the strikeout ability to win you a slate and should face a right-handed heavy Baltimore team. The three left-handed hitters have a 39.1%, 23.2%, and 21.6% strikeout rate against righties this season. The projected starting lineup has a .286 wOBA with a 27.5% strikeout rate against righties this season. Since the start of 2017, Archer has a 30% strikeout rate against righties and a 27% strikeout rate against lefties. While on the road in Baltimore is not the best spot for Archer, the upside makes up for the risk here.
Another night with a lot of weather related activity in Kevin's MLB forecast
Kevin has just submitted his evening update and, as expected, there’s a lot of rain tonight. Players can read the entire report on the Weather page, but premium subscribers will have access to more in-depth updates starting at 6:30 ET on Crunch Time.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Crunch Time
Cardinals field a lineup of five above a .250 ISO (vs LHP) against a pitcher with 16.3% Barrels/BBE this year
Without Matt Carpenter in the lineup, Steven Matz faces a lineup comprised of seven right-handed batters to start. His 30.7 K% is a fluke (7.4%), though he’s at least been above 8% in three of his four starts. Oddly, he had a 2.2 SwStr% in his highest strikeout game of the season. He also has a strange combination of a very reasonable 86.1 mph aEV and an absurd 16.3% Barrels/BBE. Despite a 55 GB%, he has a tendency to hang quite a few. Right-handed batters have a .367 wOBA, 35.7 Hard%, and 44.9 GB% (LHBs 60.7%) against him since last season. Dexter Fowler (83 wRC+, .144 ISO) and Marcell Ozuna (103 wRC+, .110 ISO) are the only two RHBs in the lineup below a 110 wRC+ and .250 ISO against southpaws since last season and both have a wRC+ around 120 for their career against lefties. Matz’s 10.7 BB% leaves open the possibility of a multi-run homer or two against a high powered team. Jose Martinez (229 wRC+, .522 xwOBA, .406 ISO) appears the most dangerous bat. Matz may also be a pitcher the red bird can run on. For specific ratings, check out one of our newest premium tools, Stolen Base Threat Ratings.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Stolen Base Threat Ratings Other tagged players: Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna Trevor Richards through four starts: 3.4 K-BB%, 6.16 ERA, 5.46 SIERA, .393 xwOBA
The Dodgers have a 4.8 implied line that’s essentially tied for the top mark on the slate against Trevor Richards. Here are some numbers through four major league starts: 3.4 K-BB%, 6.16 ERA, 5.46 SIERA, .393 xwOBA, 41.9% 95+ mph EV. He combines few strikeouts with a lack of control and too much hard contact. Batters from either side have exceeded a .350 wOBA (and xwOBA) and 39 Hard% against him so far. This is easy. Each of the first six batters in the order for the Dodgers exceed a 105 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP since last season with the surprising exception of Corey Seager’s (.162 ISO). Stack ‘em up.
Other tagged players: Corey Seager Alex Cobb has been lit up in both of his starts for the Orioles
The Rays have just a moderate 4.18 implied run line and not a lot of offensive talent, but Alex Cobb signed late, missing a chunk of spring training he’s looked like he’s needed in two starts for the Orioles so far (7 IP – 15 R – 12 ER – 3 HR – 2 BB – 4 K – 42 BF). Players should be able to find some value in a Tampa Bay lineup without a single batter priced above $3.6K on either site. Batters from either side exceed a .330 xwOBA and 35 Hard% against Cobb since last season with left-handed batters producing ground balls at a clip eight points lower than right-handed ones. Denard Span (114 wRC+, .179 ISO), Carlos Gomez (109 wRC+, .211 ISO) and Joey Wendle (128 wRC+, .211 ISO) have been your competent bats since last season against RHP. There may even be some stolen base upside too according to one of our newest premium tools, Stolen Base Threat Ratings.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Stolen Base Threat Ratings Other tagged players: Denard Span, Joey Wendle, Alex Cobb Left-handed batters have a .357 wOBA and 41.1 Hard% against Doug Fister since last season
Doug Fister returns from a short stint on the DL to start his first game in a little over two weeks without a rehab assignment. His workload may be decreased and he still struggles significantly against LHBs (.357 wOBA, .343 xwOBA, 41.1 Hard% since last season). The three lefties for Oakland in the top half of the order are strong plays tonight. That group includes Matt Joyce (128 wRC+, .248 ISO vs RHP since 2017), Jed Lowrie (133 wRC+, .194 ISO) and Matt Olson (171 wRC+, .362 ISO). That latter two both have a 200+ wRC+ and 65+ Hard% over the last week. Khris Davis (135 wRC+, .289 ISO) and Matt Chapman (123 wRC+, .265 ISO) both hit RHP well too. They may be a bit pricey against pitcher who has limited hard contact with the platoon advantage (RHBs 25 Hard% since last season), but may see more advantageous matchups later in the game with Fister not expected to go very deep into this one.
Other tagged players: Matt Chapman, Jed Lowrie, Matt Joyce, Khris Davis Michael Wacha has an xwOBA above .400 with 43.9% 95+ mph EV this season
Michael Wacha (16.1 K%) exceeded five innings for the first time in four starts against the Reds last time out and has been hit hard enough to draw a .401 xwOBA with 43.9% of his contact above a 95 mph EV. While right-handed batters actually have the higher wOBA against him by 22 points since last season, xwOBA flips that in favor of left-handed batters by 33 points. Consider the entire Mets outfield at the top of the order. Michael Conforto (157 wRC+, .272 ISO vs RHP since last season) in the leadoff spot, Yoenis Cespedes (126 wRC+, .225 ISO, 49.3 FB%) hit one into orbit last night, and Jay Bruce (126 wRC+, .265 ISO) collected three hits, including the game-winning homer last night. Each has a hard hit rate between 39-41% against RHP since 2017
Other tagged players: Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, Michael Wacha Texas has a 4.82 implied run line against Kendall Graveman, but few real threats
The Texas lineup is starting to look quite thin with Adrian Beltre’s trip to the DL. In fact, Joey Gallo (119 wRC+, .334 ISO, 46 Hard%) is the only batter in the lineup above a 110 wRC+ or .200 ISO against RHP. Kendall Graveman is a pitcher players certainly want to take advantage of in Texas (4.83 implied run line), as he’s allowed batters from either side of the plate a wOBA and xwOBA of at least .340 since last season, but it’s the lower price tags rather than the actual lineup that becomes more attractive after the one big threat. Right-handed batters have been held on the ground on 58.1% of batted balls, making Shin-Soo Choo (108 wRC+, .198 ISO) and Nomar Mazara (99 wRC+, .182 ISO) the remaining viable plays here. Delino DeShields (83 wRC+, .066 ISO) and Jurickson Profar (53 wRC+, .031 ISO) are nothing more than inexpensive stack pieces who may accidentally get caught up in some run scoring atop the lineup.
Other tagged players: Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara Trevor Bauer has gone seven innings in three straight, but the Cubs have a 127 wRC+ vs RHP
Trevor Bauer continues on a path he set last year, increasing his slider and cutter usage to generate a double digit swinging strike rate and improve the quality of his game overall. So far this season, he’s even improved the quality of his contact, giving him a .307 xwOBA according to Statcast. He has gone at least seven innings with three runs or less in three straight starts. The issue is that there may be better options in or below his price range (Arrieta, Rodriguez) with much better matchups. The Cubs have a 127 wRC+ against RHP this year and a board topping 162 wRC+ over the last week. PlateIQ gives this confirmed lineup a .346 wOBA and .177 ISO vs RHP this season (.332 wOBA, .196 ISO since last season). It’s not that Bauer can’t succeed here, but his recent accomplishments have come against the Orioles, Tigers and Royals. This is certainly a step up in competition and potentially a spot worth avoiding with high priced hitters on the other end.
Clayton Kershaw struggled last start, but has gone seven IP in three straight with the lowest aEV (84.2 mph) on the board
Clayton Kershaw struggled in his last start, allowing a season high four runs with a season low four strikeouts, though he still completed seven innings for the third straight start and did not walk a batter. His 26.9 K% is still third best on the slate, while his 84.2 mph aEV is best on the board, resulting in a .275 xwOBA. Unless he trips on the mound and breaks a bone, he’s as close as it gets in baseball to a sure thing to go at least six innings against the Marlins, who have a board low (by over a full run) 2.2 implied run line tonight. Even a downward trending Kershaw is going to easily be the top play on the board against Miami. The Marlins do have some players in J.T. Realmuto (118 wRC+. .193 ISO), Starlin Castro (143 wRC+, .132 ISO) and Brian Anderson (127 wRC+, .146 ISO), who have handled southpaws well since last season, but without much power and Kershaw has been better without the platoon advantage since last season (RHBs .243 wOBA, 26.1 Hard%, 50 GB%).
Other tagged players: J.T. Realmuto, Starlin Castro, Brian Anderson Zack Greinke struck out just two in his last start as his velocity continues to plummet
Zack Greinke had been continuing to miss bats as his velocity continued to plummet, with both a 14+ SwStr% and a HR allowed in each of his first three starts. In his most recent start, the velocity dropped even more. He struck out just two with a 6.8 SwStr%. The Phillies have a low 3.56 implied run line, but Greinke has a 14.3% Barrels/BBE this year, second worst mark on the board. Greinke has been good against batters from either side of the plate, holding them below a .290 wOBA since last season, but this new information certainly makes at least Rhys Hoskins (170 wRC+, .409 xwOBA, .321 ISO, 42.1 Hard%) a guy players are going to want to check ownership projections on if Kevin’s weather forecast believes this game will play later.
Other tagged players: Zack Greinke Eduardo Rodriguez has a 30.3 K% and .234 xwOBA through three starts
Eduardo Rodriguez is off to a nice start, compiling two straight quality starts (6 IP – 3 total runs) and has a 30.3 K% (15 SwStr%) through three starts. He’s managed contact well also (25.6% 95+ mph EV) on his way to a .234 xwOBA. He also has a reverse platoon split (RHBs .301 xwOBA, 29.8 Hard% since last season), which Toronto fails to take advantage of with a lineup entirely comprised of right-handed and switch hitters. Rodriguez costs less than $8K on either site in what may be a more favorable spot than some realize. Justin Smoak (151 wRC+, .199 ISO) and Kendrys Morales (164 wRC+, .237 ISO) have been the two best hitters in this lineup against southpaws since last season.
Other tagged players: Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales Jake Arrieta struck out 10 last time out, has a 65.2 GB% and .232 xwOBA through three starts
Jake Arrieta followed up a one strikeout performance with 10 over seven one-hit innings against the Pirates last time out. It brought his swinging strike rate in three starts with the Phillies up to 8.1%. The more interesting numbers are a .232 xwOBA without a single barreled ball allowed yet. His board best 20.0 Z-0-Swing% means he’s getting plenty of chases outside the strike zone, resulting in a lot of weak contact and a 65.2 GB%. Tonight, he is facing a confirmed Arizona lineup with a 24.5 K% vs RHP this season (PlateIQ). This, along with weather concerns in this game probably take a mostly weak hitting Arizona lineup out of play (RHBs have a .265 wOBA against Arrieta since last season). With a 3.44 implied run line hat’s second lowest on the board for the Diamondbacks, players are going to want to be tuned in to Kevin’s evening updates to find out how safe Arrieta is in this affair.
Mac Williamson (neck stiffness) scratched Wednesday; Austin Jackson replaces
Williamson has been scratched from the San Francisco Giants original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup with the Washington Nationals due to neck stiffness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Austin Jackson, who will play center field and slot into the eighth spot in the order, moving Gregor Blanco to left field and sliding Brandon Crawford and Nick Hundley each up on spot in the lineup. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Giants order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Max Scherzer this afternoon.
As reported by: Alex Pavlovic via Twitter
Max Scherzer faces a San Francisco offense with an 18.8 K-BB% vs RHP this year
Lineups are not yet confirmed, but it hardly matters who the Giants intend on pitting against Max Scherzer. He’s struck out at least seven in every start and only that few once, failing to reach six innings just once. The Giants have an 18.8 K-BB% vs RHP. Scherzer’s 37.6 K% is nearly a full touchdown ahead of any other pitcher on Wednesday (not just the afternoon slate), resulting in a board low 2.27 SIERA as well to go along with a .255 xwOBA. With Verlander in a more difficult matchup, though both pitchers find themselves in extreme negative run environments, Scherzer is likely the better and more popular play at a slightly higher cost ($13K on DK now). If players do want to be extremely contrarian on a mini-slate, the ball does carry a bit better during the day in San Francisco and Brandon Belt (145 wRC+, .416 xwOBA, .284 ISO, 42.2 Hard%, 53.2 FB%) has been fire (307 wRC+, 52.9 Hard%) and may be being held in San Francisco against his will at this point. While the Giants have the lowest implied run line on the board (3.13), the Nationals are a bottom three team also (3.87). Jeff Samardzija threw five shutout innings at the Angels in his 2018 debut, though he walked as many as he struck out (4) and was lifted after only 80 pitches. One wonders if the workload will be capped below 100 again. Considering the pitcher friendly park and Samardzija’s sub-.300 wOBA (and xwOBA) against RHBs since last season, Bryce Harper (180 wRC+, .437 xwOBA, .344 ISO vs RHP since last season) seems the only reasonable play here, though at a cost that could make him contrarian here too. Lefties have a .323 wOBA and .335 xwOBA against Samardzija since last season. He allowed just eight of his 30 HRs at home in 2017, six to LHBs.
Other tagged players: Brandon Belt, Bryce Harper, Jeff Samardzija