DFS Alerts
Potential To Limit The Damage
Richards really struggled in his first start against Oakland, and that will likely lead to low ownership tonight against Cleveland. We don’t have a ton of value pitchers on this slate tonight, so I’m willing to take a shot on a guy like Richards. He pitched limited innings in 2017 and 2016, but both years he was really good against left-handed hitters. He has a really good fastball and slider combo, and his velocity could give this Cleveland lineup some issues. Encarnacion and Alonso hit 96 well, but the rest of the lineup really struggled with that speed last season. It’s a risky tournament play at best, but don’t be surprised if he pitches really well here.
Boom/Bust Value Play
When looking at the value pitchers on this slate, it’s ugly, and I can’t fall in love with any of them. With that said, I’m willing to take a shot on Jack Flaherty tonight. He started four game for the Cardinals last season, and outside of his first start against the Giants, he pitched well, not great but well. He had 20 strikeouts in 21.1 innings with a 13.1% swinging strike rate. He had a .461 wOBA against lefties, but his xwOBA was .396. He has an elite slider that he uses against right-handed hitters, and he threw it 36% of the time last season. He was able to create a 20.3% swinging strike rate against right-handed hitters last season, and that’s why he has some upside in this matchup tonight. If he can limit the damage against the top of the order, he should be able to do some damage against the bottom of it.
Hidden Upside
When digging into the slate, I realized Kendall Graveman relies on his sinker a lot, and it doesn’t create a lot of swinging strikes. He threw his sinker 48% of the time against lefties last season, and had a .340 xwOBA with it and only a 7.3% swinging strike rate. Odor had a .631 wOBA against sinkers last season, and a .500 wOBA in 2016. He had a .591 ISO against sinkers in 2017 and a .324 in 2016. There is a lot of upside here for Odor, and I don’t expect a lot of people to play him batting this low in the lineup.
Off To A Hot Start
Ryan Flaherty is 8 for 16 to start the season, and while I don’t expect him to keep hitting .500, I do think he presents some value at a limited position on DraftKings tonight. If you’re not paying up for second base tonight, I’m all for trying to find someone under 3k, and I like the hot bat of Flaherty. A.J. Cole has struggled with left-handed hitters in his short career in the Majors. In 50 career innings against lefties, he has a .379 wOBA with a 5.36 xFIP. His hard contact rate to lefties is 38.9% in that span, and his soft contact is only 15.4%. Flaherty isn’t a home run guy, but I like his chances for multiple hits in this game.
Unexpected Good Numbers
I’m looking at the Padres a lot tonight, and it won’t likely end well for me. Jose Pirela has been really good against lefties in a limited sample size. In 87 at bats since the start of last season, he’s hitting .310 with four home runs. He has a .955 OPS with a 151 wRC+, and a .399 wOBA in that span. In 118.1 innings against righties last season, Freeland had a 5.06 xFIP with a 1.56 WHIP. He allowed a .345 wOBA with a 12.2% strikeout rate. With a low strikeout pitcher on the mound, I’m willing to take a chance on these cheap Padres righties.
Cheap Lefty Masher
Anytime Renfroe faces a left-handed pitcher, I’m instantly interested in him. In 118.1 innings against righties last season, Freeland had a 5.06 xFIP with a 1.56 WHIP. He allowed a .345 wOBA with a 12.2% strikeout rate. Since the start of last season, Renfroe has a .373 ISO with a 177 wRC+ and a .440 wOBA against left-handed pitching. The Padres righties present some really good value tonight, and with the elite pitchers on this slate, we’re going to need some value.
Affordable Exposure To A Top Offense
The Astros should again be a top offense to target tonight. Baltimore’s Mike Wright has never seen much success as a starter, and he will have his hands full here. Given the high end bats in other games, I’d prefer to save a little salary and move down the Astros order. Marwin Gonzalez remains too cheap for his skills and lineup spot. He posted a .394 OBP along with 35% hard hits and a .397 wOBA against RHP in 2017. He got on the board with a home run last night and should find himself in the middle of the action again tonight.
Elite Skills Across The Board
After Bryce Harper, I’ll be looking for the other big left-handed bat in this Braves-Nationals game. Washington’s A.J. Cole allows high fly balls and hard hits to left-handed batters. Freeman has elite skills across the board against right-handed pitching with strong plate skills and line drives leading to a .420 OBP, and big power leading to a .293 ISO and .422 wOBA. An ideal play on all sites for cash games and tournaments.
The Top Hitter Of The Night
Harper has everything working in his favor tonight. He faces Julio Teheran, who struggles against lefties, allowing 40% hard hits last season. The ballpark in Atlanta is also a positive for left-handed power. Harper’s plate discipline makes him a cash game stud, and his power, with a .332 ISO vs RHP in 2017, gives him all kinds of upside. We’ve even got a little something for the BvP crowd today with his career .459 avg and 7 HR vs Teheran.
Underappreciated Consistency
If you can afford to pair Justin Verlander with Kershaw, by all means, go for it. But, looking further down the list, Happ jumps out as underpriced for a quality pitcher in a nice matchup against a high strikeout White Sox team. Happ struck out 22.7% of batters in 2017 and posted his third straight season with an ERA under 3.70. He limits walks and never allows a lot of hard contact. He is an underappreciated pitcher in a good matchup at a fair price.
Not The Same, But Still The Best
We need to assume that Kershaw is not the same DFS sure-fire ace as he used to be. However, he is still arguably the best real life pitcher and there is virtually no downside in rostering Kershaw. I’ll stop short of calling him a must-play until we see where his velocity and K% land this season, but there’s no reason to be concerned about a guy who posted a 2.31 ERA/3.04 SIERA with 29.8% strikeouts and 4.4% walks in 2017. And then proceeded to open this season with one run allowed in six innings with seven strikeouts against a high contact opponent.
Austin Hedges (tight back) scratched Monday; A.J. Ellis replaces
Hedges has been scratched from the San Diego Padres original confirmed lineup and will not play in Monday’s matchup with the Colorado Rockies due to upper back tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by A.J. Ellis, who will play catcher and slot directly into Hedges’ eighth spot in the order, meaning the remainder of the Padres lineup stays intact as they face off with Chad Bettis this evening.
As reported by: AJ Cassavell via Twitter
Struggling Bellinger dropped to fifth against Taijuan Walker, Joc Pederson leads off
Cody Bellinger did hit his first HR on Sunday, but entered that game without a hit on the season. He bats fifth instead of his usual cleanup in Arizona tonight. Taijuan Walker had a 3.49 ERA last season, but much higher estimators due to 15 unearned runs. His 88.2 mph aEV is third highest on the board. Perhaps the humidor will help him, but the park is an offensive upgrade for the Dodger regardless. Bellinger still has a career 137 wRC+ and .317 ISO vs RHP and could be a great play if it looks like he may be under-owned due to the slow start. Yasiel Puig is similarly off to a slow start (55 wRC+), but has a 136 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP since last season. Chris Taylor gets a break tonight as Joc Pederson (103 wRC+, .210 ISO) is an inexpensive leadoff bat. Yasmani Grandal (105 wRC+, .231 ISO) is an acceptable alternative to Brian McCann or Welington Castillo.
Other tagged players: Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig, Yasmani Grandal, Taijuan Walker
Four Oakland batters have at least a 115 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP since last year
Bartolo Colon doesn’t miss many bats and is nearing the end of the line, though he did allow just six runs in 18 innings this spring. Perhaps he can take advantage of a young, over-aggressive Oakland lineup who struck out 24.4% of the time against RHP last year, but they also homered on 15.1% of fly balls (15.6% at home). This is a very dangerous spot despite the pitching friendly environment. In the Oakland lineup tonight are four batters (Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Khris Davis, and Matt Joyce) who all had a 115 or better wRC+ and .250 or better ISO against RHP since last year. Jed Lowrie adds a very competent 120 wRC+ and .174 ISO. While Big Bart has fared better against batters from the right-side in recent seasons, he had a universal .381 wOBA against last season (though LHBs did have a much higher 41.3 Hard%).
Other tagged players: Matt Chapman, Bartolo Colon, Jed Lowrie, Matt Joyce, Khris Davis Houston Astros projected to dominate in ownership department tonight
Pitching is rather inexpensive tonight and even with Charlie Morton’s $11.4K cost on DraftKings, plenty of players are expected to pay up for him with the ability to pair him with a cheaper arm. Only three pitchers cost more than $9.4K on DraftKings. While Houston hitters are expected to likewise be highly owned against Chris Tillman, premium subscribers can head on over the Projected Ownership page to find out which other team has several batters projected to be owned at a 15% clip or better and it’s not the team with the second highest implied run line (Toronto).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Charlie Morton