DFS Alerts
LHBs had a .414 wOBA and 46.9 Hard% against A.J. Cole last year
While A.J. Cole misses bats at a near league average rate and increased his ground ball rate to league average as well in his 52 inning major league sample, his 3.81 was way over-stated by an 83.1 LOB%. Estimators were much higher and LHBs, in particular, pummeled him with a .414 wOBA (.379 career), backed by a .393 xwOBA and 46.9 Hard%. Freddie Freeman needs no invitation to destroy right-handed pitching (162 wRC+, .288 ISO since last season), though we’re not really looking at anyone else with strong numbers against righties. Only Ryan Flaherty (123) is also above a 102 wRC+ against RHP since last year with nobody else above a .158 ISO. Add in the fact that Kevin’s forecast is calling for gusting winds blowing in from right and Freeman seems the only strong play here.
Other tagged players: A.J. Cole, Ryan Flaherty
Start of Tuesday's TB-NYY game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees on Tuesday afternoon will be subject to a brief rain delay The teams have already announced that they plan to resume play at 4:15 pm EST, which equates to roughly a 10-minute delay, but it will still be raining at first pitch, so this game carries a bit more risk for starting pitchers should there be another weather delay mid-game.
As reported by: the New York Yankees via Twitter
Welington Castillo backers celebrated last night (two HRs), faces another LHP tonight (Happ)
J.A. Happ held his own against a tough Yankee offense, though 96 pitches failed to get him through five innings (12 swings and misses). The White Sox have an implied run line of just 3.77, although they have several bats fairly proficient against LHP. They didn’t do much against Jaime Garcia last night, though Welington Castillo (146 wRC+, .242 ISO, 42.3 Hard% vs LHP since last season) backers were happy (two HRs). Happ allowed RHBs just a .317 wOBA (.304 xwOBA) with a 28.5 Hard%, so he’s still not the ideal pitcher to attack, but Jose Abreu (183 wRC+, .284 ISO, 44.8 Hard%) merits consideration along with Matt Davidson (114 wRC+, .246 ISO), though he’s gone just one for eight since his three HR outburst on Opening Day. Avisail Garcia has strong results against LHP since the start of last year (173 wRC+, 41.2 Hard%), but with an even .500 BABIP and league average .151 ISO.
Other tagged players: J.A. Happ, Jose Abreu, Matt Davidson, Avisail Garcia Adam Eaton has a slate leading 387 wRC+ (10 PA min.) and faces a pitcher with major platoon issues
Among batters with at least 10 PAs this season, Adam Eaton (387 wRC+, 66.7 Hard%) and Matt Davidson (364 wRC+, 66.7 Hard%) are off to the hottest starts. The latter faces yet another LHP (J.A. Happ), but is just one for eight since his Opening Day three home run assault on Danny Duffy. He now has a 114 wRC+ and .246 ISO vs LHP since last season, but Happ has been competent with the platoon disadvantage (RHBs .317 wOBA, 28.5 Hard% last year). Eaton is in a stronger spot against Julio Teheran, a pitcher with notable career splits. Last year, LHBs had a .338 wOBA (.356 xwOBA) against him with a 35.8 Hard%. Derek Fisher has a 181 wRC+ and MLB leading 71.4 Hard% (10 PA min.). While he’ll likely bat at the bottom of the order, he offers low priced exposure to one of the top projected offenses tonight against Mike Wright (88.8 mph aEV, 8.5% Barrels/BBE). He stands a good chance of batting with runners on base and scoring if he reaches. He turns into a must play if he finds himself near the top of the order with Carlos Correa potentially out. Charlie Blackmon (310 wRC+, 53.9 Hard%) leads the majors with four HRs and hasn’t even played a game at Coors yet. Tyson Ross makes his return to the Padres after missing most of the last two seasons and looking terrible when he did pitch for the Rangers last year. Even at his best, he struggled to throw strikes to LHBs consistently (11.3 career BB%).
Other tagged players: Matt Davidson, Charlie Blackmon, Derek Fisher Kershaw and Verlander are the clear top pitchers on the main board
The top two arms on the main board tonight are fairly obvious. They are the only two $10K+ pitchers on either site. Clayton Kershaw struggled despite allowing only a run against the Giants, stranding seven other base runners. Yet, he still generated an 18.7 SwStr%. His 25.3 K-BB% last season was his worst since 2013, but still fourth best in baseball. Even if we assume he’s entering his decline phase, that just means he may have a few peers in the league now instead of standing alone atop the heap. At his best, Kershaw tested the price limits of the site algorithms. At his current cost ($11.5K/$12.2K), he has value. Humidor or not, this is not a park or spot that should be a concern yet. Justin Verlander is the other top on the slate and perhaps a top value in a strong spot, hosting the Orioles. He was an absolute beast with a 31.7 K-BB% in five regular season starts for the Astros and a 22.1 K-BB% in 36.2 more post-season innings. He followed up a strong spring (24 in 22 innings, allowing just four runs) and Opening Day start in Texas (6 IP – 4 H – 0 R – 2 BB – 5 K). His extreme fly ball tendencies are the sole concern against a powerful right-handed lineup in a park that still plays power friendly for RHBs, but it’s one of the most overall negative run environments in baseball with the upside far outweighing the risks. The two pitchers are separated by $1.2K on FanDuel, but just $600 on DraftKings, where players will most certainly need to make a choice.
Other tagged players: Clayton Kershaw Cheap
Best part about a Blue Jays stack outside of their slate leading 5.3 implied run total? They’re cheap – especially on DraftKings. Some individual Blue Jays will be chalky and can certainly be considered cash game plays but their likely high ownership isn’t keeping me away in GPPs. The price tags on guys like Yangervis Solarte and Randal Grichuk allow you the luxury to mess around at other spots leading to different lineup construction – i.e. tinker with two high priced starting pitchers when most people will only run out one high priced pitcher.
Other tagged players: Randal Grichuk, Justin Smoak, Russell Martin
Run, Charlie! Run!
We’re targeting power with our Angels stack, and we’re targeting speed with our Rockies stack. Well, to be fair, Blackmon can give us some power as well. Tyson Ross is back with the Padres, and even in his good years Ross struggled mightily with holding runners on base (see -2 and -3 stolen bases runs saved in 2014 and 2015 respectively). Blackmon and LeMahieu give you some speed upside in this matchup while CarGo and Arenado round out the stack nicely with power potential.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, DJ LeMahieu Homer Prone
It’s only my second day writing up top stacks and I’m already sick of telling you guys to target HRs and SBs with your stacks. Tomlin is neutral in terms of stolen base prevention, but woo doggie does the fella struggle with the long ball. Tomlin has a career 13.7% home run to fly ball ratio and is a main stay atop the yearly HR’s allowed leaderboard. Even better is the fact that he doesn’t discriminate – he gives up power to both sides of the plate. Queue up Angels power hitters in this one.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Kole Calhoun, Luis Valbuena Top Talent, High Ceiling
From a pure talent perspective, Godley is a top three option tonight. Contextual factors aren’t really working in his favor – mainly a tough matchup versus the Dodgers – but there’s still upside here for Godley who maintained a 26.3% strikeout rate last season. Godley should see low ownership on Tuesday despite having one of the highest ceilings on the board.
Best Option at a Thin Position
Shortstop is ugly tonight. It’s typically one of the thinnest around, but even the top guys have question marks. Carlos Correa left yesterday’s game early and Trea Turner is facing a pitcher that has been tough on right-handed batters. It makes sense to pay down for Marcus Semien, who should be batting leadoff in an exploitable matchup against Cole Hamels.
Bad Weather Baller
Typically in baseball we want to avoid weather issues – especially in cash games. In GPPs, however, poor weather can lead to decreased ownership, and in the case of hitters, a poor hitting environment. Cold, wet weather makes it hard to hit the ball far, which gives pitchers a little more room for error. More room for error is great for a pitcher like Matt Harvey who tends to make plenty of mistakes every time he toes the rubber. While Harvey was terrible last year, this spots sets up pretty well for him – bad weather + bad opponent. The Phillies implied run total has dropped nearly half a run and is down to 3.6, the third lowest total of the slate. I wouldn’t expect a huge strikeout performance from Harvey here but he should be able to eat some innings and limit damage.
Paying up for a High Floor in Cash Games
I rarely put stock into projections in baseball because the sport is so volatile game to game. The best hitters in the sport will have plenty of games where they score zero fantasy points. With that said, Jose Altuve has one of the highest floors of any player at any position. He hits for average, he hits for power, he can score and drive in runs, and he steals bases. He also plays for the best offense in the league. The Astros should be busy on the base paths again tonight, as they square off against Mike Wright at home.
RBI Potential in a High Scoring Offense
The Blue Jays may not have as much power in their lineup as they did in previous years, but they are still a formidable opponent. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against Miguel Gonzalez and they get to face him at home in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Curtis Granderson is cheap across the industry and should be hitting fifth on a team that has one of the highest implied run totals of the slate.
Good Value on this SP2 on DraftKings
Garrett Richards got off to a shaky start in his first start of the season, but he pitched out of a few jams and ended up with a serviceable outing against the A’s. He draws a tough matchup on paper against the Indians, but he gets to face them at home in the pitcher-friendly Angels Stadium. This play is more about strikeout upside at this price point than anything else. At his best, Richards had one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball.
Elite Arm at a Discounted Price
The masses will gravitate to Clayton Kershaw as their SP1, but there are enough arguments to play Justin Verlander at a cheaper price point and at lower ownership. Kershaw’s velocity on his four-seem fastball was down a bit in the opener. While he pitched well, he draws a much tougher matchup tonight against the Diamondbacks in Arizona. Meanwhile, Verlander gets to pitch at home against a high-strikeout offense. The projected lineup for the Orioles has a 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.