DFS Alerts
Osuna may not be available out of Toronto pen, but Liriano will be
While Roberto Osuna is on the ALDS roster for the Blue Jays, his availability due to a minor arm injury is in question. What’s not in question is Francisco Liriano’s availability out of the bullpen for the Jays in this series as the team expects to use him as a late inning reliever. How does this change the way players should think about Texas bats in this series? Probably not much for Game One today. Marco Estrada does not have much of a split with RHBs hitting him slightly better than LHBs this season. Liriano did pitch well for Toronto and may be able to dominate LHBs in shorter stints (.272 wOBA, 59.9 GB% vs LHBs career), but players rostering RH Texas bats today might be less concerned.
As reported by: Ben Nicholson-Smith Other tagged players: Roberto Osuna
Cole Hamels walked at least three in 15 of 32 starts, Blue Jays fourth highest walk rate (10.2%) vs LHP
Cole Hamels may easily have the most upside on this small slate. His 23.6 K% is the highest among the four starters, his 9.1 BB% with at least three walks in 15 of 32 starts suggests some blowup potential as well against an offense with the fourth highest walk rate against LHP (10.2%). Another consideration might be that rostering him likely means you’re sacrificing most middle of the order bats from any lineup as the highest priced pitcher (or at least tied) on either site. The Blue Jays actually had a higher wRC+ (103 vs 100) and more power (15.0 HR/FB vs 13.0 HR/FB) vs RHP, but Hamels allowed 12 of his 24 HRs this year at home to RHBs even if he did have better peripherals against them (15.4 K-BB% vs 10.8 K-BB% vs LHBs). Josh Donaldson was the leading Toronto hitter vs LHP this year (150 wRC+, .240 ISO), but Edwin Encarnacion (142 wRC+, .247 ISO) wasn’t far behind, while both he and Troy Tulowitzki (104 wRC+, .165 ISO vs LHP this season) both have two HRs with an average exit velocity above 96 mph against Hamels in their career. Each of Tulo’s HRs came in Philadelphia, not Colorado.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, Cole Hamels Toronto tabs extreme fly ball pitcher, Marco Estrada, to start Game One in Texas
Marco Estrada is a curious choice to start Game One for the Blue Jays in Texas. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (0.69 GB/FB), while Toronto has several ground ball heavier ones, but this is where they’re placing their trust in this game. The park has been more run friendly than a power booster in recent seasons, but it’s still far from ideal for his skillset. Estrada led the rotation with a 22.8 K%, but also had the highest walk rate (9%) and had a 4.27 ERA (4.19 FIP) in the second half. While the estimators match his first half, the ERA is a big jump. It’s debatable whether this was the effect of a lingering back issue or just a sub-.200 BABIP and 80+ LOB% regressing as might be expected. The Rangers were just an average offense vs RHP (98 wRC+), but hit well at home (107 wRC+). Estrada costs $7.8K on FanDuel, $8.6K on DraftKings. While there are no real standout pitchers today, he seems a bit of a risk in this park. While Texas is a well-balanced lineup, RHBs hit Estrada slightly better than LHBs (.293 wOBA, with 12 HRs vs .266 wOBA with 11 HRs). The Texas offense is well-balanced if anything with the top three hitters against RHP (while with Texas) are RHBs. Carlos Gomez had a 141 wRC+ and .284 ISO vs RHP in 114 PAs after being signed, Jonathan Lucroy had a 124 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP since the trade and Adrian Beltre (121 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP) was as hot as anyone down the stretch. Texas is currently projected for the highest run total today (4.6), but it’s a very small lead over Boston and Toronto. Players may be forced to consider one of the lower priced pitchers though, if paying for middle of the order bats in any lineup.
Other tagged players: Jonathan Lucroy, Carlos Gomez, Marco Estrada Giants own the second-lowest strikeout rate versus RHP in baseball (17.3%)
Noah Syndergaard has already made four postseason appearances (three starts), even though this just his second season in the majors. Last year, he posted a 3.32 ERA with 26 strikeouts in only 19 innings of work during the Mets insane playoff run. Syndergaard has been dominant for the better part of the season, boasting a 2.95 SIERA with a 29.3% strikeout rate and a walk rate of 5.8%. It’s always tough to predict ownership in these situations, but it’s possible the masses lean more towards the more proven commodity of Bumgarner. However, based on a pure run suppression standpoint, we’re going to have to give the smallest of edges to Syndergaard here, as the Giants’ offense has been much worse than the Mets’ offense of late. In fact, over the final month of play, San Francisco had the fourth lowest team wOBA in MLB. This matchup has an over/under of just 6.0 runs, which is significantly lower than any other game on either slate. Optimally, we would prefer to fade the Giants’ offense altogether, but if targeting someone in this matchup, give an edge to those that hit from the left side of the plate like Brandon Belt (136 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .193 ISO vs RHP) or Brandon Crawford (.180 ISO vs RHP). Speedy, contact hitters, Denard Span and Angel Pagan, are also in consideration solely due to Syndergaard’s woeful ability to hold runners on base.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Denard Span, Angel Pagan
Bumgarner posted a K rate north of 26% versus right and left-handed batters this season
The Giants aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut, which became extemely evident through the home stretch of the regular season, but strong pitching positioned them to grab the final wildcard spot in the National League. Even if there are concerns about their offense, they have to feel good with their ace on the mound. In 34 starts this season, Madison Bumgarner posted a 3.36 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27.5% and a walk rate of 5.9%. He is tough on hitters from both sides of the plate and he has as good of a postseason track record as anyone. In 14 career playoff outings, he has a 2.14 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP. As for the Mets, they draw one of the most difficult matchups in all of baseball but do have a few things going for them in this spot. For the season, they ranked tenth in team wOBA and sixth in team ISO against left-handed pitching. The Mets have the advantage of playing at home and their offense has been consistently better over the last month (107 wRC+, .328 wOBA, .172 ISO in Sept/Oct). Unfortunately, that may not be enough to overcome a matchup against Bumgarner, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA this season. Though, if in search of of some contrarian hitting options for either slate, look no further than the top of the Mets order with Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera (126 wRC+, .356 wOBA vs LHP), and Yoenis Cespedes (183 wRC+, .441 wOBA, .282 ISO vs LHP), as it is likely that they will be the primary source of production if New York is able manage any sort offense in this matchup with Bumgarner.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Yoenis Cespedes, Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera A Contrarian Take on the AL/NL Wild Card DFS Slate
Welcome to the 2016 MLB Playoffs! The Wild Card round kicks off tonight with the Orioles taking on the Blue Jays in the Rogers Centre, followed by the Giants squaring off with the Mets in New York tomorrow evening. On microscopic-sized slates such as this, we need to be even more conscious about ownership percentages and utilizing leverage plays off of those projections in large-field tournaments. This is especially important in a sport like MLB where variance is so drastic slate-to-slate. The Blue Jays have the best matchup, they are playing in the best hitting ballpark, and they have the highest implied team total in the slate. They are going to be the chalk in both cash games and tournaments and it’s hard to stomach a Toronto fade in any format. However, fading the Blue Jays stack in tournaments is something that we need to seriously consider if we want any shot at shipping a large-field tournament on this slate. Possibly the most optimal strategy is to not stack any offense in tournaments, as there is a much lower chance that any of them go off to an extent that we would need them to win. This also gives us some built-in lineup differentiation with a majority of players choosing a stack of some kind. In addition, don’t be afraid to use leverage plays, such as Chris Davis (119 wRC+, .352 wOBA, .264 ISO) against a right-handed ground ball pitcher in Stroman or speedy contact hitters like Denard Span (11.5% K% vs RHP) and Angel Pagan (12.1% K% vs RHP) against Noah Syndergaard and his woeful ability to hold base runners. These are just a few options to consider in an effort to differentiate ourselves from all the Stroman and Toronto stacked lineups in tournaments for this two-day, two-game MLB Wild Card slate.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Starting Lineups Page Other tagged players: Marcus Stroman, Noah Syndergaard, Denard Span, Angel Pagan Bourn bats eighth with Pedro Alvarez OUT as Buck goes for defense in AL Wild Card game
While not considered a major surprise, Pedro Alvarez’s absence here is interesting as Buck Showalter elects to DH Mark Trumbo and go for defense in this game with Michael Bourn roaming the Outfield. Alvarez does have the highest exit velocity against the opposing pitcher since last season, his 105 mph aEV against Stroman came only four batted balls though (one HR). Stroman was the only pitcher in baseball to keep the ball on the ground more than 60% of the time this season. Matt Wieters has had the most success against him with two HRs and three extra-base hits in 15 career PAs, but with just an 83.1 mph aEV on 11 batted balls since last season.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Marcus Stroman, Pedro Alvarez, Michael Bourn Mike Winters (NL WC Home Plate Umpire) could give a small boost to Bumgarner
Marc Simon, an ESPN writer, who does a great job covering the Mets, tweeted an interesting little tidbit concerning the umpire drawing the home plate assignment for tomorrow’s National League Wild Card game. It seems that Mr. Winters occasionally opens up the strike zone on the outside corner to RHBs. While this would appear to be a small benefit for Madison Bumgarner, he also notes that overall, Winters has a strike zone slightly smaller than average. A later tweet also showed a graph of Bumgarner’s strike calls outside the zone this season, mentioning three to four per game due to Buster Posey being the top framers in the game this year according to StatCorner.com (+26.8 RAA). Bumgarner was far from infallible in the second half of the season though (3.80 ERA, 4.11 FIP) and allowed 19 HRs on the road this season. Citi Field is a pitcher’s park, but plays more neutrally towards power. Another concern, especially for FanDuel players, who have to have their lineup locked tonight, is that the Mets lineup is probably the more uncertain of the two. We have to figure that Reyes, Cabrera, Cespedes, and both Riveras will be in there from the right side with Granderson and Bruce from the left, but Terry Collins last week even mentioned the possibility of using Eric Campbell at First Base tomorrow night. The Mets scored four runs the last time they faced Bumgarner a month and a half ago in San Francisco. All four of those runs came on a Grand Slame from Justin Ruggiano, who won’t be available in this game.
As reported by: Marc Simon Other tagged players: Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, T.J. Rivera, Rene Rivera, Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, Eric Campbell No surprises in Toronto lineup, several bats with multiple HRs against Tillman
As mentioned in an earlier alert, five Toronto bats have multiple HRs against Chris Tillman with Tulowtizki, Encarnacion, Bautista and Pillar all owning three HRs against him and Saunders two. Josh Donaldson has just one HR, but five doubles in 36 career PAs and a 92.8 mph aEV on 22 batted balls since the beginning of last season (the largest PvB batted ball sample in the WC round). Don’t expect Buck Showalter to allow Tillman to hang around too long if he starts to smell trouble though. This is a winner take all game with a Baltimore bullpen that had the third lowest ERA in the majors (3.40) with 5.5 fWAR (fifth). This is Tillman’s game to start, but could be the bullpen’s game quickly if things go awry. The Blue Jays are the favorite in this game, currently projected for 4.4 runs.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Troy Tulowitzki, Chris Tillman, Michael Saunders, Kevin Pillar, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista Four Blue Jays have three career HRs against Chris Tillman
While both Chris Tillman and Marcus Stroman generated hard hit rates right around the league average between 31.5% and 31.7%, Tillman allowed much more contact in the air (1.13 GB/FB), which could cause problems for him tonight, especially with the roof open. Although he did not allow a HR against the Blue Jays in two of his four starts against them this season, he did not pitch very well despite decent traditional results (22.1 IP – 10 R – 9 ER – 9 BB – 16 K – 93 BF). Additionally, four Toronto batters (Encarnacion, Pillar, Tulowitzki, Bautista) all have homered three times against Tillman in their career. While all except Pillar have a 93+ mph aEV on at least nine batted balls since the beginning of 2015 against him, both he and Tulo have hit their HRs in fewer than 25 career PAs in this matchup. Michael Saunders also has two HRs against Tillman in 20 PAs. Tillman has an 11.0 career HR/FB that’s usually been around league average, though he’s held that this year (10.5 HR/FB), while starting pitchers in general allowed an all-time high 13.3 HR/FB this season.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Chris Tillman, Michael Saunders, Kevin Pillar, Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki Open roof at Rogers Centre tonight could favor Stroman, who led majors in GB rate (60.1%)
Considering the Toronto has elected to leave the roof open for tonight’s AL Wild Card game, they would likely have a benefit in mind and it probably has to do with Marcus Stroman’s league leading 60.1 GB%. He did allow two more HRs than Tillman (21-19), but also threw 30 more innings. While the pitching focus will be largely on the NL game tomorrow, Stroman could be the key to daily fantasy players, costing nearly the same as Tillman on either site and much less than his NL counterparts. He increased his strikeout rate from 16.9% in the first half of the season to 22.7% in the second half. He did struggle against Baltimore this season (23 IP – 18 ER in four starts), but three of those starts, and all four HRs he allowed against them, took place before the All-Star break. The Orioles had a 107 wRC+ vs RHP (highest among WC teams) with a .198 ISO that led the majors, but they also struck out 21.5% of the time, behind only Toronto (22.5%) among WC teams.
Salvador Perez is an elite option at the C position today
Josh Tomlin squares off against the Royals today in a game that does have first-round home-field implications. Tomlin has not been on top of his game, striking at a paltry 8% of batters that he has faced over the last fourteen days. Tomlin’s saving grace is his fantastic hard-contact allowed percentage, sitting at a minuscule 23% over that period. The soft contact is not a new phenomenon for Tomlin this year, considering that he has a respectable 31% hard-contact allowed rate on allowed to righties on the year. However, even with a small amount of hard contact, Tomlin has still managed to allow 2.03 HR/9 to RHBs, making any of the hot-hitting Royals RHBs interesting today. Salvador Perez makes a perfect choice, batting 4th and playing the always crucial C position.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Josh Tomlin
Stack of the Day: New York Mets
Jerad Eickhoff has struggled against LHBs this year, holding an xFIP of 4.76 and allowing a HR/9 of 1.65. Eickhoff is facing a team who will be sending four batters to the plate with wRC+ totals over 100 versus RHP. The Mets 1-hole through 4-hole hitters have proven they can mash righties, each possessing at least an ISO of 0.200 against RHP. Eickhoff’s start could get ugly, so stack the Mets (Curtis Granderson, Asdrubal Cabrera, Lucas Duda, and Jay Bruce) and wait for the figurative fireworks.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce, Jerad Eickhoff Orioles lefties look to take advantage of Cessa's flyball issues
Luis Cessa is not finishing the season on a high note, allowing hard contact on 39% of at-bats that have ended in contact over the last two weeks, while only striking out 17% of hitters he faced over that period. Lefties have hitting Cessa hard 40% of the time and elevating the ball in 38% of at-bats that have ended in contact. Michael Bourn will try and set the table for the Orioles today, leading off in front of the O’s power bats. Chris Davis holds a 0.265 ISO versus RHP and makes a high-risk/high-reward play every time he takes the field.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Michael Bourn Stephen Drew is an incredible value play at SS today
Tom Koehler has a meager 16% k-rate over the last two weeks, coupled with a massive 48% hard contact rate. Koehler has surrendered xFIPs of 4.70 and 4.60 to LHBs and RHBs, respectively, meaning that all of the Nationals hitters in the lineup today are in play. Stephen Drew is an incredible option at the shortstop position today, seeing that Drew has hit the ball hard in 69% of at-bats that have ended in contact while only striking out 5% of the time. That is an elite combination that should lead to a productive Sunday for Stephen Drew.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Tom Koehler