DFS Alerts
Weather permitting, two-man stack of the day: Justin Turner and Andrew Toles
There are dissenting opinions how much the way that a pitcher finishes the season predicts future performance in the playoffs, but Cole Hamels showed us that sometimes it is difficult to flip the switch. Over the last three weeks of the season, Tanner Roark was the worst pitcher of the four taking the mound today. However, Roark did produce some positive peripheral numbers over that period, exhibiting a respectable strikeout rate over that period, whiffing 23% of batters that he faced, and inducing a decent amount of soft contact, limiting his hard contact rate to 22%. His flyball rate was average, sitting at 33%, which lead to only 0.78 HR/9. With these numbers that are not egregious, we can point to the three walks per game Roark has issued that have helped his SIERA balloon to 4.59 over the last 21 days of the season. On the season, Roark has interesting splits, allowing more flyballs to left-handed batters, 36%, but only surrendering a 6% HR/FB. His hard contact allowed to lefties is not exceptionally low when compared to his hard contact versus RHBs, sitting at 29% and 20%, respectively. Roark strikes out lefties at a slightly lower rate too, 19% of at-bats this year, compared to a k-rate of 21% against RHBs. Four Dodgers jump off the page versus RHPs this year, including Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, Justin Turner, and Andrew Toles, possessing wRC+ totals this year versus RHP of 156, 146, 146, and 139, respectively. With only a 2-game slate today, taking a risk on guys with great power versus RHP may not be a bad strategy, and Joc Pederson led the Dodgers in ISO versus righties, sitting at 0.278 and 0.268, respectively. They both strike out over 26% of the time versus RHP, but the aforementioned Roark has not dominated lefties by any means. On a two-game slate, playing less popular players who are still in a position to succeed is not a poor strategy. Andrew Toles and Justin Turner fit that criterion, so they will qualify as today’s two-man stack of the day.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Andrew Toles, Yasmani Grandal, Joc Pederson, Tanner Roark
Kevin Roth's weather report has a rating of ORANGE for LAD @ WASH
Kevin Roth’s weather report is out, and with only two games on the slate tonight, there is plenty to be concerned about in Washington tonight. Roth has given the Dodgers-Nationals game a rating of ORANGE, writing that there is a chance they could wait for the rain to pass and start later in the night, but he was not able to guarantee that possibility. Check out his full report for details.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Zobrist to LF, Baez at 2B in Game One for Cubs against Cueto
Johnny Cueto could be the odd man out on a slate that features many high upside pitchers and a couple in stronger spots. Though he did have a much higher 14.3 HR/FB on the road, perhaps he shouldn’t be overlooked at a reasonable cost below $10K on either site. The Cubs are an above average offense (103 wRC+ vs RHP), but struck out 21.5% of the time vs RHP and owe much of their success to patience (10.3 BB% vs RHP) with just a league average 12.6 HR/FB against righties. While Kevin noted significant wind gusts up to 20 mph in his forecast, those winds will be blowing across the field and neither in or out. For the Cubs, there are no major surprised with David Ross the regular Catcher for Lester, but his bat does offer a small upgrade for Cueto. Electing to go with Baez (82 wRC+, .144 ISO vs RHP) puts Zobrist (123 wRC+, .182 ISO vs RHP) in LF and could add a strikeout to Cueto’s total, though Baez has really cut down on whiffs this season (26.4% vs RHP). Cueto did not show a particular weakness or strength to batters from either side of the plate over another this year. Both Rizzo (154 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP) and Bryant (139 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP) have obvious HR upside.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Ben Zobrist, David Ross, Johnny Cueto, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez
Max Scherzer allowed just 10 of his 31 HRs in the second half, double digit Ks in 13 of last 27 starts
Max Scherzer may be the one pitcher on the slate that can match Kershaw’s upside and potentially throw a complete game as well. The Dodgers might not be the best matchup for a HR prone righty (109 wRC+, 15.6 HR/FB vs RHP), but Scherzer allowed just 10 of 31 HRs in the second half while striking out 10 or more in 13 of his last 27 starts. Scherzer is matchup proof with no concerns about workload.Despite still striking them out at a 25.5% cliip, LHBs did have a .323 wOBA against Scherzer. Corey Seager (156 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP) may still be the top SS play. GPP players looking for a potentially low owned player with a decent chance of a HR, could consider Joc Pederson (.146 wRC+, .278 ISO vs RHP). He led the team in ISO against RHP and moves up to sixth tonight. Yasmani Grandal (123 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP) was second and a reasonably affordable choice for Catcher.
Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Yasmani Grandal, Joc Pederson Kershaw just fourth highest priced pitcher on FanDuel ($10.2K)
It’s hard to recall the last time Kershaw (if ever) wasn’t the most expensive pitcher on the slate. Indeed, he is on DraftKings, but still at a discount over his normal cost ($12K), but on FanDuel, he’s just the fourth highest priced arm ($10.2K). Kershaw is still the best pitcher on the planet and answered post-season issues last season with a strong performance even though the Dodgers were bounced in the first round. He’s still the top pitcher on any slate. The Nationals had a 105 wRC+ with a 16.4 HR/FB vs LHP, but still struck out 20% of the time. Paying for Kershaw will rarely leave players disappointed and the Washington lineup takes a hit with the loss of Wilson Ramos from the middle of that order. Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth flip spots today. Werth remained potent against LHP in a down year (172 wRC+, .298 ISO) and even has two HRs against Kershaw (39 PAs with 12 Ks). Daniel Murphy (139 wRC+, .219 ISO vs LHP) returns to the lineup and we all know what he did to elite pitching (including Kershaw) in the post-season last year, but questions remain about how healthy he really is right now.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth, Daniel Murphy Rangers have are the only team with an implied run total greater than four runs (4.3)
J.A. Happ has a 3.18 ERA on the season, but his advanced statistics suggest that he hasn’t been quite that dominant. In 32 starts, he posted a 4.28 SIERA with a strikeout rate of just 20.5%. He also draws a difficult matchup today against a Rangers’ offense that was ranked eighth in team wOBA against left-handed pitching during the regular season. This is basically a must win spot for Texas as well, making Happ easy to avoid outside of the most contrarian of tournament lineups. There are a ton of reasons to load up on the Rangers’ offense and hopefully the recency bias of yesterday’s game will lower their ownership a bit. J.A. Happ allowed 22 home runs in the regular season; three to left-handed hitters and 19 to right-handed hitters. The Texas righties are where we are going to want to focus, but don’t rule out Rougned Odor (.186 ISO vs LHP) who has shown some pop against left-handed pitching in the past and will likely be one of the lower owned Rangers hitters. Adrian Beltre (163 wRC+, .418 wOBA, .271 ISO vs LHP), Carlos Beltran (158 wRC+, .407 wOBA, .252 ISO vs LHP), Jonathan Lucroy (.250 ISO vs LHP), and Ian Desmond (129 wRC+, .369 wOBA, .168 ISO vs LHP) are the top options for Texas in this matchup with Happ.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Carlos Beltran, Rougned Odor, Jonathan Lucroy, Ian Desmond, J.A. Happ
A great day for baseball in Kevin's divisional series forecast
It may be a bit gusty at Wrigley, blowing across the field, but there are no significant weather concerns across today’s four games in Kevin’s forecast. It’s not going to be as hot in Texas as it was yesterday, but a 15 to 20 mph wind out to RF could boost LH power in the game with today’s highest total.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page David Price had a 3.43 ERA, 18.5 K-BB% last nine starts, Napoli has struck out 24 of 48 PAs against him (w/ two HRs)
There happens to be a narrative out there that David Price can’t pitch in the post-season. Most times, a good pitcher is generally going to be a good pitcher over a larger sample size. This puts Price in a nice spot tonight in Cleveland, or at least relative to the other matchups on an elite pitching board. He’s the second lowest priced pitcher and a near necessity on DraftKings for just $8K. He finished strong with a 3.43 ERA and 18.5 K-BB% over his last nine starts, allowing more than three runs just twice, though he did allow eight of 30 HRs over his last five starts this season. Cleveland has shown much less power (10.0 HR/FB) vs LHP, striking out 20.5% of the time against them. Where Price is a bit more expensive, on FanDuel, players could consider Brandon Guyer (181 wRC+, .220 ISO vs LHP) as a cost saver in the OF for just $2.4K. Jose Ramirez (127 wRC+, .162 ISO) and Mike Napoli (120 wRC+, .189 ISO) are the other strong hitters against LHP in this lineup. Napoli has more career PAs against Price than any batter against any pitcher today. In 48 meetings, he does have two HRs, but has struck out 24 times. That’s a 50% strikeout rate!!
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Brandon Guyer, Jose Ramirez, Mike Napoli Devon Travis has been scratched from the Blue Jays lineup
Travis was scratched from the Toronto lineup due to “right knee irritation”, according to the club. Darwin Barney will replace him at 2B and bat ninth. Ezequiel Carrera gets the bump all the way to lead off from the nine-hole and is certainly in consideration if fading Yu Darvish in any format.
As reported by: Rob MacLeod, Sports Writer for The Globe and Mail Other tagged players: Darwin Barney, Ezequiel Carrera Yu Darvish finished with at least eight strikeouts in each of his last four starts (38.4 K%) and struck out nine or more in eight of his 17 starts overall.
Yu Darvish finished with at least eight strikeouts in each of his last four starts (38.4 K%) and struck out nine or more in eight of his 17 starts overall. From a daily fantasy standpoint, he’s the highest upside arm in the ALDS, though he has to contend with Kershaw and Scherzer for your DFS dollars today and he may not have the stamina of those two, as he went seven innings just three times in 17 starts, throwing more than 100 pitches just twice. Still, the fourth highest priced pitcher on DraftKings, he’s worth a shot as the Blue Jays struck out 22.4% of the time vs RHP. While he’s not a pitcher players should normally look to attack, only Josh Donaldson (156 wRC+, .272 ISO vs RHP) is above $3.8K on either site ($4.2K on DraftKings) and Darvish did allow six of his 12 HRs this year to RHBs at home. The Blue Jays did not face Darvish this year, but Edwin Encarnacion (132 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP) did have two HRs in 20 career PAs (five Ks too) before the Tommy John surgery.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson Indians currently have the lowest implied run total (4.0) of this short two-game slate
Rick Porcello finished the season on a high note, posting a 2.70 ERA with a 22.0% strikeout rate in his last six starts. He has great command of all his pitches and is generally able to limit the hard contact against him (27.2% career Hard%). Porcello has made eight postseason appearances, posting a 4.41 ERA (2.17 FIP) with an 18.3% strikeout rate. The primary cause for concern with Porcello in this spot is his matchup against the Indians, who were ranked tenth or better in team wOBA, team ISO, and team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. The positive news is that he is a decent favorite in this game because the Indians have to start Trevor Bauer. Porcello has been tough on hitters from both sides of the plate, but he did allow a 32.1% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters this season. This puts some of the Indians lefties, Carlos Santana (144 wRC+, .388 wOBA, .285 ISO vs RHP), Tyler Naquin (138 wRC+, .378 wOBA, .225 ISO vs RHP), and Jason Kipnis (120 wRC+, .353 wOBA, .200 ISO vs RHP), into consideration as one offs or part of a mini-stack given their ability generate fantasy points on their own. However, given the lack of pitching options in this slate, Porcello is the likely top pitching play in all formats.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Carlos Santana, Tyler Naquin, Jason Kipnis Brock Holt a potential salary saver in the second spot against Bauer
A bit of a surprise in the Boston lineup has Brock Holt (101 wRC+, .147 ISO vs RHP) batting second tonight against Trevor Bauer. Bauer is the lowest priced pitcher on the board facing the top offense in baseball (113 wRC+, 34.2 Hard% vs RHP). Projected for 4.6 runs, just behind Texas, the Boston offense should be popular toinght, but Holt now offers a way to save some without sacrificing much. He could be especially useful on FanDuel where it’s more difficult to afford one of the more two more expensive pitchers along with any middle of the order bats. Bauer had some strange splits this season. He held LHBs to just a .299 wOBA with a 17.5 K-BB%, while RHBs had a .320 wOBA with a 7.2 K-BB%, but a ground ball rate over 15 points higher (55.8% to 39.9% vs LHBs). David Ortiz (173 wRC+, .350 ISO vs RHP) and Mookie Betts (141 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP) are top bats for those who can fit them in lineups. Andrew Benintendi (160 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP) might be a lower part of the order salary saver.
Other tagged players: David Ortiz, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Brock Holt ALDS Game One BvP Champions
Three of today’s teams have batters with multiple HRs against the pitcher they are facing in Game One of their ALDS series. Carlos Santana has three HRs in 46 PAs against Rick Porcello, but most of those when he was pitching for Detroit as Statcast only has exit velocity on two batted balls since last season. The batters with the most recorded batted ball exit velocity (16) and tied for the most HRs (3) is Carlos Beltran facing Marco Estrada. In 35 total PAs, Beltran has an above average 93.5 mph aEV on those 16 recorded batted balls since last season. Not a surprise with both playing in the AL East for most of that span. Two Toronto batters (Encarnacion and Tulowitzki) each have two HRs against Hamels with both of Tulo’s coming in Philadelphia. Tulo also has the highest average exit velocity (96.2 mph) in any of the BvP matchups with more than five batted balls since last season, despite just a .217 career batting average against Hamels. One last interesting note is that Ian Desmond has three recorded batted balls with a 102.7 mph aEV against Marco Estrada, but has struck out in 10 of 18 career PAs against him.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Carlos Santana, Marco Estrada, Ian Desmond, Rick Porcello, Carlos Beltran, Edwin Encarnacion, Cole Hamels Kevin's ALDS Game One Forecast - It's hot and humid in Texas
Kevin has issued his forecast for Game One of the ALDS in two cities. Weather should not affect play at all in Cleveland and while there’s a slight chance of showers in Texas, it might be the heat that plays a part in boosting offense as it has been known to do in Texas. Kevin calls for temperatures that feel as if they’re in the mid-90’s, hotter and more humid than expected even in that area of the country at this time of year. Read the full report on our Weather Page and follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Three of ALDS Game One starters remarkably similar.
There were some interesting choices made by AL teams to start Game One of the division series as you can argue that each team passed over a better pitcher for potentially different reasons. Texas could argue Hamels is better equipped than Darvish to come back on short rest in Game Four if necessary. Cleveland might want to give Kluber an extra day of rest as well, while Boston may value Wins and Toronto ERA over estimators. The interesting thing about all four of these pitchers is that each had a strikeout rate between 20.7% and 23.6% this year and three of them had a walk rate between 8.6% and 9.1%, giving them nearly league average peripherals. The exception was Rick Porcello, who’s 3.6 BB% was second lowest in baseball. All four offenses are fairly potent in hitter friendly parks, but might this be the difference with Cleveland projected for the lowest run total on the board as well (4). Will Porcello be the most owned pitcher tonight? Might this make him the most attractive option on the slate, ahead of Cole Hamels and his slate high 23.6 K%?
Other tagged players: Cole Hamels