DFS Alerts
Justin Turner looks to take advantage of Matt Moore's hard-contact allowed
Matt Moore has been sharp in his last couple of outings, possessing a 27% k-rate and a 2.90 SIERA over that period. His one downfall has been the amount of hard contact that he has given up, yielding an astronomical 48% hard contact percentage. Moore has been able to keep his opponents from elevating the ball (31% flyball percentage), which has led to a middle of the road 1.04 HR/9. If Dodgers like Justin Turner are able to elevate the ball, Moore could surrender a longball or two. Turner has a flyball percentage of 44% over the last 7 days, giving some optimism that he will be able to elevate one of Moore’s pitches out of the park.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Matt Moore
A pair of young Padres face rookie Diamonbacks pitcher, Matt Koch
Matt Koch will be pitching for the Diamondbacks today but his matchup against the Padres may be the only positive going for him today. Over the last two weeks, Koch has the dreaded combination of allowing 38% hard-contact, while letting hitters elevate the ball 58% of the time. With only a 17% strikeout rate over that period, Koch is begging the Padres hitters to put a dinger or two into the stands. The Padres have a couple of hitters, Ryan Schimpf and Alex Dickerson, who are sprinting to the finish line in 2016, both possessing a hard hit percentage north of 55% over the last week. Hunter Renfroe is worth adding to this two-man stack, considering that he has a ridiculously high, off-the-charts 0.684 ISO over the last seven days.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Ryan Schimpf Two-man stack of the day, runner up: Anthony Rizzo and Dexter Fowler
Robert Stephenson has shown he can be vulnerable left-handed batters, possessing an xFIP of 5.61 in limited innings this season versus lefties. While his 3.24 HR/9 is surely to regress back towards zero moving forward this season and next, his 48% flyball percentage allowed to LHBs and 38% hard-contact allowed to LHBs indicate that the trouble with home runs is sure to continue in some capacity. Cubs like Anthony Rizzo and Dexter Fowler make for premier plays today, seeing that they have wRC+ totals versus RHP of 155 and 125, respectively.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Dexter Fowler Two-man stack of the day: Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson
The Blue Jays will be giving it everything they have today since they are trying to stave off the Tigers for the final American League wildcard spot and they will be facing David Price. Price has not been sharp lately, striking out only 16% of the batters he has faced over the last two weeks, contributing to a SIERA of 4.44 over that period. The two-man stack of Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion makes a great deal of sense, considering that both hitters have ISOs over 0.250 versus LHP.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, David Price Jose Abreu is facing a pitcher with zero strikeouts over the last two weeks
Jose Berrios has been surviving off of soft-contact over his last few outings, striking out 0% of batters, but limiting hard contact to 25% of at-bats that have ended in hard contact. Berrios has been worse against RHBs, holding an xFIP of 6.04 on the season versus RHBs. Jose Abreu will be looking to finish the season on a positive note, and he will be in a good position to do so today versus Berrios. Abreu has a wRC+ total of 116 on the season versus RHP, offering a solid 17% strikeout this season in at-bats versus righties.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jose Berrios Kevin Roth's final regular season MLB weather report highlights light rain around the league
Roth’s weather report points to four locations with YELLOW/GREEN ratings and four locations with GREEN/YELLOW ratings. None of the games look to be in jeopardy, but check out Roth’s full report for details.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Only a couple of days left to enjoy the "Coors Field Bump"
DFS players only have a couple of days left to target hitters at Coors Field. Tonight, the Brewers hitters will be the beneficiaries of visiting Colorado, where they will be facing a pitcher who has an xFIP over 4.90 against both LHBs and RHBs. The Brewers have a couple of hitters who have been really flexing their muscles over the last week, both possessing ISOs over 0.330. Chris Carter and Jonathan Villar have been smoking the ball over the last week, but Villar’s ISO is out of this world, sitting at a smoldering 0.522. Look to the Brew-crews leadoff man for some extreme power, combined with the potential of a stolen base or two.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Chris Carter, Jeff Hoffman The Rays were not the "stack of the day" for one reason, they are probably already making vacation plans
The Rays could very easily qualify as the best team to stack today, considering they are facing off against Colby Lewis in Texas. Colby Lewis is one spot behind Luis Severino for the worst SIERA in the majors over the last couple of weeks, sitting at a pitiful 7.50. While Lewis has been known to defy his peripheral statistics at times, his numbers are even worse than usual over the last fourteen days. A 56% flyball percentage, coupled with an 11% k-rate and a 30% hard-hit rate should lead to trouble. Lewis does not pick favorites, seeing that he has an identical 5.11 xFIP versus both LHBs and RHBs. The Rays are by no means hitting the ball well lately, so we will have to make an arbitrary hard-hit cutoff of 25% over the last week. Using this cutoff, we can stack up Mikie Mahtook, Brad Miller, Logan Forsythe, and Evan Longoria, and then kick up our feet and hope for good things to happen.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Brad Miller, Logan Forsythe, Mikie Mahtook, Colby Lewis Eduardo Rodriguez has the best SIERA of any active starting pitcher over the last 2 weeks, but he faces a Blue Jays team full of RHBs
Over the last 2 weeks, E-Rod has the best SIERA of any active starting pitcher in the MLB. Over that period, Rodriguez held a silly-good 2.04 SIERA with a ridiculous 44% k-rate. His hard contact is worrisome, standing at 40% which is extremely high. I know you have heard this story before, but it appears this is a spot where using E-Rod in tournaments may be as logical of a strategy as stacking Blue Jays. Many of Rodriguez’s numbers were accrued early in the season when he was struggling badly, but a 48% fly ball percentage allowed to RHBs puts him at risk for the longball. Surprisingly, only two Jays have wRC+ totals north of 135 versus LHP, so start any Jays stacks with Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion. Both hitters have ISOs over 0.250 and will look to take advantage of Rodriguez’s flyball tendencies.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Eduardo Rodriguez Stack of the Day: Detroit Tigers
Aaron Blair can be added to the long list of pitchers worth targeting today, seeing that he holds a bloated 6.02 SIERA over the last 14 days and will face a team playing for a playoff birth. Blairs 9 % k-rate over the last two weeks is about par for the season for Blair, especially in at-bats against LHBs. His 15% k-rate against RHBs is not much better, putting all of the Tigers in play today. If we targeted only Tigers hitters who have a wRC+ total north of 270 in the last week, we could still play Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, and Justin Upton, who will be batting 1st, 3rd, and 5th, respectively. The Tigers have much more to lose than the Braves and Blair is a well below-average starting pitcher.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, Aaron Blair The Indians make a viable stack, even at Kauffman Stadium
Edison Volquez is not finishing the season strong, having a rough go in his last few outings. Most pitchers with a k-rate south of 14% are going to struggle, and pitchers with a 35% hard contact allowed percentage tend to get shelled. Volquez’s 1.93 HR/9 illustrates the consequences of this mixture of contact and hard contact leading to the longball. The Indians do not have much to play for since the Rangers locked up home-field advantage on Friday night, but the LHBs in the lineup like Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, and Coco Crisp are very much in play. The only downside is that the game will be played in Kansas City, a park with a 0,91 rating for left-handed home run power on the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors tool. While this is a below average park rating, it is not the 0.79 rating that right-handers experience in the cavernous Kauffman Stadium. Look to the Indians for a viable stack that some may avoid because of where it will be played.
Other tagged players: Jason Kipnis, Coco Crisp, Edinson Volquez Contrarian pitching option for the afternoon slate: Wei-Yin Chen
Wei-Yin Chen has been surprisingly effective since rejoining the Marlins and has a more than respectable line over the last couple of weeks. Chen holds a 3.39 SIERA over that period, putting him just behind Cole Hamels. Chen’s 19% k rate is average, but his 28% hard contact allowed stands out as a reason for his recent success. If Chen can continue to induce less than hard contact, he could post a respectable outing today versus a team that has already clinched their division and has not shot at getting home-field advantage in their respective league.
As reported by: FanGraphs Be aware of Ty Blach’s limited innings-pitched in recent outings
Ty Blach had some appeal in his last start, and he showed why he could be useful, striking out a batter per inning. However, he only lasted 3 innings and was pulled after only 76 pitches. Be aware of the high probability that Blach does not go deep in the game, meaning avoid using him a SP, and when choosing Dodgers bats, consider that they may face the Giants bullpen for 2/3 of the game today.
As reported by: ESPN Mark Trumbo has one of the best matchups of the day
Luis Severino has been the 2nd worst starter over the last 14 days according to SIERA. Severino is sitting on a 8.65 SIERA over that period, striking out only 13% of batters and allowing opponents to elevate the ball in 67% of at-bats that have ended in contact. We know that the Orioles will be giving it their best shot since they are in the middle of a wildcard race, so targeting Orioles RHBs (Severino has a 4.25 xFIP vs. RHBs) today is a sound strategy. Mark Trumbo’s batted-ball profile looks prime for production, seeing that over the last week, Trumbo has a 24% k rate, a 53% hard contact rate on at-bats that ended in contact, and a flyball percentage of 41%. Trumbo looks to take advantage of a struggling pitcher on a team that has nothing to play for today, so start Trumbo with confidence.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Luis Severino Targeting hard contact: Matt Carpenter
Sometimes the best plays are the obvious plays. Chad Kuhl will be pitching for the Pirates today and has been giving up a tremendous amount of hard contact over the last two weeks, surrendering hard contact in 43% of at-bats that have ended in contact. Considering that Kuhl has a 4.98 xFIP versus LHBs this year, targeting lefties against the Pirates right-hander should be a sound strategy. Matt Carpenter is not only the Cardinals best left-handed bat, but he also has a great batted-ball profile over the last week. Matt is hitting the ball hard in 38% of at-bats ending in contact, striking out less than 19% of the time, and elevating the ball in 44% of at-bats where he put the ball in play. Starting cash game lineups and GPP lineups with the Cardinals second baseman is a viable strategy today.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Chad Kuhl