DFS Alerts
Derrick Jones Jr. (knee) will play Friday
Jones Jr. was originally ruled out then upgraded to questionable, and he’s now been cleared to play in Friday’s matchup against the Indiana Pacers despite dealing with a bruised right knee. Miami is without Goran Dragic and Dwyane Wade, who remains away from the team dealing with a personal matter, so Wayne Ellington should remain in the starting lineup following a phenomenal fantasy performance in 37 minutes of action in Wednesday’s win. Ellington will still be in play for tournaments on tonight’s slate given his cheap price tag, but Tyler Johnson might be the more contrarian option off the bench, and he owns a 23.9% usage rate (+5.5%) while averaging 1.16 DraftKings and 1.21 FanDuel points per minute with Dragic and Wade off the court this season.
As reported by: Ira Winderman via Twitter
Paul Millsap (ankle) listed as available to play Friday
Millsap has officially been upgraded from probable and will be available to play in Friday’s matchup against the Brooklyn Nets despite dealing with a sore left ankle. Millsap has played more than 25 minutes in just one of the last four games, which limits his ceiling and makes him a much less appealing option in daily fantasy formats. Most of this playing time has been reallotted to Juan Hernangomez, who’s averaged 25.5 minutes over the same time span, which makes him an intriguing punt option in tournaments at his inexpensive price tag. Millsap has really fallen victim to the Nuggets young core taking another step forward this season, as his usage rate has dipped to 21.7% despite still averaging 1.01 DraftKings and 1.05 FanDuel points per minute on the year.
As reported by: NBA Official Injury Report Victor Oladipo (knee) listed questionable Friday
Oladipo has been listed as questionable on the most recent version of the Pacers’ injury report for Friday’s matchup against the Miami Heat due to a bruised left knee. The Pacers are typically pretty liberal with their injury reporting, so Oladipo may have just been added as a precaution since his status for tonight’s contest hadn’t been a concern following shootaround this morning. Oladipo has started every game this season and is the only Pacer that is averaging more than 30 minutes per game, atoning for the depth of head coach Nate McMillan’s rotation in the early going. As expected, Oladipo leads the team with a 33.8% usage rate and is averaging 1.31 DraftKings and 1.30 FanFuel points per minute through 12 games, which would lead a significant void in the starting unit if he’s unable to suit up.
As reported by: NBA Official Injury Report Don't Overlook the Other Side of this Popular Game Tonight
Miami players should be popular tonight with the Heat playing shorthanded, but we shouldn’t overlook the fact that Indiana is favored in that game despite playing on the road. Miami has a reputation as a defense we want to avoid after ranking 4th in the league in opponent points allowed last season, but so far this year they are middle-of-the-pack ranking 16th. Domantas Sabonis is a player to look at with the bench big man averaging a career-high 14.1 points per game. Victor Oladipo should also be a consideration as the Pacers leading scorer also leads the team in assists and steals.
Other tagged players: Domantas Sabonis
Two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA meet tonight
Two of the worst defensive teams in the league matchup tonight when Minnesota faces the Kings in Sacramento. Minnesota ranks 26th in allowing 117.4 points per game to opponents, and Sacramento is even worse, ranking 27th and allowing 118.8 points per game. This should mean good news, particularly for the wings in this fast-paced game. Derrick Rose has been back in MVP form for the Timberwolves filling in for Jeff Teague, scoring 102 points in the three games he has started this season. For Sacramento, Buddy Hield and De’Aaron Fox are both averaging career highs in scoring this season, with Hield averaging 20.1 points per game (up from 13.5 last season) and Fox averaging 18.7 points per game (up from 11.6 last year).
Other tagged players: Derrick Rose, De'Aaron Fox Jimmy Butler uncertain to play Friday
Head coach Tom Thibodeau disclosed to reporters prior to Friday’s shootaround that he is unsure if Butler will play in tonight’s matchup against the Sacramento Kings, but he did say that he’ll have a better understanding of the situation following shootaround. It seems like Butler is planning to be available, but if he sits out for rest, Josh Okogie would draw the start at the shooting guard spot alongside Derrick Rose in the backcourt. Okogie’s playing time has come back down to earth with Butler, Derrick Rose, and Andrew Wiggins all active the past two games, but he had typically been logging minutes in the upper-20s with one or two of them sidelined. Rose and Karl-Anthony Towns have easily been the main beneficiaries with Butler and Jeff Teague off the court this season, as each own at least a +7.8% usage rate differential and have recorded a minimum of +0.33 fantasy points per minute over their season averages in this scenario as well.
As reported by: Chris Hine via Twitter Goran Dragic (knee) out Friday
Dragic has officially been downgraded from questionable and won’t play in Friday’s matchup against the Indiana Pacers due to a sore right knee that’s now kept him sidelined for two consecutive games. Miami is also without Derrick Jones Jr. and Dwyane Wade, who remains away from the team dealing with a personal matter, so Wayne Ellington should remain in the starting lineup following a phenomenal fantasy performance in 37 minutes of action in Wednesday’s win. Ellington will still be in play for tournaments on tonight’s slate given his cheap price tag, but Tyler Johnson might be the more contrarian option off the bench, and he owns a 23.9% usage rate (+5.5%) while averaging 1.16 DraftKings and 1.21 FanDuel points per minute with Dragic and Wade off the court this season.
As reported by: Tim Reynolds via Twitter Mistake Free, High Effective Field Goal Percentage
Four games ago Mike Malone mentioned he wanted to get Hernangomez more run and he’s done exactly that as the Nuggets small forward has averaged just south of 26 minutes over the last four contests. Hernangomez isn’t a high usage player but he’s largely mistake free (4.8% turnover rate), is a strong offensive rebounder (7.2%) and has made the most of his shot attempts with an effective field goal percentage of 65.5%. There’s a chance that minutes could end up being fleeting for Hernangomez but as long as he continues to see mid-20 minutes of run he makes for a strong value option at his cheap price tag.
Dynamic Pricing
Color me surprised when I saw Terry Rozier’s price tag for Friday’s slate. Kyrie Iriving announced last week that he would miss tonight’s game due to his grandfather’s memorial service and the sites responded accordingly by raising Rozier’s price for Friday’s matchup against the Jazz. I still don’t think DraftKings was aggressive enough as Rozier still stands out as one of the better value options of the night for $4,900. On FanDuel, Rozier is somehow $200 more than Derrick Rose so you’re likely only grabbing exposure to the Boston point guard if you’re looking to play two mid-to-low tier options.
Injury Dependent Long Range Threat
// UPDATE: All three of Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic and Derrick Jones have been declared out for Friday’s game. Fire up Miami wing players as some of the best salary relief options on the slate. // Prior to Wednesday’s game against the Spurs where Wayne Ellington logged 37 minutes, the veteran shooting guard had seen 12 minutes of court time all season. Ellington could be in line for extended run again on Friday night against the Pacers with Dwyane Wade already declared out and Goran Dragic questionable. The long range threat is a low usage option who provides most of his value from three point land but he’s a viable value target if the Heat are down two guards once again.
NBA Injury Rundown - Friday, 11/9
Philadelphia 76ers – Mike Muscala (Out)
Orlando Magic – Jonathan Isaac (Out)
Miami Heat – Dwyane Wade (Out), Derrick Jones Jr. (Out), Goran Dragic (Questionable)
Brooklyn Nets – DeMarre Carroll (Probable)
Denver Nuggets – Paul Millsap (Probable)
Boston Celtics – Kyrie Irving (Out)
Minnesota Timberwolves – Jeff Teague (Out)
Sacramento Kings – Bogdan Bogdanovic (Out)
Tobias Harris (illness) will play Thursday
Harris didn’t participate in shootaround Thursday morning, but he’s officially been cleared to play in tonight’s matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers despite battling an illness. The Clippers are already without Avery Bradley and Luc Mbah a Moute, so Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is poised to make a second consecutive start at the shooting guard spot alongside Patrick Beverley in the backcourt, and he was serviceable from a fantasy perspective in 24 minutes of action in Monday’s win. He remains cheap across the industry, so he should be a relatively popular option given his ability to rack up peripheral statistics despite a low 14.9% usage rate on the offensive end of the floor. Lou Williams also saw a slight bump in minutes sans Bradley, and he leads the Clippers by a wide margin with a 35.6% usage rate and is averaging 1.35 DraftKings and 1.29 FanDuel points per minute with him off the court this season.
As reported by: Andrew Greif via Twitter Jordan Bell will start for Draymond Green (toe) on Thursday
Head coach Steve Kerr confirmed following Wednesday’s practice that Draymond Green would not play in Thursday’s matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks due to a sprained right toe, while Shaun Livingston remains sidelined with a nagging foot injury. Kerr did confirm that there is no long-term concern with Green’s toe ailment and that Jordan Bell should be expected to pick up more playing time in his absence. In fact, Bell will start at power forward alongside Damian Jones and Kevin Durant in the frontcourt after he replaced Green in the second half of Monday’s win and logged 21 minutes. Stephen Curry has been the clear beneficiary with Green off the court, as he’s recorded an absurd 44.2% usage rate while averaging 1.75 DraftKings and 1.64 FanDuel points per minute in a 133.9 minutes sample size this season.
As reported by: Connor Letourneau via Twitter TJ Warren back in the starting lineup tonight
TJ Warren will start tonight for the Suns. He played on Tuesday but only saw minutes in the mid-teens while Ryan Anderson drew a start at PF. Warren is a potential mid-range GPP target, but none of the Suns are particularly safe in a match-up with the Celtics. Devin Booker figures to chuck it close to 20 times and Ayton usually clears 30 minutes even in blowouts, so those two are on the radar. Isaiah Canaan is also logging heavy minutes in the backcourt and while his per-minute upside isn’t notable, his court time keeps him on the DFS radar.
Eric Gordon (groin) out Thursday
Gordon has officially been downgraded from questionable and won’t play in Thursday’s matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder due to a strained right adductor that has now kept him sidelined for three consecutive games. However, head coach Mike D’Antoni did confirm with reporters that Gordon is getting close and that he doesn’t expect him to miss too much more time. In his absence, Gerald Green should theoretically benefit from increased playing time off the bench, but he’s averaged just 17.5 minutes the last two games and has given way to Gary Clark in the rotation several times. Green does have a 23.4% usage rate with Gordon off the court this season, so he could be worth a flier in tournaments on an abbreviated four-game slate.
As reported by: Craig Ackerman via Twitter