DFS Alerts
Increased Minutes Tonight
Damian Lillard has been ruled out with a hamstring injury tonight, and he’s averaging 37.1 minutes per game this season. With Lillard out, Shabazz Napier should slide into the starting lineup, and he’s looking at increased minutes tonight. Napier has a 24.8% usage rate, and he’s averaging .85 fantasy points per minute without Lillard on the floor this season. The minutes won’t all go to Napier, but I like his chances to play 30+ minutes tonight. Denver is a bottom five team against point guards in DvP and defensive efficiency.
J.R. Smith (knee) ruled out Thursday; Channing Frye will start in his place
Smith is a late addition to the Cleveland Cavaliers’ injury report and has been ruled out for tonight’s game against the Chicago Bulls due to a sore left knee, despite never receiving an injury designation at any point throughout the day. In his absence, Channing Frye will be inserted into the starting lineup, as head coach Tyronn Lue has decided to utilize a big starting five with Jae Crowder sliding over to the “shooting guard” spot. Even though Frye has been given the starting nod, it doesn’t mean that he should be expected to just step directly into Smith’s typical minute allotment and Dwyane Wade, Jeff Green, and Kyle Korver will likely be relied upon to absorb some additional playing time off the bench as well. With Smith off the court this season, LeBron James leads the Cavaliers with a 33.3% usage rate and actually sees his production increase to 1.64 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 1.60 on FanDuel in this scenario.
As reported by: Jason Lloyd via Twitter Other tagged players: Channing Frye
Kristaps Pozingis (sore knee) will play Thursday
Porzingis has been cleared to play and will suit up for tonight’s game against the Boston Celtics after previously being listed as questionable on the New York Knicks’ injury report with a sore left knee. Porzingis won’t be subject to a minute restriction for Thursday’s contest and his return to the starting lineup will displace Michael Beasley from the starting power forward spot and averaged 34 minutes per game in his two spot starts, easily exceeding salary-based expectations on both occasions. The Knicks are still without Tim Hardaway Jr. so Lance Thomas will continue to start at small forward but continues to be unproductive in a mid-20s role as a starter. With Hardaway Jr. off the court this season, Porzingis continues to lead the Knicks by a wide margin with a 37.7% usage rate and has averaged 1.29 fantasy points per minute in this scenario.
As reported by: the New York Knicks via Twitter Joel Embiid (back) now probable Thursday; Trevor Booker (illness) expected to play
Embiid has been upgraded to probable on the Philadelphia 76ers’ injury report for tonight’s game against the Toronto Raptors after previously being listed as questionable with back tightness that has already forced him to be sidelined two consecutive games. Meanwhile, Trevor Booker is expected to play, according to head coach Brett Brown, following his prior questionable designation due to gastroenteritis, and J.J. Redick was ruled out in advance with right hamstring tightness and is preemptively considered doubtful for Saturday’s contest. Despite the initial questionable designation, Embiid appears on track to play based on comments to reporters from several teammates stating that “he looks good” and “he’ll probably play” following shootaround. With Redick unavailable, Jerryd Bayless will draw the start at the shooting guard spot alongside Ben Simmons in the backcourt, though in the previous game Redick was sidelined T.J. McConnell was the more productive guard and logged nearly 29 minutes off the bench. The starters that stand to benefit the most from Redick’s absence are Simmons and Robert Covington, as each own at least a +2.8% usage rate differential with Redick off the court this season, and Covington has seen his production increase to 1.12 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 1.08 on FanDuel in this scenario.
As reported by: Jessica Camerato via Twitter Pau Gasol (groin) and Danny Green (groin) questionable Thursday; Manu Ginobili (rest) ruled out
Gasol and Green have both officially been listed as questionable on the San Antonio Spurs’ injury report for tonight’s game against the Utah Jazz due to groin tightness, while Manu Ginobili has officially been ruled out for rest purposes on the second night of a back-to-back set after previously being listed as questionable on the latest version of the Spurs’ game notes. Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker will make their returns from a one-game absence due to rest and are expected to resume their normal roles in the starting lineup, but Leonard will remain on a minute restriction and has yet to play more than 16 minutes in any game this season. That said, the Spurs will have some reinforcements on the wing if Green is eventually ruled out, as Kyle Anderson logged 24 minutes off the bench in his first game back following an eight-game injury stint with a knee injury. There are several different ways that head coach Gregg Popovich can go with his starting lineup if both Green and Gasol are unavailable, but the likeliest candidates to start would be Bryn Forbes and Rudy Gay, a move that would slide LaMarcus Aldridge over to the center spot and make senses against the Jazz’ new-look, small-ball starting lineup sans Rudy Gobert.
As reported by: Paul Garcia via Twitter Other tagged players: Danny Green, Manu Ginobili Jaylen Brown (Achilles) questionable Thursday; Shane Larkin (knee) ruled out
Brown has been added to the Boston Celtics’ injury report and is listed as questionable for tonight’s game against the New York Knicks due to left Achilles soreness, while Shane Larkin has been ruled out with left knee soreness and joins Marcus Morris among the Celtics’ injury-related inactives. Additionally, Jayson Tatum’s exclusion from the injury report indicates that he is fine and will be good to go after suffering a dislocated right pinky in Wednesday’s loss. Should Brown be ruled out, Marcus Smart would likely enter the starting lineup at the shooting guard spot and has averaged just over 33 minutes per game in the previous six starts, while Terry Rozier would step into a larger role off the bench, especially with Larkin already deemed unavailable. That said, the projected starters that stand to benefit the most from Brown’s potential absence are Smart and Al Horford, as each own at least a +2.5% usage rate differential with Brown and Morris off the court while Horford leads the team with 1.12 fantasy points per minute in this scenario.
As reported by: the Boston Celtics via Twitter Other tagged players: Shane Larkin Donovan Mitchell (great toe contusion) will be a game-time decision Thursday
Mitchell has yet to have his status officially updated on the Utah Jazz’ injury report for tonight’s game against the San Antonio Spurs, but he is considered a game-time decision due to a right great toe contusion that has already forced him to miss one game, while Raul Neto’s status remains up in the air, as well, but has been sidelined for five straight games with a concussion, suggesting he’s likelier to be out than be available to play. Despite the massive dud the entire Jazz team put up on Wednesday night, moving forward, Derrick Favors figures to greatly benefit from his move to the center spot with Rudy Gobert sidelined for at least the next month with a sprained PCL, and he averaged 30 minutes per game during Gobert’s extended absence earlier in the season, while Joe Johnson has taken over at one of the starting forward positions alongside Favors and Joe Ingles in the frontcourt. As for Mitchell’s possible unavailability, Rodney Hood would likely draw the start at the shooting guard spot and Alec Burks should act as the primary guard off the bench for at least one additional game. With Mitchell, Gobert, and Neto off the court this season, Hood, Favors, and Burks all own at least a +3.4% usage rate differential while Hood also sees his production spike to 1.09 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 1.00 on FanDuel in this scenario.
As reported by: Tony Jones via Twitter Risk/Reward Upside
The Jazz got humiliated against the Thunder last night, but the good news is that none of the starters played more than 28 minutes. Derrick Favors played through a questionable tag and should be fine going forward. With Rudy Gobert out and Donovan Mitchell possibly out, they need guys like Derrick Favors to step up. The Spurs are not an ideal matchup, but the price is right, the opportunity will be there, and the ownership should be relatively low. I’ll take a shot on that in GPP formats.
Tough Matchup Should Keep Ownership Down
T.J. McConnell hasn’t been playing his best basketball of late, but he should be the biggest beneficiary of J.J. Redick’s absence tonight. Redick is averaging close to 35 minutes per game, so there is a good chance McConnell sees a significant boost in playing time. His matchup against the Raptors isn’t ideal, but McConnell can do a little bit of everything on the floor.
Chris Paul (adductor) ruled out for Friday; Clint Capela (heel) doubtful
Paul has been ruled out and won’t play in tomorrow’s game against the Los Angeles Clippers due to a strained left adductor he sustained during Thursday’s loss, while Clint Capela has been listed as doubtful on the Houston Rockets’ injury report with a left heel contusion that has already forced him to miss two of the last three games. In Paul’s absence, Eric Gordon will be inserted into the starting lineup at shooting guard, sliding James Harden over to the point guard spot, and will immediately become an elite option on Friday’s slate, barring a significant price increase, given his reasonable expectation of mid-30s minutes as a starter. Nene drew the start at center in Wednesday’s loss and played a season-high 26 minutes, but he was eventually replaced by P.J. Tucker to begin the second half, meaning either are candidates to start in Capela’s place moving forward. With Paul, Capela, and Luc Mbah a Moute off the court this season, James Harden owns a +6.1% usage rate differential and continues to lead the Rockets with a massive 44.2% usage rate in this scenario.
As reported by: Jonathan Feigen via Twitter Other tagged players: Clint Capela Don't Lose the Faith
Justin Holiday was one of my favorite plays on the board last night. While he didn’t have a terrible game, he only played 28 minutes thanks to a blowout. In his two previous games, he played 37 and 38 minutes. If he’s playing well tonight against the Cavaliers, he has 36-38 minute upside. He’s one of my favorite point-per-dollar targets at any position.
Still Out Playing The Starter
Canaan shot the ball terrible last night, but still played more minutes than Tyler Ulis and Mike James. I think a lot of people overlook him because he only played 22 minutes last night, but I think it’s an excellent spot to go right back to the well. The Suns were down an average of 13 points against the Clippers last night, and I don’t think that’s the case for them against Memphis tonight. It’s a back-to-back for both teams, and Phoenix is a lot younger than the Memphis team. Canaan has double-digit shot attempts in two of his three games with the Suns, and he’s really filling the stat sheet. He still had 19 fantasy points in a game he shot less than 20% from the field last night.
Sneaky Spot for a Slow-Paced Team
Even though the Grizzlies are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, they have by far the best matchup on the board. Their implied total is 5.2 points above their season average, so we can give a boost to their offense as a whole. Marc Gasol should feast on a Suns’ frontcourt that is ranked 18th in efficiency and 16th in DvP against centers this season.
Is It Really This Bad
We don’t have a lot of value on the 5-game slate tonight, and I’m really looking at Bayless as a value option. With Redick already ruled out for tonight, Bayless should benefit the most from this injury. He played 17 of his 26 minutes when Redick left the game against the Kings on Tuesday. He’s looking at 26-30 minutes against the Raptors tonight, and has the minute floor to be in play for GPPs. Bayless isn’t a high upside/high usage player, but he could get you 5-6x at this price tonight.
C.J. Miles (dental procedure) ruled out Thursday; Lucas Nogueira (calf) remains out
Miles has been ruled out and won’t play in tonight’s game against the Philadelphia 76ers due to a dental procedure that has now forced him to miss two consecutive games, while Lucas Nogueira remains sidelined with a torn right calf muscle and is still without a timetable for return. Miles has really settled into a consistent 16-20 minute role off the Toronto Raptors’ bench, and his absence should continue to open up additional minutes on the wing for players like Norman Powell and Fred VanVleet, though the playing time increase has been nominal, at best, making both guards tough sells for daily fantasy formats on Thursday’s slate.
As reported by: Blake Murphy via Twitter Other tagged players: Lucas Nogueira