DFS Alerts
Upside at Low Ownership
Anytime we can get Antetokounmpo with low ownership, it has to at least be considered. I understand that the matchup isn’t great against a slower-paced Memphis team, but Giannis simply is everything on this Milwaukee offense. He has triple-double type upside every time he takes the court, and the GPP potential is there even in a daunting matchup. Don’t hesitate to fire him up, especially if our ownership projections have him low today.
No Gobert? No Problem!
Derrick Favors is going to be the biggest beneficiary of the Rudy Gobert injury, as he played 35 minutes and put up 24 points and 12 rebounds the other night for the Jazz. He is going to be very busy in the middle, and his price has not yet adjusted for his new role. He is arguably the best value on the board for tonight’s entire slate.
Reaching His Ceiling?
If you take a look at the Court IQ for the Clippers with Beverley, Teodosic, and Gallinari off the floor, you see two clear beneficiaries. Both Lou Williams and Blake Griffin have massive usage rates with those guys off the floor, with Griffin carrying a 36% usage rate that is 5% above his average with them on the floor. Griffin took a whopping 27 shot attempts in the last game against the Pelicans, and I would expect more of the same tonight against the Sixers. Lock him in as one of the top overall plays on the board.
Injury-Induced Upside
If you take a look at the Court IQ for the Clippers with Beverley, Teodosic, and Gallinari off the floor, you see two clear beneficiaries. Both Lou Williams and Blake Griffin have massive usage rates with those guys off the floor, though Williams’ usage isn’t much different than when they are on the floor. The primary draw for Williams is that more minutes will be available to him as the team’s sixth man. He has logged 39 and 36 minutes over the last two games, and he is one of my favorite plays of the night.
Tony Allen (knee inflammation) will remain out Monday
Allen has been ruled out and won’t play in tomorrow’s game against the Atlanta Hawks after previously being removed from the New Orleans’ Pelicans injury report with left knee inflammation that has now forced him to miss two consecutive games. Somewhat surprisingly, Cheick Diallo entered the Pelicans rotation in Allen’s absence and saw 19 minutes off the bench, though it’s too early to tell whether that was a purely matchup-based decision by head coach Alvin Gentry or a trend going forward with Allen sidelined. E’Twaun Moore could also see some extended run over his normal minute workloads, but, all in all, this news does not do much to move the needle of anyone in the Pelicans rotation in terms of daily fantasy production.
As reported by: Pelicans PR via Twitter
Stanley Johnson (hip) and Jon Leuer (ankle) ruled out Sunday
Johnson has officially been ruled out and won’t play in tonight’s game against the Miami Heat after previously being listed as doubtful on the Detroit Pistons’ injury report with a sore right hip flexor that has now forced him to miss three consecutive games, while Jon Leuer has also been deemed unavailable with a sprained left ankle that has now kept him sidelined for five straight games. Anthony Tolliver has ended up being a secondary beneficiary of Johnson’s playing time during the last three games, but Reggie Bullock will start a small forward for the third time in as many games and has averaged 31 minutes of action in his previous two spot starts. That said, head coach Stan Van Gundy doesn’t exactly have a consistent, set rotation, making it difficult to really pinpoint which ancillary wing player will receive the starters’ minutes on a night-to-night basis. In Leuer’s absence, Eric Moreland has served as the backup center behind Andre Drummond but remains out of consideration in daily fantasy formats with Drummond soaking up such a large majority of the center minutes in the Pistons frontcourt rotation.
As reported by: James Edwards III via Twitter Other tagged players: Jon Leuer Gary Harris (sore shoulder) questionable for Monday
Harris has officially been listed as questionable on the Denver Nuggets’ injury report for tomorrow’s game against the Orlando Magic with a sore right shoulder that has already forced him to miss one game. Harris’ production has been a bit more sporadic than we’ve been used to in past seasons with the addition of Paul Millsap to the Denver starting lineup, but if he is ruled out, there would be a plethora of minutes that open up for Will Barton and Malik Beasley, and Barton will likely draw the start at shooting guard for the second time in as many games. The increased utilization of a two-point-guard lineup with Jamal Murray and Emmanuel Mudiay enabled Murray to spend more time off the ball on Saturday, leading to a career-best performance. Regardless of plays in the Nuggets’ backcourt, Murray has been the clear beneficiary with Harris off the court this season and owns a +6.5% usage rate differential in that scenario, while leading the team with a 30.9% usage rate and averaging more than a fantasy point point per minute, making him an intriguing tournament option once again on Monday’s slate if Harris is unavailable.
As reported by: Gina Mizell via Twitter Kyrie Irving (face) officially ruled out Sunday; Al Horford (concussion) will play
Irving has officially been ruled out and won’t play in tonight’s game against the Toronto Raptors after previously being listed as doubtful on Boston Celtics’ injury report with a minor facial fracture he sustained early on in Friday’s contest. Irving escaped a possible concussion stemming from the incident but will be fitted for a mask in order to play through the fracture for the next few weeks. Meanwhile, Al Horford will play, as expected, and will make his return following a two-game absence due to a concussion. In Irving’s absence, Marcus Smart started the second half of Friday’s game and will draw the start at point guard this afternoon, though he was a lock for big minutes regardless of starting status. Assuming Horford is a full go and not limited in any way, he is the clear beneficiary of Irving’s unavailability, as he owns a monstrous +11.2% usage rate differential with Irving off the court this season and averages roughly 1.15 fantasy points per minute, putting him in a prime position to pay off his salary across the industry on Sunday’s slate.
As reported by: Sean Grande via Twitter Other tagged players: Al Horford D'Angelo Russell (left knee) likely to miss several games
Russell sustained a left knee injury during Saturday’s loss to the Utah Jazz and is likely to miss several games, as reported by Adrian Wojnarowski and his sources. The injury is currently being diagnosed as just a contusion but Russell is scheduled to undergo further evaluation in the coming days. Unfortunately, the fact that the Brooklyn Nets only have three games scheduled in the next 10 days and this news is being reported now, could indicate that the team is concerned that Russell’s injury could be more serious than they are letting on at this time. Spencer Dinwiddie should take over as the starting point guard for the duration of Russell’s absence but missed Friday’s contest with right hamstring tightness. With Russell off the court this season, several Nets players have seen a sizable increase in their usage rate given his ball-dominant play style, but DeMarre Carroll stands out the most from a usage and production standpoint, as the forward owns a +4.7% usage rate differential while averaging a lofty 1.35 fantasy points per minute.
As reported by: Adrian Wojnarowski via Twitter Don't Overlook this Celtic
Al Horford’s usage rate sits just under 20% with Kyrie Irving on the court, but with Irving out, that mark balloons to over 32%, and the fantasy point per minute production goes right along with it. With Irving out, Horford becomes the main facilitator of the offense, and the ball should run through him much more often. The matchup against Toronto could be better, but Horford is priced like Irving is playing, and he’s sure to go overlooked given he’s rarely a popular play and he’s returning from missing two games with a concussion.
Fade the Chalk in Boston
With Kyrie Irving out, many players will gravitate toward Marcus Smart. The fact of the matter is that Smart and Terry Rozier will likely see a similar workload, and have posted similar usage rates and fantasy point production numbers both with and without Kyrie Irving sharing the court with them. Rozier is playing better right now, and he’s cheaper, so he gets the nod from me in cash games.
Expanded Role Expected For This Guard
With Kyrie Irving doubtful on Sunday due to a facial fracture caused by Aron Baynes’ elbow, Marcus Smart is expected to be thrust into the starting lineup. Smart has really struggled this season, as he has a .291 field goal % through 11 games. Despite his struggles, he should have an expanded role until Kyrie returns. In his last game, he took a season high 16 shots, although he only made 3 of them. We’re banking on minutes somewhere in the 30s and just hoping his shot will fall.
Lock In This Shooting Guard
Harden silenced his critics on Saturday night when he went off for 38 points and 8 assists in a dominant win against the Memphis Grizzlies. Harden will likely be chalky on this short slate, but it doesn’t matter to me as Harden is the first guy I would jam into my lineup. The Pacers rank 10th in pace and 20th in defensive efficiency, which are all things that work in Harden’s favor.
Spencer Dinwiddie (hamstring) ruled out Saturday
Dinwiddie has been ruled out and won’t play in tonight’s game against the Utah Jazz after previously being listed as questionable on the Brooklyn Nets’ injury report with right hamstring tightness, while both Trevor Booker and Tyler Zeller are both good to go, as expected. The Nets are now nearing full strength in the frontcourt with just Jarrett Allen sidelined currently with a strained left foot, meaning that Zeller will likely split the backup center minutes with Quincy Acy and Booker will resume his normal role as the backup power forward. Their presence in the rotation does lower the already limited minute ceiling of a player like Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, making it tough to pay his elevated price tag, even in tournaments. With Dinwiddie officially unable to suit up, Isaiah Whitehead or Sean Kilpatrick would likely take on a larger role in the backcourt rotation, while D’Angelo Russell could be extended a slightly longer leash in the playing time department as well.
As reported by: the Brooklyn Nets via Twitter Gary Harris (shoulder) ruled out Saturday; Will Barton will start in his place
Harris has officially been ruled out and won’t play in tonight’s game against the Orlando Magic after previously being listed as questionable on the Denver Nuggets’ injury report with a sore shoulder. In his absence, Will Barton will draw the start at the shooting guard spot and should some extra playing time over the normal 30 minutes or so he typically sees per game. Meanwhile, Juan Hernangomez is available to play after he was upgraded to questionable from out as he recovers from a bout of mononucleosis. Harris’ production has been a bit more sporadic than we’ve been used to in past seasons with the addition of Paul Millsap to the Denver starting lineup, and there is now a plethora of minutes that open up for Barton and Malik Beasley, even if the Nuggets roll with a backcourt of Emmanuel Mudiay and Jamal Murray more often than normal. Regardless of the starters in the Nuggets’ backcourt, Murray has been the clear beneficiary with Harris off the court this season and owns a +4.2% usage rate differential in that scenario, while leading the team with a 27.5% usage rate and averaging more than a fantasy point point per minute, making him an intriguing tournament option on Saturday’s slate now that Harris is officially unavailable.