DFS Alerts

Donte Moncrief active Sunday

It’s his first game back since Week 2. He should cut into the target shares of both T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle, although it’s possible he’s somewhat limited today. He’ll face a tough pass defense; Football Outsiders ranks Kansas City 9th in pass DVOA.

QB Props: Derek Carr an interesting pivot off Jameis Winston

The usual suspects lead off the Vegas QB with Matt Ryan, Tom Brady and Drew Brees at the top. Things get interesting when looking for value options. Jameis Winston is widely considered the best value option across the industry. Vegas has both Winston and Derek Carr at 265.5 passing yards. Carr should check in at roughly half of Winston’s ownership in tournaments.

Vegas TE props: Jimmy Graham stands out

While Rob Gronkowski has the highest yardage prop (79.5) for a TE, Jimmy Graham is just behind him at 75.5. Vegas also has Graham at 5.5 receptions to Gronk’s 5. Graham has an elite matchup this week against the Saints defense. If you can’t afford Graham/Gronkowski Vegas likes Gray Barnidge and C.J. Fiedorowicz as value options. Barnidge has been over 12 PPR points in four of seven weeks. Meanwhile, C.J. Fiedorowicz gets one of the best matchups for a TE in the lions defense. They have already allowed seven TE touchdowns this season.

Devonta Freeman dealing with hip pointer

Freeman wore a non-contact jersey on Wednesday, but got in full practices on Thursday and Friday, and was subsequently removed from the injury report. Adam Schefter reported that he’s dealing with a hip pointer, which is more of a pain management issue. Freeman will still be the workhorse back with Tevin Coleman out, and he should be very active in the passing game. He’s priced at a discount due to his normal timeshare, which makes him a great points-per-dollar play this week, especially in full PPR formats.

Lamar Miller will be active Sunday

Adding to our previous report: Miller will be active today. It’s still not clear how much he’ll be able to play, which means rostering him comes with the risk that he won’t get a workload large enough to produce fantasy points.

RotoGrinders player props are live

RotoGrinders player props have been posted. They can be used to confirm your previous research or even to identify value that you missed. At RB, Spencer Ware checks in with the highest yardage prop (85.5) but Jacquizz Rodgers is just behind him (82.5). Vegas also sees David Johnson (84.5), Christine Michael (75.5) and Devonta Freeman (71.5) as usable options. Go check the props out for yourself. The late games will update automatically as they are posted in Las Vegas. https://rotogrinders.com/grids/nfl-player-props-week-8-1480894

Michael Floyd is facing an "uphill battle" to play Sunday

He’s dealing with an injured hamstring and it seems like he’ll miss the Cardinals’ game today against the Panthers. If he can’t go, J.J. Nelson would start in three-wide sets. Nelson picked up seven targets last week against the Seahawks when he filled in for John Brown and Jaron Brown. He’s an interesting tournament flier today.

There are "real concerns" over how much Lamar Miller can play today

Miller (shoulder) is adamant he’s playing, but there’s a good chance he’ll be limited if he does. Ian Rapoport reported there are concerns over his health, and the Texans may be worried about Miller suffering a setback. Alfred Blue has done well as a back up this season, averaging 5.4 yards per carry. It may be best to target the Texans’ passing game today. Detroit has allowed a league-high 18 touchdowns and they’ll be starting special-teamer Johnson Bademosi across from Will Fuller.

LeSean McCoy officially ruled OUT for Sunday

Mike Gillislee will start in place of McCoy, but he isn’t shaping up to be the value play we expected. Adam Schefter reported that the Bills will utilize a rotation today, and “ride the hot hand.” Jonathan Williams and Reggie Bush are both slated to get some snaps at running back. Gillislee will still be the lead back. Unfortunately, this means his volume won’t be as high as we originally expected, unless he gets the hot hand early. However, based on his price, he’s still on the tournament radar against the Patriots.

Randall Cobb not expected to play

Per Adam Schefter the Packers plan to be careful with WR Randall Cobb. He’s nursing a hamstring injury and they plan to sit him today versus the Falcons. Cobb would have had an excellent matchup today. Jordy Nelson is expected to be covered by Desmond Trufant. That leaves the rest of the Packers’ WRs running routes at the very beatable Brian Pool and Robert Alford. With Cobb out, Davante Adams and TY Montgomery are worth a look.

Christine Michael is a sneaky GPP option in Week 8

Normally when we get a game in the Superdome with a 2-point spread we want to target the passing games of both teams. However, Russell Wilson is pretty banged up, which may limit the upside of Seattle’s air attack. He was already hobbled up with a sprained MCL that’s limited his mobility (he had three total rushing yards over the last four games). Now he’s dealing with a pectoral injury that could affect his ability to throw the ball. Although the extent of the injury isn’t clear, there’s good reason to be concerned. Fortunately, there is another productive way to get exposure against the Saints’ defense. New Orleans has allowed 33.2 fantasy points per game to running backs, which is the most in the league. Seattle’s primary running back, Christine Michael, has averaged 4.2 yards per carry on the season and he’s scored four touchdowns. In the event that Wilson is more injured than we realize, Michael will pick up a large volume of touches and he should be effective with them against the Saints. There’s always the risk this game turns into a shootout, in which case Michael would lose some snaps to C.J. Prosise, but he still had three receptions with Prosise in the lineup against the Cardinals (they each had three targets). At the very least, Michael is an intriguing tournament option. There are plenty of more popular running backs this week, so his ownership should be relatively low, but he’ll enter the game with two-touchdown upside and he’s a good bet for 20 touches.

The Falcons have one of the best cover corners in the league in Desmond Trufant, yet rank 31st in passing yards allowed and 29th in passing TDs allowed. The reason for that is that Brian Poole and Robert Alford have not been good opposite Trufant. The Packers and Falcons face off in the game with the highest over/under of the week. With Eddie Lacy still out, the Packers should continue to utilize a pass-heavy approach. TY Montgomery has played the hybrid RB role the past two weeks and has 25 targets. Randall Cobb has 11 or more targets in three straight games. Finally, Davante Adams saw a ridiculous 16 targets last Thursday versus Chicago. With Montgomery and Adams catching up in price, the option that makes the most sense is Randall Cobb. We’ll want to make sure Cobb is good to go though as he was limited in practice this week with a hamstring injury. If Cobb sits, we can safely bump up projected targets for Montgomery and Adams which would make them much better plays.

A Look at the Colts Offense if Moncrief Returns

TY Hilton has at least nine targets in every game this year. He’s eclipsed 29.3 PPR points three times since Moncrief went down Week 2. The Chiefs have one of the best shut down corners in the league in Marcus Peters. He plays almost exclusively at Left Cornerback though. According to Pro Football Focus, Peters has lined up at LCB 92% of his snaps and 8% in the Slot. Conversely, Hilton has played just 23% of his snaps at RWR (where he would have to face Peters). The WR most likely to see a heavy dose of Peters is Phillip Dorsett who lines up at RWR 45% of the time.

If we assume that Peters will lock down Dorsett, we can predict the targets will go elsewhere. Andrew Luck is averaging 39.4 pass attempts per game. T.Y. Hilton should see his usual 10-12 targets. That should leave somewhere around 25 targets for the rest of the team. I would say that 5-7 of those will go to the RBs. I’d also assume that Moncrief should see somewhere around 7 targets. That probably doesn’t leave many targets for Jack Doyle at TE. The Chiefs typically use safety Eric Barry to cover TEs. Barry’s coverage skills have limited opposing TEs to just 42.4 yards per game and one total TD on the season.

Overall, Doyle and Dorsett are the main pieces of this offense that should be avoided. Hilton is probably the only option safe enough for cash games but everyone else mentioned can be considered in tournaments.

Is Mike Gillislee a viable option if McCoy is out?

Last week Mike Gillislee generated some buzz as a possible value option. For most people, LeSean McCoy playing limited snaps ruined any idea of playing Gillislee. This week, McCoy looks much more likely to sit after missing practice on Friday. That will naturally lead some DFS players to consider Gillislee. There are several reasons not to go that direction though. First, the Patriots are a top five run defense using Football Outsiders. Even using Defense Vs. Position numbers the Patriots rank 11th against the run. They allow just 75.86 rushing yards per game and have allowed just two rushing TDs all season.

If the matchup isn’t enough to scare you away from Gillislee, his usage should. Last week, McCoy played 23 snaps (40%), while Gillislee played 21 snaps (37%), and Reggis Bush played 18 snaps (32%). While Gillislee should be the main back on Sunday this situation could realistically be very close to a 50/50 split.

Jerick McKinnon officially ruled out for Monday

Updating a previous report. McKinnon has officially been scratched from the Vikings lineup. Matt Asiata will get the start and be a solid value option at running back; he should see a high volume of touches and be involved in both phases of the offense.