DFS Alerts
Will Fuller not expected to play Sunday night
Fuller is dealing with a hamstring injury and while he was able to practice this week (in a limited capacity), he’s not expected to suit up Sunday night against the Colts. It’ll leave DeAndre Hopkins as the clear leader of the passing attack with Lamar Miller likely the focal point against a non-resistant Colts run defense – 40.8% of running plays against the Colts have resulted in at least five yards, worst rate in the league. It’s now feasible that Vontae Davis will spend the evening tracking DeAndre Hopkins despite reports all week saying Davis would stick to his side. Hopkins is still not a viable cash game target unless his price has fallen along with his recent production, but he’s a fine GPP target. Jaelen Strong is also on the map as a differentiation GPP punt play at WR after seeing nine targets last week and 15 over his last two games. C.J. Fiedorowicz also gets a bump after his eight-target outing in Minnesota last week, and he’ll have an easier draw this week.
As reported by: Adam Schefter Other tagged players: DeAndre Hopkins, Jaelen Strong, C.J. Fiedorowicz
Jordan Reed ruled OUT for Week 6
This was expected as he had been placed in concussion protocol on Tuesday and has a history of head injuries. Vernon Davis will step up as the primary tight end in the passing game, but he’ll have a very tough matchup. Football Outsiders ranks the Eagles 4th in DVOA against tight ends, allowing just 2.4 receptions and 11.8 yards on average to the position. The Redskins are expected to use more three-wide sets in Reed’s absence, benefiting Jamison Crowder. Crowder started out hot with 25 targets and two touchdowns in their first three games, but has since cooled off; he has just three targets in each of the last two. DeSean Jackson will also pick up some extra looks. While the Eagles rank 5th in DVOA against WR1’s, they’re allowing 9.2 receptions and 86 yards to them on average. Both receivers are viable tournament options, but their boom-or-bust nature prevents them from being strong cash-game plays.
As reported by: Master Tesfastion Other tagged players: Jamison Crowder, DeSean Jackson
Cam Newton officially cleared to play, will start against the Saints
Newton projects as our top quarterback of the week in terms of raw points. The primary concern will be his willingness to run coming off a concussion. Reports came out earlier in the week that his inner circle is urging him to be more cautious on the field. He’s averaged 6.7 fantasy points per game on the ground this season, which is a very nice boost each week. Either way, he should produce plenty of fantasy goodness through the air in a game that many expect to turn into a shootout.
As reported by: Bryan Strickland Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Darrelle Revis listed as questionable for Monday
Both players were limited in practice today and are officially questionable to play against the Cardinals. Jenkins is expected to play, but isn’t quite ready to be rostered. The Jets haven’t really utilized their tight ends over the past couple of seasons and he’s still new to the team. However, with Eric Decker out, he’s a player to keep an eye on. Revis is probably 50/50, but doesn’t really help the Jets defense as he’s been pretty bad this season. Linebacker David Harris has started 121 straight games for the Jets, but is listed as doubtful and is not expected to play.
As reported by: Rich Cimini Other tagged players: Austin Seferian-Jenkins Allen Robinson struggles against top corners
A week after T.Y. Hilton burned the Bears’ secondary for 171 yards and a touchdown, Robinson has generated a lot of buzz, with many expecting a similar performance from the Jaguars’ receiver this week. However, he may have a harder time producing than expected. According to Pro Football Focus writer Scott Barrett, Robinson is averaging 0.68 fantasy points per target when going up against top-20 graded cornerbacks. Against bottom-25 corners, he’s putting up 3.1 fantasy points per target, with 53% of his total PPR points this season coming on nine of those targets. Jacksonville moves Robinson around the formation quite a bit — 37% on the left side, 29% in the slot, and 34% on the right — so he should see a little of all of the Bears’ corners. However, none of them are in the bottom-25. Their best corner, Bryce Callahan, is in the top 20, but is listed as questionable for the game. If he plays he should get Robinson a decent amount, although Tracy Porter is expected to cover Robinson the most. Porter is an above-average corner that PFF grades at 69.4. Fortunately for Robinson he isn’t a top-20 corner, but it will certainly be a tough test nonetheless. Chicago has a better pass defense than they demonstrated last week; they rank 14th in pass DVOA according to Football outsiders and have allowed just six touchdowns through the air. If Callahan ends up missing the game, it would be a big plus for Robinson, but if he goes Robinson may not be the lock people are expecting him to be, especially at his price.
As reported by: Scott Barrett Line movement in the Raiders-Chiefs game downgrades Oakland's offense
Vegas is always a good guide for choosing games to target, especially when there is notable line movement. The Raiders opened as 2-point home favorites against the Chiefs. By Thursday, the line switched to favor Kansas City. Currently, they are giving 1.5 points according to the Vegas Insider consensus line. Any time a line moves by more than a field goal it’s worth noting, but when it means an away team has switched from underdog to favorite, it’s significant. Clearly, the sharp money is on the Chiefs this weekend. There was also reverse line movement on the over/under. The game started the week with a 48.5 total, and despite 63% of the public taking the over, it actually shrunk to 46, implying sharp money is on the under. Bettors may be concerned with the potential for wet and windy weather, as reported by RotoGrinders meteorologist Kevin Roth, or just think it will be a slow game. Either way, it’s an ominous sign for fantasy production. Overall, it’s cause for concern when rostering Raiders offensive players as their implied team total has dropped from 25.25 to 22.25 points. Kansas City had a minor bump from 23.25 to 23.75 points, plus they have the sharp money on their side. With a timeshare between Jamaal Charles and Spencer Ware at running back, it could be a nice spot to target Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce. Since the Chiefs play conservative dink-and-dunk football, primarily scoring in the red zone, Kelce may be the best option. He has a 24.24% market share inside the 20-yard line (second-most among all tight ends and receivers in the NFL) and the Raiders allowed two red zone touchdowns to tight ends last week against the Chargers. Kansas City’s defense is also in play.
As reported by: Vegas Insider Other tagged players: Travis Kelce, Jeremy Maclin, Derek Carr, Alex Smith, Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, DeAndre Washington, Jalen Richard, Clive Walford, Jamaal Charles, Spencer Ware, Kansas City Chiefs James Starks ruled OUT against the Cowboys
Starks couldn’t practice all week due to a knee injury. Starter Eddie Lacy is currently questionable, but we expect him to play. With Starks out, Lacy should get a ton of snaps and touches against the Cowboys. To fill Starks’ place behind Lacy, the Packers are expected to use receivers Randall Cobb and Ty Montgomery. As noted earlier, Cobb is going to have an excellent matchup in the slot with rookie Anthony Brown. Now that he may be adding running back snaps into his workload, he’s a strong player to roster this weekend.
As reported by: Rob Demovsky Other tagged players: Eddie Lacy Randall Cobb is ready for another big game
Slot cornerback Orlando Scandrick has been ruled out for the Cowboys, leaving rookie Anthony Brown on Cobb this weekend. Brown has allowed 12 catches, 136 yards, and two touchdowns on 16 targets this year, according to the Star-Telegram. Cobb, who lines up in the slot on 69% of his snaps, should be very productive against Brown. Despite having a relatively quiet opening to the season, PFF has given him a grade of 81. He’s coming off a Sunday night game against the Giants where he posted a 9/108/0 line (and had a touchdown called back). With Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams battling Morris Claiborne (78.1) and Brandon Carr (73.7) on the outside, it would make sense for quarterback Aaron Rodgers to target Cobb repeatedly. In addition to his expected volume at receiver, Cobb is in line to take some snaps at running back behind Eddie Lacy now that James Starks has be ruled out of the game (Lacy is questionable, but we expect him to play). Everything is setting up for Cobb to be heavily involved and effective in Week 6.
As reported by: Star-Telegram Other tagged players: Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams Tyler Lockett is healthy and ready to rock
In Lockett’s only full game of the season, which came in Week 1 against the Dolphins, he had eight targets. While he only hauled in three of them for 17 yards, it came when Seattle’s offense was really struggling to put up points (12 total points through the first two games). They’ve found their rhythm since then, averaging 32 points per game over their last two. Lockett was limited in those matchups as he was dealing with a sprained PCL. Fortunately, he was able to rehab during their bye week and said he’s feeling great. Pete Carroll told reporters that Lockett’s role will expand this week. We’re expecting him to get back to his Week 1 involvement, where he was on the field for 62 snaps. Seattle’s opponent this weekend, the Atlanta Falcons, have allowed 14 passing touchdowns, which is the most in the NFL. Lockett has a high upside; as a rookie last season he had two multi-touchdown outings. Although he certainly isn’t a viable cash game option, he’s a sneaky tournament flier given his matchup and Seattle’s desire to get him involved.
As reported by: Seattle Times Jeremy Kerley is a strong GPP value option this week
San Francisco is expected to continue using Kerley as their number one receiver following a change at quarterback this weekend. Although Colin Kaepernick hasn’t been great in a while, it would be hard for him to be worse than Blaine Gabbert. Kerley had recently developed a strong chemistry with Gabbert though, and his recent success is not guaranteed to continue with Kap under center. Fortunately, this uncertainty has kept Kerley’s price very low across the industry. It will also keep his ownership low, as will their matchup. Buffalo has had a decent pass defense, ranking 17th in yards allowed per game (257), but 2nd in touchdowns (2). San Francisco is traveling to the east coast for a 1pm game, which tends to be a disadvantage. Plus, there was a little reverse line movement in Vegas this week. The 49ers started out as 7-point underdogs, and despite having 56% of bettors take them, they’re currently getting 8 points. This would actually predict good game flow for Kerley, but they have the lowest implied team total on the board at 18 points. All of these factors will push people away from the 49ers’ receiver, but targeting his risk can be an advantage. His points-per-dollar ceiling will be very high and he’ll be far less popular than similarly-priced options like Cameron Meredith. Kerley is a high risk/high reward player trending in the right direction and his team wants to get him the ball. Those are great qualities to have in a cheap tournament player.
Jamaal Charles will likely split time with Spencer Ware against the Raiders
Even though Charles said the training wheels were coming off, that probably isn’t the case. According to Chiefs beat writer Adam Teicher, “it would go against every cautious move the Chiefs have made with Charles” to give him a sizable workload Sunday. With a healthy Spencer Ware and Chardcandrick West behind him, there isn’t much of a reason for the Chiefs to rush him back. Earlier in the week, offensive coordinator Brad Childress said they would “sprinkle him in,” and it probably wasn’t coachspeak. Expect Charles to get somewhere between 40-60% of the touches out of the backfield; same with Ware. Neither player belongs in cash lineups, and aren’t great tournament plays with all of the strong running back options this week. However, Charles will only cost $5.1k on DraftKings this week, the cheapest he’ll be this season, and may be worth a flier given his talent and the plus matchup with the Raiders.
As reported by: ESPN Other tagged players: Spencer Ware Dwayne Washington and Justin Forsett expected to split workload for Lions
With Theo Riddick out this week against the Rams, the Lions will utilize both Washington (coming off injury) and Justin Forsett (signed by team on Tuesday). Washington will start the game, but both backs are expected to see about 10-12 carries. Offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter has already praised Forsett for picking up the offense quickly. Forsett only averaged 3.2 yards per carry before being cut by the Ravens, so it’s a wait-and-see approach with him. Washington is the better fantasy play this week, but given the timeshare, it will be hard to trust him despite his price. It’ll be best to avoid the Lions’ backfield this week.
As reported by: Michael Rothstein Other tagged players: Justin Forsett Sammie Coates is dealing with broken finger
Coates has seven stitches in his left hand and has a broken index finger, but still might play in Miami. It looks like he’ll be a game time decision tomorrow. Coates lacerated his hand in the first half of their Week 5 game against the Jets, got stitches at halftime, and played through the injury. If he plays, it’s reasonable to expect it’s because the Steelers want to use him, but he will be a riskier player to roster than he already was. He had several drops against the Jets, partially due to the injury. Since then, his hand got worse, which caused him to be held out of practice until Friday. If Coates ends up sitting, Eli Rogers should be in for a solid number of targets against the Dolphins. Darrius Heyward-Bey would see a higher snap count than normal, but won’t really be a viable fantasy option. Rogers had a nice game in Week 1 against the Redskins, catching six passes on seven targets for 59 yards and a touchdown. He would make for a possible GPP play as he’s going up against one of the worst secondaries in football. Rogers would line up across from Michael Thomas, Miami’s slot corner that PFF grades at a below-average 51.4. We’ll know tomorrow whether Coates plans on suiting up or not.
As reported by: Gerry Dulac Other tagged players: Eli Rogers T.J. Yeldon will be Jacksonville's feature back going forward
It appears as though Chris Ivory has taken a back seat after Yeldon piled up 127 total yards on 18 touches against the Colts in Week 4. He out-snapped Chris Ivory 54 to 18 in that game, even though they had a virtual tie the week before and Yeldon had just 29 yards on eight touches. Ivory had been even worse in Week 3, rushing for 14 yards on 12 carries. Jaguars offensive coordinator Greg OIson has been pleased with Yeldon in all phases of the game: running, receiving (he’s averaging 4.5 receptions per game), and blocking. This is good news for Yeldon’s fantasy production as it makes him an every down back that should see a solid volume of touches each week. He’s in a nice spot against the Bears, a team that ranks 25th in rush DVOA and 21st in adjusted line yards per carry (4.04), according to Football Outsiders. Given his expected workload, Yeldon is on the GPP radar, but he’s not a strong cash game option due to his lack of scoring opportunities. He’s 20th in red zone market share (25.93%). Overall, the Jaguars have had the fourth-fewest team opportunities in the red zone in the NFL with 27 (although they have had their bye, it’s not a good per game number either). In games like tomorrow’s with the Bears, Jacksonville can be expected to have better success marching down the field, providing Yeldon more chances to find the end zone. He’s a little too expensive on FanDuel, but on DraftKings he can be rostered for $4.4k. Yeldon currently projects as our 8th points-per-dollar running back on DK.
As reported by: The Florida Times-Union Other tagged players: Chris Ivory NFL Week 6 Weather
As you make the final adjustments to your lineups this weekend make sure you keep an eye on the weather. There are a few games that will likely be impacted by rain and/or wind. Oakland, Miami, and Seattle may all get hit with some rain (with Seattle potentially experiencing thunderstorms) along with high winds. Buffalo is expecting strong sustained winds, but should stay dry. Check our weather page for the full scoop and be sure to give it another look on gameday.
As reported by: Kevin Roth