DFS Alerts
Rondale Moore 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Rondale Moore is expected to be the fantasy WR75. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR58 at pick 120, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 159 as of July. We currently expect a 12% target share which amounts to a projection of 75 targets (Rank 80) and 553 receiving yards (Rank 77) during the 17 week fantasy season.
The Cardinals were able to nab Rondale Moore in the second round of this year’s NFL Draft. And while he is already turning plenty of heads in camp, where exactly he fits in to this wide receiver corps of DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, and Christian Kirk remains to be seen. Based on our projections and where he is getting drafted, it looks like this is a guy I won’t have much exposure to. Coming from a guy who grew up going to Purdue football games, that is pretty disappointing to say!
A.J. Green 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, A.J. Green is expected to be the fantasy WR72. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR74 at pick 163, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 156 as of July. We currently expect a 13% target share which amounts to a projection of 86 targets (Rank 67) and 574 receiving yards (Rank 74) during the 17 week fantasy season.
After being with the Cincinnati Bengals for 10 seasons, Green signed with the Cardinals in the offseason. Alongside DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, and the newly drafted Rondale Moore, the addition of Green makes this a pretty skilled group of wide receivers for Kyler Murray to target. It will be interesting to see if Green is able to rebound from his worst season as a pro. He turned 104 targets into just 47 receptions, 523 yards, and 2 TD’s. Was that more because of an unsteady quarterback situation after the Joe Burrow injury? Or was it the normal decline we see from aging wide receivers? I’m guessing we will know for sure this season, as the Cardinals are shaping up to be one of the better offenses in the league.
James Conner 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, James Conner is expected to be the fantasy RB33. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as RB36 at pick 114, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 106 as of July. We currently expect 600 yards rushing during the first 17 weeks (Rank 33) with a 37% share of team carries. We also expect a 5% target share which amounts to a projection of 32 targets (Rank 45) and 173 receiving yards (Rank 46).
With Kenyan Drake now in Las Vegas, the Cardinals brought in Conner to share the backfield with Chase Edmonds. As noted above, early projections at RotoGrinders have Conner looking at 37% of the team carries and 5% of the target share. Edmonds, on the other hand, is projecting for 33% of the team carries and 11% of the market share. Both guys are currently being drafted in line with where our projections are, but each of them also carries plenty of upside (and downside) should either catapult up to getting the bulk of the work in this currently projected timeshare.
Chase Edmonds 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Chase Edmonds is expected to be the fantasy RB28. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as RB28 at pick 79, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 76 as of July. We currently expect 568 yards rushing during the first 17 weeks (Rank 35) with a 33% share of team carries. We also expect a 11% target share which amounts to a projection of 71 targets (Rank 13) and 415 receiving yards (Rank 14).
After backing up Kenyan Drake (who is now with the Raiders) in 2020, Edmonds will now be sharing the Cardinals backfield with the newly acquired James Conner. While we have Edmonds projected for 33% of the team carries and 11% of the target share, Conner is projecting for 37% of the team carries and 5% of the target share. Both guys are currently being drafted in line with where our projections are, but each of them also carries plenty of upside (and downside) should either catapult up to getting the bulk of the work in this currently projected timeshare.
Kyler Murray 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Kyler Murray is expected to be the fantasy QB3. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as QB4 at pick 56, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 47 as of July. We currently expect 4,454 passing yards (Rank 9) and 28 passing touchdowns (Rank 8) during the 17 week fantasy season. We also expect 655 yards rushing (Rank 2) with a 26% share of team rush attempts.
With the Cardinals adding A.J. Green and Rondale Moore to go alongside DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk, you could make the case that Kyler has his best set of weapons since entering the league. So it’s little surprise that he is projected to throw for almost 4,500 yards. But it is Kyler’s legs that really make him such a fantasy football cheat code, so I am curious if we see more of the Kyler from the first half of last season or the second half of the season. Remember, an injured shoulder caused him to pump the brakes a little on the running, and he’s made some comments publicly that his rushing should be more of a luxury as opposed to a necessity. Regardless of where exactly that falls, Kyler likely ends the season as one of the best fantasy football quarterbacks out there.
DeAndre Hopkins 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, DeAndre Hopkins is expected to be the fantasy WR3. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR4 at pick 15, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 13 as of July. We currently expect a 27% target share which amounts to a projection of 172 targets (Rank 4) and 1,456 receiving yards (Rank 2) during the 17 week fantasy season.
There may have been a fair amount of turnover on the Cardinals offense during the offseason. Gone are Kenyan Drake and (likely) Larry Fitzgerald; in are A.J. Green, Rondale Moore, and James Conner. That being said, we know the main constant for this team will continue to be the Kyler-Nuk connection. Hopkins saw a cool 161 targets last season, his first with Arizona, which was the second most in the league behind only Stefon Diggs (166). We are pretty much expecting more of the same this season, which leads to Hopkins being a top 3 wide receiver and top 15 pick overall.
Tom Brady 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Tom Brady is expected to be the fantasy QB7. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as QB11 at pick 102, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 93 as of July. We currently expect 4565 passing yards (Rank 4) and 32 passing touchdowns (Rank 3) during the 17 week fantasy season. We also expect 39 yards rushing (Rank 35) with a 6% share of team rush attempts.
Fresh of yet another Super Bowl, Brady enters the 2021 season ready to mount a title defense in Tampa. He might be 43 years old, but there’s little reason to doubt his fantasy production. Last year, Brady only got better as the season progressed. This year it won’t take the Bucs two months to find their chemistry. Expect Brady to continue to throw the ball downfield with Bruce Arians calling the plays, and to one of the more talented receiving groups in the NFL. Surrounded by talent and with a pass-happy coach, Brady provides safe floor for fantasy owners. We happen to think there’s some value at his current ADP of QB11.
Trevor Lawrence 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Trevor Lawrence is expected to be the fantasy QB14. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as QB15 at pick 125, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 130 as of July. We currently expect 4,161 passing yards (Rank 20) and 23 passing touchdowns (Rank 23) during the 17 week fantasy season. We also expect 347 yards rushing (Rank 6) with a 19% share of team rush attempts.
In addition to having just outstanding hair, it turns out that Trevor Lawrence is also pretty good at football. The #1 pick in this year’s draft is right on pace to be under center for the Jaguars in their Week 1 “showdown” with the Texans, which is resulting in him being projected to roughly be a Top 15 fantasy QB this season. With head coach Urban Meyer also making his professional football (coaching) debut with Jacksonville, the range of outcomes surrounding this offense is undoubtedly wide. I am personally falling in love with the upside while being completely oblivious to the downside. So apparently my range of outcomes as a fantasy football player is going to be just as wide!
Marvin Jones 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Marvin Jones is expected to be the fantasy WR53. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR57 at pick 116, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 110 as of July. We currently expect a 16% target share which amounts to a projection of 98 targets (Rank 52) and 800 receiving yards (Rank 49) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Jones (20.3%) was a somewhat surprising leader over Kenny Golladay (19.9%) in target share for the Lions last season, but now Jones has moved on to Jacksonville where he will be competing with the likes of DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault for targets from the #1 overall pick in this year’s draft, Trevor Lawrence. While the 16% target share we have for Jones right now is slightly behind that of Chark (21%) and Shenault (20%), it is still plenty enough to give him fantasy relevance. Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear like there is much value left to squeeze out of Jones based on where the industry is drafting him. But for a guy who often seems to be able to sniff out the endzone more than you’d think (e.g. 9 TD receptions in three of the past four seasons), there’s always the chance that he can drastically outperform his ADP in his first season as a Jag.
James Robinson 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, James Robinson is expected to be the fantasy RB31. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as RB32 at pick 97, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 96 as of July. We currently expect 718 yards rushing during the first 17 weeks (Rank 30) with a 40% share of team carries. We also expect a 5% target share which amounts to a projection of 33 targets (Rank 43) and 181 receiving yards (Rank 42).
Even with Jacksonville’s addition of the #25 pick, Travis Etienne, Robinson still projects to have plenty of fantasy relevance in the Jaguars backfield. Okay, maybe not “241 of the team’s 282 running back carries” relevance like he pulled off last season, but relevance nonetheless. The key with Robinson is to not draft him based on what he did last year but rather to draft him based on what he projects to do this year. And as things look right now, that is exactly what the rest of the field is doing.
Travis Etienne 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Travis Etienne is expected to be the fantasy RB23. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as RB22 at pick 59, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 71 as of July. We currently expect 567 yards rushing during the first 17 weeks (Rank 37) with a 31% share of team carries. We also expect a 14% target share which amounts to a projection of 85 targets (Rank 6) and 484 receiving yards (Rank 8).
Well, it appears that the industry is just as high on Etienne as we are. Even after James Robinson darn near handled every rushing attempt for the Jags last season, they still used the #25 pick to scoop up Etienne out of Clemson. And while Etienne will get his fair share of carries, Jacksonville also plans to get him plenty of work in the passing game. That is why you see that 14% target share for him, which is ultimately a driving factor for why he is going ahead of Robinson in drafts (even with Robinson projecting to handle a bigger share of the team’s rushes). The Jacksonville backfield situation is certainly one you’ll want to be all over in the news throughout the preseason, as any movement one way or another between Etienne and Robinson could have major consequences in drafts.
Laviska Shenault 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Laviska Shenault is expected to be the fantasy WR31. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR39 at pick 78, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 62 as of July. We currently expect a 20% target share which amounts to a projection of 118 targets (Rank 32) and 836 receiving yards (Rank 42) during the 17 week fantasy season.
The departures of Chris Conley and Keelan Cole combined with the addition of Marvin Jones is still leading to a net win for Shenault’s fantasy outlook. In his 14 games last season, Shenault had just a 15.2% target share, which he was able to turn into 600 yards and 5 TD’s. With that healthy boost in target share expected this season—and #1 pick Trevor Lawrence now likely being the one who will be throwing him passes—Shenault finds himself on the cusp of being a Top 30 wide receiver and being a solid value in drafts. I am already uncomfortable with how heavily I will be invested in the Jaguars this season.
DJ Chark 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, DJ Chark is expected to be the fantasy WR27. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR34 at pick 71, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 57 as of July. We currently expect a 21% target share which amounts to a projection of 128 targets (Rank 26) and 995 receiving yards (Rank 26) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Perhaps lost in the hubbub of all of the Jaguars offseason additions is that Chark is still the WR1 here and still really good at football. With the likes of Gardner Minshew, Mike Glennon, and Jake Luton throwing him passes in 2020, Chark is now likely to be seeing lasers from this year’s #1 pick, Trevor Lawrence. That is partly why he is seeing a meaningful bump in his per-game projections compared to the numbers he put up last season. And from the looks of it, Chark is going a little later in drafts than those projections think he should be.
Tyrod Taylor 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Tyrod Taylor is expected to be the fantasy QB26. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as QB35 at pick 274, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 199 as of July. We currently expect 3,896 passing yards (Rank 26) and 20 passing touchdowns (Rank 29) during the 17 week fantasy season. We also expect 221 yards rushing (Rank 11) with a 15% share of team rush attempts.
Ladies and gentlemen, your starting quarterback for this year’s Houston Texans…Tyrod Taylor? Well, depending on what happens to Deshaun Watson from a trade (and legal) standpoint, that very well could be the case. And as you can see, Taylor’s current ADP is outside of the top 32. So I don’t think it’s a terrible idea to take a proactive approach here and operate under the assumption that Deshaun Watson has already played in his last snap as quarterback for the Houston Texans. Whether or not you are of the belief that Taylor is a worthy candidate to be a starting NFL quarterback is largely irrelevant, because you’d probably have to agree that he can still be a fantasy football asset. The fact that we have him as QB26—with the kind of skill position players that Houston currently has—is a testament to just that.
Jordan Akins 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Jordan Akins is expected to be the fantasy TE25. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as TE36 at pick 262, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 194 as of July. We currently expect a 11% target share which amounts to a projection of 61 targets (Rank 25) and 428 receiving yards (Rank 24) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Akins fits the same mold as most of the Texans skill position players. By that I mean the uncertainty surrounding Houston’s quarterback situation is apparently resulting in the general public being a little hesitant to draft them where our projections think they should be drafted. And since we currently have Tyrod Taylor as the QB1 on our depth chart, there is theoretically only room to go up here for Akins if he happens to have Watson around to throw him passes instead of Taylor. My motto on Texans skill position players this upcoming season is “you could certainly do worse”, and there is little doubt for me that Akins falls into that category too.