DFS Alerts
Anthony Miller 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Anthony Miller is expected to be the fantasy WR82. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR98 at pick 220, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 172 as of July. We currently expect a 15% target share which amounts to a projection of 86 targets (Rank 68) and 531 receiving yards (Rank 81) during the 17 week fantasy season.
After three mediocre seasons in Chicago, Miller is now in Houston where he will be competing with guys like Nico Collins, Keke Coutee, and Chris Conley to be the WR2 next to Brandin Cooks. As things stand now, we have Miller slotted for a target share (15%) that would actually exceed what he saw last season with Chicago (12.6%). That is leading to Miller actually representing a pretty solid value in the later rounds of drafts, and that is with Tyrod Taylor the assumed QB1 in our projections at the time I am writing this.
Nico Collins 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Nico Collins is expected to be the fantasy WR80. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR92 at pick 204, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 163 as of July. We currently expect a 14% target share which amounts to a projection of 78 targets (Rank 79) and 573 receiving yards (Rank 75) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Collins is another example of a Texans skill position player that is going later in drafts than our projections say he should be. And that is with us assuming Tyrod Taylor is the QB1 at the time I am writing this. Collins, the rookie out of Michigan who was Houston’s 3rd Round draft pick this summer, looks to have an early stranglehold on WR2 in this Texans offense alongside Brandin Cooks. Who will be throwing him the football by the time the real games start is anyone’s guess, but you can certainly bet on there being a lot of Texans passes this season based on how often they figure to be losing (at least a touchdown underdog in 10 of their 17 games). So the volume is likely to be there in Collins’s rookie season. Will the fantasy production follow?
Phillip Lindsay 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Phillip Lindsay is expected to be the fantasy RB45. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as RB51 at pick 179, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 164 as of July. We currently expect 532 yards rushing during the first 17 weeks (Rank 39) with a 32% share of team carries. We also expect a 4% target share which amounts to a projection of 23 targets (Rank 55) and 97 receiving yards (Rank 68).
Lindsay goes from being in a timeshare in Denver with Melvin Gordon to being in a timeshare in Houston with David Johnson. And while the latter may seem a touch worse on the surface (especially depending on what happens with Deshaun Watson), the truth of the matter is that there is still a very small amount of value to squeeze out here based on where Lindsay is getting drafted. The talent is there; this is a guy who gained 1,000+ yards on the ground in each of his first two seasons in the league. Whether the opportunity will be there though—and how good this offense will be depending on who is at quarterback—is another story altogether.
David Johnson 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, David Johnson is expected to be the fantasy RB32. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as RB43 at pick 134, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 105 as of July. We currently expect 644 yards rushing during the first 17 weeks (Rank 32) with a 41% share of team carries. We also expect a 6% target share which amounts to a projection of 37 targets (Rank 37) and 231 receiving yards (Rank 30).
The apparent stink of having any Houston Texan on one’s fantasy team is resulting in David Johnson going a little later in drafts than our projections warrant. And considering we are expecting Johnson to underwhelm on a per-game basis compared to what he did last season, I’d say that is pretty noteworthy. I guess the best way to summarize Johnson’s fantasy outlook is: you could certainly do worse!
Taysom Hill 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Taysom Hill is expected to be the fantasy QB28. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as QB28 at pick 202, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 200 as of July. We currently expect 3321 passing yards (Rank 28) and 21 passing touchdowns (Rank 27) during the 17 week fantasy season. We also expect 304 yards rushing (Rank 7) with a 15% share of team rush attempts.
Hill practiced with the second-team offense on July 31, but the possibility of missing Michael Thomas for as much as the first half of the season increases Hill’s odds of winning the starting job. Why? Because the Saints have one of the thinnest receiving corps in the NFL, so Sean Payton could turn to the dual-threat quarterback to help implement a run-heavy scheme on offense. With that in mind, there’s merit to drafting Hill as a naked QB if you’re looking to add a third quarterback in the final rounds of your best ball drafts.
Latavius Murray 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Latavius Murray is expected to be the fantasy RB41. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as RB41 at pick 126, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 128 as of July. We currently expect 519 yards rushing during the first 17 weeks (Rank 42) with a 31% share of team carries. We also expect a 4% target share which amounts to a projection of 26 targets (Rank 50) and 142 receiving yards (Rank 54).
In terms of potential fantasy production, Latavius Murray is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Thomas injury news. Murray could see anywhere from 10-15 carries a game if the Saints lean heavily on the run. There will be times when both Murray and Kamara are on the field, the latter of whom will often be used creatively in motion as a pass-catcher, which will help open holes for Murray in the backfield.
Adam Trautman 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Adam Trautman is expected to be the fantasy TE10. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as TE13 at pick 130, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 121 as of July. We currently expect a 13% target share which amounts to a projection of 77 targets (Rank 11) and 545 receiving yards (Rank 14) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Adam Trautman becomes the Saints’ full-time tight end following the departures of Jared Cook and Josh Hill. The 24-year-old is an excellent run-blocker, but that doesn’t so much help his fantasy outlook. However, when the Saints aren’t running the ball, Trautman will be a large target in the middle of the field, especially while Thomas is out. Catching 15-of-16 passes as a rookie, Trautman proved he has soft hands. Both Hill or Winston will be wise to look for the second-year tight end in the red zone. In fact, we project Tautman to lead the Saints with just over five touchdowns receiving. He likely won’t start in managed leagues until he proves more on the field, but he’s worth late-round consideration in Underdog best ball drafts and if you’re trying to punt the TE position in DFS.
Tre'quan Smith 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Tre’Quan Smith is expected to be the fantasy WR57. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR60 at pick 128, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 117 as of July. We currently expect a 16% target share which amounts to a projection of 92 targets (Rank 61) and 740 receiving yards (Rank 54) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Smith immediately steps into the top receiving role (at least downfield) for as long as Thomas is sidelined. Smith’s breakaway speed makes him a big-play, touchdown threat as the team’s no. 1 receiver on the depth chart. However, the concern is the Saints’ offensive efficiency (or lack thereof) without Thomas. For one, head coach Sean Payton may go with Taysom Hill and adopt a run-heavy approach when calling plays. Secondly, a bottom-third NFL offense is within the Saints’ range of outcomes. I prefer Smith as a cheap wide receiver in the early weeks of 2021 DFS.
Michael Thomas 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Michael Thomas is expected to be the fantasy WR48. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR27 at pick 53, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 91 as of July. We currently expect a 18% target share which amounts to a projection of 100 targets (Rank 50) and 825 receiving yards (Rank 44) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Michael Thomas underwent ankle surgery in June and could miss significant time as a result. Depending on the extent of his absence, the news may have a domino effect on the Saints’ offense and ultimately dictate who head coach Sean Payton names the starting quarterback in Week 1. If Thomas’ recovery is slow, the Saints are more likely to turn to Taysom Hill over Jameis Winston they adopt a run-heavy philosophy on offense. Though Thomas’ health make him a major question mark, it doesn’t mean you should avoid him in best ball formats. He may be a bet worth making if he drops low enough.
Marquez Callaway 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Marquez Callaway is expected to be the fantasy WR64. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR82 at pick 182, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 129 as of July. We currently expect a 15% target share which amounts to a projection of 91 targets (Rank 62) and 652 receiving yards (Rank 63) during the 17 week fantasy season.
We expected Callaway to battle Deonte Harris for the third spot on the depth chart, but now they’ll compete to be the no. 2 receiver, at least until Thomas is healthy. Our projections are more bullish than the market, suggesting there’s some value on Callaway at his current ADP of WR86. However, pay close attention to news coming out of training camp. Callaway is better off if the Saints go with Jameis Winston, but don’t be surprised if head coach Sean Payton rolls with Taysom Hill and a run-heavy offense, a decision that will limit Callaway’s upside. Considering his range of outcomes, I don’t mind reaching a bit and drat Marquez ahead of his Underdog ADP, especially if your roster construction includes 10 wide receivers.
Darrynton Evans 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Darrynton Evans is expected to be the fantasy RB67. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as RB53 at pick 183, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 237 as of July. We currently expect 183 yards rushing during the first 17 weeks (Rank 69) with a 12% share of team carries. We also expect a 5% target share which amounts to a projection of 29 targets (Rank 47) and 130 receiving yards (Rank 56).
We currently have Evans ahead of Jeremy McNichols (and behind King Henry, of course) on the Titans RB depth chart. But even with his handcuff value and possible work on clear passing downs, it’s hard to get too excited here based on where Evans is currently getting drafted. There is an obvious situation in which you are thrilled to have him on your roster, but the prudent decision is probably to look elsewhere if you are looking for value.
Josh Reynolds 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Josh Reynolds is expected to be the fantasy WR93. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR101 at pick 227, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 214 as of July. We currently expect a 10% target share which amounts to a projection of 56 targets (Rank 87) and 373 receiving yards (Rank 94) during the 17 week fantasy season.
After four season with the Rams, Reynolds now finds himself in Tennessee as the Titans No. 3 WR behind A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. Already getting drafted a little later than he should be based on our projections, Reynolds is one Brown/Julio injury away from being an immense fantasy value in 2021. And based on how many yards and points we are expecting from the Titans offense this season, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he wins you a week or two with an outlier performance when opposing defenses are too keyed in on guys like Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, and Julio Jones.
Anthony Firkser 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Anthony Firkser is expected to be the fantasy TE16. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as TE20 at pick 162, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 145 as of July. We currently expect a 13% target share which amounts to a projection of 72 targets (Rank 17) and 521 receiving yards (Rank 19) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Even though the Titans added Julio Jones in the offseason, Firsker still got a meaningful boost with the departure of Jonnu Smith. Last season, Jonnu logged 75% of the snaps while taking in a 16.3% target share. Firkser played only 32% of the snaps while seeing just an 11.9% target share. The opportunity should be there this season for Firkser to take on a much bigger role. And considering how high we are on the Titans offense as a whole, it seems that Firkser isn’t getting drafted as highly as he should be.
Ryan Tannehill 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Ryan Tannehill is expected to be the fantasy QB9. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as QB12 at pick 110, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 98 as of July. We currently expect 4,406 passing yards (Rank 11) and 27 passing touchdowns (Rank 9) during the 17 week fantasy season. We also expect 214 yards rushing (Rank 13) with a 9% share of team rush attempts.
In 2020, Tannehill put up a respectable 3,819 yards through the air (238.6 per game) to go along with 33 TD passes and just 7 interceptions. With a projection of 4,406 passing yards (259.2 per game), we are expecting him to be even better in 2021. With the addition of Julio Jones out wide to an already stellar offense, Tannehill and the Titans are shaping up to be one of the best offenses in the league. And yet, you still might be able to squeeze a little value out of Tannehill based on where he is getting drafted right now.
Julio Jones 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Julio Jones is expected to be the fantasy WR10. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR16 at pick 36, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 30 as of July. We currently expect a 23% target share which amounts to a projection of 132 targets (Rank 24) and 1,190 receiving yards (Rank 11) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Well, this should certainly be fun to watch. A Titans team that averaged 30.6 points per game last season now has Julio Jones to add alongside names like Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown. And while that may mean a small ding across the board for all of those guys’ fantasy outlooks, it’s pretty telling that our projections still have Julio as a top 10 fantasy wide receiver. Considering the public doesn’t appear to be treating him that way, that means it’s Julio SZN once again. Just this time he is going to be in a different uniform.