DFS Alerts
Underowned & Elite Every Down RB
Christian McCaffrey as the most expensive RB on a slate was probably not what most people expected to see this year, but he has totally earned it. He’s 7th in the NFL in rushing yards, 5th in yards per carry, and 11th in the NFL in receptions, McCaffrey is essentially an RB1 and WR1 all in one player. His matchup this week is also elite as the Browns have been destroyed by opposing RBs, especially those who catch passes as they bring tons of pressure leading to dump offs to RBs. McCaffrey has the highest floor and highest ceiling on the slate (multiple TD and double bonus type upside), yet will likely be a bit under-owned due to the value at the position.
Big Play WR Due for Breakout Performance
Very few wide receivers have squandered as many opportunities as Antonio Callaway has this year, but he oozes with upside in his week 14 matchup with the Panthers. You might even say he’s due. Last week against the Texans, Callaway was targeted on a deep ball in the first half only to be tackled by the corner to prevent a touchdown. In the third quarter, he scorched past the Texans secondary for a 76 yard TD only to have it called back on a penalty. Then, just two plays later, he caught a deep ball from Baker Mayfield only to be tackled and stripped of the ball just before reaching the end zone. If any of those things break his way, we are looking at a much more popular play this week. His matchup against the Panthers this week is extremely exploitable too, as they are 31st in DVOA to #2 WRs and 27th vs. deep passes, Callaway’s specialty. The Panthers struggle to create a pass rush as well , which should give Baker Mayfield enough time to hit Callaway for a deep ball this week and take you to the top of GPPs.
Doug Baldwin doesn't practice Thursday; Chris Carson limited
Doug Baldwin doesn’t practice Thursday, and it’s a new ailment (hip). It’s a little unclear what his status will be come Sunday, but Tyler Lockett and David Moore would both benefit if Baldwin can’t go. Chris Carson was limited today but they have been managing his reps to a degree late in the season, so this one isn’t too concerning yet.
As reported by: Bob Condotta Other tagged players: Chris Carson
Raiders WR Seth Roberts (concussion) added to injury report as a limited participant in practice
Raiders WR Seth Roberts (concussion) added to injury report as a limited participant in practice earlier, so he suffered the injury today. Third time entering concussion protocol in recent months – he also was in the protocol in training camp and Oct. 14 against the Seahawks. If he’s limited or can’t go, Jordy Nelson, Jared Cook and Marcell Ateman could see an inflated target share.
As reported by: Michael Gehlken Other tagged players: Jordy Nelson, Marcell Ateman, Jared Cook TNF Inactives: DJ Chark, Dave Williams, Jeremy McNichols, David Fluellen
No surprises here. Chark was ruled out earlier in the week, which should afford Keelan Cole the opportunity to run as the #3 WR behind Moncrief and Westbrook. None of the Jags pass-catchers are terribly appealing options, but the trio is in play for showdown slates.
Cheap, Low-Owned WR in a Smash Spot
There is a lot of potential value at RB this week, and a Bills WR is not something most people can stomach, but this just adds to the allure of Zay Jones in GPPs this week. Over the last 3 games, Jones has a 28% market share, and a weighted opportunity rating of .60 (despite a 1 target clunker vs. the Jags in Week 12), which would match that of Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs and Amari Cooper if extrapolated over the entire season. Playing the majority of his snaps in the slot, Zay gets a juicy matchup against Buster Skrine and the Jets, who allow the league’s 2nd-most fantasy points to slot receivers. Zay himself went 8/93/1 in Week 10 vs. the Jets with a 42% target share. Use him as a pivot off the chalky cheap WRs or play him alongside them to get access to the stud RBs.
This Stud has GPP-Winning Upside
With Mike McCarthy finally out of the fold in Green Bay, I fully expect Aaron Rodgers to run the show on offense this week for the Packers. In lieu of any other weapons that Rodgers trusts, Adams should be an absolute volume hog (considering his 36% market share of team air yards) against a defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass and 28th in DVOA vs WR1s.
Joe Flacco (hip) again listed as limited on Ravens Thursday injury report
Joe Flacco (hip) again listed as limited on Ravens Thursday injury report, but it’s still looking very much like Lamar Jackson will be under center against Kansas City. If that outlook changes, we’ll let you know. John Brown missed Thursday’s practice, but it was just a veteran rest day, so he’ll be fine for Sunday.
Other tagged players: John Brown, Lamar Jackson Sammy Watkins still limited at practice Thursday
Sammy Watkins still limited at practice Thursday, but the fact that he’s out there does seem to suggest he’s got a pretty good shot at returning this weekend. Friday’s participation will likely shed a good deal of light on his eventual status for Week 14. If he can’t go, we’ll see Chris Conley become more involved with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce almost surely leading the way in target share. This is a tough on-paper draw for the Chiefs offense, but Baltimore has sagged a little defensively and this offense has been as explosive as we’ve seen in recent years.
Other tagged players: Chris Conley Michael Thomas (ankle) returns to full practice Thursday
Thomas was a full participant in Thursday’s practice after sitting out Wednesday’s session due to an ankle injury. This upgrade in status is great news for his availability in Sunday’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and he should be good to go barring a setback. Assuming that is indeed the case, Thomas draws one of the best matchups on the board as he gets to face off with a Buccaneers defense that ranks 22nd in pass DVOA and 27th versus wide receiver ones this season.
As reported by: Ian Rapoport via Twitter
Deshaun Watson (shoulder) practices in full Thursday
Watson was a full participant in Thursday’s practice after previously being listed as limited on Wednesday afternoon. An injury to Watson’s throwing shoulder is a bit concerning, but he remains poised as an intriguing tournament target for Week 14 in a matchup with the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon. In fact, the game presently has a 49.5 over/under and appears to have a great chance of becoming a shootout with the spread sitting at just 4.5 points and both the Texans and Colts ranking top-eight in situation-neutral seconds per play on the season.
As reported by: Texans PR via Twitter Josh Adams (shoulder) logs a full practice Thursday
Adams was a full participant in Thursday’s practice after previously being listed as limited on Wednesday afternoon. Adams has been the clear lead running back in the Eagles backfield over the last few weeks, but the return of Darren Sproles from a hamstring injury and Corey Clement mixing in on limited snaps has hampered his involvement in the passing game. The matchup with the Cowboys defense is far from ideal, and the Eagles are currently projected for fewer than 20 implied points with Dallas receiving a ton of respect from Vegas following their dominant defensive performance against the New Orleans Saints in Week 13.
As reported by: Mike Kaye via Twitter RB Joe Mixon (foot) limited again Thursday
The Bengals’ Friday practice report will need to be monitored, but Mixon is still expected to lead the backfield on Sunday. However, the Bengals have an implied team total of less than 17 points despite the Chargers vulnerable run defense, which may benefit from stacking the box against an uninspiring Jeff Driskel at QB.
As reported by: Jay Morrison
TE Evan Engram (hamstring) and WR Sterling Shepard (ribs) practice in full Thursday
Engram should still be considered questionable for Week 14’s contest against the Redskins though he’s looking on track to make his return. Even so, he may cede snaps to fellow tight end Rhett Ellison who has averaged 6.5 targets per game over the past 2 games, so Engram likely doesn’t justify the price tag coming back from a hamstring injury. Shepard is expected to play but remains a non-factor in this offense with Odell Beckham Jr. and Saquon Barkley being heavy focal points.
As reported by: Pat Leonard Other tagged players: Sterling Shepard This Overlooked Running Back is Piling Up Receptions
Doug Martin looks like he will be able to play in Week 14 despite nursing a knee issue, but I still like Jalen Richard as a salary-saver at the running back position, even with Martin active. Richard has been heavily involved in the passing game all season long, with at least four targets in every game since Week 2, and last week put up a season high with 126 total yards. On the season Richard ranks 9th among running backs in targets (67) and 6th in receptions (56). The Raiders will likely be trailing again on Sunday as 10-point underdogs to the Steelers, so this could be a week where Richard ends up on the higher end of his projected fantasy point range, still at a bargain price.
