DFS Alerts
Top TE To Pay Up For In Week 9
Currently leading all NFL tight ends in target market share through the first half of the season, Kelce will look to continue rolling in Week 9 against a Dallas defense that ranks 29th in pass DVOA against opposing tight ends this season. Kelce is one of the few reliable receiving options on a run-first offense but with proper game flow on his side, can pay dividends as Alex Smith’s favorite red zone target. Often lining up in the perimeter in head coach Andy Reid’s “Y-ISO Trips” package, Kelce’s size and speed will create mismatches for an overrated Dallas defense. In what should be a high scoring affair in Dallas this week, expect a big performance from Kelce as Kansas City’s most reliable receiving threat.
Veteran Value At WR
If you’re looking for value at WR this week, look no further than T.Y. HIlton, who continues to dominate target market share among Indianapolis receivers. After a tough loss on the road in Cincinnati last week, Hilton and the Colts draw a sneaky good matchup against a banged up Houston secondary that is missing several of their key defensive playmakers. Hilton owns some of the most drastic indoor/outdoor splits among starting receivers; averaging 26 more receiving yards per game on indoor turf where nearly 75% of his career touchdowns have been scored. In a prime bounceback spot for Indianapolis, Hilton should have no problems paying off his very attractive price tag as his team’s only reliable wide receiver.
Pay Up To Be Contrarian At WR
Entering Week 9 as the highest priced WR industry wide, Hopkins will most certainly go overlooked in tournaments following a season ending injury to quarterback DeShaun Watson earlier this week. Currently leading all NFL wide receivers in target market share, one might assume Hopkins loses the majority of his value with Tom Savage at the helm for the Texans. While it certainly won’t come without risk, Hopkins has averaged 12.6 targets and 77 yards per game in five games Savage has played over the years. He should once again be heavily involved in his team’s offense this week against a depleted Indianapolis secondary that ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA this season.
Underpriced RB With Great Matchup
If you’re looking to exploit one of NFL’s worst defense in Week 9, consider taking rookie Christian McCaffrey, who will look to breakout after two mediocre performances. Not your prototypical “change of pace” running back, McCaffrey’s exceptional ability in the passing game affords him more opportunities as one of the league’s most dynamic all around talents. He draws a great matchup against an Atlanta defense that ranks 27th in run defense DVOA and has historically struggled to defend pass catching running backs under head coach Dan Quinn. With Cam Newton starting to find his touch even without Kelvin Benjamin or Greg Olsen, expect McCaffrey to get plenty of opportunities to pay off his manageable price tag this week.
Keep Feeding The Beast
Outside of evaluating the matchup for a particular running back, another important aspect of RB selection, especially for cash games, is volume. One such running back who will dominate usage this week is rookie Ezekiel Elliott, who continues to produce despite a looming suspension. Entering Week 9 with a three consecutive 100+ yard games, Zeke should have no problems paying off his steep price against a Kansas City defense that ranks 31st in run defense DVOA this season while allowing the third most adjusted line yards in the NFL. This bodes well for the talented young running back, who has the luxury of running behind one of the league’s best offensive lines in a game that should feature plenty of offense.
Reliable QB With Great Matchup
Ownership among quarterbacks has been very spread out for much of this season, with many trying to save at the position in an effort to load up on other roster positions. One quarterback who has shown the upside to burn those that choose to fade him is Drew Brees, who will look to bounce back from a subpar performance against the Bears last week. Known for his drastic home/road splits, Brees draws a gorgeous home matchup against a banged up Tampa Bay secondary that ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA this season. He won’t be cheap, but with plenty of mouths to feed in an unpredictable offense, paying up for Brees takes the frustration of sacrificing salary at your skill positions in the event the Saints opt to spread the ball around during this contest, making him a solid overall option to target in a game that should play at a very fast pace.
Colts CB Vontae Davis (non-injury related) ruled out for Sunday
Davis didn’t travel with the team to Houston and has been ruled out for tomorrow’s game against the Houston Texans due to a non-injury related issue. The Colts will have Rashaan Melvin active and back in action this week, so the unavailability of Davis should be much easier to overcome from a depth standpoint for this defense that is surrendering the most yards per attempt in the entire league. However, with DeShaun Watson out for the remainder of the year with a torn ACL, it’s still tough to get behind Tom Savage and the season-high price points of DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, even as leverage plays in large-field tournaments on Sunday’s main slate of games.
As reported by: Adam Schefter via Twitter
Bengals sign K Marshall Koehn
The Cincinnati Bengals announced Saturday that they have signed kicker Marshall Koehn, signaling Randy Bullock’s back injury may be more serious than the team originally realized. Unfortunately, the Bengals are likely to have the worst game script of any team on Sunday against the stingy Jacksonville Jaguars defense, which essentially eliminates Koehn from daily fantasy consideration, that is, if he is even available to be rostered anywhere around the industry.
As reported by: Adam Schefter via Twitter Other tagged players: Randy Bullock Kenny Golladay (hamstring) returns to practice Saturday
Golladay participated in the Detroit Lions’ practice on Saturday morning, the first time he has practiced the entire week. He was spotted running routes but the rookie wideout is still likely to be inactive when the Lions take on the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football. His presumed absence will mean that Golden Tate will continue to be utilized as Detroit’s primary pass catcher out the slot and won’t see his target share reduced for at least one more week, though his matchup with Packers safety, and likely slot corner, Morgan Burnett is less than ideal, as Burnett was ranked as the 14th-best safety by Pro Football Focus prior to missing two consecutive games with hamstring injury and appears on track to return on Monday night.
As reported by: Michael Rothstein via Twitter Still Getting A Discount On This TE Despite A Price Hike
Doyle should rule again in Week 9 against the Texans, and I am locking him into cash games on DraftKings despite the price tag rising all the way up to $4,300. It is as clear as day that quarterback Jacoby Brissett has tunnel vision for Doyle, as he has seen 14, 7, and 11 targets in the last three weeks alone. Since Brissett took over the job in Week 2, Doyle has commanded a 26% market share of targets. That leads all tight ends in that timeframe. So despite the big price increase, you could easily make the case that we are actually still getting a nice discount on Doyle considering he is the eighth most expensive tight end on the DraftKings Main slate. Doyle is a lock for me in cash games on DraftKings and is one of the better overall point per dollar plays on the entire slate that isn’t a quarterback.
Lock In This WR In Cash Games, Especially On FanDuel
I think the best way to get exposure to the Saints passing game in cash games across the industry is via Michael Thomas at only $7,600 on FanDuel and $7,200 on DraftKings. Save for the Week 6 game against the Lions, Thomas has been remarkably consistent in the past six games. His FanDuel scores in that timeframe have been 11.2, 11.7, 2.6, 18.9, 18.2, and 11.4. This is due in large part to the fact that he is by far the favorite target of Drew Brees. His 25% market share of targets leads Saints pass catchers by a decent margin, as Alvin Kamara is next in line at only 17%. The matchup against Tampa Bay doesn’t get much better either, as they rank 31st in pass defense DVOA. You could easily make the argument that Thomas has the highest projection of any wide receiver on both sites’ Main slate, yet he is only the ninth most expensive on FanDuel and fifth most expensive on DraftKings. He is a lock for me in cash games, especially on FanDuel.
I Appeal To You To Play This RB In Cash Games On FanDuel
I don’t know a lot about court injunctions, but I do know that Zeke is now eligible to play in Week 9 in a cake matchup against Kansas City. Through eight weeks, the Chiefs defense ranks 31st in rush defense DVOA. The last elite running back they saw was Le’Veon Bell in Week 6, and he proceeded to drop 26.6 FanDuel points on them. Zeke just continues to rack up touchdowns, as he has the fourth most rushing attempts (7) in the league inside the five yardline according to Pro Football Reference. The only other Cowboy to attempt a rush inside the five is Dak Prescott. For a team with the second highest total on the board this weekend (28 points), it seems like a safe bet that Zeke finds the end zone at least once in Week 9. And when you factor in his pass game involvement, that makes Zeke an ideal pairing with Ingram in cash games on FanDuel.
Back to the Well Again
I wrote up Jimmy Graham last week and I’m doing it again this week. He finally had his breakout game last week against the Texans, yet they only raised his price $400 for Week 9. Graham gets one of the best matchups you can get as a TE, as the Skins are ranked 28th in DVOA vs. the TE, and nearly 25% of opposing targets are given up to the position. Graham is consistently getting 5-7 targets on a week-to-week basis, and with the Seahawks completely giving up on the running game, we can expect them to be airing out the ball early and often in this matchup. Every year, the Seahawks passing game and offensive line seem to put it together in the second half of the season and start putting up numbers similar to the best offenses in the league. Don’t miss the boat. Jump on them in this spot and use the biggest beneficiary of the renewed focus on the pass by rolling with Graham.
Dude’s Gonna Get a Whole Lot of Targets
In case you were living under a rock last week, Doyle had himself a monster game with 33 DK points. The Colts are using him more and more in the offense this year, which is evident by his 22 receptions from running routes as a WR or out of the slot (third most in the NFL for TEs). This week he draws a matchup against the Texans, and although they rank third in DVOA vs. the TE position, they also give up the highest percentage of targets in the league to tight ends (around 28% of opposing offensive targets are to the TE). Doyle has the most targets on the season of any TE not named Ertz or Kelce and received 14 last week. Indy is a seven-point underdog in this matchup, so we can expect them to be throwing often, and Doyle should be the biggest beneficiary.
Fumbles Schmumbles
A lot has been made this week about Ingram’s two lost fumbles last week, but I will be going back to the well in cash games on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I just find it very hard to believe that Sean Payton will suddenly turn the backfield over entirely to Alvin Kamara. Sure, the fumbles were costly, but what Ingram has done over the past three weeks following the Adrian Peterson trade far outweighs that. Starting with the most recent game last week, he has recorded 24, 26, and 30 touches. He turned those touches into 14.9, 19, and 27.5 FanDuel points. If the price were a little more expensive, perhaps we would be having a different discussion. But he is a minimum of a $1,000 discount on FanDuel and $500 on DraftKings from the likes of Ezekiel Elliott, Kareem Hunt, and Todd Gurley. He is one of my favorite point per dollar high end running backs on both Main slates, and someone I will be plugging into cash games.