DFS Alerts
Sterling Shepard active Week 9; several notables out
Shepard will make his return following a two-game absence due to an ankle injury. It’ll be his first game as the Giants top receiver. If he remains in the slot, he’ll have one of the tougher matchups against Rams CB Nickell Robey-Coleman. Although he’s 30th in PFF cover grades, he’s allowing the second-fewest yards per cover snap when lined up inside (0.47) and he’s posted the fifth-best cover snaps per reception rate (13.3). So far this season, quarterbacks have targeted his coverage just 14 times, the third-fewest among qualifying slot corners. Overall, the Rams are holding receivers to the seventh-fewest PPR points. It won’t get much easier for tight end Evan Engram as he’ll face a defensive unit giving up the fourth-fewest PPR points to his position. Based on fantasy production allowed, the Rams have become a major run-funnel unit. Only San Francisco is permitting more PPR points to RBs and they’re tied with the Colts for the most rushing touchdowns per game (1.0/g). Unfortunately, the Giants backfield is a bit murky. Last week Wayne Gallman led the group in snaps but logged just 22 while Orleans Darkwa (21) and Shane Vereen (16) were close behind and Darkwa out-touched Gallman 12 to 7. Darkwa should get the first crack to establish the hot hand but they’ll likely end up employing a committee, making it hard to trust this group in a very favorable spot. Paul Perkins has been removed from the injury report and he’s active for the game, complicating things further. The Giants had several notables ruled out after not practicing all week: LB BJ Goodson (ankle), RT Justin Pugh (back), C Weston Richburg (concussion), DE Olivier Vernon (ankle), and DE Kerry Wynn (knee). all of them are potential starters. Wynn has been filling in for Vernon for the past few games, his absence leaves the Giants thin on the edge.
Other tagged players: New York Giants
Jeremy Hill, John Ross, Tyler Boyd, and K Randy Bullock inactive Week 9; Joe Mixon will start in place of HIll
Reporters believe Hill suffered some type of injury during warm-ups while Ross is a healthy scratch in favor of receiver Josh Malone, who will now serve as their WR3. Mixon had already secured the lead running back role but Hill’s absence should provide him more snaps and touches against a Jaguars unit that ranks 32nd in rush DVOA and adjusted line yards. Their poor efficiency hasn’t turned into a ton of fantasy production for RBs though, they find themselves in the middle of the pack, checking it at 15th in PPR points allowed to the position. The Bengals will continue to focus on A.J. Green in the passing game but it’s a difficult matchup as the Jaguars are first in pass DVOA and they’ve limited receivers to the fewest PPR points this season.
Other tagged players: Joe Mixon, A.J. Green Leonard Fournette ruled out for Week 9; Chris Ivory will start in his place
Fournette has been suspended by the Jaguars for violating a team rule. Ivory will start in his place as he did last game. The running back ended up garnering 17 carries and scored in that contest but only managed 47 yards against a weak Colts run defense. T.J. Yeldon was more impressive, racking up 122 rushing yards on nine carries and he added two receptions for 15 yards. There were some rumblings Yeldon could supplant Ivory as the number two back following the game, so Ivory isn’t necessarily a lock for volume this afternoon.
Other tagged players: Chris Ivory, T.J. Yeldon Zach Ertz ruled out Week 9; CB Ronald Darby inactive
The tight end suffered a setback with his hamstring injury in warmups this morning, forcing the Eagles to rule him out of their Week 9 matchup with the Broncos. It’s a great spot for tight ends as the Broncos are funneling fantasy points to TEs, allowing the third-most PPR points per game to the position compared to the fifth-fewest to WRs. With a solid cornerback group covering the Eagles receivers, quarterback Carson Wentz may look for Trey Burton and Brent Celek often. The former has been more productive as a pass-catcher, hauling in 9-of-10 targets for 70 yards and score compared to Celek’s 4/7/33/0 line. Burton has run a route on 53% of his snaps while Celek has a 32% rate. On top of that, Burton has been used as a slot receiver on 55% of his routes as the Eagles prefer him in the passing game while Celek is a better blocker and lines up almost exclusively at tight end (95%). Burton appears to be the better bet to take advantage of the favorable matchup.
Other tagged players: Trey Burton, Brent Celek Windy conditions expected for WAS-SEA and BAL-TEN games
Seattle looks to be the worst game weather-wise as we’re expecting it to be a cold (40 degrees) and a little wet on top of sustained winds around 15-20 mph. It’ll be warmer for the Ravens-Titans tilt but we’ll likely see gusts around 25 mph. All four teams take a slight downgrade in their passing attacks, primarily on deep balls, and it’ll hinder outlooks for their respective kickers. Unsurprisingly, the coldest game this week will take place in Green Bay where the Packers host the Lions on Monday night. We’re anticipating 35 degrees weather at kickoff which will make it more difficult to make long field goals. Outside of those three games, the weather is pretty clear across the league.
Andre Ellington will play Week 9
He sat out last game with a quad injury but he’s ready to return this weekend against the 49ers. He’ll man the passing-down role for the Cardinals in a great spot for receiving running backs. The 49ers are allowing the most receiving yards (68.8), most receiving touchdowns (0.5), and fifth-most receptions per game to the position. Quarterback Drew Stanton may need to rely on Ellington as a safety valve throughout the game, providing the back a little GPP appeal in full PPR formats. The last time Ellington played San Francisco, back in Week 4, he hauled in nine receptions for 86 yards and added five carries for 18 on the ground. Adrian Peterson wasn’t on the team then but AP has little-to-no involvment in the passing game. Ellington is $3.8k on DraftKings with projected ownership of 1%.
As reported by: Adam Schefter Jay Ajayi will have a small package of plays Week 9
The runner just joined the team this week and needs to learn the system before he can carve out a sizable role. He’s off the fantasy radar in a limited role against the best rush defense in the NFL. The Broncos are first in rush DVOA, second in adjusted line yards (per FO), and they’re holding RBs to the fewest PPR points per game. LeGarrette Blount is expected to be the lead back and will likely pick up most of the work in scoring position. Still, on top of losing some plays to Ajayi, he’ll likely lose touches to Wendell Smallwood, who should also serve as the passing-down back. Based on expected volume and matchup, this backfield seems like one to avoid this week. The best play on paper is Zach Ertz. The Broncos are funneling fantasy points tight ends, allowing the third-most PPR points per game to the position compared to the fifth-fewest to receivers. Ertz has been on a tear all season and he’s now scored six touchdowns over the past six games. The volume hasn’t been there the past three weeks – he’s seen targets of six, six, and five – but that should tick back up with a stout cornerback group covering the Eagles receivers. He appears to be a solid contrarian tournament play on DraftKings this week where we’re projecting 5.0% ownership while most of the attention is expected to be on value options like Jack Doyle and Vernon Davis.
As reported by: Ian Rapoport Other tagged players: LeGarrette Blount, Wendell Smallwood, Zach Ertz Rob Kelley will have limited workload Week 9
Kelley (ankle) will play through a questionable tag but he’ll be limited against the Seahawks this afternoon, per Ian Rapoport. Chris Thompson has led the backfield in snaps the past four games, averaging 12.8 touches along the way. Given his typical involvement in the passing game, he’s an interesting volume-based PPR target with both Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed out. Those two have combined for a 33% market share of the team’s targets this season, opening up plenty of opportunities for the other pass-catchers like Thompson. The back had season-highs in snaps (47) and receptions (8) last week as the Redskins played from behind. Considering how well the Seahawks offense has played recently and the Redskins are on the road, Washington could get down early again, forcing quarterback Kirk Cousins to the air and providing Thompson plenty of snaps. However, Seattle poses a tough challenge for receiving backs. Not only are they third in DVOA, but they’re holding the position to the fewest receptions (4.0/g) and second-fewest yards (27.7) after facing solid receiving backs like Ty Montgomery, Todd Gurley, and Carlos Hyde – although they did give up a receiving TD to Lamar Miller last weekend (3/19/1 line). On top of that, Thompson is now priced at a season-high $6.1k on DraftKings, making him a little less appealing. Even with the injury situation and expected game flow, it may be difficult for him to crush his salary against this defense.
Other tagged players: Chris Thompson Jay Cutler will start Sunday night
There hasn’t been much doubt regarding Cutler’s status heading into the weekend and he’s going to start Sunday night against the Raiders. Cutler is in a good spot but he’s shown absolutely no ceiling to date and isn’t a strong play unless you’re willing to roll the dice in tournaments, where he makes some sense as a contrarian stacking partner with DeVante Parker or Jarvis Landry.
As reported by: Adam Schefter
Jameis Winston will start Sunday
Winston will start as expected. This is projected to be one of the more DFS friendly games of the weekend, but most of the intrigue lies on the NO side with Brees, Ingram, Thomas and Kamara all setting up as viable options against a leaky Tampa pass defense. DeSean Jackson may be the top target on the TB side given his stable allotment of targets and the fact that he’s likely to see a few deep looks against a defense that has been burnt by big plays in previous weeks. Mike Evans is likely to see a steady dose of Marcus Lattimore and the Saints have been relatively tough on TEs to date.
As reported by: Adam Schefter Both Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace set to play Sunday
Both Wallace and Maclin will suit up in a matchup with a defense that struggles against the pass, although Joe Flacco has yet to show any sort of ceiling to this point in the year. Maclin is particularly cheap on DraftKings and can be targeted there in any format if he’s active, but Wallace would step up as a strong punt play in the event that Maclin is unable to go. We’ll continue to track the situation leading up to kickoff.
As reported by: Adam Schefter Other tagged players: Mike Wallace Marqise Lee will play Sunday
No real surprise here, as Lee was expected to take the field all along. With Blake Bortles under center for a Jags team that is clearly unwilling to throw the ball more than 30 times unless they have to, Lee and the rest of the Jags pass catchers are best left alone in a middling matchup with the Cincinnati defense.
As reported by: Adam Schefter Martellus Bennett doubtful for Week 9
He’s looking unlikely to play on Monday night, setting up Lance Kendricks and Richard Rodgers to see an uptick in snaps and targets. Kendricks has been seeing a higher snap percentage between the two and is the better pass-catching option, so if you’re looking for a dart-throw GPP punt at TE, Kendricks is the more viable GB option. Neither has all that much appeal with Brett Hundley under center and Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb still vying for targets.
As reported by: Tom Silverstein Other tagged players: Lance Kendricks, Richard Rodgers Dede Westbrook not activated for Week 9
Westbrook is reportedly healthy, but he wasn’t activated in time to be eligible to suit up against Cincinnati. We’ll therefore see no change to the current Jags WR pecking order, unless of course Marqise Lee (questionable, but expected to play) ends up sitting out. The Jaguars aerial attack is still limited by Blake Bortles and the fact that they have no interest in throwing it more than 30 times unless they have to, so there isn’t much appeal here outside of Leonard Fournette against Cincinnati’s defense.
As reported by: Mike Kaye Other tagged players: Marqise Lee Jamison Crowder doesn't travel to Seattle, ruled out for Week 9
Crowder is not traveling with the team to Seattle, so he’ll be inactive on Sunday afternoon and will cede his snaps primarily to Ryan Grant. The Seahawks aren’t all that stout against slot receivers compared to how they defend other parts of the field, so Grant does have some GPP appeal as a near minimum priced punt on full point PPR sites. With Jordan Reed also out of action, Vernon Davis could end up being the biggest beneficiary, as he has next to no competition for snaps and should be a focal point in the middle of the field for Kirk Cousins. Chris Thompson could also see a slight uptick in targets and with him continuing to see at least a handful of carries each week, he’s still on the GPP radar in large-field formats.
As reported by: Adam Schefter Other tagged players: Ryan Grant, Vernon Davis, Chris Thompson