DFS Alerts
Lock In This QB For Cash Games
Russell Wilson is a lock for me in cash games across the industry in Week 9. It goes without saying that the Seahawks struggle to generate much on the ground, so Russ has to carry this offense with his arm (and occasionally with his legs, which raises his floor a bit). In the past five weeks alone, Russ has attempted 41, 39, 37, 26, and 49 passes. Per Evan Silva, he is on pace for a career high of 590 pass attempts. And when the Seahawks get inside the red zone, only Tom Brady (44) has more pass attempts than Russ (43). For a team that has the third highest team total on the slate, it is a good bet that Russ accounts for most, if not all, of his team’s touchdowns. Of Seattle’s 17 offensive touchdowns this season, Russ has thrown for 15 of them and run for another. Sign me up.
Don't Jump Off Now
With the Elliott news, I expect Dez to be lower owned than he should be this weekend. Kansas City is ranked 29th in DVOA against WR1s this season, and they’re allowing 112.7 receiving yards per game to WR1s. Marcus Peters is one of the best corners in the league, but they use him on his side of the field and don’t shadow with him. It creates great matchups on the other side of the field, and teams have been taking advantage of it all season. I expect the Cowboys to do the same thing this weekend with Dez. Dez has 13 red zone targets this season, which leads the NFL. His 28.44% Percentage of targets is the fifth most among wide receivers this season. I think Elliott opens up the passing game for Dak, and I love this combo even with Elliott playing.
I Have A Lot Of Upside At My DK Price
I think to think outside of the box for GPPs, and it leads me to some crazy plays. Wallace practiced in full on Friday, and should be active this weekend against Tennessee. He suffered a concussion early against Minnesota in week seven, and missed the Thursday night game against the Dolphins in week eight. The three weeks before that, Wallace had 18 targets, and had double-digit fantasy points in two of those games. We’re getting a wide receiver with a ton of upside, and he’s only $3,600 on DraftKings this weekend. The Titans rank 23rd in DVOA against the pass this season, and they’re allowing the second most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. They’re allowing 188.63 receiving yards and 14.88 receptions per game to opposing wide receivers. I think Flacco is sneaky, and I really like Wallace at his DK price this weekend.
I Have A Massive Opportunity Share
With Elliott playing now, I expect Gurley to be lower owned now, and his projected ownership has already dropped. The Giants run defense has only allowed the 14th most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, but they haven’t faced a lot of good running backs. Dallas and the Chargers ran for 105 yards against this defense, and Philly rushed for two touchdowns, which are the only two rushing touchdowns allowed this season. The Giants are 24th in DVOA against the run this season, and will be without Olivier Vernon this weekend. They’re also dealing with some injuries to linebackers, and could be very short handed on defense this weekend. Gurley is averaging 20.7 carries and 3.9 catches per game, and he’s averaging 131.5 yards from scrimmage per game this season. He has the second-highest opportunity share among running backs, which gives him a lot of upside in this matchup.
I Somehow Get To Play Again
Going into the week, no one expected to have Ezekiel Elliott, and now he’s a top option on the slate. I really like Dak and Dez, but I will have plenty of Elliott as well. He’s averaging 26.14 touches per game this season, and he’s averaging over 29 carries in the last three games. He’s a full workhorse right now, and with suspension looming, the Cowboys are giving him a ton of work. He’s averaging 4.21 yards per carry this season, and faces a Chiefs defense that’s allowing 107.18 rushing yards per game. This defense has done a good job of keeping running backs out of the end zone, but Elliott isn’t your typical running back. They’ve allowed a rushing touchdown in three straight games, and after seeing what Bell did to them a few weeks ago; I’m excited to play Elliott against them this weekend.
This Vegas Total Continues To Go Up
The game between Kansas City and Dallas opened at 48.5, and on Saturday morning, it’s at 53.5. I waited to do my write ups this week, and I’m glad I did. I wasn’t really interested in Alex Smith earlier this week, but the more research I do, the more I end up on Smith. Smith is attempting 32.4 passes per game this season, and he’s averaging 4.3 deep ball attempts per game this season. In 2016, he only attempted 46 deep balls all season, and he’s attempted 34 in eight games this season. Alex Smith is averaging 272.6 passing yards per game, and he’s second in passing yards this season. He has 16 touchdowns and zero interceptions this season. Dallas is allowing 278.35 passing yards per game this season, and an average of 1.59 passing touchdowns per game. With Elliott playing and the Cowboys offense at full strength, I think this game turns into a shootout, and I think Smith is a top three quarterback this weekend.
Kenny Golladay and LT Greg Robinson didn't practice Friday
Golladay was on track to return last week prior to re-aggravating his hamstring injury. If he can’t get back on the field by tomorrow, he’ll probably remain sidelined Monday night. If he can’t suit up, T.J. Jones would continue to operate as the WR3. He’s seen eight and nine targets over the past two weeks and managed to post his best game of the season against the daunting Steelers secondary with a 4/88/0 line. Even so, he’s only picked up four red zone targets this year and doesn’t carry too much upside behind Golden Tate and Marvin Jones. Robinson is PFF’s 71st tackle out of 74 qualifiers but his backup, Brian Mihalik has earned even worse marks. Detroit’s offensive line ranks dead last in adjusted line yards (3.04, per PFF) and they’ve been charged with the fifth-most pressures allowed (105). We’ll find out official injury designations tomorrow.
Other tagged players: Detroit Lions
Tyler Boyd ruled out for Week 9, Cody Core will play
Boyd hasn’t played since Week 5 and he hasn’t posted more than 15 receiving yards in any game this season. Core will add some depth at receiver, but the Bengals will continue to focus on A.J. Green and Brandon LaFell as their top two wideouts. Rookie John Ross is expected to eventually man the WR3 role but he’s only logged 11 snaps all season, earning just six in his first game back last week while picking up only one target. They visit the Jaguars on Sunday, whose defense is first in pass DVOA and has limited receivers to the fewest PPR points.
Other tagged players: Cody Core, A.J. Green, Brandon LaFell, Andy Dalton Andre Ellington questionable for Week 9
He sat out last game with a quad injury. If he’s able to play, he’ll man the passing-down role for the Cardinals this weekend. It’s a great spot for receiving backs. The 49ers are allowing the most receiving yards (68.8), most receiving touchdowns (0.5), and fifth-most receptions per game to the position. quarterback Drew Stanton may need to rely on Ellington as a safety valve throughout the game, providing the back a little GPP appeal in full PPR formats. He’s $3.9k on DraftKings with projected ownership of 2%.
49ers CB K'Waun Williams ruled out for Week 9
It’s his second missed game in a row. He’s their slot corner, so his absence will leave Leon Hall with Larry Fitzgerald, who just signed with the team ahead of last week’s game. Hall is 32 years old and most likely won’t pose a strong challenge for Fitzgerald. Unfortunately for the receiver, he’ll have Drew Stanton throwing to him. Stanton has a career completion percentage of 52.7% and has averaged 6.3 yards per attempt. He may rely on Fitzgerald quite a bit on short and medium routes but it’ll be hard for Fitzgerald to be efficient with those opportunities despite it being a favorable spot. He’ll likely see fewer scoring opportunities as the offense may struggle to move the ball with Stanton at the helm. The Cardinals currently have an implied total of 20.75 points in a game with a 39-point spread.
Other tagged players: Larry Fitzgerald Buccaneers CB Brent Grimes ruled out for Week 9, LB Kendell Beckwith and DE Robert Ayers questionable; CB Robert McClain will play
McClain has cleared the concussion protocol and he’s all set to return to the starting lineup this weekend following a one-game absence. With Grimes (shoulder) unable to suit up, it will likely leave McClain and Vernon Hargreaves on the outside against the Saints on Sunday. He should see Michael Thomas quite a bit this weekend. The receiver has commanded a 25% market share of the Saints targets and he’s efficiently hauled in 68% of those looks. He hasn’t broken out for any big games yet this season though; Thomas hasn’t topped 89 yards and he’s only scored twice through seven games. This could be the week though. The Saints are at home and the Buccaneers are allowing the most PPR points per game to WRs. He’ll also see Hargreaves, PFF’s 57th cover corner. Although the CB impressed last week, limiting Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess to a 1/9/0 line on six targets, he’s still allowing the 5th-most yards/cover snap this season (per PFF). This game has a total of 51.5 points and is just one of two above 46 this week.
C.J. Prosise will be a game-time decision Week 9, S Kam Chancellor and LB Bobby Wagner questionable; S Earl Thomas ruled out
Prosise was absent last week after re-aggravating his ankle injury in Week 7. Thomas Rawls ended up leading the group with 41 snaps but he returned -1 rushing yards and failed to haul in his lone target. As a result, the Seahawks are expected to start Eddie Lacy and give him a chance to earn the lead role. He’s only averaging 2.6 yards per carry this season behind an offensive line that ranks 28th in adjusted line yards (3.23). The Redskins pose a favorable matchup for runners as they’re 27th in adjusted line yards but Lacy could still lose early-down work to Lacy while J.D. McKissic and C.J. Prosise will take passing down snaps if Prosise suits up. Thomas is PFF’s eighth-ranked safety this season, so his loss is a big one for this defense. It could open up things deep for Kirk Cousins. He currently has the eighth-highest passer rating on balls thrown 20+ yards downfield (108.2) but he’s only attempted 23 such throws (21st). The emergence of Josh Doctson could encourage him to become more aggressive. So far, 25% of Doctson’s targets have been deep balls. He was second among the receivers with 47 snaps in Week 8, firmly out-snapping Terrelle Pryor for the second straight game as he’s supplanted him on the depth chart. On top of that, Jamison Crowder may be absent, providing another boost for Doctson. He’s still just $4.4k on DraftKings and makes for an interesting boom-or-bust GPP option. Even with Thomas playing last week, Deshaun Watson was able to dominate them deep, completing 7-of-10 passes 20+ yards downfield for 222 yards and two touchdowns.
Other tagged players: Seattle Seahawks, Josh Doctson Terrance West and Michael Campanaro ruled out for Week 9; Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace questionable
Per beat writer Jeff Zrebiec, coach John Harbaugh expects Collins to get more and more opportunities in the coming weeks. That would come at the expense of Buck Allen, who played a season-low 31 snaps in Week 8 to Collins’ 32. The running back was impressive on his way to 113 rushing yards on 18 carries (6.3ypc) against a Miami defense that ranked seventh in adjusted line yards (per FO) heading into the week. He leads the league with 6.0 yards per carry and now he’s getting a little involved in the passing game, a role once monopolized by Allen. On Thursday, Collins successfully hauled in both of his targets for 30 yards, showing the coaching staff his versatility. He’ll battle the Titans this weekend, whose defense is allowing the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game to RBs (81.4) but they’re 19th in adjusted line yards (per FO). At $4.6 on DraftKings this week, Collins could turn out to be a bargain if he ends up with an expanded role. Both Maclin and Wallace are expected to play this weekend. The Titans pass defense is allowing the third-most touchdowns to WRs this season (1.3/g) but quarterback Joe Flacco has only tossed multiple scores in one game. As a team, the Ravens are last in the league in yards per drive and 28th in points per drive (per FO). Not surprisingly, they have a low implied total of 19.75 points this week.
Other tagged players: Michael Campanaro, Javorius Allen, Alex Collins, Jeremy Maclin, Joe Flacco, Mike Wallace Colts CB Rashaan Melvin will play Week 9, LB John Simon ruled out
Melvin has been removed from the injury report following a one-game absence due to a concussion. He’s earned PFF’s 13th-best cover grade this season and he’s held receivers to a 57% catch rate. The corner will square off with Will Fuller the most on Sunday. Despite playing in just four games and only catching 13 passes, Fuller leads the league with seven receiving touchdowns. Of course, that was in large part due to Deshaun Watson playing out of his mind. We can’t expect the same type of production from the receiver with Tom Savage under center. The QB has a career completion rate of 60.0%, he’s averaged 6.2 yards per attempt – which would be good for 27th this season – and he’s never thrown a touchdown across seven appearances. The Colts are allowing the sixth-most PPR points to WRs but it’ll be challenging for Fuller to exploit the matchup with Watson out. Simon is PFF’s 22nd-ranked edge defender against the run and he logged the 11th-most run-stops at his position through his six full games this season. Even with him most of the season, the Colts are allowing the third-most PPR points to RBs this season. Houston may feed Lamar Miller more touches in an effort to hide Savage and he’s got a solid spot.
Other tagged players: Will Fuller, Lamar Miller Martellus Bennett isn't practicing Friday; S Kentrell Brice placed on IR
Bennett is dealing with a shoulder injury, the severity of which is not yet known. The tight end has received four or fewer targets in four of the past five games and he hasn’t found the end zone all year. With Brett Hundley under center, the whole offense takes a downgrade, leaving Bennett as a lackluster fantasy target if he plays. With the Packers playing Monday night, we won’t find out Bennett’s game status until tomorrow. Brice (ankle) had logged a ton of snaps the past couple of weeks with Morgan Burnett sidelined. He hasn’t performed well, earning PFF’s 78th saftey grade among 80 qualifiers. Burnett is on track to make his return from a two-game absence. He’s the 16th-ranked safety in coverage and tenth in run defense, per PFF grading. They love lining him up all over the field at safety, linebacker, and slot corner. Across 54 passing snaps, he’s only allowed two targets into his coverage.
Other tagged players: Green Bay Packers