DFS Alerts
This WR is Way Too Cheap
This price tag is just too cheap for a player of Hilton’s caliber. I know we usually want him when he is at home and that the Colts offense is hard to rely on, but I just can’t help myself. He has as much upside as any receiver outside the top five, and the matchup and game flow make this an interesting play. The Texans have been getting crushed by WRs, currently ranking 25th in the league. Watson and the Texans offense should go to town on the Colts, forcing them to throw the ball 40 plus times. Hilton should benefit more than anyone else in this spot (along with Jack Doyle). The recent numbers have been dreadful, but the targets have been there; he’s been getting seven to nine a week. Outside of two massive games earlier in the season, Brissett and Hilton haven’t been able to get on the same page. I think this game is one of those that will either be a dud, or one with plenty of fantasy goodness – that makes Hilton more than worth a GPP play at his price.
Let's Try This Again
Cam is another high risk, high reward play in an interesting spot this Sunday. Historically, he has been very good against the Falcons, but he has been inconsistent this season – a definite cause for concern. We have seen him show his high upside and ceiling in three nice games this season. We have also seen his struggles – like I said he’s a high risk, high reward play. If there is one thing that makes the play a bit safer, it’s how much Cam is running lately, as that raises his floor to the low double digits in fantasy points. Even in his awful games, he is usually at least in the low teens in fantasy points, and he hasn’t had less than double-digit fantasy points all season. I know we aren’t playing him for that – we want that ceiling game. Cam is an awesome GPP play and should have low ownership given his recent performances. I will only be using this play in game/mini-game stacks with the Falcons, but that is one of my favorite games to target, and Cam is the QB I want when going there.
This QB Ready to Shoulder the Load
I am curious where ownership will end up on Jameis this week after having been really bad last week and nursing a shoulder injury that seems to affect his passing ability. On the flip side, he’s still been able to throw for 300 yards or more four times, which has led to 20 plus fantasy points (this is out of seven games). This week he gets what used to be a dream matchup visiting the dome in New Orleans. The Saints defense is much improved – perhaps the best they’ve been since Brees has been their QB. Even with the defense improved, however, the Saints are still 18th against the QB position in fantasy points allowed, and they have had some easy matchups (for example, Brett Hundley making his first NFL start two weeks ago). This Jekyll and Hyde Bucs offense has massive upside, and with the Saints’ ability to put up points (and likely will against the Bucs defense), this should force him to throw 40 plus times. This makes his ceiling extremely high. There is definite risk here, but at his price (especially on DK), no one has more upside point per dollar. He is one of my favorite plays of the week.
Bills CB E.J. Gaines and Charles Clay ruled out for Week 9; S Jordan Poyer questionable
Poyer (knee) and CB E.J. Gaines (hamstring) were both inactive Sunday. It looks like Poyer, PFF’s third-ranked cover safety, will play Thursday night against the Jets which could hinder Robby Anderson’s ability to make big plays. The Bills may be without Gaines though. That will likely keep Shareece Wright on the outside. He allowed the seventh-most yards this past weekend (69) and if he had enough snaps to qualify, he would have the fourth-worst yards per cover snap (1.81 per PFF) and third-worst cover snaps per reception (7.0) this season. He’ll primarily battle Jermaine Kearse while Robby Anderson only runs 26% of his routes on the side Wright would be on. Anderson is coming off the best game of his season with 104 receiving yards and a touchdown. He’s going to see a lot of Tre’Davious White, who’s limited receivers to a 47% catch rate and earned the seventh-best cover grade from PFF. Anderson travels to the slot for 33% of his routes where he’ll see Leonard Johnson, who’s posted the third-worst cover snaps per reception rate (8.0) when inside. It’s possible McCown picks on Wright by sending more targets towards Kearse but he hasn’t passed his way more than five times over the past four weeks. Tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins could pick up a larger workload as well and the Bills have struggled to defend tight ends, ranking 19th in DVOA while allowing the ninth-most PPR points to the position. ASJ has seen five targets in back-to-back weeks but he hit 11 and eight in the two weeks prior and has scored three touchdowns over those four games. Jeremy Kerley is expected to be suspended which opens up a little over three targets per game for the other pass-catchers. Bills LG Richie Incognito will play. The 11th-ranked pass-blocking guard (per PFF) is a big reason why the Bills offensive line is sixth in pass blocking efficiency. They should be able to handle the Jets pass rush which currently ranks 27th in adjusted sack rate (per FO). Clay’s absence will leave Nick O’Leary in the TE1 role. After seeing six targets when he came in for the injured Clay against the Bengals, he’s been quiet with 2.5 targets per game. The Jets are allowing the eighth-most PPR points to tight ends though and the Bills top-targeted pass-catcher, LeSean McCoy tends to struggle on the road. On top of averaging 36.2 fewer rushing yards per game (63.2 away, 99.4 home) and 1.1 fewer rushing touchdowns since 2016 (0.2 away, 1.3 home), which could encourage the Bills to pass more, he averages 4.3 targets on the road compared to 5.2 at home. This could open up some opportunities for O’Leary Thursday night, making him a potential GPP option at his affordable $3.1k price tag.
Brock Osweiler will start for Broncos Week 9
Head coach Vance Joseph made it official, Osweiler will replace Trevor Siemian as the team’s starting quarterback in Philadelphia this weekend. Last season, Osweiler finished dead last in adjusted completion percentage (per PFF) and threw more interceptions (16) than touchdowns (15). His 5.8 yards per attempt was the lowest in the NFL and a full yard lower than Siemian’s current rate. Siemian only tossed three touchdowns over the past five weeks and was held to 207 yards or less on three occasions, so he certainly wasn’t helping guys like Demaryius Thomas. Based on Osweiler’s 2016 numbers, he isn’t an upgrade but perhaps his return to Denver will help him. Across eight appearances with at least 22 attempts in 2015, he averaged 7.2 ypa and threw more touchdowns (10) than interceptions (6). He only had two multi-touchdown games but he reached 296 yards or more three times. In those three outings, Demaryius Thomas received 12 or more targets, and he averaged 10.5 looks across all eight of Osweiler’s appearances. Emmanuel Sanders, who’s expected to return this weekend, played in seven of those games and averaged 8.0 targets while only hitting double-digits once. Whether Osweiler will continue to favor Thomas remains to be seen, but he appears to be the better bet, especially with Sanders coming off an injury. It’s possible Eagles CB Ronald Darby returns for this game, which could potentially make things harder for Thomas. Depending on how things shake out, Thomas could spend plenty of time battling Rasul Douglas, who’s allowed the 14th-most yards per cover snap (1.36), and Jalen Mills, who’s allowed the fourth-most total yards (426) and fifth-most touchdowns (4).
Other tagged players: Trevor Siemian, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders Pay up at Tight End
We have value at the running back and wide receiver spots this week, so Week 9 presents a good opportunity to pay up at tight end. Outside of Rob Gronkowski, who is on a bye, Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce have clearly been the class of the position this year. As luck would have it, they both draw fantastic matchups this week, too. Both Ertz and Kelce get to face teams that rank among the bottom six in the league in DVOA against tight ends, and Ertz faces a Broncos team that got obliterated by Kelce a week ago. I love both of them and will have exposure to each, as they clearly lap the field at the position this week.
Opportunity Knocks
It’s time for Devin Funchess to show us what he can do. Kelvin Benjamin has been shipped off to Buffalo along with his maddening inconsistency, and Funchess should be the clear-cut beneficiary of this trade. Prior to last week, Funchess had logged at least eight targets in five straight games, and he could be staring at double-figure targets on a weekly basis now. The price tag has yet to catch up for his recent production, so invest with confidence this week.
The Unsexy Texan
The glitz and the glamour and the headlines all belong to Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller, and DeAndre Hopkins — and they are certainly deserving of all the accolades they are getting. However, they have all been priced up to a massive extent this week, in a game where the Texans are massive favorites against a bad Colts team at home. This lines up as a game where they will be able to focus on their defense and running game a little bit more, and Miller has not been priced up like the other offensive weapons. Even though he wasn’t electric last week against Seattle, he still logged 24 touches and found the end zone twice while playing on 87% of the offensive snaps. If you want to fade the passing attack in GPPs, grabbing Miller and/or the Texans defense is a great way to double down on that.
Shootout in the Dome
I absolutely love this spot for the Saints passing game this week. Tampa Bay has been awful against the pass this season, ranking dead last in the league in DVOA in that department. They have also been ravaged by injuries in the secondary, and top corner Brent Grimes was unable to suit up a week ago. Especially if he is held out again, Tampa Bay will have no answers for Drew Brees and company. This sets up as a possible 350+ yard, three touchdown day, and I will have massive exposure to Drew Brees and Michael Thomas this week.
Leonard Fournette and Dede Westbrook will practice Wednesday; Marqise Lee won't participate
Lee has missed practices frequently this season but hasn’t missed a game yet. Westbrook was placed on the IR at the start of the season after undergoing core muscle surgery – he’s eligible to return to the active roster this week, although he probably won’t have a huge role right out of the gates. Fournette is fully expected to return from a one-game absence due to an ankle injury following Jacksonville’s Week 8 bye. They face the Bengals in Week 9, whose defense ranked sixth in rush DVOA heading into the weekend but 26th in adjusted line yards (4.44). Old man Frank Gore averaged 5.1 yards per carry against them in Week 7 and Le’Veon Bell racked up 134 total rushing yards a week prior – although he posted 3.8 ypc. Before taking a week off, Fournette delivered the two best games of his career in Weeks 5 and 6, scoring three touchdowns while picking up 322 total yards. Jacksonville is running more than any other team in the league (53.1%) and they’ll likely continue to employ a run-heavy approach as much as they can. The Jaguars are currently 4.5-point home favorites in this one.
Other tagged players: Marqise Lee, Dede Westbrook Ezekiel Elliott's request for emergency injunction was denied, he'll be suspended six games
Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris are expected to take over the majority of the running back duties, although it isn’t clear which one has the edge yet. Jerry Jones said Rod Smith will have a role as well. Hopefully, we’ll learn more about what the Cowboys plan to do with their backfield as the week progresses. In the story that never ends, there is still an outside chance the NFLPA’s appeal of this decision will allow him to stay on the football field, we’re expecting a decision on that tomorrow evening.
Other tagged players: Darren McFadden, Alfred Morris, Rod Smith Bills acquired Kelvin Benjamin from Panthers
In another huge trade at the deadline, the Bills have brought in Benjamin to beef up their receiving corps that hasn’t been very productive this season. It’s not yet clear if he’ll be able to suit up on such short notice for their Thursday night game against the Jets but when he is ready to play, he should be in line for a sizable workload as their top receiver. Back in Carolina, Devin Funchess will operate as the Panthers WR1 going forward. Prior to Week 8, he had strung together five straight games with eight or more targets with Benjamin playing alongside him. He could become a target monster with Benjamin gone and Greg Olsen sidelined. They’ll take on the Falcons in Week 9 and Funchess may see Desmond Trufant for most of his routes, unless his pre-snap alignment changes in Benjamin’s absence. Although Trufant has had an issue with touchdowns – he’s allowed the fifth-most (4) – he’s tenth in yards per cover snap (0.76). Funchess will need Cam Newton to step up to be effective though; the quarterback is 20th in adjusted completion percentage and he’s only had three multi-touchdown games.
Other tagged players: Devin Funchess Jets acquired CB Rashard Robinson from 49ers
It’s not clear what they gave San Francisco in return for the corner. The Jets were ranked 23rd in pass DVOA heading into Week 8, so they’ve decided to bring in Robinson for support at corner. The second-year player is PFF’s 99th cover corner but he’s 26th in yards per cover snap (0.91) and he’s limited receivers to an impressive 44.7% catch rate. He’s allowed some big plays though, and he’s been charged with the ninth-most touchdowns (3). With Morris Claiborne on the doubtful side of things and Buster Skrine questionable with a concussion, Robinson could have a role right away.
Other tagged players: San Francisco 49ers Giants CB Janoris Jenkins suspended for Week 9
Jenkins apparently violated team rules so they’ve banned him for this weekend’s game against the Rams. His absence will provide a boost for Jared Goff and the Rams passing attack. The second-year QB hasn’t been very accurate this season; he’s posted five games with completion percentages between 46.8-59.5% and ranks 29th in adjusted completion percentage. The Giants have limited quarterbacks to the 11th-lowest completion rate (60.2%) but they rank 21st in DVOA and their efficiency should take a hit with Jenkins off the field. Although Goff has only delivered two multi-touchdown games, he has a good shot to pick up his scoring production as the Giants have given up the fourth-most passing TDs (14). Overall, New York has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to QBs with Jenkins starting all but one game this season.
Other tagged players: Jared Goff Jets CB Morris Claiborne didn't practice again Tuesday, CB Buster Skrine limited
Claiborne was successfully shutting down Julio Jones in shadow coverage on Sunday until he went down with a foot injury in the third quarter. Naturally, Jones immediately reeled in a 53-yard grab as soon as Claiborne hobbled off. Claiborne was diagnosed with a “sore foot” and it appears to be a pain tolerance thing. Still, he’s got a short week to recover as the Jets host the Bills on Thursday night and he’s missed two practices in a row. Slot corner Buster Skrine was inactive Sunday with a concussion and he’s in danger of missing Week 9 as well and he remains in the protocol. The absence of both Claiborne and Skrine would set up a solid spot for Tyrod Taylor, who’s typically worse on the road, and his pass-catchers. Receivers Andre Holmes, Zay Jones, and Jordan Matthews all caught exactly three passes in Week 8. Matthews could benefit from Skrine’s absence inside but he hasn’t seen more than five targets in any game this season. Although the potential lack of Jets corners could help the Bills receivers’ effectiveness, the Raiders were also banged up in the secondary and LeSean McCoy led the team with seven targets. He continues to pace the team with 46 targets and 38 receptions. Since 2016, the running back has struggled to run the ball on the road though, averaging 63.2 rushing yards per game compared to 99.4 at home. Heading into Week 8, the Jets ranked 22nd in rush DVOA (per FO) and the Falcons picked up 140 yards on the ground against them on 32 carries. McCoy should remain active in the passing game, if he can overcome his road running splits, he’ll be in great shape.