DFS Alerts
Stefon Diggs was a full participant in Thursday's practice
Diggs appears to be on track to return from a two-game absence, although he could come down to a game-time decision on Sunday. If he’s able to suit up, he could be shadowed by Jason McCourty (ankle, questionable) which presents a difficult matchup on the surface. The cornerback is having a renaissance year in Cleveland after a few down seasons and finishing in the bottom 18 in yards per cover snap and cover snaps per reception with the Titans in 2016. In 2017, he’s found himself as PFF’s third-ranked cover corner, although that grade may be a bit inflated due to his three interceptions – great production in real life, but worse for QBs than WRs in fantasy. In terms of receiver production, he’s 35th in yards per cover snap and 39th in cover snaps per reception while allowing a 65.5% catch rate. Essentially, this appears to be a case where his PFF grade doesn’t mean he’s a shutdown corner to fear in DFS. The Browns may have one of those in slot corner Briean Boddy-Calhoun though. Despite playing all seven games, he’s only been targeted an absurdly-low five times, allowing him to lead the league with 0.1 yards per cover snap and 54.5 cover snaps per reception. He was forced to the outside a little more than normal with McCourty out against the Titans last week but he still defended 18 routes in the slot. Eric Decker, who worked into his coverage on the outside and in the slot, finished with a blank sheet with just two targets. That sets up a daunting challenge for Adam Thielen this weekend whether Diggs is in or not. Tight end Kyle Rudolph could see an uptick in targets if Diggs remains sidelined and he’ll have the best matchup of the bunch with the Browns giving up the second-most PPR points to his position this season.
Steelers DL Stephon Tuitt ruled out for Week 8
It’ll be Tuitt’s second straight absence due to a back injury. He’s a huge part of the Steelers pass rush. He’s PFF’s fourth-ranked interior defender in the area while Tyson Alualu, who’ll pick up more snaps again this week, checks in at 102nd. Fortunately, they’ll still have Cameron Hayward, who’s second at his position with 31 total pressures and five sacks. He should be able to maintain his production against a Lions offensive line that ranks 29th in pass blocking efficiency.
Other tagged players: Matthew Stafford Increased Targets Coming For This WR
Pittsburgh isn’t normally a secondary I would look to pick on, with the Steelers leading the league in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game (147.0) and Yards Per Attempt (5.6). The injury situation in the Lions WR group could cause me to make an exception, however. Team target leader Golden Tate could miss this week with a shoulder injury, putting his 8 targets per game up for grabs. Teammate Marvin Jones could be the beneficiary, after breaking out for his best game of the season in the team’s last game with 6 catches for 96 yards and a touchdown in Week 6. Priced at only $6,100 on FanDuel and $5,500 on DraftKings, coming off of a bye week and his best game of the season, and with an increased target share coming his way, Jones could be an overlooked bargain this week.
Panthers LB Luke Kuechly is practicing again Thursday
Kuechly remains in the concussion protocol but he’s practicing for the second straight day and appears to be on track to play this Sunday against the Bucs. PFF’s sixth-ranked LB would provide a nice boost for the already-strong Panthers rushing defense. Even without Kuechly against the Bears in Week 7, they held Jordan Howard to 65 rushing yards on 21 attempts. As a team, they’re fifth in rush DVOA while their line ranks eighth in adjusted line yards (3.78). Not surprisingly, they’ve given up the seventh-fewest PPR points to RBs this season. Doug Martin, who recorded a season-high 22 touches last week, will have his work cut out for him against this group – it’ll be even tougher if Kuechly suits up.
Josh Doctson expected to start ahead of Terrelle Pryor Week 8
ESPN’s John Keim believes “it’s likely” the Redskins will start Doctson ahead of Pryor against Dallas this weekend. The former out-snapped the latter 54 to 30 in Week 7 and finished with a 3/5/39/0 line. Coach Jay Gruden said he’d “try to play the hot hand” at receiver, so Doctson would need to perform well to stay in the game – in other words, his snaps are far from secure. He’ll primarily battle Cowboys CB Anthony Brown, who’s allowed the fifth-most touchdowns this season (4) but has also posted the 18th-best yards per cover snap rate. Doctson has shown his touchdown-catching ability, pulling down a score in two separate games despite playing limited snaps, including a contested 52-yard bomb against Raiders CB David Amerson. The Cowboys are allowing the seventh-most PPR points to receivers and rank 20th in pass DVOA (per FO), setting up a nice spot for Doctson if he gets enough playing time. At $3.9k on DraftKings, he’s an interesting GPP option.
Other tagged players: Terrelle Pryor Volatile QB Could Put Up Big Score in Divisional Showdown
Cam Newton has had a rollercoaster season, pairing three games with more than 23 DraftKings points with three games with under 12 DraftKings points. This tells me that when the matchup is in his favor, such as Newton’s Week 4 game against New England’s last-ranked pass defense, he can still put up big numbers like his 360 total yards and 4 touchdowns (three passing, one rushing). Newton gets another nice matchup this weekend, facing Tampa Bay and their defense which is 30th in passing yards per game allowed and 29th in yards-per-attempt. Newton could fly under the radar this weekend as a road underdog and as only the 8th-most expensive QB on FanDuel and the 6th-most expensive on DraftKings, he has the potential to put up the biggest score this weekend.
Patriots LB Dont'a Hightower is out for the season with a torn pec
The linebacker suffered the injury Sunday night while trying to tackle Devonta Freeman. When Hightower was out for two games earlier this year, New England played more traditional four-man fronts with Adam Butler in at defensive end. He’s earned a poor grade this season from PFF but he’s posted a higher pass rushing productivity rate (7.4) than Malcolm Brown (4.7) and Lawrence Guy (6). As a unit, the defensive line is 21st in adjusted sack rate (21st, per FO). They’ll take on one of the weaker offensive lines this weekend when they play the Chargers though, who rank 27th in pass blocking efficiency.
Bargain QB Faces Weak Passing Defense at Home This Sunday
The Colts passing defense has been an issue all year, allowing 300.7 passing yards per game, second-most in the NFL this season. They even got shredded by Blake Bortles and a Leonard Fournette-less Jaguars squad last weekend. This week Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals get to face the Colts at home, and depending on the game script, Dalton could be a major bargain at $5,700 on DraftKings and $7,600 on FanDuel. While there is some concern that the Bengals could go heavy on the run if they get out to a big lead early, Dalton has attempted at least 27 passes in every game this season, and his connection with receiver AJ Green remains strong with Green currently second in the league with 545 receiving yards and 12th with 57 targets.
Elite QB in Bargain Price Territory
Philip Rivers is fifth in the league in passing yards, seventh in passing touchdowns, and this week he is facing a New England defense that has allowed the most passing yards in the league this season. Yet for some reason he is the 16th-most expensive QB on FanDuel, and the 11th-most expensive on DraftKings. The Patriots – Chargers matchup this weekend has the second highest over/under on the slate, and while the Chargers are 7-point underdogs, that could mean even more passing for Rivers if the Chargers are in catch-up mode. With a bargain price and the continued emergence of tight end Hunter Henry as a receiving threat opposite wide receiver Keenan Allen, Rivers could be the best points-per-dollar play on the slate this weekend.
Everyone Saw It, But No One Is Looking
As laid out in the Week 8 NFL Edge, there are a lot of reasons to believe that the Patriots will attack on the ground once again this week, as the Chargers rank 27th in run defense DVOA and 31st in yards allowed per carry, but eighth in pass defense DVOA and 12th in yards allowed per pass attempt. A run-heavy approach will further benefit the Patriots by protecting their defense and keeping Philip Rivers off the field. While it is impossible to know for certain how the Patriots will attack, and how they will deploy their running backs, Dion Lewis did well last week running between the tackles against the Falcons, and it is reasonable to expect a similar setup in Week 8. He will likely need a touchdown in order to pay off, and he is not a guy I am building around, but his upside is high enough and his price is low enough to justify him as a deep tourney play in Week 8.
Cheap Quarterback? Check! Low Ownership? Check!
Analysis coming soon.While the Philadelphia Eagles have faced only 96 running back rush attempts this season (an incredibly low 13.7 per game), they have faced the most pass attempts in the NFL, and have allowed the third-most yards and the eighth-most touchdowns through the air. Last week, we had reason to be interested in rookie C.J. Beathard in a likely shootout against a pass-soft Cowboys defense. While Beathard failed to produce through the air, I am comfortable going right back to the well this week in tourneys. He is going to struggle with his downfield accuracy and with his ability to feel/evade the rush in the pocket, but he is also a guy who has a live arm and some good weapons in a Shanahan-schemed offense, in a good matchup, with tons of volume. Take the floor/ceiling Brian Hoyer has shown this year and apply it to Beathard in this spot. It will not surprise me if he lands at six or seven points, but it also will not surprise me if he lands at 25 points at a low price and near-zero ownership – making him a really intriguing tourney piece.
This Tight End is Finally Getting the Snaps and the Targets
It finally appears that there has been a changing of the guard in San Diego. Over the last three weeks, Hunter Henry has out-snapped Antonio Gates 160-96. During that stretch, Henry has caught 12 of his 20 targets for 205 yards and a touchdown. The Chargers figure to be trailing this week against the Patriots, which should lead to a pass-heavy approach. If New England sells out to stop Keenan Allen, Henry could be in for a nice outing at a very reasonable ownership.
Could this be the Week to Pay up at Wide Receiver?
There are two receivers that I want to force into my lineups this week and they are two of the most expensive of the slate. The first is A.J. Green, who takes on a shaky Colts’ secondary at home. The second is Julio Jones, who finally broke out last week against the Patriots, catching nine passes for 99 yards and a grown-man touchdown. The Falcons continue to say that they need to get Jones the ball more and maybe they have finally learned their lesson. The Jets have a decent defense, but they don’t have any elite cornerbacks. Even if they did, I’ll take my chances with Julio any day of the week. As long as the targets come his way, I like his chances to post another big fantasy outing.
Lock this Running Back into your Cash Game Lineups
LeSean McCoy is one of the few true workhorse running backs left in the NFL. He plays most of the snaps, sees 25 touches a game, and is arguably the Bills best pass catcher now that Charles Clay is out. Before last week, he was a candidate for positive touchdown regression and that certainly came to fruition against the Buccaneers, as he scored two touchdowns on the ground. This week he squares off against a Raiders’ defense that is ranked 20th in DVOA against the run and 25th at defending pass-catching running backs out of the backfield.
This Quarterback has a Plethora of Weapons and a Favorable Matchup
Ownership at quarterback is generally spread out, but with a smaller slate this week, I expect many to gravitate to Carson Wentz. He’s obviously a strong play, but Kirk Cousins has just as much upside and could come with half the ownership. He is facing a Cowboys’ defense that is ranked 20th in DVOA against the pass. They are also ranked 30th in DVOA against pass-catching running backs (cue Chris Thompson) and 31st in DVOA against tight ends (cue Jordan Reed). In his last two games against Dallas, Cousins threw for 364 yards and a touchdown and 449 yards and three touchdowns.