DFS Alerts
Bills CB E.J. Gaines, S Jordan Poyer, and LG Richie Incognito didn't practice again Thursday
Gaines (hamstring) and Poyer (knee) are both considered week-to-week and it looks like they’re trending towards missing Buffalo’s game against the Raiders this weekend. If Gaines ends up missing time, it would likely force Shareece Wright into the starting lineup. That’s great news for Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Since Gaines first suffered the injury in Week 4, Wright has been earning more snaps and he’s allowed 14 completions on 18 targets. Despite only starting in one of the three weeks and playing 57% of the defensive snaps, he allowed the third-most receptions and second-most yards per cover snap. Incognito is dealing with an ankle issue but it’s not expected to keep him sidelined on Sunday, coach Sean McDermott said they’re holding him out to be safe. The 11th-ranked pass-blocking guard (per PFF) is a big reason why the Bills offensive line is seventh in pass blocking efficiency. They should be able to handle the Raiders pass rush which currently ranks 27th in adjusted sack rate (per FO).
Other tagged players: Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree
Perhaps The Most Consistent TE Not Named Ertz Or Gronk
This is my favorite TE play of the week, as people will be scared off by the success of O.J. Howard last week and many will pay up for Jordan Reed, who is similarly priced to Brate. Even with Howard’s big game, Brate still had six catches for 60 yards on nine targets, and he has been the model of consistency this season with double digit FPTS in all but one of his games this season. We know how Winston likes to use his TEs and we can expect near double-digit targets again this week against a Carolina defense that will likely be missing star linebacker Luke Keuchly. The Panthers struggle against TEs when he is out, so if he sits, just load up on Brate in GPPs.
This TE Is No Dog
Tight end is interesting this week, and I’m not overly interested in many cheap TEs, but Kittle offers some major upside and he should be extremely low owned after he somehow only played 31% of snaps last week against the Cowboys. I am still trying to figure that one out, but I see it as an aberration rather than a trend. The Kittle/Beathard history (college teammates, friends, and roommates) is something people probably gave too much credence to, but I still think there is something there. I assume the 49ers will be playing from behind, which gives Kittle opportunity to put up fantasy numbers. I like pairing him with his QB in GPPs, and while the numbers don’t make the play too exciting, it is what won our boy Cal Spears a million dollars a few weeks ago. Of course that was with Hoyer at QB, but you get the point. I see this as a large-field GPP play, but it’s one I will be targeting given the expected low ownership for Kittle.
Emmanuel Sanders and DE Derek Wolfe aren't practicing Thursday, Cody Latimer is participating
Sanders has now missed two days in a row with an ankle injury and he’s trending towards the doubtful side of things for Week 8. If he can’t go, Bennie Fowler would remain in the starting role opposite Demaryius Thomas while Isaiah McKenzie and Latimer would be in line for more snaps – Latimer has missed the past three games but he’s on track to return. Thomas should receive a solid workload against the Chiefs in that scenario. It didn’t pan out that way in Week 7 as he struggled against Casey Hayward and the Chargers to a 2/6/9/0 line. Fortunately for him, he should have an easier matchup this time around as he should avoid Marcus Peters’ coverage most of the night. He’ll primarily square off with Terrance Mitchell, PFF’s 81st-ranked cover corner.
Other tagged players: Denver Broncos Buccaneers CB Brent Grimes and CB Robert McClain aren't practicing Thursday
Tampa Bay could be without their top two corners this weekend. McClain is in the concussion protocol; he was present at practice but wasn’t participating early on. Beat writer Greg Auman believes it’s unlikely he suits up this weekend if he doesn’t get cleared from the protocol later today. Grimes remains hopeful he can play against the Panthers, he’s dealing with a shoulder injury. The Bucs moved the poor-performing Vernon Hargreaves to the slot last weekend against the Bills, pulling McClain to the outside. He actually performed well; he didn’t allow a reception on four targets, although the splint-wearing Jordan Matthews wasn’t the biggest threat. If McClain sits, it would likely force Hargreaves back to the outside to primarily battle Kelvin Benjamin. Last season, Benjamin averaged a 5.5/8.0/81.5/0.5 line against Hargreaves and the Bucs. So far this year, the corner has given up the fifth-most yards (404) and the fifth-most yards per cover snap (1.8) while allowing a 68.3% catch rate. Benjamin’s matchup would be much better if McClain and/or Grimes sit this weekend.
Other tagged players: Kelvin Benjamin This WR Is Ready To Hit The Big One
Jackson isn’t a super cheap option, but his price is too cheap for his upside. I am very interested in a spot where I think ownership will be above 10% against a Panthers defense that is 16th against WRs on the season. DJax hasn’t really hit that big play all year, yet he is still having a solid fantasy season, especially considering how bad so many WRs have been this season. The targets are there at just over seven a game, and if he can hit one of these big plays, we could see 25+ in this matchup with a Carolina team that especially struggles on the outside with home run hitting receivers. I think DeSean still has it, and while others may flock to Evans, I will be making a bit of a stand with Jackson. His workload has his floor high enough that he makes for an okay play in cash in this matchup, and he is a great GPP play due to the tremendous upside. I am looking at 30 to 40 percent DJax this week, and that number will probably increase unless value opens up by Sunday.
John Ross and CB Adam Jones practiced again Thursday; Tyler Boyd and Cody Core didn't participate
Ross has been a full participant for two days straight and Jones was upgraded to full this afternoon. Both are on track to suit up this weekend against the Colts. Ross has only played five snaps this season, so it’s hard to know what to expect from him – the rookie could be eased into action over the first few games upon returning. Undoubtedly, quarterback Andy Dalton will continue to pepper A.J. Green with targets. He’s currently commanding a 30.2% market share of the team’s targets and he’s third in the league with 2.63 yards per route run. He’ll primarily battle Rashaan Melvin this weekend if the Colts top CB plays. He was inactive last weekend with a concussion and QB Blake Bortles ripped Indy’s secondary for 330 yards on 26 attempts while he was sidelined. Melvin is PFF’s 12th-ranked cover corner while fellow outside CB, Vontae Davis, is 99th. If Jones returns, he could make things more difficult for Moncrief and Hilton on the outside – if he had enough snaps to qualify, he would be fifth in the league with 0.44 yards per cover snap.
Other tagged players: Tyler Boyd, Cody Core, Cincinnati Bengals, T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief Hard Not To Fell In Love With This WR
I am going way off the board this week here, especially with this play. While everyone and their mommas will be on A.J. Green, no one will play LaFell or the other Bengals receivers. It’s interesting because the targets for LaFell are going up (8 and 7 the past two weeks), he has a great matchup against the Colts, and we have seen his upside in the past with this offense. i don’t think you can look for much more than 15 to 20 FPTS, but in a week that is short of value, that may be good enough to allow us to pay up for some of the studs we want to roster. It is a high-risk, medium-reward play, but it’s a play I’m fond of given the lack of value out there. The Colts rank 26th in FPTS allowed to WR2s, and LaFell will be in about 20% of my lineups. If you want to go a different route at this price range, Jordan Matthews and JuJu Smith-Schuster make for nice GPP plays with upside.
Go Back To The Well With This Value QB
Beathard disappointed many in the industry and simply put did not look good, but he’s still put up over 30 fantasy points in his past two games. This is a longshot play that will have little ownership, but given the expected game script against an Eagles team that should run out to a lead, it’s a good spot for him. The Eagles secondary has a great front seven, but their secondary is just adequate in my opinion, and they rank just ahead of the Patriots as the second worst in the league in fantasy points allowed to the QB position. CJ can run a bit as well, which ups his floor (12 FPTS or so) and ceiling (probably 25 FPTS), and I can easily see him putting up 20+ FPTS here, even if it is largely due to garbage time production. It’s not the most exciting play with a lot of numbers to back it up, but the path is there for fantasy goodness. If you want to pair a receiver with him, I recommend going back to the well with George Kittle, who will be low-owned after disappointing last week. I am looking at 15% Beathard in GPPs this week and think he makes for a nice high-risk solid play on a point-per-dollar basis with some good upside.
Keep Attacking This Awful Defense
If San Diego has any chance of staying with New England, Rivers will be the reason. We know the Patriots will score on anyone and San Diego has a propensity for staying in every game going back all the way to when Rivers first joined the team. As usual, this year the Chargers have lost just one game by more than three points, and if that holds true for this game and it stays close, then it should be a monster opportunity for Rivers and the Chargers offense. Until last week, New England had arguably the worst defense in the league against both the run and pass. In fact, they still have allowed the most fantasy points to the QB position. I think they are better than what they had shown, but I don’t think they are as good as they looked against the Falcons. Rivers and the Chargers are another team that is much better than their record would indicate, and they have been improving week by week. New England will probably try to take away Keenan Allen, but this Chargers team has plenty of weapons to attack this Pats secondary. My favorite pairing for Rivers this week is Hunter Henry, but I also like Travis Benjamin and the rookie Mike Williams quite a bit. This play will be somewhat popular and doesn’t come without any risk, but I just can’t see Rivers killing you here. I expect him to get somewhere between 20 and 30 FPTS, making him a fine play in all formats. Gimino’s projected ownership will play a big role in deciding how much Rivers we want to use. For now, I’d like him in about 25% of my lineups, as the GPP upside is definitely there, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Rivers was the top QB this week.
Big-Play Wide Receiver Gets Excellent Matchup This Week
Like the rest of the Panthers offense, wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin has had an up-and-down season, following up promising games such as his 13-target, 9-reception, 99-yard game against Philadelphia in week 6 with duds such as his 6-target, 3-reception, 36-yard disappointment against Chicago last week. The passing attack has the opportunity to bounce back this week, however, facing a Tampa pass defense that is third-worst in the league allowing 295 yards per game, and fourth-worst allowing 8.2 yards per attempt. Although Benjamin has been out-targeted by teammate Devin Funchess this season 52-to-44, Benjamin has made the most of his looks with 29 catches for a team-leading 436 receiving yards.
Danny Amendola returned to practice Thursday
The receiver was just getting a maintenance day on his knees yesterday, something that will continue throughout the season. He’s got a tough matchup this weekend with the Chargers. They’re currently eighth in pass DVOA and they’re coming off a shutout victory over the Broncos. Amendola will primarily lineup across from Desmond King in the slot. While Casey Hayward and Trevor Williams are both among the top 11 cover corners by PFF grading, King is 43rd. When lined up inside, he’s 20th in yards per cover snap (1.32) and 26th in cover snaps per reception (7.8, per PFF). It provides the slot receiver the better matchup but he’s only played 47% of the snaps the past two weeks. Over that same period, Hogan has run 45% of his routes from the slot, so he may be able to avoid Williams’ coverage (Hayward is expected to shadow Cooks) a solid amount and take advantage of a more favorable matchup. He currently leads the team with ten red zone targets and five touchdowns.
Other tagged players: Chris Hogan, Brandin Cooks Excellent Matchup On Tap for One of the League's Best
A.J. Green is the second most expensive wide receiver on DraftKings at $8,600 and the third most expensive on FanDuel at $8,500, but he may have more upside than any other player at the position this week. Green already ranks second in the league with 545 receiving yards and ranks twelfth with 57 targets, and this week he gets a plus matchup against the Colts. The Indy pass defense has allowed the second most passing yards in the league, and are dead last in yards per attempt allowed at 8.9. The Bengals are 11-point favorites at home this week, with the fifth-highest implied point total at 25.75, meaning there is a good chance of at least one touchdown ending up in the hands of A.J. Green.
Eagles CB Ronald Darby and LB Mychal Kendricks are practicing Thursday
Darby is has a good chance to make his return this weekend against the 49ers after returning to practice last week. He’s only played 18 snaps this season after getting injured in the opening game but he’ll present an upgrade for a pass defense that’s allowing the fifth-most PPR points to receivers. If he suits up, it’s a downgrade for outside receivers Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin, although both players will get some run against Jalen Mills as well. Garcon has the advantage there as he’s running 52% of his routes on Mills’ side compared to 25% for Goodwin. The Eagles corner has allowed the most receptions (41), sixth-most yards (400), and fifth-most touchdowns (4) this season. Philly is funneling fantasy production to the opposing receivers and tight ends as they’re giving up the fewest rushing yards (42.0) and eighth-fewest PPR points to RBs. Last week, San Francisco had QB C.J. Beathard toss the rock 38 times as they played from behind and he could see a similar volume this weekend considering the 49ers are 13-point road dogs. With Darby back and slot corner Patrick Robinson having a phenomenal year, currently ranking in the top ten in yards per cover snap and cover snaps per reception when lined up inside (per PFF), Beathard may target Garcon quite a bit. He could also look for George Kittle often if the tight end returns to a high snap count – he played a season-low 31 last week. The Eagles are allowing the fifth-most PPR points to TEs and they struggled against Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis in Week 7; the pair combined for a 12/14/131/2 line. They’re also permitting the seventh-most receptions to RBs (6.57), making Hyde a better option in full PPR formats, but he’s still a risky choice against this defense. Kendricks was inactive last weekend but the Eagles could really use him with LB Jordan Hicks done for the season. He’s PFF’s 25th-ranked linebacker and their best one in coverage.
Other tagged players: Pierre Garcon, Marquise Goodwin, Carlos Hyde, C.J. Beathard Ed Dickson returned to practice Thursday, C Ryan Kalil didn't participate
Kalil suffered a setback during Week 7’s game and it looks like he’ll be sidelined this weekend. His replacement, Tyler Larsen has struggled in pass protection this season, allowing the second-most pressures among centers (16, per PFF) and he’s been charged with the most sacks (3). Dickson wasn’t at practice yesterday but he should be all set for this weekend. After his huge game against the Lions in Week 5, when he capitalized on broken coverage a couple times on his way to 175 yards, the tight end hasn’t topped 36 yards. He’s remained involved in the passing game though, averaging 6.5 targets over his last two outings. While the Buccaneers, his Week 8 opponent, aren’t considered efficient against tight ends by DVOA (23rd, per FO), they’ve only allowed 3.67 receptions per game to the position, the sixth-lowest rate in the league.
Other tagged players: Carolina Panthers