DFS Alerts
Stud TE Should Be Worth Every Penny Week 7
On a week where the tight end position is razor thin, with few quality options to target, one tight end that stands out as a premier play is Jimmy Graham. After a slow start to the year battling nagging injuries, Graham is finally healthy and has averaged eight targets per game over the last three weeks. He draws a fantastic matchup against a Giants defense that ranks 20th in pass DVOA and has yielded the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. Without a reliable running game to lean on and difficult matchups in the secondary for Seattle’s receivers, look for Graham to easily pay off his manageable price tag with the potential for a monster performance this week.
Value WR With Increased Workload
If you’re looking for value at wide receiver this week, consider taking Marqise Lee, who has been a serviceable replacement for the injured Allen Robinson this season. Fresh off a 5-83 performance on 10 targets in last week’s loss to the Rams, Lee should once again be slated for a heavy workload with Leonard Fournette banged up. He draws a great matchup against a weak Indianapolis secondary that ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. In a game where Jacksonville should get quarterback Blake Bortles more involved, Lee should have no problems paying off his very attractive price this week.
Reliable WR With High Floor
If you are looking to take advantage of price at WR in week 7, look no further than Jarvis Landry, who leads all NFL wide receivers targets market share through five games this season. Not your prototypical WR 1, Landry spends the majority of his time in the slot, where he uses his elusiveness to get open and breakaway speed to gain yards after the catch. He draws a juicy matchup against an overrated Jets defense that he has torched for an average of six catches and 74 yards in seven career games, which includes 10 targets per game during that span. With quarterback Jay Cutler continuing to struggle throwing the ball deep, expect a heavy workload for Landry as Miami’s only reliable receiving option.
Heavily Targeted RB With Sneaky Matchup
If you’re looking for value at running back this week, consider taking Duke Johnson, who draws a sneaky good matchup against a pass funnel Tennessee defense that ranks 25th in pass DVOA against opposing running backs. Known for his superior pass-catching abilities, Johnson has averaged six targets per game this season. With Cleveland likely playing from behind throughout much of this game, look for Johnson to remain a key part of the offense as rookie QB Deshone Kizer’s safety net.
Angry RB Running Wild This Week
Outside of evaluating the matchup for a particular running back, another important aspect of RB selection, especially for cash games, is volume. One such running back who will dominate usage this week is rookie Ezekiel Elliott, who continues to produce despite a looming suspension. Well rested following a week 6 bye, Elliott and the ‘Boys head to San Francisco to take on a winless 49ers team that has yielded the second most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Also a factor in the passing game, Zeke should have no problems paying off his steep price tag against a San Francisco defense that ranks 30th in pass DVOA against opposing running backs.
Pay Up To Be Contrarian At QB
Ownership among quarterbacks has been very spread out for much of this season, with many trying to save at the position in an effort to load up on other roster positions. One quarterback who has shown the upside to burn those that choose to fade him is Drew Brees, who will look to bounce back from a subpar performance against the Lions last week. Known for his drastic home/road splits, paying up for Brees in Lambeau Field may seem risky; however in three career games played in Green Bay Brees has averaged 406 passing yards with a 7-1 TD/INT ratio. He’s also never thrown for fewer than 311 passing yards in six games against the Packers, who have surrendered the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks over the past two seasons.
High Usage With The Rookie Quarterback
George Kittle will have his college quarterback throwing him the ball moving forward. Both Kittle and Beathard are rookies from Iowa and are former roommates. He had eight targets against Washington in week six, and six of those targets came when Beathard was at quarterback. Young quarterbacks tend to use their tight ends, and this time we have a combo that has already played together for four years. Dallas has only allowed one passing touchdown to a tight end this season, but they’re ranked 29th in DVOA against tight ends. Kittle is cheap on FanDuel and DraftKings this weekend, and I think we see between 8-12 targets this weekend. I wrote up Beathard as well, and I mentioned it there as well, the 49ers play at the fastest pace in the NFL this season.
My Catching Ability Give me a Ton of Upside
Duke Johnson just didn’t gel well with Hogan, and now that Kizer is back under center, I’m jumping right back on him. The Titans have only allowed two rushing touchdowns this season, and they’re allowing less than 100 yards rushing per game. They’ve struggled defending the pass all year, and they’ve struggled with pass catching running backs. They’re ranked 25th in DVOA against pass catching backs this season, and they’re allowing 49.9 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs. This game has a really nice total at 46.5, and Tennessee is a 5.5 favorite. If Cleveland is trailing which they should be, Johnson should be the running back getting the work, and I think he has a lot of catch upside this weekend.
High Floor with a Ton of Upside
Mark Ingram is one of my favorite plays this weekend, and he’s not getting a ton of love. The Saints are 6th in run blocking efficiency this season, which continues to fly under the radar. Green Bay is allowing 3.85 yards per carry this season and they’ve allowed at least 100 yards rushing in four of six games. Ingram had 25 carries, and five catches for 30 touches on 47 snaps. When he’s on the field, they’re trying to get him the ball. I really like the idea of playing Ingram with the Saints defense this weekend, and with everyone talking about Hundley, I think it could be a low owned stack. He’s had at least 60 yards rushing in every game this season, and really took advantage of his first game with 20+ touches.
The Contrarian Cheap Quarterback
Everyone is talking about Hundley and Kizer, but no one is talking about my favorite cheap play on the weekend. C.J. Beathard looked really good in that game against Washington, and presents really good upside against Dallas this weekend. The 49ers are playing at the fastest pace in the NFL, and with a defense ranked in the bottom half; Beathard should get plenty of opportunity to throw the ball this weekend. When re-watching that game from last week, this looked like a completely different offense with Beathard at quarterback. He was 19 of 36 for 245 yards and a touchdown with one interception. Dallas has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four straight games, and they’re allowing the seventh most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. I will have a few teams with Kizer, but I’m going to have a lot of exposure to Beathard this weekend.
Albert Wilson active Thursday night
Charcandrick West, C Mitch Morse, and RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif have already been ruled out. West wasn’t able to clear the concussion protocol in time for their Thursday night matchup with the Raiders. Kansas City signed C.J. Spiller earlier this week, he could take over some of West’s passing-down duties. With Chris Conley out, Wilson should see an uptick in targets going forward. He’ll have a decent matchup with T.J. Carrie in the slot. Carrie has posted the third-worst cover snaps per reception rate (6.9) and allowed a fantasy-friendly 83% catch rate, but he has earned PFF’s 17th-best cover grade. As a unit, the Raiders are 29th in pass DVOA and giving up the second-highest passer rating (105.4).
Update: Stefon Diggs didn't practice Thursday
It was originally reported that the receiver was participating in today’s session but he was officially listed with a DNP. If he misses any more time, Adam Thielen would remain the Vikings’ top receiver. He took advantage of his opportunity last weekend, coming down with nine receptions for 97 yards against an injury-riddled Packers secondary. He may have a better matchup than it appears on paper against the Ravens this weekend as he’ll battle Ladarius Webb in the slot. When inside, Webb is allowing the most yards per cover snap (2.11, per PFF) and a 68% catch rate. Diggs’ absence would also open up opportunities for Kyle Rudolph. Although inflated by Marcedes Lewis’ three-touchdown performance, the Ravens are allowing the second-most touchdowns per game to tight ends this season (1.0) and they’re 32nd in TE DVOA.
Other tagged players: Adam Thielen Rob Kelley returned to practice Thursday
It looks like Kelley will be able to return after missing Week 6 with an ankle injury. He’ll resume the early-down role while Chris Thompson operates as the passing-down back. He’ll have a very tough spot against an Eagles defense that tops the league in adjusted line yards and impressively stuffed Jonathan Stewart for -4 yards on eight attempts. On the season, they’ve only given up 40.0 rushing yards per game to RBs. They allowed Christian McCaffrey to haul in ten receptions for 56 yards a score though, and they’re permitting the tenth-most receptions to the positon. It looks like a better matchup for Thompson and he’ll be more useful in full PPR formats.
Other tagged players: Chris Thompson, Samaje Perine Stefon Diggs and LB Anthony Barr returned to practice Thursday; Sam Bradford didn't participate
Diggs said his status for Sunday is up in the air but his return to practice is a step in the right direction. If he misses any more time, Adam Thielen would remain the top receiver. He took advantage of his opportunity last weekend, coming down with nine receptions for 97 yards against an injury-riddled Packers secondary. He may have a better matchup than it appears on paper against the Ravens this weekend as he’ll battle Ladarius Webb in the slot. When inside, Webb is allowing the most yards per cover snap (2.11, per PFF) and a 68% catch rate. Case Keenum will likely remain the starter this weekend against the Ravens with Sam Bradford looking doubtful. It’s a tough spot for the QB as Baltimore is currently holding passers to the second-lowest completion percentage (53.6%), fourth-lowest rating (71.1), and fifth-fewest yards per game (190). Barr’s return to practice is good news for the Vikings defense a he’s earned the eighth-best LB grade from PFF this season.
Other tagged players: Sam Bradford, Minnesota Vikings Broncos RT Menelik Watson ruled out for Week 7
Watson hasn’t been playing well this season, earning the 66th tackle grade from PFF among 71 qualifiers, but digging into the bench likely won’t help the Broncos.