DFS Alerts
Update: Luke Kuechly collected a DNP Thursday
It was originally reported he was practicing today but he the official injury report says otherwise. If he can’t return by tomorrow, he’ll likely be sidelined this weekend. Kuechly has earned top-12 PFF grades in both run defense and pass coverage, if he can’t play, it would be a clear upgrade for Jordan Howard.
DeMarco Murray didn't practice again Thursday
The running back is dealing with hamstring soreness and has now missed two practices in a row. The running back was out-snapped by Derrick Henry in Week 6 40 to 38 and out-touched 20 to 16. The hammy issue has been lingering since the preseason, so the Titans may opt to give Murray more time to heal. If so, Henry would enter a workhorse role against the Browns. It’s a tough spot for RBs on the ground as Cleveland ranks 3rd in rush DVOA (per FO) and second in adjusted line yards (2.85). Overall, they’ve allowed the eighth-fewest FanDuel points per game to the position.
Other tagged players: Derrick Henry Bilal Powell will play Week 7
It was originally reported Powell wasn’t practicing Thursday but he got in a full session and head coach Todd Bowles said the running back will play this weekend. He’ll likely be in a committee with Matt Forte and Elijah McGuire. It’s doubtful any of them can get enough volume to be appealing in fantasy against a Dolphins defense allowing the 11th-fewest PPR points to RBs. Miami is second in rush DVOA and their line is fifth in adjusted line yards (per FO). While they’re worse against the pass, checking in at 21st in receiving RB DVOA, both Forte and Powell will be involved in the passing game, so neither will generate a distinct advantage if game flow works in that direction. Robby Anderson was also upgraded to a full practice and is fully expected to suit up against the Dolphins this weekend. He’ll match up with Cordrea Tankersley, who’s allowing 0.77 yards per cover snap, which would be 15th if he had enough snaps to qualify (and one spot ahead of Jalen Ramsey, per PFF). Jermaine Kearse has a better outlook against Xavien Howard, who’s allowing 1.35 yards per cover snap (53rd) and has the seventh-worst cover snaps per reception rate (7.7).
Other tagged players: Robbie Chosen, Matt Forte, Elijah McGuire, Jermaine Kearse Jameis Winston not expected to play Week 7
After earlier reports indicated Winston would resume throwing today, reporters on the scene said he was only simulating the motion in team drills after making exactly one real throw. Many of them are now speculating he won’t play this weekend in Buffalo with the Tampa Bay Times’ Rick Stroud going as far as saying he doesn’t “see how or why Winston will play” against the Bills. Simply put, no official word from team sources yet, but Winston appears to be on the doubtful side of things. If he can’t go, Ryan Fitzpatrick would get the start under center. It’s a tough matchup as Buffalo’s pass defense ranks third in pass DVOA (per FO) and has limited quarterbacks to the second-lowest passer rating (66.5).
As reported by: Rick Stroud Other tagged players: Ryan Fitzpatrick DeVante Parker isn't practicing again Thursday
Offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen said they’re “holding out hope” the receiver can play this weekend but it doesn’t seem like he’ll be able to return. If he’s out, it should provide a nice target boost for Jarvis Landry, as it did in Week 6. The slot receiver picked up his second-most looks of the year against the Falcons (14) and finished with an 8/62/1 line. He’s now reached double-digit targets in four of the first five games and he’ll have a nice matchup with Buster Skrine in the slot on Sunday. The Jets CB has allowed the seventh-most receptions, fifth-most yards, and a 108.1 passer rating when lined up inside. Landry remains a better PPR option due to his low yardage; he’s posted the 104th average depth of target (5.8) out of 113 qualifiers.
Other tagged players: Jarvis Landry Sterling Shepard practicing again Thursday
Shepard could make his return in Week 7 following a one-game absence. If he does, he’ll be the Giants’ top receiver and is due for a sizable workload boost. If Seahawks corner Jeremy Lane is able to return, Shepard would match up with him in the slot – the corner has earned PFF’s 91st cover grade this season. The Giants are currently +5.5 home dogs with an implied total of 17.25 points.
Raiders LB NaVorro Bowman will start Week 7
Bowman should provide an upgrade for Oakland’s run defense tonight; heading into Week 6, he had the fifth-most run-stops among linebackers (per PFF). Oakland is 21st in rush DVOA but they were able to limit Melvin Gordon to 3.3 yards per carry this past Sunday. Gordon killed them through the air though, racking up nine catches and a score. The Raiders rank 29th in receiving RB DVOA and they won’t get much help in the area from Bowman; beat writer Tim Kawakami believes the Raiders will work to keep the linebacker, who’s allowing an 84.6% catch rate, off the field in passing situations. Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt has pulled in at least three catches in all but one game this season.
Other tagged players: Kareem Hunt No Longer Just a Blocker
The Vikes finally woke up and started finding Rudolph and he’s had back-to-back games of nine targets in tough matchups. He had been quiet and blocking much more but I think the Vikings are done with that. He is a top five tight end and the lack of production is over and he is way too cheap considering the upside he has. Regardless of whether Diggs plays or not he should see plenty of opportunities and if Diggs is out again he will see even more. He faces a Ravens defense that has been destroyed by tight ends all year long (hello three touchdowns to Marcedes Lewis) and they have not faced any good ones. The spot is perfect for Kyle – the only problem is all the other TEs are also in great spots. Hopefully that will keep ownership low as I will be loading up on Rudolph and Hunter Henry this week. I like Grant Neiffer’s idea of playing a TE in the flex this week if you want to play both.
Jordan Matthews and E.J. Gaines practicing again Thursday
It’s the second straight day of practice for these two. Matthews is only two weeks removed from thumb surgery but he’s got a shot to play on Sunday at home against the Buccaneers. Over the past two seasons, the Bills have averaged 29.3 points at the Ralph, 11.4 points more than on the road. As one might expect, quarterback Tyrod Taylor’s numbers jump quite a bit in Buffalo as well. He averages 24.1 PPR points at home compared to 16.5 on the road in large part due to increased touchdown production – 1.6 per game at home, 0.7 away. With Charles Clay out and the rest of the receivers underperforming, Matthews would have a good shot at coming down with a touchdown ball against a Tampa defense currently allowing the sixth-most passing scores per game (2.0). It’s possible he’s limited if he suits up though, so he’ll be worth tracking into Sunday. Gaines is PFF’s 24th-ranked cover corner while his partner on the outside, Tre’Davious White, is fifth. Mike Evans will have his work cut out for him if Gaines returns to the field.
Other tagged players: Buffalo Bills Leonard Fournette and Marqise Lee won't practice again Thursday
Fournette tweaked his ankle in Week 6 but he’s expected to play this Sunday against the Colts. He finished with another strong performance against the Rams after jumping out of the gates with a 75-yard touchdown run (21 carries, 130 yards total). He continued to give way to Chris Ivory in the passing game often though. Ivory finished with ten targets and a team-high nine receptions to Fournette’s two catches on two looks. Even so, he’s got a heck of a matchup with the Colts, whose defense has allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns to RBs this season – 1.0 per game – and the fourth-most FanDuel points to the position while ranking 20th in rush DVOA and 24th in adjusted line yards (4.42). Fournette has picked up 20+ touches in all but one game this season, so his volume will be there in this favorable spot. Even at $9.0k, Fournette checks in as our RB3 in points-per-dollar on FD this week. Lee is expected to play as well. He’s currently dealing with a knee issue and that will keep him sidelined this afternoon. Jacksonville continues to throw at the lowest rate in the NFL (47.5%), which limits his upside against the 27th-ranked pass defense in DVOA.
Other tagged players: Marqise Lee Get Your Box of Golden Grahams Cereal Ready for Sunday
Burn me once, I’ll give you another shot. Burn me twice, shame on me. Burn me a hundred times, I’m pot committed. Since leaving the Saints, I’ve targeted Jimmy Graham more times than I’d like to admit, most often to my detriment. We have to put biases aside in DFS and that’s exactly what I’m going to do with Graham this week. His target totals are trending in the right direction (25 in his last three games) and he’s facing a Giants’ team that can’t cover tight ends. On the season, New York is ranked 20th in DVOA and 31st in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Solid Connection Between this Receiver and his Quarterback
I’ve never really considered Daante Adams to be a cash game play when the rest of the Packers’ receivers are healthy, but I’m encouraged by what I saw last week. Despite being shadowed by Xavier Rhodes (one of the best corners in the NFL), Brett Hundley still threw the ball Adams’ way ten times. He caught five of them for 54 yards and a touchdown. This week, the Packers are playing at home against the Saints. While I’m buying into the “Saints have an improved defense” narrative, I still think this is a below-average pass defense. The Packers will be playing from behind and they will be forced to air it out. Adams could smash value if he sees 10+ targets again.
It's About Time for this Running Back to Hit Paydirt
LeSean McCoy has been a workhorse back in every sense of the word. He’s played on 72% of the snaps, he’s averaging 23 touches a game, and he has the second highest target rate (24%) of any running back in the NFL. His only downfall has been the lack of touchdown production. I’m expecting some positive regression in this aspect, as he’s had ten carries inside the redzone and two inside the five yard line. He just hasn’t been able to capitalize. This week he squares off against a depleted Buccaneers’ defense at home. With Charles Clay out, there is no reason for the Bills to air it out in this one. Look for McCoy to get 25+ touches, 5+ targets, and hopefully find the endzone.
Jameis Winston will resume throwing at practice Thursday
He’s dealing with an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder and hasn’t thrown yet this week. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken said he believes his QB will be able to toss the rock a bit in practice this afternoon, a good sign for his chances to play Week 7 in Buffalo. It’s a tough matchup as Buffalo’s pass defense ranks third in pass DVOA (per FO) and has limited quarterbacks to the second-lowest passer rating (66.5). The injury adds even more risk for Winston and his pass catchers on the road.
Like Journey Once Said, "Don't Stop Believing"
The Browns quarterback duo of DeShone Kizer and Kevin Hogan has been less than impressive. The two have played so poorly that they keep getting benched for one another. After Hogan looked downright lost against the Texans, the Browns will give Kizer another crack at the starting gig. We know that Kizer isn’t the most accurate passer, but he can make plays with his legs and he loves to take shots downfield (third-highest deep ball rate in the NFL). The Titans aren’t particularly good against the run, but really struggle against the pass (25th in DVOA). Kizer is playing at home, he had another week to study film, and he’ll likely be playing from behind. This might be the last chance I give the Browns’ quarterbacks this season, so don’t let me down Kizer.