DFS Alerts
Is This Salary Too Appealing to Pass On?
Oh how the mighty can fall so fast in daily fantasy sports. After five games, people are ready to say Amari Cooper is done. Then again, they were saying the same about Cam Newton three weeks into the season, but that’s what you get when you live in a “What have you done for me lately?” society. I know: Amari gets no targets, and when he does, he drops the ball. For this type of play, you’re going to have to throw out the numbers and just go based on the player’s history, ability, upside and price. With Derek Carr back and Oakland struggling, I expect them to try to re-establish Cooper, and if he can get a rhythm early, the upside is the highest for any player in this price range. Like I said, there aren’t a lot of numbers to bank on in this specific matchup; however, this is a guy with immense upside, and he could potentially have low ownership. Cooper is someone that could win you a GPP this week.
DeVante Parker officially listed doubtful for Week 6; CBs Xavien Howard and Byron Maxwell questionable
The Dolphins are expected to be without the receiver when they visit the Falcons this weekend. His absence would open up targets for Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills. Slot receiver Landry will have the best individual matchup. When in the slot, Falcons nickel corner Brian Poole is allowing a 75% catch rate and 1.5 yards per cover snap (fifth-most, per PFF). Landry has been a ball hog this year, cornering off a 30% market share of the team’s targets and posting three games with double-digit looks. He’s struggled in the yards department though as his 5.7 average depth of target ranks 107th among 117 qualifying receivers. Per usual, that gives him more appeal in full PPR scoring – his $6.6k salary on DraftKings would become a great deal if Parker sits. Howard is expected to play and match up with Julio Jones. Prior to playing a Titans team with Matt Cassel under center, Howard had the fifth-worst cover snaps per reception rate (6.8). With Mohamed Sanu sidelined, Jones could see an uptick in targets and should be able to feast for as long as the Falcons attack through the air.
Other tagged players: Miami Dolphins, Jarvis Landry
Titans remain "hopeful" Marcus Mariota can play Monday
The quarterback did a little more today in practice as he rehabs a hamstring injury. He appears to be on the right track to suit up but he’ll likely come down to a game-time decision. If he’s able to start, he’ll have a fantasy-friendly matchup with the Colts, whose defense is third-worst in both passing yards per game (294) and yards per attempt (8.3). He’ll certainly carry some risk though given his injury, and his rushing upside could be limited. Indy has been very poor against tight ends. They rank 29th in TE DVOA and they’ve permitted the seventh-most PPR points to the position. Rookie George Kittle went off for a 7/9/83/1 line against them this past weekend and Delanie Walker will be in a great spot to exceed that production if Mariota plays.
Travis Kelce (concussion) will play Week 6
Albert Wilson and Tyreek Hill will also suit up on Sunday despite appearing on the injury report this week. C Mitch Morse and RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif will remain sidelined. Wilson will step into the WR2 role behind Hill with Conley out but he’ll have a difficult spot against Mike Hilton in the slot. When inside, Hilton ranks first in passer rating (39.6) and sixth in yards per cover snap (0.68). As a unit, the Steelers rank third pass DVOA (per FO) and have produced some of the best passing defense stats this year: fewest yards allowed per game (140), fewest yards per attempt (5.4), second-fewest touchdowns (3), fourth-lowest passer rating (68.5). That said, here’s who they’ve played: Browns (30th in offense DVOA), Case Keenum-led Vikings (5th), Bears (28th), Ravens (24th), and Jaguars (18th). Quarterback Alex Smith has been on fire this year and he’s led the Chiefs to the number one spot in offense DVOA. He’ll look to end Pittsburgh’s success at home this weekend and it seems that Vegas believes the Chiefs can put points on the board – they currently have the sixth-highest implied total of the week (25.25). Kelce has been Smith’s top-targeted pass-catcher (37, 23.4%) and his volume should be secure even though the Steelers currently rank third in TE DVOA (following their easy TE schedule).
Other tagged players: Albert Wilson, Tyreek Hill TE Pivot in GPPs
If you’re looking to differentiate your lineup at the tight end position this week, consider taking Ryan Griffin, who is Houston’s third receiving option in a suddenly competent passing attack. Quietly averaging five targets per game in three starts, Griffin draws a great matchup against a hapless Cleveland Browns defense that has allowed the second most fantasy points and ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA against opposing tight ends. In a game with sneaky shootout potential, Griffin should have no problems paying off his very attractive price tag this week.
Don't Write Off This Veteran WR
Despite hauling in just six of his team-leading 10 targets for 51 yards in last week’s loss to Philadelphia, Larry Fitzgerald should once again be the focal point of Arizona’s offense moving forward in the absence of David Johnson. Not your prototypical WR 1, Fitzgerald spends most of his time lined up in the slot, where he leads all NFL wide receivers with 10 red zone targets and have averaged double digit targets in five games this season. This bodes well for the futuer Hall of Famer, who will be taking on a depleted Tampa Bay defense that ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA against slot receivers this season.
Don't "Wait And See" With This Stud WR
Finally healthy following a bye week, Julio Jones should be primed for a breakout performance in Week 6. He draws a gorgeous matchup at home against a weak Miami secondary that ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA against opposing #1 this season. With a new offensive coordinator no longer deploying Julio as a decoy in the red zone, look for him to bounce back in Week 6 with a strong performance in a game that Atlanta should have no problems moving the ball through the air.
Value RB With Increased Workload
If you’re looking for value at RB this week, don’t sleep on Buck Allen, who is expected to take over lead running back duties following an injury to Terrance West. Often overlooked due to the team he plays for, Allen enters Week 6 with at least five targets in each of his last four games and ranks sixth among all NFL running backs with 14 red zone rushing attempts this season. With quarterback Joe Flacco continuing to struggle moving the ball through the air, expect a heavy workload for Allen this week in a game the Ravens should be to control.
Continue Riding This High Volume RB
With at least one touchdown in five straight games to begin his career, rookie sensation Leonard Fournette is certainly living up to the hype; entering Week 6 averaging 25 touches per game in a run-heavy Jacksonville offense. Fresh off a monster 181-yard, two-touchdown performance against a stout Steelers defense in Week 5, Fournette should once again be leaned upon to carry the load offensively for the Jaguars this week. He draws a sneaky good matchup against an underperforming Rams defense that ranks 18th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the fourth most rushing yards per game this season. In what projects to be a physical, smashmouth style game in Jacksonville this week, expect Fournette to remain heavily involved in his team’s offense and be worth every penny of his steep price tag.
Terrance West ruled out for Week 6, DT Brandon Williams doubtful, Breshad Perriman and CB Jimmy Smith questionable
Smith and Perriman are both expected to play. West is expected to miss some time after he re-aggravated a calf injury this past weekend. He’s essentially the third running back behind Javorius Allen and Alex Collins but his absence should provide a slight snap boost for the other two. Allen has now played 62.6% of the snaps and he’s out-carried Collins 66 to 37. However, Collins has been a much more effective back on the ground; his 7.1 ypc has him leading the team with 261 rushing yards to Allen’s 232. Collins hasn’t even been targeted once in the passing game though and Allen is second on the team with 24 looks. Volume should be on Allen’s side again when they take on the Bears in Week 6. He’ll continue to have more appeal in full PPR formats as he’s averaged 5.0 receptions per game over the past four weeks. However, he’s also been the trusted back in the red zone, picking up 14 carries inside the 20 – the sixth-most in the league – while Collins hasn’t received any. Williams has been inactive for the past few weeks and still isn’t ready to return, which is a boost for Jordan Howard this weekend. Smith, who returned to practice today, missed practice Wednesday and Thursday last week with an Achilles injury and still played on Sunday. Perriman returned yesterday. He’s been very inefficient this season, catching just 4-of-15 targets and he hasn’t topped four looks in any game this season – he won’t be a viable fantasy option in Week 6.
Other tagged players: Baltimore Ravens Take Advantage of This QB Matchup This Week
After two mediocre performances to open the year, Cousins has rebounded nicely with five touchdowns and back to back 20+ fantasy point performances. He draws a juicy matchup against a leaky San Francisco secondary that ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA and has been torched for 300 passing yards per game over their last three games against mediocre QBs. With question marks surrounding Washington’s already suspect running game, this should create a favorable pace in this game that is conducive to passing, giving Cousins the potential for a monster performance against a bad pass defense that will be playing a long road trip.
Mohamed Sanu ruled out for Week 6; Julio Jones, LB Vic Beasley, and K Matt Bryant will play
Jones is expected to play this weekend and Beasley is trending in that direction as well while Sanu is likely out. The Falcons host the Dolphins on Sunday as monster -13.0 favorites with an implied total of 30 points. Although game flow may not work in Jones’ favor, he could do plenty of damage early against Dolphins CB Xavien Howard. Prior to playing a Titans team with Matt Cassel under center, Howard had the fifth-worst cover snaps per reception rate (6.8). As a unit, Miami ranks 29th in both pass and WR1 DVOA (per FO). Plus, if Sanu misses the game, Jones’ market share should increase. In that scenario, Taylor Gabriel would be elevated to the WR2 role and should receive a larger workload as well. In the one game he played without Sanu last season, he turned six targets into three catches for 82 yards and a score. Beasley’s return represents an upgrade for the Falcons defense in real life and in fantasy. In 2016, he rushed the quarterback on 92.7% of his snaps and accumulated 16 sacks, which led the league, per PFF. On top of that, he forced the most fumbles in 2016 (6). Atlanta’s D/ST will be a deservedly popular option against one of the worst offenses in the league so far.
Other tagged players: Julio Jones, Taylor Gabriel, Atlanta Falcons Rob Kelley (ankle) doubtful for Week 6
Kelley isn’t expected to play this weekend, elevating Samaje Perine into the primary early-down grinder role with Chris Thompson operating as the pass-down back. Thompson should also pick up some extra carries, he earned eight the last time Kelley was out. Even better, Thompson, the team’s leading receiver, went off for a 6/7/150/1 receiving line and he’ll have another great spot against the 49ers. Their defense ranks 22nd in receiving RB DVOA and has given up the most passes to the position (9.7, per FO). Perine struggled in the starting role against the Raiders in Week 3, posting just 49 yards on 19 carries. On the season, he’s only averaging 3.1 ypc but SF’s defensive line has been mediocre, ranking 16th in adjusted line yards (4.05) and they’re allowing the ninth-most rushing yards to RBs this season (103.6).
Other tagged players: Samaje Perine, Chris Thompson Stefon Diggs and Sam Bradford ruled out for Week 6
Diggs’ absence will provide target boosts for Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph. Green Bay has been tough on tight ends this season, limiting them to the second-fewest PPR points per game (7.74) without allowing a single touchdown to the position. With Laquon Treadwell and Michael Floyd representing untrustworthy options at receiver, Thielen should see plenty of opportunities from Case Keenum in the number one receiver role. The Packers are 26th in WR1 DVOA while allowing the tenth-most passes to top wideouts (8.5, per FO). Last Sunday, Dez Bryant managed a decent 5/8/52/1 line against them. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers tried playing Damarious Randall in the slot last week which would present a favorable matchup for slot receiver Thielen – the corner has permitted a 116.8 passer rating (67th among corners) and 1.55 yards per cover snap (59th, per PFF). However, injuries forced him to the outside, which left Quinten Rollins inside the most and he allowed a completion all five times he was targeted for 41 yards and a score (in just 15 coverage snaps). Rollins has now allowed a completion all 15 times he’s been targeted inside. If CB Kevin King (concussion) is out and Capers doesn’t move safety Morgan Burnett, who would have the second-best yards per cover snap when in slot coverage if he qualified (0.26, per PFF), back into the nickel corner role, Thielen could have a field day. That would likely leave Burnett on Rudolph most of the afternoon, presenting a challenging matchup for the tight end.
Other tagged players: Sam Bradford, Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph Ty Montgomery expected to be limited if active Week 6
Montgomery may be cleared to play Sunday after missing time with broken ribs but he won’t return to a full workload. He wore a flak jacket in a padded practice yesterday and will be sporting on if he plays this weekend to protect his still-injured ribs. With Aaron Jones playing well and a bye coming in Week 7, there’s not much incentive to rush Montgomery back and risk further complications.
Other tagged players: Aaron Jones