DFS Alerts

DeVante Parker (ankle) isn't expected to play Week 6

Parker is taking it day-by-day as he deals with an ankle injury and he hasn’t been able to practice yet this week. ESPN’s James Walker reported the Dolphins are expected to be without the receiver when they visit the Falcons this weekend. His absence would open up targets for Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills. Slot receiver Landry will have the best matchup whether Parker plays or not. When in the slot, Falcons nickel corner Brian Poole is allowing a 75% catch rate and 1.5 yards per cover snap (fifth-most, per PFF). Landry has been a ball hog this year, cornering off a 30% market share of the team’s targets and posting three games with double-digit looks. He’s struggled in the yards department though as his 5.7 average depth of target ranks 107th among 117 qualifying receivers. Per usual, that gives him more appeal in full PPR scoring – his $6.6k salary on DraftKings would become a great deal if Parker sits.

Matt Forte (toe) will play Week 6; Bilal Powell (calf, questionable) not expected to be active

Powell is considered questionable and will be a game-time call but ESPN’s said it would be a surprise if Powell suits up. Forte will make his return following a two-game absence and he’s expected to split the backfield work with McGuire when they take on the Patriots this Sunday. New England’s defense has struggled so far, ranking 27th in both rush and receiving RB DVOA and they’ve allowed the most PPR points to RBs this season. Although that seems like a terrific spot, the timeshare may prevent either player from capitalizing. McGuire’s big 69-yard run makes him pop on the stat sheet with 5.2 yards per carry but with that rush taken out, he’s averaging 3.2 ypc. Forte’s turf toe may work in McGuire’s favor though, as it could limit him during the game. McGuire appears to be the best bet to pick up a big enough volume to exploit the matchup but it remains a risky proposition and his upside will be limited with Forte taking away work.

Sterling Shepard, Paul Perkins, DE Olivier Vernon, and C Weston Richburg ruled out for Week 6

The New York Football Giants will allegedly have an NFL team show up for Sunday night football in Denver but these guys and CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (suspension) won’t be there. Roger Lewis will enter the no-fly zone as the top receiver for a struggling Eli Manning stuck behind a poor offensive line that’s been charged with the fourth-most sacks (10, per PFF). Without Perkins available, Orleans Darkwa and Wayne Gallman will likely split early-down work with Shane Vereen fulfilling the passing down role – all three split time pretty evenly last week, playing between 20-27 snaps each. The rookie Gallman showed his versatility, nabbing as many targets as Vereen (5) and catching all of them for 25 yards. He could potentially carve out a featured role in the coming weeks but this doesn’t seem like the spot to target him. Denver’s defense ranks first in rush DVOA and their line is second in adjusted line yards (2.5, per FO). Denver’s weak point continues to be at the tight end position; they’re 26th in TE DVOA and have allowed the sixth-most PPR points to the position. Evan Engram figures to see a huge market share bump with the top four receivers out but his offense will likely struggle to move the ball and get into scoring position often, limiting his upside. The Giants currently have an implied total of 13.5 points.

With DRC out on defense, Eli Apple will continue to man the outside, setting up a nice spot for receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. The second-year corner has allowed the most touchdowns (4), fourth-most receptions (25), and the fourth-highest passer rating (128.8). Sanders will also get more run than Thomas in the slot against Ross Cockrell, Rodgers-Cromartie’s replacement. So far this season, Sanders has slightly out-targeted Thomas 33-30 and he’s scored twice while Thomas has failed to find the end zone. Quarterback Trevor Siemian has looked his way six times in the red zone which leads the team and beats out Thomas’ share by four. Without Vernon on the field, Siemian should face less pressure when dropping back. Of course, game flow may work against the QB and his pass-catches as the Broncos are massive favorites (-11.5) and the Giants haven’t been able to stop the run this year. NY is 28th in rushing DVOA and they’ve allowed RBs to pick up the fifth-most rushing yards per game this season (119). C.J. Anderson out-snapped Jamaal Charles by the biggest margin of the season in Week 4, 44 to 11, and he will continue to be the featured back. Based on his matchup and expected volume, he appears to be a great deal on FanDuel at $7.0k – he currently projects as our RB3 in terms of points-per-dollar.

Wendell Smallwood and RT Lane Johnson inactive Thursday night

Smallwood was considered questionable with a knee injury heading into Thursday. It’ll be his second straight absence. The Eagles could go with a three-man committee at running back again. Against the Cardinals, LeGarrette Blount only played 26-of-67 snaps while Corey Clement picked up 23 and newly-signed Kenjon Barner received 17. Blount will still be the favorite to score and get work near the end zone – he’s sixth in the league with six attempts inside the five-yard line. If he can also manage to pick up a larger workload outside of scoring position, he could have a huge outing as he currently leads the league with 4.82 yards after contact per carry. Johnson is in the concussion protocol won’t be able to suit up Thursday night. He’s a huge loss as he currently ranks among the top eight tackles in both pass and run blocking (per PFF).

Eagles DT Fletcher Cox will play Thursday night

Cox has missed the past two weeks but he’s ready to return for Philadelphia’s Thursday night matchup with Carolina. His presence will provide a boost for their pass-rush – Cox has earned PFF’s 11th-best grade in the area among interior defenders and was 14th in pass-rushing productivity prior to his injury. Newton has taken the seventh-most sacks this season (15) and the Eagles will have a better shot at getting to him with Cox on the field.

Markus Wheaton (groin) could miss 4-6 weeks

The Bears receiver has a tear in his groin and he may miss up to six weeks to rehab the injury. That leaves the Bears, who just cut Deonte Thompson, with Kendall Wright and Tre McBride as their top receivers. Wright played just 54.1% of the snaps on Monday night and still led the team with 46 yards and four catches. With Wheaton out of the picture, Wright’s snap count should rise back up. He won’t be an appealing option this weekend against the Ravens though. Baltimore’s pass defense has limited opposing quarterbacks to the second-lowest passer rating in the league (66.1) and rookie Mitch Trubisky will be under center for the Bears in his second start. The weak spot on this defense appears to be against tight ends. They rank 32nd in TE DVOA and they’ve allowed the tenth-most PPR points to the position. Zach Miller led the Bears with seven targets Monday night and caught Trubisky’s lone touchdown. He could continue to see a sizable workload this weekend and pick up some usage in scoring position, although the Bears may struggle to get that far downfield often. Miller’s $2.9k DK salary is cheap enough to consider him as a very risky option in GPPs but someone like Jack Doyle appears to be a better deal for an extra $800.

Update: Travis Kelce (concussion) had a full practice Thursday

It was originally reported he would be limited today. Full participation is a good sign he can clear the protocol in time for Sunday’s game but he’s still questionable after missing Wednesday’s session. If he can suit up this weekend, he appears to have a difficult spot against the Steelers, whose defense ranks third in both pass and TE DVOA (per FO) and they’ve produced some of the best numbers in several passing stats this year: fewest yards allowed per game (140), fewest yards per attempt (5.4), second-fewest touchdowns (3), fourth-lowest passer rating (68.5). That said, here’s who they’ve played: Browns (30th in offense DVOA), Case Keenum-led Vikings (5th), Bears (28th), Ravens (24th), and Jaguars (18th). Quarterback Alex Smith has been on fire this year and he’s led the Chiefs to the number one spot in offense DVOA. He’ll look to end Pittsburgh’s success at home this weekend and it seems that Vegas believes the Chiefs can put points on the board – they currently have the sixth-highest implied total of the week (25.25). Kelce has been Smith’s top-targeted pass-catcher (37, 23.4%) and his volume should be secure if he plays this weekend.

Bilal Powell not expected to play Week 6; Matt Forte expected to form committee with Elijah McGuire

Powell is unlikely to play this weekend as he tends to a calf strain, per Rich Cimini. The beat writer added Forte will play barring a setback and believes he’ll split the backfield work with McGuire when they take on the Patriots this Sunday. New England’s defense has struggled so far, ranking 27th in both rush and receiving RB DVOA and they’ve allowed the most PPR points to RBs this season. Although that seems like a terrific spot, the timeshare may prevent either player from capitalizing. McGuire’s big 69-yard run makes him pop on the stat sheet with 5.2 yards per carry but with that rush taken out, he’s averaging 3.2 ypc. Forte’s turf toe may work in McGuire’s favor though, as it could limit him during the game. McGuire appears to be the best bet to pick up a big enough volume to exploit the matchup but he’ll be a risky play with a capped upside unless Forte is ultimately ruled out.

Federal appeals court rules against Ezekiel Elliott, restoring six-game suspension

Elliott could begin serving his six-game suspension following Dallas’ Week 6 bye after a federal appeals court vacated Elliott’s preliminary injunction. However, the story doesn’t end there! According to Ian Rapoport, Elliott could refile in New York federal court, which could potentially keep him on the field. Fortunately, we’ll have a week to sort this mess out before it comes into play in DFS.

Tomy Brady and Rob Gronkowski returned to practice Thursday; both will play Sunday

Both players were present at practice yesterday but collected DNPs. On Thursday, they were there and they were considered limited participants. CB Eric Rowe was the only player sidelined today, it doesn’t look like he’ll return this weekend which will leave safety Patrick Chung to fill the slot corner role often. New England has used him all over the field. Out of Chung’s 72 snaps in Week 5, he rolled up inside for 39, was an outside corner for nine, and was lined up as a linebacker for 13 (per PFF). He’ll primarily be responsible for tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who’s working his way into a featured role on the Jets offense. Last week, he racked up eight targets and turned them into a 6/29/1 line. Chung has earned the 23rd-best cover grade from PFF among safeties, presenting much a tougher challenge for ASJ than the Browns. Jonathan Jones will work inside as well – he took 23 snaps in the slot last week – and he should see Jeremy Kerley quite a bit. Although he’s limited receivers to a 50% catch rate this season, he’s allowed the fourth-most yards per cover snap in the slot (2.35, per PFF).

Colts CB Nate Hairston practiced Thursday

He was a full go after missing Week 5 with a quad injury. Hairston is the Colts nickel corner, he’ll square off against Taywan Taylor the most Monday night. The rookie has been silent since being promoted, failing to catch a single pass over the past two weeks. The Titans will continue to rely heavily on Rishard Matthews and Eric Decker at receiver and Delanie Walker should pick up a ton of work in the passing game at tight end. The Colts rank 29th in TE DVOA and they’ve given up the seventh-most PPR points to the position. Rookie George Kittle went off for a 7/9/83/1 line against them this past weekend and Walker will be in a great spot to exceed that production if Marcus Mariota plays.

Ty Montgomery and Jordy Nelson practiced again Thursday; CB Kevin King and S Morgan Burnett didn't participate

Montgomery said he “felt fine” after taking some hits in Green Bay’s padded practice this afternoon. It looks like he could play this weekend but with a bye in Week 7, the Packers could hold him out for one more game. It may make sense given how well Aaron Jones played as their workhorse this past weekend. Nelson is expected to play after missing the final drive of their Week 5 game. He’ll have a tough battle with Vikings CB Xavier Rhodes, who’s 20th in yards per cover snap (0.82, per PFF) and hasn’t allowed a touchdown yet this season. If King, who remains in the concussion protocol, is sidelined, Damarious Randall would likely move outside and try to cover Stefon Diggs. With Burnett also injured, that could leave Quinten Rollins in the slot against Adam Thielen. Even if Burnett plays, he may stick at safety as he did this past weekend. Randall has allowed the 20th-most yards per cover snap (1.55) and a 116.8 passer rating while Rollins has allowed a reception all 15 times he’s been targeted in the slot this season.

Big Play WR Could Take Advantage of Single Coverage

The Falcons take on a weak Miami secondary that ranks 22nd in the league in passing yards allowed this week, and Julio Jones will certainly be getting attention on Sunday in cash games, tournaments, and from the Miami pass defense. If the Dolphins sell out to cover Julio on Sunday, watch out for Taylor Gabriel on the other side of the formation. Mohamed Sanu is expected to miss the game, and his six targets per game are likely to be distributed to Gabriel and Tight End Austin Hooper. Gabriel is a speedster who averaged 16.5 yards per reception last season, sixth in the league among receivers with at least 35 receptions, and costs only $4,600 on DraftKings and $5,800 on FanDuel.

Kenny Britt re-aggravated groin injury Thursday, considered day-to-day

Britt exited practice early today after his groin started bothering him. He was inactive this past weekend due to the injury and is questionable for Week 6 when the Browns take on the Texans. If he does play, he’ll likely start but he’s performed poorly since joining the Browns, catching just 8-of-23 targets over four games. Perhaps he would come out motivated this Sunday or maybe Kevin Hogan under center can help his bottom line, but he’s far from reliable at this point. If Britt sits, Ricardo Louis would be the de facto number one receiver although Duke Johnson leads the team in receptions (23) and receiving yards (270) while David Njoku has a team-high three touchdowns. The tight end caught two of those from Hogan and appears to have some chemistry with the quarterback. Newcomer Bryce Treggs was second to Louis with 42 snaps (Louis played 58) and he picked up six targets.

Get-Right Game Against Weak Passing Defense

Matt Ryan and the Falcons take on Miami at home this weekend with the top projected point total on the board at 28.75. While the 11 point spread in favor of Atlanta may lead people to believe the Falcons will be relying on their running game, it’s important to realize that Miami has allowed the 4th-fewest rushing yards per game, while ranking 22nd in passing yards allowed. While Ryan has had a slow start to the season this year with only 5 passing touchdowns through four games, he still ranks sixth in the league in passing yards per game and is the same QB that finished second in the league in passing yards and touchdowns last season.