DFS Alerts

Good Morning Grinders!! NFL season is finally here and there is plenty of overlay to be found on this first Sunday of football.


On DraftKings, the Millionaire Maker ( $20 entry) leads the way with a current margin of 21%. Just like on Thursday there is a large amount of overlay in Pick’Em contests this morning. The three largest prize pool Picke’Em tournaments ( $3,$27,$333) all have overlay margins above 35%. Cash grinders can also find a decent amount of overlay in the large field double ups. Three out of the five Massive Double Up tournaments have overlay offerings above 40 percent.


FanDuel also looks to have a fair amount of overlay this morning, and their headline tournament the Sunday Million ( $7 entry) is currently offering an overlay of 20%.


FantasyDraft is offering some of the biggest overlay on the slate. Both of their marquee GPPS offer grinders a chance at huge Overlay. Be sure to use Promo Code GRINDERS when you sign up. The NFL Baller on Yahoo ( $10 entry) is currently at 65% overlay and the Run and Gun ( $25 entry) on Fantasy Draft is currently at 50 percent overlay.


If you’re already signed up at the sites, hurry on over to take advantage of this +EV situation. If you’re not and you want to jump in on the action – join through one of our links and get three months of RotoGrinders Premium content where you’ll get insight and analysis from some of the best minds in all of DFS.

Wide Receiver Markus Wheaton (Chicago) is not expected to play

Wheaton was hopeful his broken finger would be healed in time for week one, but that doesn’t look to be the case. With him sidelined, both Kevin White and Kendall Wright will locked in as Mike Glennon’s main targets. Trusting either in cash games is somewhat nerve-wrecking, but the game script here sets up nicely for Chicago to be putting the ball in the air frequently (seven point home underdogs) against an Atlanta team that allowed the fifth most passing yards in the NFL last season. In fact, Kendall Wright will now likely be one of the more “chalky” value plays at Wide Receiver today.

Raiders have placed Sebastian Janikowski on IR

It may be kicker news, but it’s still DFS news (at least on FanDuel). Giorgio Tavecchio was called from the practice squad to take over kicking duties, but he’s not even available on FanDuel this weekend.

Dontrelle Inman listed as questionable for MNF

Inman is not the most exciting WR to target in DFS, but he’s been a serviceable slot option for Phillips Rivers the last few seasons. With Mike Williams already ruled out for the opening weekend, both Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams will be targeted heavily against an aggressive Denver defense. Both Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry are also slated for plenty of snaps and are intriguing options at the tight end position despite the perceived tough match-up. With the Bronco’s excellent pass-rush likely forcing the ball out of Phillip Rivers’ hand quickly, both tight-ends will be prepared to continue making a difference in the San Diego passing game.

Odell Beckham Jr. traveling with Giants to Dallas

While it’s an encouraging sign for his chances to suit up, he’s still very much questionable at this time. To complicate things even further, the Giants vs Cowboys game is the Sunday night game which really limits your pivot options if we don’t receive any more clarity. Considering his sky-high asking price and the chance that he’ll be nothing but a decoy even if he does suit up, it’s going to very tough to pull the trigger on Odell. On the other hand, Brandon Marshall has clarified that he’s ready to play this week, and Odell’s absence likely means a spike in targets for both him and Sterling Shepard. Also worth consideration is rookie tight end Evan Engram. The former Rebel racked up 926 yards and eight touchdowns in his senior year at Ole Miss last year and has the pass-catching abilities to be a fantasy weapon right out of the gates.

Ezekiel Elliott granted temporary restraining order, not expected to serve suspension this season

A judge has blocked the NFL from enforcing a six-game suspension on Elliott, granting him a temporary restraining order that will keep him on the field for the duration of the lawsuit, which will likely be all season. He was already declared eligible for Week 1 against the Giants earlier this week. It’s a tough spot to begin his year as the Giants have one of the best lines in the league – Olivier Vernon, Jean Pierre-Paul, and Damon Harrison all received high grades from Pro Football Focus in 2016, between 85.3 and 88.1 – and Landon Collins ranked third in rushing defense (94.8). Even so, Dallas likes to control the clock and volume shouldn’t be an issue for Elliott. Last season, he faced top-ten defensive lines (in terms of adjusted line yards per carry) on four occasions, including the playoffs, and tallied between 23 and 30 touches in all four. He averaged 118.75 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry – just slightly below his 5.1 season average. Interestingly, these matchups accounted for four of the six games he didn’t find the end zone though. Dallas is currently favored by four points at home, which suggests he’s expected to have favorable game flow. Elliott checks in as our RB5 this week.

Dede Westbrook (core) placed on IR

Westbrook’s injury is apparently more serious than initially realized. Jacksonville’s top three receivers will be Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee, and slot receiver Allen Hurns while Keelan Cole will operate as their fourth wide out. Robinson has a net-negative matchup rating with Kevin Johnson according to our WR/CB matchup tool (-4.94). Due to lackluster quarterback play, Robinson had a poor year in 2016. Despite finishing eighth in targets (151), he was 31st in receptions (73), 37th in yards (883), 26th in touchdowns (6), and 47th in yards per route run among 51 qualifiers (1.33). Although he had a poor 10.98% drop rate, it didn’t help that he only received 82 catchable passes, which was 19th, and essentially rendered 45.7% of his targets useless. With Jacksonville focused on keeping the ball out Blake Bortles’ hands, Robinsons’ targets are likely going to decrease in 2017. It remains to be seen whether the quality of his looks will be better, although a big improvement seems unlikely.

Thomas Rawls (ankle), Tyler Lockett (knee), and Richard Sherman (thigh) all questionable for Sunday

Coach Pete Carroll said that Lockett and Sherman will play while using more caution with Rawls, calling him a game-time decision. Seattle’s backfields is one of the messier ones from a fantasy perspective. Rawls is expected to start if he plays, but Eddie Lacy is going to work in and has the revenge narrative going in his favor. They’re high on rookie Chris Carson, so they’ll likely give him some work as well. Plus, C.J. Prosise is probably going to take most of the passing down work. If Rawls sits, it would be a nice bump for Lacy, who figures to move into the starting role. Earlier in the week, Carroll said Lacy could handle 20-25 carries if needed. Out wide, Lockett will be the third receiver behind Paul Richardson. He had the fifth-highest deep pass catch rate among receivers with at least 11 looks 20 yards or farther downfield (57.1%), hauling in eight of his 14 opportunities. Had he qualified, he would’ve tied for 41st in yards per route run with DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Lee (1.55). He has a mouthwatering matchup with Quinten Rollins on Sunday with a 34.56 matchup rating, but so do his teammates – Lockett, Richardson, and Baldwin all have top five ratings in our WR/CB matchup tool.

George Kittle (hamstring) questionable for Sunday

Kittle is listed as the starting tight end for San Fransico. The rookie is expected to get “a lot of snaps” this season when healthy, according to ESPN’s Nick Wagoner. After re-aggravating his hamstring, he got in limited practices this week. There’s some buzz surrounding Kittle in fantasy, but it looks like he won’t be 100% in his NFL debut; it may be best to hold off on targeting him for now.

Jimmie Ward (hamstring) doubtful for Sunday

The 49ers starting free safety is still rehabbing a hamstring injury. That’s really bad news for an already-weak secondary as Ward earned the highest grade among the projected starters (74.5 PFF grade). This could open up more opportunities downfield for Cam Newton and his pass catchers. Top receiver Benjamin finished 14th in yards per route run in 2016 (1.99), an indication of his upside, but was 43rd in targets at least 20 yards down field – he hauled in just five of those for 167 scoreless yards. That could change in such a favorable environment. He’ll line up across from Rashard Robinson, who earned a poor 50.4 PFF grade in 2016. It also helps that Benjamin will have a four-inch, 68-pound size advantage over the small corner.

Injury Propels Elite Stud Upward in the WR CB Ratings

The Chicago Bears defense – while under the very capable watch of Vic Fangio – may be up against a massive challenge this weekend that is two fold. 1) The offense may struggle to produce against a highly touted Falcons defensive unit and 2) They will be without Prince Amukamara in all probability. This is going to leave Julio Jones (a player they have STRESSED will be used more in the red zone this season) matched up in cover-02 press looks against the likes of Kyle Fuller and Marcus Cooper. Sure, they can provide bend but don’t break protection against the deep ball, but with a stout front seven, the Falcons offense will be forced throw at a decent clip in the short and intermediate area. Julio is too good to be held down by the available talent to cover him, and it looks like there could be some volume for him there. It’s also worth noting that Julio registered 9.69 yards per target against cover-2 man looks in 2016, according to Sports Info. Solutions inc. If the Bears decide to let the corners play off and play more traditional cover-2 zone, Julio registered the second highest air yardage total in 2016 vs. that look. I don’t see a ton of ways that the Bears can totally take away Julio in this spot, and if the Falcons hold true to their word they’ll be looking to Julio more in the red zone. I’m raising my outlook for Julio and his already high floor, and think the chances of reaching his ceiling are a bit better than what we may have thought earlier in the week.

Kenny Golladay (ankle) questionable for Sunday

Defensive end Ziggy Ansah (knee) is also listed as questionable, but he’s expected to start. If Golladay plays Sunday, he’s expected to split reps as the WR3 with T.J. Jones. Lions offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter hinted that T.J. Jones will be ahead of Golladay in the wide receiver rotation while adding that both guys would share snaps in three-wide sets. Cooter made it clear the rookie Golladay could earn a larger role as the season progresses if he can get open and be productive with his opportunities. There’s been plenty of speculation about Golladay’s use in the red zone this season after he scored twice in the first preseason game. Standing tall at 6’4”, 213 pounds, he has four inches and nearly 25 pounds on Jones, which makes him a better target in scoring position. With Anquan Boldin’s departure, 22 red zone targets are unaccounted for from 2016. Between Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, and breakout-candidate Eric Ebron, he’ll have plenty of competition near the end zone but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him on the field ahead of Jones inside the 20-yard line this weekend.

Alfred Blue (ankle) ruled out for Sunday

This was expected as he didn’t practice all week. His absence will bump D’Onta Foreman into backup duties behind Lamar Miller, who will operate as the bell cow. The question is whether he can be effective with his opportunities. He averaged 4.0 yards per carry in 2016 and only scored five times in his first season as the Texans’ workhorse. He was very poor in scoring position, averaging 2.6 yards between the 20 and ten-yard lines and 1.1 yards on rushes between the ten and five-yard lines. All five of his scores came from inside the five; he converted five-of-eight opportunities into touchdowns in that zone. Considering this matchup is expected to be one of the slowest ones on the board and has the lowest game total to match (39.5 points), Miller may not be afforded a ton of touches in areas he’s capable of scoring from, limiting his upside.

A Possible Week 1 TE Pivot in GPPs

If you’re looking to differentiate your lineup from the masses that will likely be rostering Zach Ertz this week, consider Jason Witten. A model of consistency throughout his Hall of Fame career, Witten led all NFL tight ends in snap percentage this season, logging 96% of his team’s offensive plays. Despite only recording four touchdowns last year, Witten was still a favorite target of Dak Prescott in the red zone where he ranked second among all NFL TEs in red zone market share. Taking on a familiar foe in the Giants, Witten has averaged 7.25 targets, 53 receiving yards, and has scored 13 touchdowns in 28 career games against New York.

Paying Up at Tight End

One of the few elite all-around tight ends in the NFL, Greg Olsen continues to produce despite playing in a run-first oriented offense. He draws a great matchup against a San Francisco defense that ranked 27th in pass DVOA against opposing tight ends last season. When paying a premium for tight end, it’s important to look for players that have a high floor with significant touchdown upside along with the certainty that player will be on the field for the entirety of his offensive plays. Olsen checks all of those boxes for me this week after he logged the most offensive snaps among tight ends last year.