DFS Alerts
Reliable WR for Cash Games
Not your prototypical WR 1, Baldwin spends the majority of his time in the slot, where he uses his elusiveness to get open and breakaway speed to gain yards after the catch. With Seattle’s offensive line struggles continuing to plague their running game, Seattle has transitioned into a pass-first offense; moving the chains on the ground with Russell Wilson’s legs and through the air through Baldwin and Jimmy Graham. Taking on a weak Green Bay secondary in a potentially high scoring affair in Lambeau, Baldwin should have no problems paying off his manageable price tag and should be rostered with confidence in cash games.
Will Julio Jones Go Overlooked in Week 1?
With all the attention being focused on spending up at the running back position in Week 1, Julio Jones could go relatively under-owned despite drawing a juicy matchup against a weak Bears squad that ranked 27th in pass DVOA against opposing #1 receivers last year and 31st in pass DVOA overall. With a new offensive coordinator who has stated that Jones will no longer be a decoy in the red zone, Julio’s upside is significantly boosted in this week’s matchup.
Can Todd Gurley Bounce Back?
After a forgettable 2016 campaign in which he scored only six touchdowns while managing just 3.2 yards per carry, Todd Gurley is primed for a bounceback campaign. He draws a juicy matchup against a banged up Indianapolis defense that ranked dead last in rush defense DVOA. Despite his inefficiencies as a running back, Gurley was still heavily used in the red zone, where he led all NFL running backs with a 44.8% market share. With game flow likely on his side throughout much of Sunday’s contest, Gurley presents a tremendous overall option as one of the league’s few “every down” running backs.
David Johnson or Le'Veon Bell?
After bursting on the scene two seasons ago, Johnson has taken over the lead role and is the focal point of Arizona’s high-powered offensive juggernaut that struggled to move the ball throughout the air much of last season. In a game that should play tighter than expected to open the year, Johnson should once again be leaned on to carry the load, especially in the red zone where he led all NFL running backs in red zone usage last season. Detroit’s slow pace of play could prevent a potential shootout in Week 1, but the Lions slow the pace of the game down to mask their defensive inefficiencies and ranked 29th in pass DVOA against opposing running backs last year. This bodes well for Johnson, whose pass catching abilities coupled with his red-zone usage make him a perfect option to use industry wide.
Should You Pay Up for Aaron Rodgers?
My favorite play on the slate in Week 1 just so happens to be the best quarterback in football in Aaron Rodgers. A matchup against a stingy Seattle defense may seem risky, but Rodgers has fared well against the Seahawks while playing at home over the course of his career; averaging 244 passing yards per game with a 6:0 TD:INT ratio in three games against Seattle at Lambeau Field. With a non-existent rushing attack, Rodgers will once again be forced to carry the load offensively and his ability to rush the ball makes him a worthwhile commodity to pay up for in Week 1.
Amari Cooper (knee) not on final injury report Friday
Cooper returned to a full practice Friday after being limited Thursday. Cooper was on fire in the preseason and looks primed for a massive season. The third-year receiver put on weight this offseason, which should help him in the red zone. His partner Michael Crabtree has outscored him in each of his first two seasons, but 2017 could mark a shift in their scoring distribution. Their matchup with Tennessee has shootout potential and carries a 51-point total. Cooper will line up across from Logan Ryan, a matchup that has a favorable 23.31 rating in our WR/CB tool. Reigning defensive player of the year Khalil Mack wasn’t on the report either. He was held out of Wednesday’s practice with a knee issue, but it appears it was simply a rest day.
As reported by: ESPN
Aaron Donald officially ruled out for Sunday
The Rams DT will continue to hold out. Donald was Pro Football Focus’ top-ranked interior defensive lineman in 2016, earning a ridiculous 98.5 grade. Naturally, his absence will be a boost for the Colts’ Scott Tolzien-led offense. Old man Frank Gore takes an upgrade as well, but it doesn’t make him a very exciting DFS option. He averaged 3.9 yards per carry last season and only scored four times while touchdown vulture Robert Turbin found the paint on seven occasions. Considering Donald was fourth in the league in hurries last season (31), the Rams defense takes a downgrade in fantasy. Although they’ll still be a popular choice; we’re currently projecting them to be the highest-owned defense in Week 1.
As reported by: Joe Curley LeSean McCoy not on final injury report
He was limited due to an illness Thursday but he returned to a full practice Friday and he’s ready for Week 1. As expected, Tyrod Taylor and Jordan Matthews weren’t listed either. All three guys will start Sunday against the Jets. McCoy is expected to get all the work he can handle in a great matchup. Although New York was one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL in 2016, it’s doubtful they’ll be such a force this year. Their only front-seven starter to grade well last season was Leonard Williams (87.5 PFF grade) while they’ll roll with four guys who earned below-average or poor scores. McCoy should get a ton of volume and compete for the most touches around the league this week while having a better chance for goal line work with Mike Gillislee’s departure. Naturally, he projects as our RB3, a place he figures to be quite a bit this year. When the Bills do attack through the air, Matthews should be busy. Our WR/CB matchup tool highlights his excellent matchup with slot corner Buster Skrine, providing him the 13th-best rating of the week (29.88).
As reported by: Buffalo Bills PR Danny Shelton (knee) officially listed as questionable Friday, expected to play Sunday
The Browns nose tackle will be ready for their Week 1 matchup with Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers after getting in limited practices this week. Shelton ranked 15th among 125 qualifying interior lineman in 2016 (85.2) and he was particularly effective against the run, checking in at eighth (87.8). His presence will be a big boost for a rushing defense that will be without rookie defensive end Myles Garrett. Bell is expected to receive his normal workload despite missing training camp and the preseason. With the Steelers favored by nine points, he’s expected to have a favorable game script. Bell narrowly edges out David Johnson as our RB1 this week and he even tops our points-per-dollar projections at his position on FanDuel even though he costs $9.3k.
As reported by: Nat Ulrich Jamison Crowder (hip flexor, questionable) says he'll be ready for Sunday
He was added to the injury report Thursday and officially considered questionable, but the third-year receiver declared the injury to be minor while adding he’s ready to rock in Week 1. With DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon out of D.C., Crowder finds himself as the WR2 with Terrelle Pryor serving as the Redskins’ WR1. He may have a chemistry advantage over Pryor as it’s his third season playing with Kirk Cousins though. Crowder made marked improvements last season, turning in 847 yards and seven touchdowns on 97 targets. 67 of those looks and all seven scores came from the slot, so it’ll be interesting to see how he adjusts to lining up out wide in two-receiver sets this season. It seems likely he’ll slip back into the position when Washington has three wide outs on the field. Crowder boasted the fifth-lowest drop rate out of the slot in 2016 (4.17%) as he hauled in 44-of-46 catchable passes. In the end, he was ninth in total yards (618) and in yards per route run (1.55), a nice indication of the upside he brings to the table. In other good news, Crowder has a favorable matchup rating with Patrick Robinson, earning a 24.76 in our WR/CB matchup tool.
As reported by: JP Finlay This Quarterback is Simply Too Cheap
Are you all ready for the Carson Wentz breakout year? Because it’s coming. The big fella can really play, and I will be riding him until the sites drop his price, especially on DraftKings, where his salary is silly low and offers us safety and massive upside this week. Wentz’s price also allows you to take one of David Johnson or Le’Veon Bell, or both, should you want incredibly high floors (and upside for that matter) from your RBs. There is a lot to like about Wentz, not only Week 1 but this season overall. The Eagles have upgraded their receiving core, losing Jordan Matthews and adding Alshon Jeffrey and Torrey Smith. They should also see a more consistent running game with LeGarrette Blount taking over first and second down duties. Wentz started to show what he could do towards the end of last season, averaging over a fantasy point more per game (on DK) over the second half of the season, while also logging over seven more passing attempts per game during that time frame. Expect more of the same this year, as the Eagles seem to be comfortable letting Wentz loose in the pocket. Washington was a bottom third defensive team last year, and it’s interesting to see Philadelphia enter the game as a road favorite. This is a solid opportunity to pay down at QB on both sites, but especially on DraftKings. Wentz is a great play in all formats.
Markus Wheaton (finger) questionable for Sunday, Prince Amukamara (ankle) considered doubtful
Guard Kyle Long (ankle) is also questionable for Chicago’s season opener but beat writer Rich Campbell said it would be a surprise if he played. If he misses, Hroniss Grasu would start at center while Whitehair moves to guard. Grasu earned a poor 51.2 PFF grade over eight games in his rookie season but didn’t make an appearance last year. He performed well in the preseason though and several beat writers believe the potential Amukamara absence is a bigger deal. That’s good news for Jordan Howard, who the Bears will lean on quite a bit with Mike Glennon at quarterback. Howard averaged 5.2 yards per carry in 2016 while Atlanta’s offensive line ranked 24th in adjusted line yards per carry (4.47) according to football outsiders. On the defensive side of things, the Bears may struggle to contain Julio Jones without Amukamara, their best cornerback. Kyle Fuller, who missed all of 2016, is expected to replace Amukamara in the starting lineup.
As reported by: Bob LeGere Eric Berry out for season with ruptured Achilles
An MRI confirmed Berry’s injury on Friday, which will end his season. It’s a major blow to the Chief’s defense and will provide an upgrade to opposing passing games. Berry was particularly effective covering tight ends. In 2016, Kansas city allowed the third-fewest receptions to the position (5.8) and the sixth-fewest yards (46.5) according to Football Outsiders and he helped limit Gronk to two receptions for 33 yards Thursday night. In Week 2, the Chiefs host Zach Ertz and the Eagles.
As reported by: Ian Rapoport Corey Davis (hamstring) will be limited Sunday
The rookie put in a solid week of practice but coach Mike Mularkey suggested he would only use Davis in “limited situations” against Oakland. Quarterback Marcus Mariota will primarily target Rishard Matthews, Eric Decker, and Delanie Walker in the passing game. Both Decker and Walker are big red zone threats, although it’ll be Decker’s first NFL game catching passes from Mariota. Some analytics from 2016 suggest Matthews could be in store for a huge year following a 2016 campaign in which he became the Titans’ top receiver and finished with a 65/945/9 line on 108 targets. According to Pro Football Focus, he ended up eighth in the predictive yards per pass route run metric (2.13) and Marcus Mariota connected with him 44% of the time he targeted him at least 20 yards downfield, which was good for fifth. Even more impressive, Matthews didn’t drop a single catchable target at that depth (11 total). Paired together, these stats highlight Matthews big-play upside that led to three games over 100 yards last season and a touchdown in eight of his final 12 games. His floor was scary low – he bottomed out against Denver with 1 reception for 26 yards – and he ended up hauling in 60.1% of his total targets. However, more fault seems to lie in Mariota than Matthews as the wide out only dropped one catchable ball all season. Much has been made of the young quarterback’s development heading into 2017 and if expectations are realized, it could elevate Matthews’ fantasy stock significantly. Although tight end Delanie Walker will vie for balls inside the 20 – he beat out Matthews 16-15 last season – Matthews’ efficiency in the area will work in his favor. Not only did he post the highest catch rate among all players targeted at least 13 times in the red zone (80.0%), he caught 100% of the balls tossed his way inside of the ten, converting five-of-six into touchdowns.To make matters even better, Matthews is expected to see plenty of Raiders cornerback David Amerson on Sunday, who earned an average 70.7 grade from PFF. Opponents loved picking on Amerson in 2016, he was targeted the tenth-most among cornerbacks (93), gave up the fifth-most receptions (60), the fourth-most yards (809), and allowed the 11th-most yards per snap in coverage (1.49). Another positive sign: the OAK-TEN matchup has the second-highest game total on the board (50.5 points) and the 2.5-point spread favoring the Titans provides them the fourth-highest implied total (26.5 points) and indicates a potential shootout. Clearly, there’s a lot of data working in Matthews favor heading into Week 1, which makes him appear severely underpriced on DraftKings at $4,200 ($6,100 on FanDuel). While he may not be the safest target for cash games, he provides plenty of upside in tournaments. He may be popular though; we’re currently projecting his ownership on DraftKings at 12.5%.
As reported by: ESPN John Brown expected to be Cardinals' number two receiver Sunday
Although Jaron Brown was listed ahead of John on the initial depth chart, beat writer Josh Weinfuss believes John will be the WR2 against Detroit this weekend and “play a major role.” He has a nice spot against the Lions, who gave up the second-most passing touchdowns a season ago (33). While his individual matchup isn’t as good as Larry Fitzgerald’s, it’s a net positive one with Nevin Lawson with a 9.07 rating in our WR/CB matchup tool. John had a down year in 2016 as he battled health issues but he’s reportedly fully healthy and ready to roll in Week 1. He flashed a little upside in the preseason when he found the box twice against the Ravens. He only caught 4-of-14 targets at least 20 yards down field last season for 91 yards, a year prior he hauled in eight deep passes and turned them into 379 yards. Fortunately, the 2015 version is expected to be back. With plenty of focus on Fitzgerald in DFS, John Brown is an interesting GPP pivot with big-play potential in Week 1.
As reported by: ESPN