DFS Alerts

Packers promote WR Max McCaffrey to active roster, indicating at least one of the injured receivers won't play

The Packers didn’t offer any updates on Jordy Nelson (ribs), Davante Adams (ankle), or Geronimo Allison (hamstring) today, but they signed McCaffrey off of their practice squad. This most likely means at least one of them will be out tomorrow. Nelson is the primary candidate to be inactive as Davante Adams and Geronimo Allison are expected to suit up. This is an important story to monitor tomorrow as they’ll all be game-day decisions. Randall Cobb remains the safest receiver, he and tight end Jared Cook should see plenty of targets tomorrow with the other three pass catchers banged up. This also opens up some extra receiving volume for running back Ty Montgomery.

Christine Michael (back) added to injury report, now questionable for Sunday

Michael only played four offensive snaps last week and didn’t earn a single touch. He must have gotten hurt in practice to be added this late, but he won’t be much of a factor on Sunday if he plays. Green Bay’s backfield is firmly Ty Montgomery’s, who played 78% of the offensive snaps last week. It seems his true backup is Aaron Ripkowski, who played 31% of the offensive snaps against the Cowboys and picked up four carries for 24 yards in the process. Although Ripkowski had taken some goal line work (and touchdowns) from Montgomery in previous weeks, he didn’t have a touch inside the 20-yard line in Dallas. Montgomery had three total touches in the red zone and scored two touchdowns inside the 3-yard line, which is an encouraging sign for his fantasy prospects in Atlanta. TyMont has become increasingly involved in the passing game – he caught six of seven targets for 34 yards against the Cowboys – and Atlanta is very poor at defending receiving running backs. They’ve allowed the most receptions (6.59), 2nd-most receiving yards (52.76), and 2nd-most receiving touchdowns (0.35) per game to the position. Montgomery is in a great spot, especially for full PPR scoring.

Ben Roethlisberger has higher passer rating than any other QB New England faced this season

Considering he ranks 11th (95.4 rating), it may be fair to say that New England’s pass defense has hardly been tested. When they were up against a good opponent, which was rare, they struggled. Throughout the season, they faced two quarterbacks with a passer rating in the top 14, both players threw for at least 348 yards and two touchdowns. First, Ryan Tannehill (12th, 93.5) went for 387 yards, two scores, and two picks, although a decent portion of those stats came in garbage time. Later on, Russell Wilson (14th, 92.6) went off for 348 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Some of their other opponents include the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brock Osweiler (twice), and Jared Goff. To be fair, they faced Andy Dalton (15th, 91.8) and he was held in check to a degree. He still completed 68% of his passes for 254 yards, one score, and zero interceptions, though. While the Patriots have held opposing quarterbacks to the 8th-lowest rating and allowed the 8th-fewest passing touchdowns, those stats may be misleading or at least a little skewed based on their schedule. In fact, Football Outsiders ranks New England’s schedule as the easiest among all 32 NFL teams this season. That can explain why they rank 23rd in pass DVOA despite allowing the 8th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks per game.

The question now is whether Ben Roethlisberger can overcome his road jitters, or whatever causes him to perform markedly worse outside of Pittsburgh. Given the way DraftKings has structured their pricing this week, it’s a worthy inquiry. He’s just $5.8K, which is $1.3K lower than Tom Brady in 3rd place and $2.3K behind the most expensive quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. As a result, he projects as our top points-per-dollar QB on the site (3.31 pts/$ vs. 2.93 pts/$ for both Brady and Rodgers). It’s been well noted that he’s averaged 1.1 touchdowns per game on the road whereas he throws 3.3 per week at home. He wasn’t great last weekend at Arrowhead Stadium, he threw for 224 yards and an interception while failing to find paint despite several trips to the red zone. Kansas City ranked 7th in pass DVOA, though, which played a big role in those results. At the same time, they’re 26th in rush DVOA, so Roethlisberger ended up handing the ball off to Le’Veon Bell 30 times. New England is the opposite, they rank 4th in rush DVOA. They held Bell to 81 rushing yards on 3.9 yards per carry earlier this year. Over the course of the season, they repeatedly stuffed runners in the red zone, allowing just six total rushing touchdowns, which is the lowest mark in the league. Even though Bell is an incredible player, Pittsburgh may need to rely on Ben’s arm to score this Sunday. Considering Bell picked up 10 receptions the last time these two teams met (with Landry Jones at quarterback) he could be an easy, short target for Roethlisberger to find in space and/or in scoring position. We’ve seen what Bell can do with room and any yards after catch or touchdowns he scores that way would obviously pad Roethlisberger’s stats. Considering New England has allowed the most receptions and the 3rd-most receiving yards per game to the position, this is a nice spot for that connection to thrive. Pittsburgh might choose to get Bell the ball through the air instead of on the ground and Roethlisberger may not need to take big shots down field in order to be productive. Another thing in Ben’s favor is that Pittsburgh’s top receiver, Antonio Brown, has been successful against New England’s best corner, Malcolm Butler, in the past. Across two career meetings, he’s caught 14 of 20 targets in his coverage for 193 yards and a touchdown despite having Landry Jones throwing to him in one of those matchups. In this spot, those two could bail out Roethlisberger’s fantasy day even if he doesn’t perform at his best.

Although it may have been easy to ignore Roethlisberger last week and may be somewhat easy to do on a site like FanDuel this week, where QB pricing is closer together, he’s definitely worth a deeper look for tournaments on DraftKings based on his salary. Rostering him may be a little nerve-wracking when considering his erratic road splits, but it’s at least a little comforting to know he’s facing a pass defense that’s been exploited in the rare games they were truly tested.

Packers DBs Quinten Rollins (neck, concussion) and Morgan Burnett (quad) both questionable for Sunday

Rollins is still in the concussion protocol. While he isn’t a shutdown corner, his presence would make the secondary better. Plus, he would presumably take over for Damarious Randall and guard Taylor Gabriel on the outside. Burnett would be a tough loss for Green Bay as he’s Pro Football Focus’ 9th-highest graded safety this season. Matt Ryan has been excellent this season and he’s got a fully loaded (and mostly healthy) offense, he’ll be in a terrific spot Sunday, especially if Burnett can’t suit up. Although Ryan projects as our QB2 behind Aaron Rodgers, we’re expecting him to have the highest ownership on both DraftKings (33%) and FanDuel (36%).

Jordy Nelson (ribs), Davante Adams (ankle), and Geronimo Allison (hamstring) all officially questionable for Sunday

The three receivers are shaping up as game-time decisions, but it’s possible we find out whether they’ll play after practice tomorrow. Nelson seems to be more doubtful than questionable and he’s the least likely to suit up of the bunch. Adams said his sprain isn’t as bad as the one he dealt with last season but he needs to test it out tomorrow and/or Sunday to know if he can play. If he does, it’s possible he’s limited in some capacity. Allison’s injury appears to be the least concerning and he’s expected to play. Coach Mike McCarthy has said that all three would probably sit if this was the regular season, which makes Randall Cobb the safest receiver option on the team in fantasy. Rodgers may need to rely on him quite a bit along with tight end Jared Cook. They could each exceed ten targets Sunday and score. As a result of the situation, both Cobb and Cook are expected to have the highest ownership at their respective positions; we’re projecting Cobb to be in over half of all tournament lineups on FanDuel and DraftKings.

Chris Hogan (thigh) walking with a "solid" limp Friday

Hogan injured his thigh against the Texans but he’s fully expected to play on Sunday. Beat writer Greg Bedard noted that he was walking with a “solid” limp in the locker room on Friday, so there is a possibility the thigh issue could impact his performance. If it does, Brady may provide some extra work for Julian Edelman, Malcolm Mitchell, assuming he plays, and Martellus Bennett. It’s not a huge shift as Hogan averages 3.8 targets per game, including the playoffs. He was a big part of the Patriots game plan against the Texans, though. He caught four of four targets for 95 yards prior to his early exit. Mitchell could be in line for that deep work from Brady with Hogan hobbled up a bit. While Hogan is shaping up as a more risky play, Mitchell is beginning to look like a decent contrarian tournament option.

Malcolm Mitchell "trending in the right direction" to play Sunday

Mitchell (knee) is officially questionable but ESPN’s Mike Reiss believes he could be active tomorrow. He wasn’t last week as he was rehabbing his injury and the Patriots had four other receivers healthy. Chris Hogan is now dealing with a thigh injury, so New England could dress Mitchell to ensure depth at the position, or they may put him back in three-wide sets. Hopefully we’ll get a better idea of how New England intends to use Mitchell prior to lock. Towards the end of the season, Mitchell put together a four-week stretch with at least four receptions and 40 yards in each game and scored four times. He definitely has skill and Brady trusts him. However, they have a full rotation of receivers plus Michael Floyd. If he’s active, he’ll have a low floor but could be a sneaky tournament option people aren’t thinking about. We know he can score, so he’s worth a look as a contrarian play, especially with Hogan banged up. Mitchell projects as the WR2 on the Patriots – ahead of Hogan and behind Edelman – but his ownership is projected at just 7% on DraftKings and 4% on FanDuel. That could turn into a huge advantage on a two-game slate, but it’s a risky bet for sure.

Taylor Gabriel removed from injury report

Gabriel had limited practices this week but he’s all set for Sunday’s showdown with the Packers. With cornerback Quinten Rollins (concussion) questionable, Gabriel is an exciting tournament option this week as he’ll be matched up with Damarious Randall for most of the game should Rollins sit. Randall has the worst grade among starting cornerbacks playing Sunday (by far) and he’s allowed the most fantasy points per route run. Gabriel has earned the third-most fantasy points per route run. His issue is volume, but he should be good for five or six targets and he’s always capable of breaking off a big play with one of them. His style of play naturally comes with a low floor, so he’s definitely a better for tournaments than cash games.

Ladarius Green (concussion) traveled with team to New England, still not expected to play

Green remains in the concussion protocol but he had a limited practice on Friday and made the trip to New England with the squad. He wasn’t able to practice with the first team today, which is an indication that Pittsburgh’s coaching staff is fully preparing to go into the game with Jesse James as their starter. Due to the dearth of options at tight end this weekend, James projects as our TE3 and he’s squarely in play. However, we’re not projecting a large gap between his ownership levels and that of the clear top option, Jared Cook, meaning there is a limited advantage to be gained from a game theory perspective by rostering the lesser tight end. On FanDuel their prices are only a $1,000 apart, so it’s not going to free up too much extra salary, but on DraftKings their prices are $2,400 apart, which makes a big difference given the tight pricing on DK this weekend. James set a career-high last week with 83 yards. His six targets were the most he’s received since Week 5 when he posted a 6/43/1 line. If Malcolm Butler can successfully shut down Antonio Brown and Logan Ryan handles Eli Rogers, both plausible situations to an extent, James could pick up more targets than normal and post a nice line. New England has done well defending the position this year, they were in the top 8 in fantasy points allowed per game to tight ends. James certainly won’t have the floor or ceiling of Jared Cook, who should be in line for extra work himself with all of the injuries plaguing the Green Bay receiving corps, but he’s worth a look in tournaments. It’s probably better to use him at DraftKings over FanDuel given the pricing at the position.

Julio Jones (toe) has limited practice Friday, won't be limited Sunday

According to head coach Dan Quinn, Jones will be a full go this Sunday when the Falcons host the Packers. Jones re-aggravated a toe sprain last weekend against the Seahawks which limited him to 58% of the offensive snaps. Barring any setbacks prior to or during the game, he should get his normal workload, which is good news from a fantasy perspective. Jones is expected to be shadowed by Ladarius Gunter, who allowed Dez Bryant to catch six of eight targets in his coverage for 85 yards and two touchdowns last weekend. Julio definitely has an excellent matchup, but his use in the red zone and as a scorer in general limits his ceiling in comparison to the other high-end option at receiver, Antonio Brown. Jones has accumulated 10 red zone targets while Brown has received 18 looks inside the 20-yard line. Including the playoffs, Jones has scored seven touchdowns, which is a 17% share of his team’s total receiving touchdowns, and he’s yet to score more than one in a game. Brown has 14 total scores, good for a 40% share of Pittsburgh’s receiving touchdowns, and four games with at least two. On the positive side, we’ve seen Matt Ryan make more of an effort with Jones down the stretch and will undoubtedly rely on him with the NFC Championship on the line; Ryan looked Jones way three times in the red zone in Week 17, for example. Atlanta just has a lot of playmakers whereas the Steelers essentially have two. Of course, Brown will also have to deal with Roethlisberger’s tendency to play much worse on the road. Even so, Brown has the highest ceiling and median projection in our model. He also has a lower ownership projection than Jones, which makes him an enticing tournament play over Jones as he could offer a slight advantage from a game theory perspective. Jones projects as our WR2 this week.

Davante Adams noncommittal on playing status for Sunday

Although he’s expected to suit up, Adams couldn’t guarantee it, saying he won’t know if he’s playing until he tests his ankle out this weekend. On the bright side, he the sprain isn’t as bad as the one he dealt with last season, but it could keep him on a snap count if he plays on Sunday. Randall Cobb and Jared Cook should both be supplied with a solid volume of targets even if Adam is able to get on the field. Running back Ty Montgomery, who’s become increasingly involved in the passing game, could also pick up more work as a receiver. Atlanta is awful at defending running backs through the air – they’ve allowed the most receptions (6.59), 2nd-most receiving yards (52.76), and 2nd-most receiving touchdowns (0.35) per game to the position – which puts Montgomery in a fantastic spot Sunday.

Hogan (thigh), Mitchell (knee), Bennett (knee), and Amendola (ankle) have limited practice Thursday

Hogan, Bennett, and Amendola are all expected to play, but Mitchell may be inactive again this week. Hogan and Bennett are both viable fantasy options. Hogan was on his way to a big game against the Houston Texans prior to exiting in the third quarter, he was working with a 4/95/0 line with plenty of game clock left. He’s better utilized as a boom-or-bust tournament option. Bennett has been dealing with injuries for the past couple of months and he won’t be playing at 100%. He’s still the second best tight end available on Sunday.

Julio Jones (toe) didn't practice Thursday, Taylor Gabriel (foot) limited

Jones isn’t going to practice tomorrow either but he will play Sunday, the Falcons just want to be careful with his toe injury. There is definitely some risk involved with rostering the stud receiver this weekend considering he was limited last weekend because of his toe and it’s still bothering him. That said, his ceiling will be pretty high in a terrific matchup. He’s expected to be shadowed by Ladarius Gunter who failed to contain Dez Bryant last week; Bryant caught six of eight targets in Gunter’s coverage for 85 yards and a pair of scores. Opposite Jones, Taylor Gabriel will see Damarious Randall for most of the afternoon if Quinten Rollins (neck, concussion) isn’t cleared to play. Randall has the worst grade among starting corners remaining in the playoffs and allows the most fantasy points per route run. Gabriel has earned the 3rd-most fantasy points per route, behind only Jones and Antonio Brown. His primary problem is volume, but he should be good for five or six targets. With the way Matt Ryan spreads the ball around, Jones (7) has accounted for just 17.1% of the team’s receiving touchdowns while Gabriel (6) has a 14.6% share, and there are five total players on the team with at least four receiving scores. The NFC Championship has a game total of 61 points and the Falcons have a team total of 32.25 points. Atlanta is expected to score a lot, which is great news for both Jones and Gabriel, they’ll just have to compete with the other receivers and the running backs for those scoring opportunities on arguably the deepest offensive team on the two-game slate.

Jordy Nelson practices without pads Thursday

In other words, he isn’t cleared for contact yet. He’s clearly trying his best to play on Sunday, but it still seems unlikely. Coach Mike McCarthy expects Davante Adams and Geronimo Allison to suit up even though he added they probably wouldn’t they were playing a regular season game. Going by that mindset, Nelson has a better chance to get on the field than he normally would. We probably won’t know for sure until Saturday, but even if ends up active, he will most likely be limited in some capacity.

Ladarius Green (concussion, illness) didn't practice Thursday

Green remains in the concussion protocol and should be considered very doubtful for Sunday’s game in New England. He was able to practice in a limited fashion Wednesday but was held out today. He was listed on the injury report with an illness, so it’s not clear if he was held out for that reason, the concussion, or both. If he’s ultimately unable to suit up, Jesse James would start at tight end and be a viable option in GPPs given the lack of quality choices at the position. Still, our ownership projections don’t display a large gap between James and Jared Cook – 38% vs. 20% on FanDuel and 38% vs. 22% on DraftKings – meaning there’s not a huge advantage to be gained from a game theory perspective by pivoting to the lesser TE. We’ll learn more regarding Green’s status when Pittsburgh practices tomorrow but at this point, he’s not expected to play Sunday