DFS Alerts

Davante Adams and Geronimo Allison won't practice until Saturday, both expected to play Sunday

Buyer beware. Coach Mike McCarthy told the media that Adams (ankle) and Allison (hamstring) probably wouldn’t be playing if it were the regular season, but he implied both would suit up for the NFC Championship. It looks like both injuries are serious enough that it could affect their play. They’ll get the next couple of days with the rehab group prior to joining the rest of the team for Saturday’s practice. Fellow receiver Jordy Nelson (ribs) was limited in practice again Thursday, his status for Sunday is still up in the air. With all the injuries surrounding this receiving corps, Randall Cobb may be the best bet. His ownership is expected to be through the roof across the industry, though. We’re projecting it above 50% on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Malcolm Butler expected to shadow Antonio Brown Sunday

Brown has gotten the better of Butler in two career meetings (not including that commercial they’re in together, we don’t know how that ends … yet). Per Pro Football Focus’ Mike Clay, Brown has caught 14 of 20 targets for 193 yards and a touchdown in his coverage. In their one matchup this season, Brown posted a 7/106/0 line for the game despite having Landry Jones at quarterback – it was actually the only time he’s failed to score a touchdown against the Patriots in his career (four games). This time around he’ll have Ben Roethlisberger under center. Although he has to worry about Ben’s well-documented home/away splits, he managed 108 yards in Arrowhead Stadium last weekend and New England’s pass defense is weaker than Kansas City’s. NE ranks 23rd in pass DVOA while KC’s is 7th. They’re on the opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to stopping ground attacks as well, NE is 4th whereas KC is 26th. We saw Pittsburgh exploit the Chiefs by pounding the ball with Le’Veon Bell 30 times on their way to the victory. There’s a good chance they could do the opposite this Sunday and lean on Roethlisberger’s arm, despite being on the road.

From a fantasy perspective, one may end up choosing between Antonio Brown and Julio Jones at WR, if unable to squeeze both of their high salaries in a lineup. Jones obviously has the better spot on paper: higher game total (61 vs. 51), he’s at home, and he has a much more favorable individual matchup with Ladarius Gunter, who was picked apart by Dez Bryant for a 6/85/2 line on eight targets in his coverage. Sure, that sounds great, but when it comes to volume, the edge goes to Antonio Brown. Atlanta’s offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan’s scheme requires Matt Ryan to spread the ball around, particularly when it comes to scoring. Including the playoffs, the Falcons have five different players with at least four receiving touchdowns while the Steelers have just one: Antonio Brown. His 14 TDs are good for 40% of the team’s total receiving touchdowns. Jones, on the other hand, has accounted for just 17% of his squad’s scoring catches with half of Brown’s total (7). The other thing to consider, and monitor, is Jones’ toe injury. He was held to 58% of the offensive snaps last weekend and he’ll be limited most of this week in practice. We should get some more substantial updates on his playing form by this weekend, but even if he’s expected to play his full snaps, there is a very reasonable argument to support Brown over Jones. Including their pair of running backs, Atlanta has a ton of mouths to feed and everyone contributes, Pittsburgh runs their offense primarily through Brown and Bell. If Roethlisberger can get over his road jitters, Brown has a good shot at scoring, and if he doesn’t, Brown should still pick up plenty of catches and yards along the way – he’s done it against Butler twice before. Jones arguably has a lower touchdown expectation based on a fiercer competition for TDs from his teammates. Although it’s a close call between the two stud receivers, our model currently projects Brown as our WR1.

Geronimo Allison (undisclosed) didn't practice Wednesday

In another blow to Green Bay, Allison was not seen at practice today and ESPN’s Rob Demovsky reports he’ll be added to Green Bay’s lengthy injury report. It’s not yet clear what he’ll be added for, but the Packers are surely hoping it’s nothing serious. Jordy Nelson is doubtful and Davante Adams is very questionable as he won’t be practicing until Saturday. If Nelson and Adams are out, Cobb would be the top receiver and may be forced to the outside more than normal. Should Adams play and Cobb remain in the slot, he’d have a great matchup. Atlanta has allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers this season. Green Bay’s receiving situation may be the most important one to follow this week.

Martellus Bennett (knee) has limited practice Wednesday

Similar to Chris Hogan, he was injured in New England’s game with the Texans but said he was good to go afterward. He’ll play Sunday but he won’t be at 100%, he’s already been dealing with nagging ankle and shoulder injuries for the past couple of months at this point. Even so, with few alternates available, he projects as our TE2. He gets red zone work and is definitely worth consideration as a pivot from mega-chalky Jared Cook. Be sure to check back on our ownership projections later this week to see where these guys fall across the industry.

Ladarius Green (concussion) has limited practice Wednesday

Green remains in the protocol but this is a positive sign. Given his history of concussions, there’s still a chance he’s unable to be cleared to play on Sunday. If he is able to suit up, he’ll be an interesting tournament option on the upcoming two-game slate that features very few tight end options. Jared Cook will be a super chalky choice, so there will be some merit to a pivot in order to differentiate GPP lineups. A few things still need to happen: Green would need to have a good week of practice, get cleared, and it’d be best to have some assurance he’ll get a normal complement of snaps (or close to it) for this to be a viable play. It’s definitely a situation to keep an eye on.

Malcolm Mitchell (knee) and Chris Hogan (thigh) both practiced Wednesday

Both players were limited today. Mitchell was a scratched for the divisional round, partially due to his injury and partially due to Danny Amendola’s return, which provided the Patriots with four fully healthy receivers. It’s unclear at this point if he’ll be active for their game with the Steelers. Hogan was forced from their win over the Houston Texans after suffering a thigh injury, although he said was fine immediately following the game. He’s fully expected to play Sunday. Hogan offers big play ability for tournament rosters, but he isn’t a strong cash game option due to his low floor and volume. He performed well against the Texans, hauling in all four of his targets for 95 yards prior to exiting in the third quarter.

Julio Jones held out of practice Wednesday

This was a precaution as Jones re-aggravated his sprained toe against the Seahawks. He’s going to play on Sunday in a mouthwatering matchup with Green Bay’s poor pass defense. He’s projected to be shadowed by Ladarius Gunter as Green Bay has used him in this capacity against both Odell Beckham and Dez Bryant. What Gunter lacks for speed he makes up with in physicality. While he managed to use his skillset well to contain OBJ, he got absolutely worked by the more physical Bryant. Per Pro Football Focus’ Nathan Jahnke, in Gunter’s coverage, Bryant caught six of eight targets for 85 yards and two touchdowns. Unfortunately for the Packers, Gunter may be their best option against Jones with Quinten Rollins still in the concussion protocol. It’ll be important to track Jones’ progress throughout the week because his injury limited him to 58% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps last week. If he’s expected to be a full-go come Sunday, he’ll be a terrific option across the board.

Davante Adams likely won't practice until Saturday; status in doubt for this week

Adams is working with fellow injured WR Jordy Nelson in the rehab group and Packers Head Coach Mike McCarthy stated that he likely would not practice until the day before their game against the Falcons. This certainly puts his status into question and would be a huge impact to a Packers passing game that will already likely be without their top WR. Geronimo Allison would receive a huge boost in value with Randall Cobb becoming the #1 WR. It could also mean an increased role for Jeff Janis but it’s perhaps Jared Cook who will benefit the most as Rodgers continues to look his way early and often. We’ll keep you updated on Adams’s status whenever we learn more.

Devonta Freeman has scored 11 touchdowns in his last six home games

Freeman is on a ridiculous scoring streak at home, he’s scored in each of his last six games, four of which were multi-touchdown outings. While he struggled to get much going on the ground against Seattle last weekend, only managing 42 yards, he still found the end zone and added four receptions for 80 yards. Freeman’s partner in crime, Tevin Coleman, also scored against the Seahawks on a 14-yard reception. Despite it being Coleman’s 14th touchdown of the season, it was only his fourth at home. It highlights an interesting trend in Atlanta’s backfield, which could be useful for this weekend’s two-gamer. Freeman also has exactly 14 touchdowns this season and just two of them came in games outside of Atlanta. They essentially have the opposite home/away scoring splits – Freeman with 12 at home, two on the road; Coleman with four at home and ten on the road. It’s possible this is somewhat of a coincidence and it’s worth considering Coleman’s three-game absence in the middle of the season. However, we have a full season sample and two of those games Coleman missed were on the road and Freeman didn’t score in either. In his lone home game without Coleman, Freeman scored twice. It seems pretty evident that Freeman is a much better scorer at home, and as a result, Coleman scores less. Over five games in the Georgia Dome when Atlanta was favored by 5.0 points or more, Devonta averaged 1.6 rushing touchdowns, 15.6 carries, 81.8 rushing yards, 3.6 receptions, and 41.0 receiving yards. All of those numbers drop outside of the split: 0.27 rushing touchdowns, 13.55 carries, 60.91 rushing yards, 3.27 receptions, and 23.36 receiving yards. In terms of PPR points, his averages in the split equate to 25.48 points whereas that number comes down to 14.43 outside of it. The difference is striking. For comparison, Coleman’s stats in the same five games are good for 10.42 PPR points and with the extra touchdowns, he averages more than Freeman in the other 11 with 17.38 PPR points. Predicting the split in scoring opportunities and fantasy production between Coleman and Freeman could possibly be a matter of knowing whether Atlanta is home and what the spread is. This weekend, the Falcons host the Packers as 5-point favorites. Freeman will have the edge in touches, he’s had more carries in all but one game they played together this season and he’s hauled in 27 passes to Coleman’s 15 over the past seven games (after Coleman returned from injury). Plus, he’s hot in Atlanta right now. He’s the 2nd-most expensive back across the industry but his price is reasonable enough that he could easily exceed value.

Taylor Gabriel could have best WR/CB matchup this weekend

Packers starting LCB, Quinten Rollins, remains in the concussion protocol. If he’s ultimately unable to suit up, Damarious Randall is expected to make another start. Taylor Gabriel, Atlanta’s starting RWR, lines up on Randall’s side for roughly half of his routes. Plus, Green Bay has been using Ladarius Gunter to shadow opposing WR1s, meaning Gabriel could be paired with Randall for most of the game. It’s worth noting Green Bay may want to change this strategy; Per Pro Football Focus’ Nathan Jahnke, in Gunter’s coverage, Bryant caught six of eight targets for 85 yards and a two touchdowns. However, the Packers may not have much of a choice with limited depth at corner; it’s doubtful they’ll want Randall on Julio Jones. Through the wild card round, Randall had a 39.1 grade from Pro Football Focus, the lowest of any remaining cornerback by far. He also allowed the most fantasy points per route defended (0.51), while Gabriel, utilizing his big-play ability, has earned the 3rd-most fantasy points per route run (0.51) of any receiver playing this weekend, trailing only Julio Jones (0.56) and Antonio Brown (0.54) – not bad company. Volume is Gabriel’s biggest issue from a fantasy perspective, but he’s consistent. He’s received either five or six targets in seven of his last nine games. During that stretch, he’s made the most of his opportunities; he’s averaged 3.4 receptions, 60.3 yards, and 0.67 touchdowns per game. While he finished 7th in the league with 16.5 yards per catch, his 17.5 over the past nine would be good for 3rd. If Rollins is able to play, it would set up a tougher matchup, so it’s certainly something to keep an eye on. Either way, Rollins isn’t exactly a shutdown corner and he’s coming off a two-game absence. Gabriel projects as our WR8 this on the two-game slate and his upside makes him an interesting tournament option, especially considering his team has an implied total of 32.25 points in a game that’s expected to be a shootout.

Jordy Nelson remains a long shot to play on Sunday

Broken ribs can be a tough thing to recover from, and it does not look like the two week window will be enough for Nelson to get back on the field. He’s unlikely to take the field Sunday against Atlanta, but could absolutely be back for the Super Bowl given the two week layover the Packers would have from the NFC Championship to the title game. Assuming Nelson sits, Jared Cook would remain far and away the top tight end play on the slate, with Davante Adams, Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison also become far more interesting DFS targets. Allison would be on of the top value plays on the slate with Adams (and Randall Cobb) ranking behind Julio, Brown and Edelman at the WR spot. Adams would be a preferred tournament target over a guy like Edelman, but the Pats receiver is the stronger cash game play. While Cobb isn’t as intriguing as Adams, he also likely won’t be as popular and figures to draw the best match-up among the Packers receivers against Brian Poole in the slot.

Ladarius Green still in league's concussion protocol

It’s looking very much like we won’t see Green again this postseason. His history with concussions was concerning before this season, and things haven’t improved at all in his first year with the Steelers. Green was acting as the next-in-command to Antonio Brown among the receiving corps, and his presence would theoretically make it tougher for the Patriots to heavily attack Brown with double coverage. Jesse James will draw another start and while he’s a good bet to play the large majority of the snaps, his volume is still concerning. You can do worse on a two-game slate if you’re looking to punt the TE spot, however. Jared Cook and Martellus Bennett are still superior options.

New England allowed 3rd-fewest rushing yards per game this season

While game flow may have helped the Patriots hold opponents to 88.6 rushing yards per game, as they were often winning, it wasn’t just that. Football Outsiders ranks them 4th in rush DVOA as a team and their defensive line 11th in adjusted line yards per carry (3.69). Those rankings and statistics will be put to the test on Sunday when Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers visit Foxborough.

Bell has rushed for at least 118 yards in all but one of his past eight games and he averaged over 5.1 yards per carry in all but two of those contests. On Sunday, he rushed for 170 yards on 30 attempts against the Chiefs, but the Chiefs ranked 26th in rush DVOA and their line was 30th with 4.39 adjusted line yards per carry. History repeated itself in a way as Bell rushed for 144 yards against them in his first game of the season. The last time he faced the Patriots he was held to 81 yards on 21 attempts (3.9 ypc). Now the question is whether the Patriots can repeat their success because Pittsburgh will give him the ball. He’s had at least 29 attempts in both playoff games and he’s averaged 27.5 attempts during their eight-game winning streak. The Steelers are 5.5-point dogs in the AFC Championship, though, and Bell was given just 15.5 carries over his four losses this season. Naturally, his receiving volume picked up in turn. Against New England for example, he had ten receptions for 68 yards. Across all four matchups he lost, he averaged 8.25 catches per game. For comparison, that rate dropped to 4.25 during their winning streak. The Patriots rank 20th in receiving running back DVOA. They’re tied with Atlanta for the most receptions allowed to the position (6.59 per game) and they give up the 3rd-most receiving yards to RBs (51.88). If game script goes as expected and New England’s rushing defense holds, Bell could still produce through the air. However, that may not be enough to earn his salary, he’ll need to find the end zone. Unfortunately, the Patriots allowed the fewest points per game this season (15.6), the fewest rushing touchdowns (6), and the 8th-fewest passing touchdowns (21). It won’t be easy. Ty Montgomery, another excellent receiver out of the backfield, has the pleasure of playing Atlanta in a game with a 61-point total. Dion Lewis, who had seven targets in his first outing as the lead back, faces a Pittsburgh defense that’s allowed the 6th-most receiving yards (45.7) and the 3rd-most receiving touchdowns (0.33) per game to RBs. Both backs are markedly cheaper across the industry. Depending on how our ownership projections shape up later this week, fading Bell could be an effective way of differentiating lineups in tournaments on the two-game slate.

Pittsburgh ranks dead last in WR1 DVOA

The Steelers hosted the Patriots in Week 7 this season and lost 27-16 in part due to New England’s number one receiver, Julian Edelman, who caught a season-high nine passes. He only went for 60 yards in that game but at the time, he was in the midst of a slow start to the season. Through the first eight games, he averaged 5.1 receptions and 44.8 yards, which comes out to 8.7 yards per catch, on 7.9 targets per game. Of course, four of those games were without Tom Brady but in the first half of the year, his stats were actually slightly better in the four games without TB12 – he averaged 48.25 yards per game and 9.25 ypc without him and 41.25 yards, 9.65 ypc with him. Edelman’s game against Pittsburgh was the only one of the four where he exceeded 5 receptions and 37 yards. Since the halfway point, including their playoff game, Edelman has had at least five receptions and 73 yards in every single contest and he’s had at least seven catches in all but two of those nine games. His production has increased to 7.1 receptions, 93.5 yards, and 13.1 ypc on 12.1 targets per game. The Brady-Edelman connection is fully operational. The Steelers may have done well against Alex Smith and his pass catchers in the divisional round but their number one receiver is their tight end and, well, they played Alex Smith. The AFC Championship will be a totally different ball game. Now that Brady and Edelman have found their groove, they could really exploit Pittsburgh’s inefficiency against WR1s. The biggest drawback is Edelman’s lack of scoring, he’s only scored three touchdowns this year, which was his lowest mark since 2012. His type of production makes him much more valuable on full PPR sites. However, he could be due for some positive regression on that end as he’s been targeted in the red zone 15 times. Given the dearth of receivers available on a two-game slate, he’ll be a solid option across the board.

Jordy Nelson (ribs) uncertain for Sunday

Nelson said he was feeling better but couldn’t say whether he can play Sunday. Although he was able to workout Monday, coach Mike McCarthy is still unsure if he can practice with the team Wednesday. Without him available against the Cowboys, Aaron Rodgers did Aaron Rodgers things, throwing for 356 yards and a couple of scores. Tight end Jared Cook led the team in targets with 11, hauling in six of them for 104 yards and a touchdown. That may have been a product of Dallas’ defensive strengths and weaknesses as they were much better defending receivers than tight ends this season. They ranked 30th in DVOA against the position whereas Atlanta ranks 11th. Randall Cobb continued to be efficient, catching seven of eight passes, he’s now caught 24 of his past 29 looks. Davante Adams posted a 5/76/0 line on ten opportunities but sprained his ankle in the process, adding to Green Bay’s injury woes. Adams and Nelson will be two important players to track this week. Rodgers will likely sling the ball around once more and accurately predicting his target distribution will be a major factor in the two-game slate this weekend.