DFS Alerts
Lamar Miller returns to practice; expected to play this weekend
Miller has been out several weeks due to injury but is in line to return to action on Wild Card Weekend when the Texans host the Raiders. Outside of Le’Veon Bell, he is arguably the top RB option on the four game slate. He’ll be hard to fit in a lineup filled with stars like Bell and Antonio Brown, but he’s an excellent option with some obvious injury risk attached.
As reported by: Sarah Barshop on Twitter
Russell Wilson averaged 23.08 fantasy points per game when favored by 7.0 points or more this season
Seattle was favored by at least 7.0 points for eight of Wilson’s 16 games this season. While we generally see quarterback production decrease when their teams are big favorites due to game flow, Wilson’s per game average was actually 5.47 points higher in those eight games versus less favorable spreads – he put up 17.61 per game out of this split. Currently, the Seahawks are favored by 8.0 points at home against the Lions. How about when Wilson was favored by 7.0 points or more at home this season? Over six games in that split, he averaged 25.43 fantasy points. Most notably, his completion percentage rose from 49.7% to 76.7% in the split and his touchdown-to-interception ratio was 2.0 to 0.5, as opposed to 0.9 to 0.8. Wilson simply excelled when playing overmatched opponents this season. The icing on the cake: Detroit’s pass defense should be overmatched; they’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. With a huge portion of ownership expected to be concentrated on Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger (and for good reason), Wilson could be a relatively sneaky option this weekend.
As reported by: Bryan Pauquette
Paul Perkins' role expected to grow in playoffs
New York had one of the worst running games this season, averaging the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (88.3). Fortunately, they finally figured out who their best running back is in time for the playoffs: rookie Paul Perkins. He was increasingly involved in the offense during December and even earned a start on New Years Day. It was the first time he had more than 20 carries in a game and he made the most of his opportunity, becoming the first Giants player to rush for 100 yards in a game this season (102). Of course, he had a favorable matchup against the Redskins, who rank 25th in rush DVOA. Green Bay ranks better (14th) but their rushing defense struggled in the second half of the season. Detroit running back Zach Zenner piled up 110 total yards and a rushing touchdown on them, although he only averaged 3.5 ypc. Zenner caught four passes and 41 of his yards came through the air. Perkins has not been nearly as involved in the passing game – he has two receptions in the past five games while Rashad Jennings has 13 in that span – but his role in that area could increase against the Packers. ESPN’s Jordan Raanan believes Perkins, who’s out-touched Jennings 37-32 over the past two weeks, has finally gained the confidence of the coaching staff and expects a bigger workload for the rookie this weekend (and beyond, should they win). Raanan notes that Perkins has improved his blocking, which should enable him to stay on the field for more passing downs. If he’s able to get the extra work, he should be able to produce numbers on Sunday; Green Bay has allowed the second-most receiving yards to running backs over the past four weeks (56.25). On a short slate, Perkins could be a sneaky GPP option in his expanded role.
As reported by: ESPN Other tagged players: Rashad Jennings Mike Tomlin: Ladarius Green (concussion) is "progressing rather well"
Green remains in the concussion protocol but there’s a good chance he plays this weekend. Over his last three games, Green averaged a 4.3/69.0/0.33 line. He had a huge 11-target game, 110-yard against the Giants in Week 13, which highlighted his upside. New York ranks 26th in TE DVOA and their upcoming opponent, Miami, isn’t much better, they rank 21st. Plus, the Dolphins allowed the 7th-most FanDuel points to the position during the regular season. Assuming Green plays, he’ll be one of the best tight ends to target this weekend.
As reported by: Jeremy Fowler Jadeveon Clowney will return for wild card game
Despite missing two games this season, Clowney (elbow, wrist) leads the team with 12 tackles for a loss. Pro Football focus grades the first-time pro bowler as the 7th-best 3-4 OLB and 13th-best edge rusher in the NFL. Fortunately for Connor Cook, Oakland’s offensive line has the lowest adjusted sack rate (ASR) in the league (3.4%), according to Football Outsiders. He still managed to get sacked twice against the Broncos, but their defensive line has the second highest ASR (7.6%). Houston, for comparison, ranks 18th (5.8%). Even so, Cook will be slower to release the ball than Derek Carr, exposing himself to more pressure. Clowney will definitely help the Texans in that regard. Oakland has an implied team total 16.5 points and Houston’s DST will be a solid option.
As reported by: Aaron Wilson Brock Osweiler will start for Texans Saturday
With Tom Savage in the concussion protocol, Houston will roll with Osweiler under center. He actually posted his best QBR of the season (82.7) against the Raiders when they met in Mexico City, but he only managed 243 yards and a single touchdown in that game (and he threw a pick). Under the pressure of the playoffs, it’s doubtful he’ll turn things around this weekend. DeAndre Hopkins came back to life last week, but he faced the horrendous Tennessee secondary. Although Oakland ranks 23rd in pass DVOA, their corners have scored high grades this season. David Amerson and Sean Smith, both of whom will defend Hopkins during the game, have earned at least an 81 from Pro Football Focus. The Raiders-Texans game total is set at 36.5 points and it’s expected to be an ugly game lacking fantasy goodness.
As reported by: Ian Rapoport Connor Cook expected to start for Raiders Saturday
It looks like Matt McGloin’s shoulder injury will prevent him from starting for the Raiders this weekend. Instead, Oakland plans to start rookie Connor Cook, who will have a short week to prepare for the Texans 5th-ranked pass defense. He struggled last week against the Broncos, posting an 11.9 QBR, but he was forced into a tough situation. Not only did he face the Broncos, but the third-string quarterback was running plays he never practiced before. Unfortunately, a person can only learn so much in a single week and Cook will likely struggle to wrap his head around their playbook prior to his first start. Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree take big downgrades in this situation. Houston’s DST will certainly be a popular option, especially with Jadeveon Clowney returning to the lineup.
As reported by: Ian Rapoport Raiders will "see how the week goes" before naming starting quarterback
Both starter Matt McGloin and his replacement, Connor Cook, struggled against the Broncos Sunday. Of course, it’s one of the toughest matchups for quarterbacks and Cook was reportedly running plays he never even practiced before, so neither were in a great spot. Head coach Jack Del Rio wasn’t ready to commit to either guy on Monday, implying that he’ll give both a shot in practice this week. Houston’s pass defense ranks 5th in DVOA; no matter which quarterback Del Rio goes with, they’ll likely struggle. It’s not a great situation for Amari Cooper or Michael Crabtree, both of whom should be avoided in cash games, if not entirely. The Texans have forced a turnover in eight straight games and the Raiders have an implied team total of 16.5 points. Houston’s DST is a solid option.
As reported by: Vic Tafur Other tagged players: Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree C.J. Prosise not expected to play Saturday
Head coach Pete Carroll expressed optimism when discussing Prosise (shoulder), indicating there’s a chance he could return in the playoffs, should Seattle advance. The rookie, who’s missed the past six games, isn’t ready to return for the wild card round. The Seahawks will continue to use Thomas Rawls and Alex Collins. Rawls has really struggled over the past three weeks, rushing 37 times for 56 yards (1.5 ypc) during that stretch. Collins as been more effective, rushing 21 times for 106 yards (5.0 ypc). He’s also caught eight passes in those games while Rawls had two receptions. It’ll be an interesting situation to track during the week as Rawls could potentially lose some playing time this due to his poor performance.
As reported by: Seattle Seahawks Other tagged players: Thomas Rawls, Alex Collins Golden Tate had at least 11.2 PPR points in all but one game after Week 5
Tate had a disappointing start to the regular season until he exploded in Week 6 for 33.8 DraftKings points (his most of the season). Earning his way back into Matt Stafford’s good graces with that performance, he managed a pretty solid floor the rest of the way. Tate had at least six receptions in all but two games during that 11-game stretch, double-digit targets in seven of those contests, and exceeded 100 yards in three. His 13.7% share of the team’s touches is good for 5th among all receivers. The primary issue with his game this season was the lack of touchdowns. Despite 16 red zone targets through Week 16, he had scored three times while teammate Anquan Boldin scored seven touchdowns and led the team with 20 red zone looks. Tate’s red zone usage is the 10th-highest among receivers across the league and 5th among those left in the playoffs. He has a tough matchup in Seattle this weekend, but given his ceiling and consistency, he’s still an exciting option on a small slate. The Lions enter the game as 8-point underdogs, which means Stafford will be throwing quite a bit and Tate is his favorite target by far; he as 31.1% more targets than Detroit’s number two receiver, Marvin Jones.
Texans will announce quarterback decision on Tuesday
It would appear Brock Osweiler is the favorite to get the start for Houston’s wild card game against the Raiders. O’Brien plainly stated he wanted his starter to practice this week and it’s doubtful Tom Savage (concussion) will be able to do that. The head coach also praised Osweiler’s Week 17 performance. He threw for 253 yards, a touchdown, and zero interceptions. However, Tennessee has one of the worst (if not the worst) pass defenses in the league. Although the Raiders rank 23rd in pass DVOA, they will definitely be a tougher opponent. Houston has an implied team total of 20 points, but they’ll likely try to funnel most of their offense through running back Lamar Miller. It’ll be hard to trust Osweiler to do much of anything, especially under the pressure of the playoffs, which in turn hurts the value of DeAndre Hopkins.
As reported by: Aaron Wilson Other tagged players: Tom Savage Lamar Miller expected to return for wild card game
Miller (ankle) spent the last two weeks rehabbing his injury and he’ll be ready for the Raiders on Saturday. Houston is favored by 3.5 points but, not surprisingly, the game has an extremely low total of 36.5 points, which gives them an implied team total of 20.0 points. However, with their severe deficiency at quarterback, the Texans should rely on Miller quite a bit to get those points. Oakland ranks 21st in rush DVOA and 22nd against receiving running backs. Taking full advantage of their weakness, the Chiefs backup running back, Charcandrick West, piled up 116 yards and two receiving touchdowns against them in Week 17. Although Miller only had two receptions against them when they played in Week 11, he could pick up some extra targets this time around. Even if he doesn’t, he was pretty effective against them on the ground, turning 24 carries into 104 yards and a touchdown. Miller will have a secure workload this weekend and is definitely in play for fantasy.
As reported by: Aaron Wilson Packers "hopeful" Randall Cobb can play Sunday
Cobb (ankle) received exactly three targets in Weeks 13 and 14 and after tweaking is ankle in the latter game, received zero in Week 15. The injury has been bothering him ever since, which kept him inactive for the Packers ‘last two games. In his absence, Geronimo Allison has averaged 6.5 targets over the two games Cobb didn’t dress. Against the Lions on New Years day, he turned his opportunities into four receptions, 91 yards, and a touchdown. Should Cobb suit up for their wild card game with the Giants, Allison would take a downgrade, but Cobb wouldn’t be a great fantasy option. He’s become less involved in the offense and New York ranks 4th in pass DVOA. The Giants primary weak spot is defending tight ends, they rank 25th in DVOA against the position. They allowed an injured Jordan Reed to catch five passes for 40 yards and a touchdown in Week 17. Jared Cook will be an interesting tournament option on a small four-game slate. He’s averaged 7.0 targets per game over the past three.
As reported by: Green Bay Packers Other tagged players: Geronimo Allison, Jared Cook Taylor Gabriel and Austin Hooper expected to practice this week
Gabriel (foot) and Hooper (knee) are both expected to play in the Falcons’ next game as well. Atlanta earned a bye, so that won’t be until the divisional round. When healthy, Hooper wasn’t utilized very much; he hasn’t topped three targets since Week 10. With Julio Jones (toe) returning to form, Gabriel had just four targets last game, converting them into three catches for 15 yards. Matt Ryan spreads the ball around a ton and Gabriel will be too low on the totem pole to be a great fantasy option, barring any unforeseen circumstances.
As reported by: Atlanta Falcons Other tagged players: Austin Hooper Ryan Tannehill could play in wild card game Sunday
Coach Adam Gase has not ruled out Tannehill (knee) from returning for their matchup with the Steelers, adding that he’ll know more tomorrow. Gase also confirmed that if Tannehill is healthy, he’ll be the starter. Matt Moore has done well in his place, throwing multiple touchdown passes in all three starts and posting a passer rating of 105.6 on the year. No matter which quarterback gets the start, they’ll probably be throwing quite a bit. The Steelers are currently favored by 10 points.
As reported by: Palm Beach Post Other tagged players: Matt Moore