DFS Alerts
Ryan Tannehill ruled out for Sunday
Tannehill still isn’t practicing and will “definitely not play” this weekend according to beat writer Armando Salguero. This means Matt Moore will be under center for the Phins in Pittsburgh. He’s done well this season; he’s thrown at least two touchdowns in all three starts and posted a 105.6 passer rating. The Steelers defense, which ranks 14th in pass DVOA, will be the toughest he’s faced though. For comparison, the Bills were the highest ranked defense he started against this season and they come in at 21st. Although he should be throwing quite a bit with Miami entering the game as 10-point dogs, Moore isn’t going to be a great fantasy option, he projects as our QB6 on the wild card slate. Through three starts he’s targeted Jarvis Landry the most (22 times). In their finale, Landry picked up 12 targets from Moore and turned them into a 9/76/1 line. Landry would be a better option with Tannehill starting, but he still projects as our top points-per-dollar receiver on DraftKings.
As reported by: Armando Salguero Other tagged players: Matt Moore
Lions may continue to use Zach Zenner as their workhorse
Despite rushing for 64 yards and two touchdowns on ten carries in the first half of Detroit’s Week 16 game with the Cowboys, Jim Bob Cooter only gave Zenner two carries in the second half. The offensive coordinator was firmly against using him as a workhorse back, believing that it wasn’t a sustainable strategy. Zenner managed to change his mind for their final game though, he was on the field for 64 of 66 offensive snaps and was the only running back that played for them. He didn’t let Cooter down either, he converted his 24 touches into 110 yards and a touchdown. As a result, Detroit’s OC is open to using Zenner as the workhorse in the playoffs. It also helps Zenner’s case that Cooter believes Dwayne Washington, whom Zenner supplanted for the starting role, is “still learning to play NFL football,” clearly expressing a lack of trust in the rookie. It appears Zenner will receive another large workload this weekend. Unfortunately, he’s playing Seattle, who rank second in rush DVOA. We’re currently projecting him as our RB8 on the wild card slate. Even so, he’s expected to come with high ownership; 24% on FanDuel and a whopping 47% on DraftKings, where he benefits from the full PPR format and more favorable pricing.
As reported by: Detroit Free Press Other tagged players: Dwayne Washington Pittsburgh allowed 26.37 DraftKings points per game to running backs in regular season, most among all playoff teams
Miami running back Jay Ajayi remembers the Steelers well. The second-year back had his breakout game against them back in Week 6, rushing for 204 yards and two scores. Despite ranking 11th in rush DVOA, Pittsburgh allowed the seventh-most DK points to running backs this season (ninth-most FanDuel points). They continued this trend heading into the playoffs, allowing 26.52 DK points to the position over their final four games. Fortunately for Ajayi, he’s Miami’s workhorse and has a secure workload, meaning he’ll get the vast majority of the fantasy points accrued by their RBs. On the downside, he’s dealing with a shoulder injury. He had X-rays following their final game but said the results were “good.” Although the injury adds a bit of risk, no running back in the NFL is playing at full health by the time the playoffs roll around. Some may be more rested though, like Lamar Miller and Le’Veon Bell. A bigger concern may be the expected game flow as the Dolphins are 10-point underdogs. However, in the two games Miami was given at least 7.0 points after Week 4 (Ajayi became the clear workhorse in Week 5), he averaged 22.3 PPR points. For a larger sample, Miami played seven games as underdogs (given at least 0.5 points) after Week 4 and he put up 18.87 PPR points per game versus 12.26 in the five games they were favored (they didn’t have any “pick’em” games with a 0-point spread). Heading into the weekend, Ajayi projects as our RB3, but we’re projecting his ownership lower than five other backs (Bell, Miller, Zenner, Montgomery, and Murray). Part of that is due to his price, as he’s the second-most expensive back on the wild card slate. This could definitely provide an advantage from a game theory perspective. Given his past success against the Steelers, the fantasy points they allowed running backs to score over a 16-game sample, and the limited RB options to choose from, Ajayi will be a strong play this weekend, especially in tournaments at his projected ownership.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Defense vs. Position tool James Starks and CB Quinten Rollins didn't practice Wednesday
Both players are in the concussion protocol. Neither are expected to be cleared for their game against the Giants this Sunday, although they haven’t been ruled out. Ty Montgomery is expected to start at running back again but Aaron Ripkowski out-snapped him 36-35 – Montgomery only played 47% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps – and out-gained him 76 to 61 in Week 17. He also scored a touchdown while Montgomery did not. Since having what many considered to be a breakout game against the Bears in Week 15 when he gained 163 yards on 18 touches and scored twice, Montgomery has averaged 12 touches per game. He has a tough matchup this weekend against a Giants defense that ranks 3rd in rush DVOA and 3rd in receiving running back DVOA. With an insecure workload in a bad spot, Montgomery will have a low floor. However, on a small slate, he still projects as our RB4 and will be a (risky) tournament option. He’s definitely a better play on DraftKings due to his skills as a receiver and more favorable price tag, but buyer beware. Rollins absence would be another blow to a decimated secondary. Green Bay has even promoted Herb Waters, who was cut from the team as a receiver earlier this season, from the practice squad for depth at cornerback. Green Bay allowed the most FanDuel points (second-most DraftKings points) per game to wide receivers in 2016. Rollins primarily mans the slot when three or more receivers are in – and the Giants used at least three receivers for a league-high 97% of pass plays (per Mike Clay) – so if he can’t go it’ll be a nice upgrade for Sterling Shepard who runs 86% of his routes out of the slot.
As reported by: ESPN Other tagged players: Ty Montgomery, Aaron Ripkowski, Sterling Shepard Dolphins CB Byron Maxwell didn't practice Wednesday
Maxwell had an excellent 85.3 grade from Pro Football Focus before spraining his ankle in Week 15. Maxwell often shadows top receivers and due to his success, Miami ranked 4th in WR1 DVOA this season. His absence would be an obvious upgrade for Antonio Brown, who had a 4/39/0 line against Miami earlier this year. He’d primarily face a combination of Tony Lippett, the Dolphins’ second corner who doesn’t normally shadow receivers, and Xavien Howard, who had a 59.9 PFF grade through Week 16.
As reported by: Jason Cole Malcolm Mitchell didn't practice Wednesday
Mitchell (knee) flashed some serious skill in the latter part of the regular season, earning the trust of Tom Brady in the process. Over a four-game span from Week 11 to Week 14, he averaged a 5.25/65.75/1.0 line. During that stretch, he had a ten target game against the Rams and a two-touchdown game against the Jets. It’s not clear if he’ll be ready for the divisional round. In his place, newly-signed Michael Floyd played 73% of New England’s offensive snaps and caught three of four targets for 36 yards and a touchdown in Week 17. With Danny Amendola getting healthier, it’s uncertain if Floyd would receive the same workload if Mitchell isn’t able to play the next game.
As reported by: Boston Herald Other tagged players: Michael Floyd Danny Amendola returns to practice Wednesday
Amendola has missed the past four weeks due to an ankle injury. New England has a first-round bye and it appears that the extra week gives Amendola a shot to return for their next game. He wasn’t a big factor this season, only exceeding two targets twice after Week 2. Malcolm Mitchell still isn’t practicing though and if he’s not able to return for the divisional round, Amendola could potentially get some extra snaps. Of course, Michael Floyd is now with the team and Amendola could easily be supplanted as the fourth receiver. We’ll have to see how it all shakes out, but as of now, he won’t be a viable fantasy option.
As reported by: Jeff Howe Devin Hester joins Seahawks for playoffs
The NFL’s all-time leader in return touchdowns (20) was cut by Baltimore during the regular season. He averaged 7.2 yards per punt return and 24.5 per kickoff return. He’s expected to replace the injured Tyler Lockett as the primary return man for Seattle’s playoff run. For comparison, Lockett averaged 8.4 yards per punt return and 26.3 yards per kickoff return. Up first, Hester will face the Lions, who had one of the best punt return defenses in the league this season. They only allowed 6.0 yards per return, which is good for 5th in the NFL. They weren’t as good defending kickoffs but were in the top half (15th, 21.5 ypr).
As reported by: Jay Glazer Ladarius Green and Sammie Coates practice in full Wednesday
Green is fully expected to clear concussion protocol in time to play Miami on Sunday. It’s a nice matchup for him. While the Dolphins rank 4th against WR1s and WR2s in DVOA, they rank 21st against tight ends. The Dolphins allowed the 7th-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends this season. Over the three games prior to his concussion he averaged a 4.3/69.0/0.3 line and went over 100 yards against the Giants (26th TE DVOA). He currently projects as our TE2 on the wild card slate. Coates caught two total passes after Week 5 and won’t be a fantasy option this weekend.
As reported by: ESPN Other tagged players: Sammie Coates Jared Cook should be integral for Green Bay against the Giants
The Giants tend to be pretty tough on outside receivers, which doesn’t bode well for Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams. Both are still firmly in play given Aaron Rodgers’ strengths and the pass-happy nature of the Packers, but Jared Cook could end up as the top $/point target on the Green Bay side. Janoris Jenkins is expected back for the Giants, and with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (who was just named Defensive Player of the Week) and Eli Apple healthy, it could be tough sledding for the Green Bay receivers. On the flip side, the Giants have allowed the 8th most receptions and 6th most receiving yards per game to opposing TEs. Cook has seen at least eight targets in two of his last three games, so he’s an excellent pivot off of Nelson/Adams if you want an underowned Aaron Rodgers stack. Even pairing up Rodgers/Cook with Randall Cobb could be viable – the slot receiver racked up a 9-108-0 line on 11 targets in the first meeting between these teams, and he’ll probably have the best WR/CB match-up among the receivers. Jimmy Graham is still the top dog at the TE spot, but Cook sits behind him at #2.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Defense vs. Position Page
Tom Savage ruled out for Saturday
Savage remains in the concussion protocol and won’t be available this weekend. Brock Osweiler will get the start and Brandon Weeden will serve has his back up. While much attention will be given to Houston’s DST, the Raiders DST is worth consideration as well. Osweiler threw the fourth-most interceptions (16) despite being benched at the end of the season and Oakland has forced a turnover in eight straight games – they averaged 1.9 per game during that stretch. As we mentioned earlier, Houston ranks 21st in interceptions. Oakland ranks 9th. Even though the Texans are favored to win, they have a low implied team total of 20 points. Simply put, Houston has one of the worst offenses in the league. They accumulated the fourth-fewest yards and scored the fourth-fewest points. With Houston’s defense expected to be a chalky play, Oakland could fly under the radar with relatively low ownership and make for an interesting contrarian play.
As reported by: John McClain Other tagged players: Las Vegas Raiders Ryan Tannehill not expected to start Sunday
In the words of the old ball coach, Adam Gase, “unless something changes drastically” Tannehill (knee) will not start this weekend. Essentially, Gase said that it isn’t feasible for Miami to start Tannehill against Pittsburgh without a solid week of practice and the quarterback wasn’t able to give it a go on Wednesday. As of now, Matt Moore will be under center for the Phins in Pittsburgh. He’s done well this season; he’s thrown at least two touchdowns in all three starts and posted a 105.6 passer rating. The Steelers pass defense, which ranks 14th in pass DVOA, will be the toughest he’s faced though. For comparison, the Bills were the highest ranked defense he started against this season and they rank 21st. Although he should be throwing quite a bit with Miami entering the game as 10-point dogs, Moore isn’t going to be a great fantasy option, he projects as our QB6 on the wild card slate. Through three starts he’s targeted Jarvis Landry the most (22 times). In their finale, Landry picked up 12 targets from Moore and turned them into a 9/76/1 line. Landry would be a better option with Tannehill starting, but he still projects as our top points-per-dollar receiver on DraftKings.
As reported by: Miami Herald Other tagged players: Matt Moore, Jarvis Landry Randall Cobb will practice today for Packers
Cobb has missed the last few games but will practice today for Green Bay. He could be a sneaky, low-owned GPP option if he is able to go as the Giants will likely put their two best cover corners (Jenkins and DRC) on Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams. When these two teams faced off earlier this season, Cobb had one of his best games of the year with 9 receptions for 100+ receiving yards. His return would be a definite downgrade to the value of the emerging Geronimo Allison.
As reported by: Ian Rapoport on Twitter Other tagged players: Geronimo Allison
Even with Connor Cook starting, the Houston D/ST unit may be worth fading
With Cook making his first career start in the playoffs on the road, expect the Texans D/ST to be the most popular play at the position. There is definitely merit to playing the fade – Houston ranks 24th in sacks, 21st in interceptions and 24th in fumbles recovered. Oakland also allowed the fewest sacks on the year (18), so pivoting to Seattle or Pittsburgh seems like a wise choice in any game format. Both of those defenses rank in the top ten in sacks, and quarterback pressure is a great way to predict defensive touchdowns, which are vital to GPP success. Detroit has allowed the 11th-most sacks on the year with Miami coming in at 23rd. The Packers are also a viable option, as they rank sixth in sacks against turnover prone Eli Manning.
Other tagged players: Houston Texans Connor Cook will start for Raiders this weekend
The Raiders are down to their 3rd string QB, rookie Connor Cook and he will get the start for their wildcard game against the Texans. Cook didn’t show much in college and faces one of the top defenses in the league in Texans. He’s a clear avoid, even on a four game slate, and the Texans DST becomes one of the top options (although they will easily be the highest owned DST so there is some merit to fading in GPPs) on the board.
As reported by: Adam Schefter on Twitter