DFS Alerts

Should be a Perfect Fit for this Golf Course

Hatton was priced over $10,000 nearly a month ago and is now the forgotten man on the PGA Tour. Let’s not forget that he posted six straight top 15 finishes before struggling at the St. Jude Invitational and the PGA Championship. It’s worth noting that his lone missed cut (at the PGA) was solely due to his short game, as he gained five strokes with his ball striking in only two rounds. He has bounced back nicely over the last two events, posting back-to-back top 25s while gaining at least 4.5 strokes tee to green each week. He’s straight off the tee, he’s great with his irons, and he has historically been a good putter on bermuda greens. I love the price point and like his chances of moving up the leaderboard over the course of four rounds.

Loves East Lake and is Incredibly Consistent

Schauffele posted his seventh straight top 25 finish at the BMW Championship last week. He is one of the few golfers in the field that gains strokes in all four facets of his game — off the tee, on approach, around the green, and on the green. While bermuda is his worst putting surface, he clearly doesn’t mind the greens at East Lake. He’s played here three times and has the following finishes — a win, a seventh, and a second. He’s starting seven shots back of Dustin Johnson, but that doesn’t mean that he can’t find his way into the optimal lineup. The key is that he’s only two shots out of fifth place and he can obviously make those up over the course of four rounds. He’s affordable, he’s consistent, and he has plenty of upside at a course that he clearly loves.

Didn't Have to Grind it Out Last Week at the BMW Championship

My strategy this week in my main lineup is to fade Dustin Johnson and target two of the top five golfers in the FedEx Cup standings. This allows me to build a strong lineup all the way through and still have win equity at the top. Simpson is the only golfer in the field that didn’t have to grind it out at Olympia Fields last week. He decided to rest up and get ready for this week, which could be a very profitable strategy. He’s at his best on Par 70 bermuda courses and that’s exactly what we have this week. To win here, you have to hit fairways, gain strokes with your irons, and make putts. This is right up Webb’s alley, so it’s no surprise that he’s played well here in the past. He only has to make up four shots over the course of four days.

Key Value

I am hoping for a low owned play here, though it is very tough to gauge ownership this week. With only 30 golfers in the field, it is very difficult to find a truly contrarian option. It feels like Tyrrell Hatton might be under-owned given his relative struggles of late and his lack of course history, and many DFS players will gravitate toward players that are in better form for their mid-tier values. That is my hope. However, Hatton has a great short game when things are working, and he ranks 22nd on Tour in ball striking and 10th in par four scoring this season. East Lake sets up nicely for his game, and I like him as a contrarian option in a short field. He is also my favorite long shot bet of the week at 100 to 1 odds.

Under-Appreciated Star

Schauffele is about as steady as they come on the PGA Tour. He cranks out top finish after top finish and doesn’t get a ton of national recognition for doing so. In fact, he is currently riding a streak of SEVEN consecutive top 25 finishes. He has 12 top 25 finishes in his last 13 starts. The wins are coming at some point, and Schauffele is likely in store for a monster 2021 season. Every element of his game is super consistent. He ranks 8th on Tour in ball striking. He ranks 5th on Tour in par four scoring. He has finished 1st, 7th, and 2nd in his three trips to East Lake. The form is great. The stats are great. The course history is great. The price is great. What else can we ask for?

Picking Up The Pace Again

Many people may feel that Morikawa is in over his head as a 21 year old playing in his first Tour Championship. Again, I’ll reiterate the fact that he has three (3) career wins, one (1) major championship, and two (2) career missed cuts. He struggled to start the week at Olympia Fields, but he closed with 68-68 to climb from around 50th place to 20th place by the time the week was over. His weekend scores were among the best marks in the field, and he gained almost four strokes from tee to green in those two rounds. It is safe to say that he has shaken off his post-PGA Championship hangover, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if he shows the moxie to come into East Lake and contend. If the ownership ends up trending lower, that makes it even better. Morikawa is already an elite player with his tee to green game, and all he needs is a steady short game week in order to contend.

Great Option At The Top

Last week’s finish was truly some epic golf. After Dustin Johnson drained a 43 foot birdie on the 72nd hole to send the BMW Championship into a playoff, Jon Rahm responded with a 66 footer of his own on the first playoff hole. Talk about a finish! Dustin Johnson would be the easy choice as the best golfer on the board this week, but Rahm is my pick at the top. Sure, he starts two strokes behind DJ, but Rahm also comes in at a reasonable price discount for that two shot difference. Two strokes is not a massive difference over four rounds of golf. Rahm is a streaky golfer who should be full of confidence after the epic playoff win at Olympia Fields, and Rahm has finished inside the top 12 in each of his three trips to East Lake. He ranks third on Tour in ball striking and should definitely be in the mix for hsi first ever FedEx Cup trophy. I believe he will be the most motivated golfer in the field this week.

Ten Minutes to roster lock at The BMW Championship, no major news to report

With just a little over ten minutes to roster lock, there is no major news to report of the first round of The BMW Championship. Despite other sports and athletes protesting and boycotting games, the tour is ready to go as scheduled. Dustin Johnson will enter the week as the odd’s on favorite to win. With a score of 30 under at last week’s Northern Trust Johnson won the first leg of the playoffs by an impressive 11 shots. ResultsDB will be up and running shortly after lock. Good luck this week Grinders!!!

Alex Noren looks to ride the hot hand

Alex Noren will need a bit more magic if he plans to make his first-ever trip to East Lake next week. Looking to build on 4 straight top 22 or better finishes, Noren enters the BMW Championship in the 47th position in this year’s FedEx Cup race. Momentum is everything at this point of the season, and Noren is simply playing his best golf of the year at the right time. For those who don’t follow the world of golf closely, it’s easy to overlook the pedigree of this former Oklahoma State Cowboy. Playing more on the PGA Tour over the last few years has been an adjustment of sorts for Noren but with 10 European victories under his belt, this top 90 player in the world knows what it takes to compete at the highest level of professional golf.

Play this golfer over the normal public favorites

Patrick Reed – With smaller fields and tighter pricing we typically see a spread in ownership, so it’s no surprise to see all these guys in the same range as Reed come in around 10-15%. I am going with Reed over the normal public favorites of Cantlay and Finau and it all comes down to win equity. While Cantlay and Finau have one before on Tour, they seem to be more of the “DFS Darlings” than the closers we sought after. Finau is likely to score more than Cantlay on any given week but he can also have his ups and downs. With Reed, I get a proven winner (Masters/WGCs/Playoff events etc.) and a guy with a great all-around game, including a solid around-the-green game which I mentioned above. He’s also worked on his length and can be really good on faster greens like we have here.

Patrick Reed

With smaller fields and tighter pricing we typically see a spread in ownership, so it’s no surprise to see all these guys in the same range as Reed come in around 10-15%. I am going with Reed over the normal public favorites of Cantlay and Finau and it all comes down to win equity. While Cantlay and Finau have one before on Tour, they seem to be more of the “DFS Darlings” than the closers we sought after. Finau is likely to score more than Cantlay on any given week but he can also have his ups and downs. With Reed, I get a proven winner (Masters/WGCs/Playoff events etc.) and a guy with a great all-around game, including a solid around-the-green game which I mentioned above. He’s also worked on his length and can be really good on faster greens like we have here.

Patrick Reed

With smaller fields and tighter pricing we typically see a spread in ownership, so it’s no surprise to see all these guys in the same range as Reed come in around 10-15%. I am going with Reed over the normal public favorites of Cantlay and Finau and it all comes down to win equity. While Cantlay and Finau have one before on Tour, they seem to be more of the “DFS Darlings” than the closers we sought after. Finau is likely to score more than Cantlay on any given week but he can also have his ups and downs. With Reed, I get a proven winner (Masters/WGCs/Playoff events etc.) and a guy with a great all-around game, including a solid around-the-green game which I mentioned above. He’s also worked on his length and can be really good on faster greens like we have here.

Patrick Reed – With smaller fields and tighter pricing we typically see a spread in ownership, so it’s no surprise to see all these guys in the same range as Reed come in around 10-15%. I am going with Reed over the normal public favorites of Cantlay and Finau and it all comes down to win equity. While Cantlay and Finau have one before on Tour, they seem to be more of the “DFS Darlings” than the closers we sought after. Finau is likely to score more than Cantlay on any given week but he can also have his ups and downs. With Reed, I get a proven winner (Masters/WGCs/Playoff events etc.) and a guy with a great all-around game, including a solid around-the-green game which I mentioned above. He’s also worked on his length and can be really good on faster greens like we have here.

Obvious Value

Recent form? Check. Steele has made six straight cuts since the restart Total driving? Check. Steele ranks 23rd in that statistic. Ball striking? Check. Steele ranks 29th in that statistic. Par Four scoring? Check. Steele ranks 19th in that statistic. Super affordable DFS price tag? Check. Steele is priced near the minimum on every site. I’ll keep it as simple as that – Steele feels like a very obvious value play this week, and I would be comfortable playing him in any format.

Risk/Reward GPP Appeal

This could be one of the first times that I have ever written up Louis Oosthuizen in this space. Like many others, I am often afraid of the withdrawal risk whenever Oosty tees it up. While it is always a bit of a concern, he hasn’t withdrawn in the middle of a tournament in quite some time (knock on wood). He is also playing with house money here after being the last golfer to make it into the BMW Championship at #70 in the standings. He was solid off the tee last week and had a good short game working. While he doesn’t stand out in any one area, he’s solid throughout his bag, and the ownership will be low as usual. There’s plenty of leverage in a no cut event with golfers like this, and that makes Oosthuizen a super appealing GPP risk/reward option.