10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, April 26th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, April 26th.
1. Over his last two starts, James Paxton has done something only one other Yankee in history (David Cone, 1998) has done: He’s struck out 12 batters in back-to-back games. After a rocky first three starts in Yankee pinstripes in which he allowed a combined 10 combined earned runs to the Orioles and Astros, Paxton has been a K machine in his past two outings. Paxton’s pitch mix is evolving this year, as he’s replaced some curveballs – his worst pitch last year with a pVAL of just 1.0 – with more cutters. His cutter, by contrast, has generated the third-most whiffs per swing of any pitcher who has thrown at least 50 cutters. On Friday, he gets a best-case-scenario matchup in pitcher-friendly Oracle Park against the woeful Giants offense that ranks 30th in team wOBA (.267) and 29th in wRC+ (65).
But wait. There’s more…
One of the only knocks on Paxton is that he often runs up his pitch count, preventing him from pitching deep into games. That’s been true this year as well, as he’s averaging fewer than six innings per start. This shouldn’t be a problem against the Giants. As a team, the Giants swing at the second-highest rate in MLB (48.8%), and they swing outside the zone at the second-highest rate, as well (33.9%). This has led to their owning the lowest team walk rate in MLB at 6.5 percent. Even on a day crowded with great pitching options, Paxton may represents the best combination of matchup, price, and upside.
2. May, only because Max Scherzer is on this slate, and he’s priced all the way down to $10,400 at DraftKings. This is a pitcher we’ve been happy to pay as much as $14,500 for last year, and in fact, the last time he’s been priced this low was way back on October 9, 2017. Apart from a minor injury (Scherzer left his last start early with a mild rib injury after dodging a line drive), it’s hard to fathom what Scherzer has done to be priced this low, because even at his advancing age, the dude is still getting it done. Consider this: Entering this season, there had been 14 seasons in MLB history where a pitcher aged 30 or over has recorded 30 percent strikeouts with a sub-3.00 ERA. Scherzer is responsible for three of those seasons (and check out Randy Johnson, just monopolizing the list with seven of the 14).
At FanDuel, where Scherzer is $1,300 more expensive than Paxton, it’s a tougher call. But at two-pitcher sites, it may even be viable to fit in both Scherzer and Paxton, particularly if some value opens up throughout the day (looking at you, Stevie Wilkerson and your $2,200 DK salary…).
3. It’s time for a Collin McHugh Slider Update: He’s now throwing the pitch 43.2 percent of the time, up from 23.8 percent in 2018; that’s the third-most of any pitcher in MLB (min. 250 pitches), trailing only Jhoulys Chacin and Ervin Santana. Its spin rate of 2792 RPM is sixth-highest in MLB, and hitters are whiffing 42.9 percent of the time against the pitch. It’s an elite pitch, and he’s throwing it all the time. It’s happening: McHugh is becoming the next in a long line of pitchers the Astros have converted into elite strikeout arms. He got lit up against the Rangers in his last start, but he’s priced accordingly at just $8,000 at DraftKings. And there’s plenty to suggest that start was the exception rather than the rule for McHugh. Even with that start, just 20.3 percent of batted balls he’s allowed have been hit at 95 mph or greater; that’s the lowest rate in MLB. Tyler Stafford at Baseball Prospectus made the case that the issue in that start was McHugh’s location of the pitch, which certainly seems correctable. Invest now while McHugh continues to be priced down.
4. Over his last three starts dating back to last year, Jerad Eickhoff has struck out 14.8 batters per nine innings; the only pitcher (min. 13 IP) with a higher mark over that span is Josh Hader (17.0 K/9). Now, before you laugh, or throw things at your computer, or (worst of all) close the page, let’s be real: This is a comically small sample size. But Eickhoff has been legitimately impressive over this stretch, which began after he returned from missing almost all of 2018 with injury. Striking out 8, 6, and 8 batters and generating 15.5 percent swinging strikes in not-so-easy matchups (Braves, Mets, and Rockies in Coors) is nothing to sneeze at, particularly given that Eickhoff was a promising pitcher before his injury. The real selling point for Eickhoff on Friday, though, is the matchup with the Marlins. Miami comes in with a low implied total of 3.60 runs, sixth-lowest on the slate. As the 14th (DraftKings) and 15th (FanDuel) most expensive pitcher on the slate, Eickhoff is intriguing if you want to spend up on bats in tournaments.
5. Robbie Ray has fallen behind to 3-0 against 12 percent of the batters he’s faced this season; that’s the highest rate of any pitcher in MLB. Last year, Ray got into 3-0 counts 6.8 percent of the time, the second-highest rate of any pitcher in MLB. Giving away pitches is just sort of Ray’s thing, and it’s why the Cubs represent an awful matchup for him. The Cubs walk at an 11.1 percent rate, the second-highest in MLB. They’re a patient, disciplined team (outside of Javier Baez, who wants to swing so bad he will literally throw his bat at balls he can’t reach), and they should be able to push Ray’s pitch count, limiting his ability to go deep into the game. He’s an easy fade on a day loaded with pitching.
6. Miles Mikolas has a 12.2 percent strikeout rate; that ranks 90th out of 90 qualified starters at FanGraphs. His 5.22 SIERA ranks 83rd. He’s allowed five home runs already after only allowing 16 all last year. He doesn’t look like the same pitcher as last year, which makes the Reds bats interesting options, especially at their DraftKings price tags. Joey Votto, in particular, seems underpriced at just $3,800. Votto hasn’t done much this season, but he’s added nearly 17 percentage points onto his fly ball rate (31.1% in 2018; 48.0% in 2019), which means the power could come at any time. If you want to pay up at pitching, you’ll have to go cheap somewhere, and a hitter as skilled as Votto simply shouldn’t come this cheaply.
7. The last time Freddie Freeman hit below .298 against righties was 2012. Let’s add some context:
— In 2012, Mike Trout won the AL Rookie of the Year award and Bryce Harper won the NL Rookie of the Year award.
— In 2012, R.A. Dickey won the NL Cy Young award.
— In 2012, the Baltimore Orioles won 93 games.
— In 2012, I was still in my 20s, and my beard was free of gray hairs (queue existential crisis where your author grapples with feelings of his impending mortality…)
Okay, we’re back. Freeman is one of the steadiest, most consistent hitters in baseball, and he’s in a great matchup against Antonio Senzatela, who has long been a mediocre arm against lefties (career .334 wOBA). Freeman likely won’t make anyone’s list of “must-play” hitters today, but for cash games, few hitters can match Freeman’s high floor. The Braves shouldn’t be mega-popular, but their 4.75 implied run total is fourth-highest on the slate, which is why I love the idea of a Braves mini-stack with Freeman and some combination of Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, or…
8. Josh Donaldson, who, when he hits the ball in the air, has an average exit velocity of 100.3 mph this year; the only player who has hit fly balls and line drives harder is Joey Gallo (102.7 mph). Donaldson has yet to fully find his power stroke as a member of the Braves, but this is a great hitter who is crushing the ball right now. Unlike Freeman, Donaldson does not have the platoon advantage, but Senzatela has actually been more vulnerable to righty power throughout this career (1.19 HR/9 vs. RHBs for his career; 0.99 HR/9 vs. LHBs). His price tag across the industry is not prohibitive at all, and though there’s no need to go with Donaldson in cash, he’s a fantastic GPP play in a solid matchup.
9. April isn’t over just yet, but at the moment, Cody Bellinger has a .426 average, 12 home runs, and 4 stolen bases. If he can keep the average above .400 by month’s end, he’ll be just one of five players in history to post a .400 average, 12 homers, and 4 steals in any month. The players he joins on the list are staggering. Take a look:
(On an “interesting” rather than “helpful” note: Babe Ruth did it twice in 1920! Unbelievable). Bellinger is having an MVP-caliber season, which means he won’t come cheap. While the matchup against Chris Archer is a bit scary, it should lead to low ownership on Bellinger in tournaments. And here’s the thing: It’s not even that bad of a matchup for Bellinger. Throughout his career, he’s feasted on sliders (Archer’s bread and butter pitch). Since Bellinger debuted in 2017, there have been 389 hitters with at least 50 batted balls against sliders; Bellinger’s .344 ISO against the pitch ranks first. It’s a tournament-only play, for sure, but it’s a play with real upside, and it should be fairly sneaky.
10. Nelson Cruz has posted a HR/FB rate of 20 percent or better in each of the past seasons prior to 2019 (and in fact, he’s the only player to post six such seasons over that span); this year, his HR/FB rate stands at 14.3 percent. That number will rise. How do I know? Because most of his underlying power numbers are still stellar. His average hit distance is 235 feet, seventh-best in MLB. His average exit velocity is 96.1 mph, third-best in MLB. A power surge is coming, and it could begin today in a plus matchup against Orioles right-hander Alex Cobb, who has allowed an almost impossible-to-believe five home runs through his first 8 1/3 innings pitched this year. At FanDuel in particular, Cruz is criminally underpriced at just $3,500.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Tuesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to leave a question or comment down below!