10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, July 27th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, July 27th.
Friday, July 27th
1. In each of his last five starts, Chris Sale has recorded nine strikeouts while walking one or fewer and allowing one or fewer earned run; prior to Sale’s five-game streak, no pitcher in MLB history had ever recorded more than three such games in a row. Sale is simply on another level, and he’s making history with each passing start. The scary part about all of this is that he’s getting better. Check out his average fastball velocity by month this year:
March/April – 92.7
May – 95.0
June – 96.4
July – 96.7
Not only is he throwing harder, but he’s trying to get strikeouts. While there was a period where Sale experimented with “pitching to contact” over the last few years, he’s set career highs in sliders in both June (38.9%) and July (42.9%). On Friday, Sale is in an ideal matchup against a Twins team whose projected starting lineup is atrocious against lefties with just a .283 wOBA and .111 ISO. On DraftKings, where Sale is priced below fellow ace Max Scherzer, Sale is a no-brainer. On FanDuel, where Sale is $1,300 more expensive, there’s a conversation to be had. But even there, Sale is the preferred play.
2. The case for fading Max Scherzer on Friday:
— The otherworldly strikeouts have, at the moment disappeared. Over his past five games, Scherzer has a 20.9 percent strikeout rate, a figure lower than the K rates of pitchers like Wei-Yin Chen, Pablo Lopez, and Jhoulys Chacin over that same span.
— For whatever reason, this matchup has given him fits. In two matchups with the Marlins this season, he’s combined for 23.9 DraftKings points. For context, he’s exceeded 23.9 DraftKings points in 14 of his 19 non-Marlins starts this year.
— Chris Sale is on this slate. Enough said.
The case for rostering Max Scherzer on Friday:
— With Chris Sale doing unreal things on the mound, this is a definite #GameTheory spot. Max figures to see much lower ownership than is typical given his skill set.
— After being embarrassed by the Marlins twice this year, this is a definite #Revenge spot for Max. I don’t know if you’ve seen him, but he can get a little angry.
— It’s his birthday! Scherzer turns 34 on Friday (and for a harsh dose of reality, he was born in 1984, the same year as the author of this post…), and dominated in #BirthdayNarrative spots, striking out 9, 7, and 8 batters in three starts.
3. Over his last two starts, Chris Archer has posted a 19.6 percent swinging strike rate; it’s the second-highest mark of any two-game stretch in his career (19.9% over two games in July 2015). Against the Twins and the Marlins, he’s struck out 20 and walked just one over the last two. Now, “two-game stretch” is an important qualifier, because, you know…it’s two games. But Archer has shown elite strikeout stuff throughout his career, so this isn’t a total fluke. Archer’s struggles on the road have been well documented (but in case you’re new here, he’s got a 3.16 ERA at home against a 4.50 ERA on the road since 2015). His matchup against the hapless Orioles, though, gives little reason for concern. Baltimore tends to roll out righty-heavy lineups, and Archer has a stellar 29.0 percent strikeouts and just a .307 wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters. On an even more granular level, the Orioles have only one hitter (Adam Jones) with a wOBA above .283 against sliders this year (the slider being Archer’s best weapon). At $9,500 at DraftKings, Archer is no longer discounted, but he offers perhaps the highest upside on the slate outside of Sale and Scherzer.
4. In eight starts against the Detroit Tigers since 2017, Carlos Carrasco has a 1.95 ERA and a .590 OPS. He’s had the Tigers’ number over the past couple seasons, and the current version of the Tigers is abysmal against righties, posting an MLB-low 78 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Carrasco’s hefty price tag at DraftKings ($11,400) means he should be very low owned, but if you’re having trouble fitting in Sale or Scherzer in tournaments, he provides massive upside at what should be a fraction of the ownership.
5. Kyle Freeland has 24 career starts at Coors Field; he’s allowed more than three earned runs in just three of those 24 starts. He’s conceded fewer than a hit per inning in 12 of those 24 starts. He’s posted a 3.38 ERA in those 24 starts, which is the best ever for any pitcher with at least a dozen starts in Coors. Sure, the .293 BABIP at Coors suggests regression, but Freeland has learned the value of keeping the ball on the ground in his home park (54.2% career ground ball rate at Coors; 47.4% on the road), and he’s been a master of limiting hard hits, with just a 30.1 percent hard-hit rate at home for his career. It’s been fun going all-in on the A’s over the past week, but I’m pulling back a bit with Freeland on the mound. I would be much more apt to attack Sean Manaea with Rockies righties, as Manaea has been incredibly lucky against right-handers this year with a .220 wOBA despite 41.6 percent hard hits.
6. Luke Weaver has faced the Cubs four times since the start of 2017; he’s allowed more earned runs than he has strikeouts in each of those four games, and his 10.89 ERA against the Cubs is the highest ever for a player who has made at least five career starts against the Cubs. The Cubs have the ability to get very left-handed, making them an intriguing low-owned stack for Friday. At the very least, Anthony Rizzo, who hit a game-winning homer and continues to mash from the leadoff slot (.426/.525/.702 slash line this season), makes for a fantastic cash game play at a reasonable $4,500 at DraftKings.
7. Over the past week, Mike Trout scored 20+ DraftKings points in a game in the following ways:
— Homered twice and doubled in a game, leading to 41 DraftKings points, his second game this year of 40+ points.
— Notched a “jack and a bag” (home run + steal) on the way to 28 DraftKings points. He’s got six such games this season, while no other player has more than three.
— Posted 20 DraftKings points despite not recording a hit. He’s the only player this year to do that in a game.
Trout is nearly always the best play on a slate given that he can score points in so many ways. That remains true on Friday, as he’ll square off against Wade LeBlanc. LeBlanc has been effective against righties this year (.279 wOBA allowed), but that’s largely anchored by an unsustainable .257 BABIP. The real selling point on Trout on Friday, though, is his ownership; he simply doesn’t fit into lineups easily given the pitching and Coors Field bats that are available, which makes him one of the top tournament plays on the board.
8. Curtis Granderson has a .456 wOBA on four-seam fastballs this year; that ranks 17th in MLB, just between Mookie Betts (.457) and Matt Carpenter (.456). Granderson is a flawed player in his advanced age, but he can still get around on a fastball, and Reynaldo Lopez throws them in bunches, 59.3 percent of the time, in fact. Granderson should occupy the top spot in the order for the Blue Jays, and at $3,700, he’s an excellent source of value on a slate where it’s sorely needed.
9. Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. has at least two hits in eight consecutive games; that’s the longest streak of multi-hit games by any hitter in 2018 and the longest by a Blue Jays hitter since Tony Fernandez in June of 1986 (nine straight games of 2+ hits). If he’s slotted second in the order (where he’s slashed .393/.433/.571), he makes for an excellent salary saver at just $3,500, especially when paired with Granderson.
10. Over the past two weeks, Salvador Perez has eight barrels; that’s third-most in MLB, trailing only Matt Carpenter (9) and Khris Davis (9). Perez was scuffling for a bit, posting a .202 wOBA and a wRC+ of 19 in the month of June. This month, though, he’s been raking, and he gets a massive park upgrade and the platoon advantage against C.C. Sabathia on Friday. Catcher is always a tough spot to fill in tournaments, but Perez should see very little ownership at $4,100 on DraftKings, making him an interesting one-off with upside for GPPs.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Wednesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!